Opinion polling for the 2008 Canadian federal election explained

Polls leading up to the 2008 Canadian federal election.

Polls

The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events.

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Source	CPC	LPC	NDP	BQ	GPC
Election 2008	October 14, 2008	HTML	37.6	26.2	18.2	10.0	6.8
Asking Canadians^[1]	October 13, 2008		HTML		38.0	22.6	22.6	9.5	7.1
	October 13, 2008		HTML		34.8	26.4	19.4	9.8	9.6
	October 13, 2008		PDF		37	27	20	9	7
	October 12, 2008		PDF		34.2	26.7	21.4	9.5	8.2
	October 12, 2008		HTML		34	26	18	10	11
	October 12, 2008		PDF		34	25	19	11	9
Strategic Counsel	October 11, 2008		HTML		33	28	18	10	11
	October 11, 2008		PDF		33	27	22	10	9
	October 11, 2008		PDF		35	26	18	10	9
	October 11, 2008		HTML		34	27	18	10	11
Strategic Counsel	October 10, 2008		HTML		35	28	19	9	9
	October 10, 2008		PDF		35	25	18	9	11
	October 10, 2008		PDF		32	28	22	10	8
	October 10, 2008		PDF		38	28	19	9	6
	October 10, 2008		HTML		34	26	19	10	11
	October 9, 2008		HTML		34	29	18	9	8
Segma	October 9, 2008	PDF		35	23	21	10	10
Nanos Research	October 9, 2008	PDF		33	27	22	10	8
	October 9, 2008		PDF		34	26	18	9	12
	October 9, 2008		HTML		36	24	19	10	11
Nanos Research	October 8, 2008	PDF		33	29	20	10	7
	October 8, 2008		PDF		32	27	19	8	12
	October 8, 2008		HTML		35	24	20	10	11
Nanos Research	October 7, 2008	PDF		33	29	20	11	7
	October 7, 2008		PDF		35	27	18	9	10
	October 7, 2008		PDF		31	27	20	8	12
	October 7, 2008		HTML		34	25	20	10	11
	October 6, 2008		PDF		31	26	21	8	13
Nanos Research	October 6, 2008	PDF		34	31	18	11	6
	October 6, 2008		HTML		33	26	19	10	12
	October 5, 2008		PDF		32	25	21	8	12
Nanos Research	October 5, 2008	PDF		34	29	20	11	6
	October 5, 2008		HTML		35	25	19	10	10
	October 4, 2008		PDF		34	24	20	8	13
Nanos Research	October 4, 2008	PDF		34	30	19	10	7
	October 4, 2008		HTML		36	25	18	10	10
	October 3, 2008		PDF		40	25	19	11	6
	October 3, 2008		PDF		35	22	20	9	13
Nanos Research	October 3, 2008	PDF		35	28	19	10	8
	October 3, 2008		HTML		36	25	19	10	10
	October 2, 2008		HTML		37	23	19	11	10
	October 2, 2008		PDF		37	22	18	9	12
Nanos Research	October 2, 2008	PDF		35	30	18	10	9
	October 2, 2008		HTML		36	24	19	10	11
	October 1, 2008		PDF		36	23	18	9	12
Nanos Research	October 1, 2008	PDF		37	26	19	10	8
	October 1, 2008		HTML		34	25	19	10	11
	September 30, 2008		PDF		36	24	17	10	11
Nanos Research	September 30, 2008	PDF		36	26	20	10	9
	September 30, 2008		HTML		34	25	20	10	11
Strategic Counsel	September 29, 2008		HTML		39	24	19	10	9
	September 29, 2008		PDF		36	26	18	9	11
Nanos Research	September 29, 2008	PDF		37	26	20	10	8
	September 29, 2008		HTML		34	27	19	9	10
	September 28, 2008		PDF		36	26	19	8	9
Nanos Research	September 28, 2008	PDF		36	26	20	9	9
	September 28, 2008		HTML		34	26	20	10	10
Nanos Research	September 27, 2008	PDF		36	27	19	9	9
	September 27, 2008		PDF		36	25	19	9	9
Nanos Research	September 26, 2008	PDF		39	25	19	8	9
	September 26, 2008		PDF		38	23	19	9	9
	September 25, 2008		PDF		40	21	21	10	7
	September 25, 2008		HTML		39	23	18	9	11
Nanos Research	September 25, 2008	PDF		39	24	19	9	8
	September 25, 2008		PDF		37	24	18	9	10
	September 25, 2008		HTML		35	25	20	10	10
Nanos Research	September 24, 2008	PDF		40	25	19	9	8
	September 24, 2008		HTML		36	25	19	10	11
	September 24, 2008		HTML		36	23	17	9	12
	September 23, 2008		HTML		37	24	19	9	11
	September 23, 2008		PDF		37	24	16	9	12
Nanos Research	September 23, 2008	PDF		37	26	21	9	7
	September 22, 2008		HTML		36	25	19	8	12
Nanos Research	September 22, 2008	PDF		38	27	21	8	6
	September 22, 2008		HTML		37	24	17	8	11
	September 21, 2008		HTML		37	24	19	8	12
Nanos Research	September 21, 2008	PDF		35	30	22	7	6
	September 21, 2008		PDF		38	23	17	8	12
Nanos Research	September 20, 2008	PDF		36	31	20	7	7
	September 20, 2008		PDF		39	23	17	8	11
Nanos Research	September 19, 2008	PDF		38	29	18	7	7
	September 19, 2008		PDF		38	23	17	8	12
	September 18, 2008		PDF		38	24	19	9	10
	September 18, 2008		HTML		40	27	15	8	10
	September 18, 2008		HTML		36	25	18	8	13
Nanos Research	September 18, 2008	PDF		39	28	18	7	7
	September 18, 2008		PDF		38	25	15	8	12
Nanos Research	September 17, 2008	PDF		39	30	18	7	6
	September 17, 2008		PDF		36	27	16	8	11
	September 17, 2008		HTML		38	24	18	8	12
Nanos Research	September 16, 2008	PDF		38	31	17	7	7
	September 16, 2008		PDF		38	28	15	8	10
	September 16, 2008		HTML		38	24	19	8	11
Nanos Research	September 15, 2008	PDF		38	31	17	6	8
	September 15, 2008		PDF		38	27	16	8	10
	September 15, 2008		HTML		38	23	19	9	11
Segma	September 15, 2008		PDF		42	23	16	7	10
Nanos Research	September 14, 2008	PDF		37	31	18	6	9
	September 14, 2008		PDF		38	27	16	8	9
	September 14, 2008		HTML		35	25	19	9	11
	September 13, 2008		HTML		38	29	13	8	11
	September 13, 2008		PDF		40	26	15	8	9
	September 13, 2008		PDF		38	30	17	6	9
	September 12, 2008		PDF		39	23	18	9	10
	September 12, 2008		PDF		38	30	15	9	9
	September 11, 2008		HTML		36	26	19	8	11
	September 11, 2008		HTML		38	29	13	8	11
	September 11, 2008		HTML		38	31	14	9	9
	September 11, 2008		HTML		41	26	14	8	9
	September 10, 2008		HTML		37	32	13	9	9
	September 9, 2008		HTML		37	26	19	8	10
	September 9, 2008		PDF		38	24	21	9	7
	September 8, 2008		PDF		36	28	15	9	9
Segma	September 6, 2008		PDF		43	25	15	8	7
	September 4, 2008		HTML		38	26	15	10	11
	September 3, 2008		HTML		37	24	19	6	10
	September 2, 2008		HTML		38	28	19	8	7
Strategic Counsel	August 31, 2008		PDF		37	29	17	8	9
	August 28, 2008		HTML		34	31	14	-	10
	August 28, 2008		PDF		36	28	18	9	8
	August 28, 2008		HTML		33	31	16	9	10
	August 27, 2008		PDF	33		35	17	8	7
	August 24, 2008		PDF	33		34	15	7	9
	August 14, 2008		HTML		36	30	14	9	10
	August 10, 2008		PDF	32		33	15	6	13
	July 31, 2008		HTML		34	30	14	9	11
	July 30, 2008		PDF		35	30	17	9	8
	July 10, 2008		HTML		33	32	13	11	10
	July 5, 2008		HTML		35	30	17	10	8
	June 29, 2008		PDF	30		31	16	10	12
	June 24, 2008		PDF		33	30	19	9	7
Strategic Counsel	June 9, 2008		HTML		32	30	18	10	10
	June 8, 2008		HTML		32	31	15	6	12
	May 29, 2008		HTML		36	29	14	9	11
	May 19, 2008		HTML		34	27	18	11	8
	May 11, 2008		PDF	33	34	15	11	8
Strategic Counsel	May 11, 2008		HTML		34	31	16	9	10
	May 8, 2008		HTML		35	32	14	-	9
	May 1, 2008		HTML		34	29	17	-	11
	April 23, 2008		PDF		33	30	20	8	8
	April 21, 2008		HTML	32		33	14	-	-
	April 13, 2008		HTML	30		33	16	9	11
Strategic Counsel	April 13, 2008		HTML		36	30	15	8	10
	April 10, 2008		HTML		35	30	16	-	10
	April 9, 2008		HTML		36	30	15	9	9
	April 9, 2008		PDF		36	36	14	8	6
	April 7, 2008		HTML		35	28	17	13	7
	April 6, 2008		HTML	31		32	15	9	12
	March 30, 2008				32	30	13	9	12
	March 28, 2008		HTML		36	26	18	9	9
	March 20, 2008		HTML		35	33	13	10	8
	March 16, 2008		HTML		32	32	17	9	8
Strategic Counsel	March 16, 2008		HTML		38	27	14	10	12
	March 6, 2008		HTML		35	31	15	9	9
	March 2, 2008		HTML		31	30	17	8	13
	March 2, 2008		HTML		34	28	18	10	9
	February 20, 2008		PDF		34	34	14	10	8
	February 18, 2008		HTML		34	31	17	9	8
	February 17, 2008		PDF		35	33	13	8	9
Strategic Counsel	February 17, 2008		HTML		39	27	12	10	12
	February 14, 2008		HTML		36	29	13	9	10
	February 10, 2008		PDF		37	32	16	8	7
	February 4, 2008		PDF	31		33	19	10	8
	January 31, 2008		HTML		33	33	18	8	8
	January 27, 2008		HTML	29		32	16	9	12
	January 24, 2008		HTML		37	29	14	-	10
Strategic Counsel	January 13, 2008		PDF		36	30	14	11	10
	January 10, 2008		HTML	33		35	13	9	9
	January 6, 2008		PDF		37	30	13	10	9
	January 3, 2008		HTML		36	22	17	13	7
	December 20, 2007		HTML		35	33	15	8	8
	December 17, 2007		HTML	30		32	15	11	12
	December 14, 2007		PDF		33	28	17	10	10
Strategic Counsel	December 9, 2007		PDF		32	29	16	10	13
	December 6, 2007		HTML		35	29	16	10	9
	December 2, 2007		HTML		36	28	17	8	11
	November 22, 2007		HTML		39	29	15	8	8
	November 19, 2007		PDF		36	28	17	8	9
Strategic Counsel	November 13, 2007		PDF		34	31	16	11	8
	November 12, 2007				33	29	17	8	12
Strategic Counsel	November 11, 2007		PDF		32	32	12	11	13
	November 8, 2007		PDF		35	34	17	9	6
	November 8, 2007		HTML		42	28	15	8	7
	November 1, 2007		HTML		39	28	13	12	7
	October 29, 2007		HTML		33	29	17	9	10
	October 25, 2007		HTML		39	27	17	9	8
	October 18, 2007		HTML		36	25	19	10	9
	October 18, 2007		HTML		40	27	14	9	8
	October 17, 2007		HTML		34	29	17	9	9
	October 14, 2007		HTML		33	29	19	7	11
Strategic Counsel	October 14, 2007		HTML		34	29	15	10	12
	October 13, 2007		HTML		40	28	16	8	7
	October 9, 2007		HTML		35	28	17	8	10
	October 3, 2007		HTML		33	31	16	7	10
	September 18, 2007		HTML		32	29	17	5	14
	August 23, 2007		HTML		33	29	19	9	9
	August 14, 2007		PDF		36	33	13	10	8
Strategic Counsel	August 12, 2007		PDF		33	33	17	10	8
	July 27, 2007		HTML		34	32	17	8	8
	July 18, 2007		PDF		33	28	19	9	8
Strategic Counsel	July 15, 2007		HTML		31	31	17	10	10
	June 30, 2007		HTML		37	28	17	7	11
	June 18, 2007		PDF		34	27	19	10	8
	June 11, 2007		HTML	29		32	18	9	9
	May 31, 2007		HTML		34	31	16	10	9
	May 27, 2007		PDF		37	30	14	8	9
	May 24, 2007		HTML		37	31	16	7	9
	May 23, 2007		HTML		35	28	18	9	9
	May 20, 2007		HTML		33	31	17	8	10
Strategic Counsel	May 17, 2007		HTML		34	31	16	10	9
	May 17, 2007		HTML		36	32	14	9	7
	May 10, 2007		HTML	31		32	17	9	9
	May 3, 2007		HTML	32		33	17	9	10
	May 3, 2007		HTML		35	34	14	9	7
	April 29, 2007		HTML	30		31	15	9	13
	April 26, 2007		HTML		38	31	14	8	8
Strategic Counsel	April 24, 2007		PDF		36	30	13	9	12
	April 21, 2007				30	29	18	8	11
	April 19, 2007		HTML		39	29	16	9	7
	April 15, 2007		HTML		34	31	15	7	11
	April 12, 2007		HTML		38	32	14	8	8
SES Research	April 5, 2007		PDF		36	33	16	10	6
	April 5, 2007		HTML		39	30	13	8	8
	April 3, 2007		HTML		36	28	16	8	12
	March 28, 2007		HTML		36	31	15	8	9
	March 28, 2007		PDF		39	22	17	10	11
	March 25, 2007		HTML		35	31	13	8	10
	March 25, 2007		HTML		41	27	14	9	6
	March 22, 2007		HTML		40	29	14	9	7
Strategic Counsel	March 21, 2007		HTML		39	31	13	8	9
	March 15, 2007		HTML		36	34	12	9	8
Strategic Counsel	March 13, 2007		HTML		36	31	15	9	10
	March 7, 2007		HTML		38	28	15	10	8
	March 4, 2007		HTML		35	29	15	7	11
	March 3, 2007		HTML		36	32	15	8	8
	February 27, 2007		HTML		40	26	15	10	8
	February 26, 2007		HTML		36	27	13	8	13
Ipsos-Reid	February 24, 2007		HTML		36	34	13	9	8
Decima Research	February 18, 2007		HTML		32	30	15	9	11
Strategic Counsel	February 18, 2007		HTML		34	29	14	11	12
Decima Research	February 12, 2007		HTML	32		33	15	9	8
SES Research	February 8, 2007		PDF		33	33	17	10	7
Léger Marketing	February 4, 2007		PDF		38	31	14	8	7
Decima Research	January 22, 2007		HTML	32		33	13	13	9
Léger Marketing	January 21, 2007		HTML		35	32	13	8	9
Ipsos-Reid	January 18, 2007		HTML	33		37	13	-	-
Decima Research	January 15, 2007		HTML	32		33	13	10	9
Strategic Counsel	January 14, 2007		HTML	31		35	15	11	8
Environics	December 30, 2006		HTML		34	32	14	8	11
Decima Research	December 30, 2006		HTML		34	31	15	10	8
Ipsos-Reid	December 14, 2006		HTML	34		36	13	10	5
Decima Research	December 13, 2006		HTML	32		35	12	11	7
EKOS	December 9, 2006		HTML	33		40	10	9	8
Ipsos-Reid	December 7, 2006		HTML	32		38	13	11	5
Decima Research	December 3, 2006	PDF	31		35	12	10	11
Strategic Counsel	December 3, 2006	HTML	31		37	14	11	7
Léger Marketing	November 26, 2006	HTML		34	32	15	10	6
Decima Research	November 13, 2006	HTML	31		33	15	10	10
SES Research	November 9, 2006	PDF		34	32	16	13	5
Environics	November 6, 2006	HTML		33	32	19	9	5
Decima Research	November 5, 2006	HTML		31	28	18	10	9
Ipsos-Reid	November 2, 2006	HTML		37	29	19	9	5
Decima Research	October 16, 2006	HTML		32	30	15	11	10
Strategic Counsel	October 15, 2006	HTML		32	32	17	11	9
EKOS	October 12, 2006	HTML		36	31.7	16.2	9.9	6.2
Environics	October 12, 2006			37	28	18	9	7
Strategic Counsel	September 17, 2006	HTML		35	26	19	12	8
EKOS	September 14, 2006	PDF		38.7	28.8	17.0	8.4	7.0
Decima Research	September 4, 2006			34	30	14	11	10
Decima Research	August 28, 2006	PDF		33	28	19	10	8
Ipsos-Reid	August 24, 2006			38	29	17	10	5
SES Research	August 23, 2006	PDF		36	30	18	11	5
Decima Research	August 13, 2006	PDF		36	29	15	10	7
Decima Research	July 31, 2006	PDF		32	31	16	11	8
Strategic Counsel	July 30, 2006	HTML		38	29	15	11	8
Ipsos-Reid	July 27, 2006	HTML		39	27	17	10	7
Decima Research	July 23, 2006	HTML		36	30	17	-	-
Decima Research (without Greens)	July 16, 2006	PDF		36	30	19	11	-
Decima Research (with Greens)	July 16, 2006	PDF		36	29	16	10	8
Strategic Counsel	July 16, 2006	HTML		37	26	18	11	8
Environics	June 23, 2006	HTML		39	25	21	9	4
Decima Research	June 18, 2006	HTML		38	28	19	10	-
Strategic Counsel	June 8, 2006	PDF		36	27	19	9	9
Decima Research	May 28, 2006	PDF		38	29	21	8	-
Ipsos-Reid	May 18, 2006	HTML		43	25	15	9	5
SES Research	May 9, 2006	PDF		38	28	19	9	6
Strategic Counsel	May 3, 2006	HTML		35	31	16	10		9
Decima Research	April 23, 2006	HTML		41	26	19	10	-
Strategic Counsel	April 9, 2006	HTML		39	29	14	11	5
Environics	March 31, 2006	HTML		41	22	21	10	5
Decima Research	March 26, 2006	HTML		39	28	19	11	-
Ipsos-Reid	March 23, 2006	HTML		38	28	19	9	5
Decima Research	March 13, 2006	HTML		37	28	19	10	-
Decima Research	February 27, 2006	HTML		35	28	21	10	-
Ipsos-Reid	February 23, 2006	HTML		39	27	20	8	5
Strategic Counsel	February 21, 2006	HTML		39	28	19	8	-
Decima Research	February 13, 2006	PDF		35	25	24	8	-
SES Research	February 9, 2006	PDF	33		34	18	9	7
Election 2006	January 23, 2006	HTML		36.3	30.2	17.5	10.5	4.5

Leadership polls

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best prime minister:

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Source	Stephen Harper	Stéphane Dion	Jack Layton	Gilles Duceppe	Elizabeth May
Nanos Research	October 5, 2008	PDF		33	18	21	3	4
Nanos Research	October 4, 2008	PDF		32	20	19	3	4
Nanos Research	October 3, 2008	PDF		32	17	19	4	4
Nanos Research	October 2, 2008	PDF		32	18	17	5	5
Nanos Research	September 28, 2008	PDF		35	14	18	4	4
Angus Reid Strategies	September 25, 2008	PDF		33	9	18	3	2
Angus Reid Strategies	September 20, 2008	PDF		32	8	19	4	5
Nanos Research	September 18, 2008	PDF		38	14	17	3	3
Nanos Research	September 15, 2008	PDF		36	14	18	3	3
Nanos Research	September 14, 2008	PDF		34	14	18	4	4
Angus Reid Strategies	September 12, 2008	PDF		36	9	16	4	3
Decima Research	September 8, 2008	PDF		43	22	-	-	-
Segma	September 6, 2008	PDF		42	15	16	4	4
EKOS Research Associates	September 4, 2008	HTML		32	12	19	3	5
Angus Reid Strategies	August 28, 2008	PDF		36	13	-	-	-
Nanos Research	August 27, 2008	PDF		36	15	17	5	4
Ipsos-Reid	February 14, 2008	HTML		41	25	18	6	-
Léger Marketing	February 10, 2008	HTML		32	15	18	-	-
Nanos Research	February 8, 2008	PDF		35	14	21	6	8
Nanos Research	January 3, 2008	HTML		42	12	16	5	4
Nanos Research	November 8, 2007	PDF		37	13	17	6	5
Segma	October 18, 2007	HTML		40	10	16	1	4
Angus Reid Strategies	October 17, 2007	PDF		30	10	-	-	-
Environics	October 17, 2007	HTML		37	12	19	5	4
Nanos Research	August 4, 2007	PDF		31	23	18	6	5
Angus Reid Strategies	July 16, 2007	HTML		33	14	-	-	-
Angus Reid Strategies	June 18, 2007	PDF		33	17	-	-	-
Nanos Research	April 5, 2007	HTML		42	17	16	7	4
Ipsos-Reid	February 19, 2007	HTML		46	25	29	-	-

Sometimes the information is further broken down, as in this Strategic Counsel^[2] poll conducted from February 15 to February 18, 2007:

Leader	Clearest Vision for Canada	Most Decisive Leader	Most Charismatic
	Stephen Harper	50	53	35
	Stéphane Dion	22	19	20
	Jack Layton	20	20	36
	Gilles Duceppe	8	8	10

The Strategic Counsel^[3] also conducts occasional polls of the overall impression of the party leaders: favourable or not favourable (favourable percentage shown).^[4]

width=20%	Date of Polling	align="center"	Stephen Harper	align="center"	Stéphane Dion	align="center"	Jack Layton	align="center"	Gilles Duceppe	align="center"	Elizabeth May
January 13, 2008	58	39	55	62	56
January 14, 2007	54	59	59	63	58

See also

• 2008 Canadian federal election
• Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2006
• Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2011
• Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2015

External links

Projections and predictions

• Election Prediction Project
• Hill and Knowlton election predictor
• LISPOP – Projected distribution of seats

Notes and References

1. The numbers from the poll were divided by 0.84 to remove the 16% of undecided voters (this is done for the sake of comparison, since all the other polls on this page also removed the undecided voters % from their numbers)
2. Web site: Latest poll shows Dion, Liberals losing support. https://web.archive.org/web/20080916010242/http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20070219/counsel_poll_070219/20070219?hub=TopStories. February 20, 2007. September 16, 2008. CTVNews.
3. Web site: Strategic Counsel, A Report To The Globe and Mail and CTV . 2008-09-08 . https://web.archive.org/web/20080907013646/http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2008-01-14%20GMCTV%20Jan%2010-131.pdf . 2008-09-07 . dead .
4. Web site: Dion's approval rating down across country: poll. https://web.archive.org/web/20080916010304/http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080114/counsel_poll_080114/20080114?hub=QPeriod. January 14, 2008. September 16, 2008. CTVNews.