Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election explained

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

Opinion polling

Election polling

Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientAreaSample
size
LabConReformLib DemsGreenSNPOthersLead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
We ThinkN/AGB1,27833%20%21%11%8%3%12
BMG ResearchThe iGB1,52333%24%18%12%8%2%2%9
StonehavenN/AGB34%22%17%12%9%6%12
We ThinkN/AGB2,01236%22%17%11%7%2%14
We ThinkN/AGB2,00539%20%16%11%9%2%3%19
4 Jul 20242024 general electionUK33.7%23.7%14.3%12.2%6.8%2.5%6.8%10.0
GB34.7%24.4%14.7%12.5%6.9%2.5%4.3%10.3

Leadership approval polling

Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Dates
conducted
PollsterSample
size
Keir StarmerRishi SunakNigel FarageEd DaveyCarla DenyerAdrian Ramsay
Pos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.Net
14-16 Aug 2024Opinium2,00032%38%–620%50%–3024%43%–1921%21%-
7–8 Aug 2024We Think1,27833%42%22%57%–3529%44%–1518%36%–1814%28%–1410%26%–16
5–7 Aug 2024BMG Research1,52330%33%19%42%–2323%37%–1421%16%+5
5–6 Aug 2024YouGov2,16337%53%23%71%–4825%67%–42
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024Opinium2,06335%32%+318%48%–3025%40%–1524%19%+519%17%+219%17%+2
30–31 Jul 2024YouGov2,23340%49%–923%70%–4727%62%–3527%33%9%12%3%10%
Beginning of the 2024 United Kingdom riots
25–26 Jul 2024We Think2,01242%37%+525%61%–3630%50%–2021%36%16%34%12%32%
17–19 Jul 2024Opinium2,01038%20%+1820%42%25%18%+721%15%+621%15%+6
8–14 Jul 2024Morning Consult45%25%+20
11–12 Jul 2024We Think2,00538%15%+2321%31%–10
5–8 Jul 2024YouGov[1] 2,10244%47%23%70%–4727%65%34%29%+513%16%–37%14%–7
5–6 Jul 2024Ipsos[2] 1,14140%33%+721%57%–3626%52%–2629%26%+3

Party approval polling

Dates
conducted
PollsterSample
size
LabConReformLib DemsGreen
Pos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.Net
30–31 Jul 2024YouGov2,16339%53%23%70%
5–8 Jul 2024YouGov2,10247%46%+121%72%28%62%45%37%+846%38%+8
5–6 Jul 2024Ipsos1,14140%34%+620%59%–3925%51%–2629%28%+133%28%+6

Preferred prime minister polling

Some opinion pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister:

Dates
conducted
PollsterSample
size
Keir StarmerRishi SunakNigel FarageEd DaveyCarla DenyerAdrian RamsayNoneDon't knowLead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
7–8 Aug 2024We Think1,27826%10%20%5%2%2%20%15%6
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024Opinium2,06338%14%37%11%24
25–26 Jul 2024We Think2,01230%11%18%4%3%1%18%15%12
17–19 Jul 2024Opinium2,01037%14%34%15%23
11–12 Jul 2024We Think2,00530%11%14%5%4%1%33%16

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Smith . Matthew . Keir Starmer favourability rises 8pts following election victory . 9 July 2024 . YouGov UK.
  2. Web site: 5th – 6th July 2024: PUBLIC: Political Pulse: Campaign Tracker Week 7: Post election: Adults aged 18+ in GB . Ipsos . PDF.