Opinion polling for the 2018 Turkish general election explained

In the run up to the 2018 Turkish general election scheduled to take place on 24 June 2018, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Turkey. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. These polls only include Turkish voters nationwide and do not take into account Turkish expatriates voting abroad. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 1 November 2015, to the present day.

Presidential election

First round

Following candidate selection

DatePollsterSample sizewidth=75 Erdoğanwidth=75 İncewidth=75 Akşenerwidth=75 Demirtaşwidth=75 Karamollaoğluwidth=75 Perinçekwidth=60 rowspan=2Lead #1width=60 rowspan=2Lead #2
– 52.3 30.8 7.4 8.3 0.9 0.2
23 Jun 2018AKAM–44.528.313.511.52.00.2
14–20 Jun 20182,10051.628.08.510.31.10.5
17–19 Jun 2018ORC4,25052.729.28.68.40.90.2
16–17 Jun 2018Gezici1,81248.229.111.410.01.20.1
14 Jun 2018
13 Jun 2018Plus Mayak–45.828.913.110.21.80.2
13 Jun 2018AKAM2,46044.529.014.59.32.50.2
6–13 Jun 2018REMRES5,67443.629.512.311.43.00.2
11 Jun 2018CHP–45.632.28.210.73.10.2
9-10 Jun 2018Konda2,72151.928.010.29.00.70.1
8–11 Jun 2018Mediar2,41048.029.99.210.22.10.8
7–11 Jun 2018Foresight 50050.830.18.010.50.4N/A
İYİ Party–42.022.422.711.01.9
MAK5,40051.524.412.58.82.20.6
Gezici2,81447.127.814.110.00.60.4
SONAR3,00048.331.49.58.22.10.5
REMRES4,48241.726.116.711.43.90.2
ORC3,41053.423.811.58.72.10.5
PİAR2,62039.726.021.211.11.80.1
Gezici6,81148.725.814.410.10.60.4
Konsensus2,00047.926.814.89.70.70.1
Mediar4,26843.522.219.312.81.60.6
REMRES4,27642.224.616.912.33.80.2
MAK5,00051.423.912.39.62.20.6
SONAR3,00042.021.921.011.02.12.0
Politic's2,65052.225.512.38.51.10.4
REMRES3,65342.124.117.112.63.90.2
Election–51.8
38.4
9.8

Prior to candidate selection

DatePollsterSample sizewidth=75 AKPwidth=75 CHPwidth=75 MHPwidth=75 HDPwidth=75 İYİwidth=75 SPwidth=75 Otherswidth=50 rowspan=2Lead
REMRES2,58641.2
(Erdoğan)		21.7
(generic)		12.5
(Demirtaş)		20.6
(Akşener)		3.9
(Karamollaoğlu)		0.1
PİAR – 41.1
(Erdoğan) 		20.2
(generic) 		11.4
(Demirtaş) 		24.6
(Akşener) 		2.5
(Karamollaoğlu) 		0.2
Mediar 2,660 42.1
(Erdoğan) 		20.1
(generic) 		13.4
(Demirtaş) 		19.7
(Akşener) 		3.1
(Karamollaoğlu) 		1.6
Konsensus1,00047.6
(Erdoğan)		20.5
(İnce)		7.8
(Demirtaş)		21.9
(Akşener)		2.1
(Karamollaoğlu)		0.1
(Perinçek)
3,864 43.5
(Erdoğan) 		9.7
(Kılıçdaroğlu) 		11.1
(Türk) 		18.6
(Akşener) 		1.5
(Karamollaoğlu) 		9.5
(Başbuğ)
5.3
(Gül)
0.9
(Others)
Ankara Analitik 1,619 46.4
(Erdoğan) 		12.7
(Kılıçdaroğlu) 		12.7
(Akşener) 		rowspan=6 15.2
(Gül)
7.0
(Şener)
PİAR 2,440 43.2
(Erdoğan) 		24.0
(generic) 		13.1
(generic) 		18.2
(Akşener) 		1.5
SONAR 3,000 46.4
(Erdoğan) 		22.5
(generic) 		9.5
(generic) 		18.2
(Akşener) 		3.4
Konsensus – 48.1
(generic) 		25.1
(generic) 		11.9
(generic) 		9.6
(generic) 		2.9
(generic) 		2.4
Gezici 4,638 47.8
(Erdoğan) 		14.0
(Kılıçdaroğlu) 		rowspan=2 38.0
(Akşener) 		rowspan=2
SONAR – 48.2
(Erdoğan) 		30.1
(generic) 		8.8
(generic) 		12.9
(Akşener)
– 51.8
(Erdoğan) 		38.4
(İhsanoğlu) 		9.8
(Demirtaş)

Abroad

DatePollsterCountrySample sizewidth=75 Erdoğanwidth=75 İncewidth=75 Akşenerwidth=75 Demirtaşwidth=75 Karamollaoğluwidth=75 Perinçekwidth=60 rowspan=2Lead #1width=60 rowspan=2Lead #2
1-5 Jun 2018TAVAK1,18448.228.79.210.22.80.9

Second round

Official candidates

Erdoğan vs. Akşener
DatePollsterSample size width=50 Erdoğanwidth=50 Akşenerwidth=50 rowspan=2Lead
REMRES4,27651.248.8
REMRES3,65350.849.2
2 May 2018 REMRES 2,586 50.1 49.9
PİAR – 49.5 50.5
Konsensus1,00052.447.6
3,864 52.2 47.8
ORC 5,620 59.6 40.4
PİAR 5,620 50.5 49.5
Gezici 4,238 51.4 48.6
Erdoğan vs. İnce
DatePollsterSample size width=50 Erdoğanwidth=50 İncewidth=50 rowspan=2Lead
SONAR3,00053.746.3
REMRES4,27650.249.8
6–9 May 2018REMRES3,65350.349.7
Konsensus 1,000 55.144.9

Hypothetical candidates

Erdoğan vs. Gül
DatePollsterSample sizewidth=50 Erdoğanwidth=50 Gülwidth=50 rowspan=2Lead
28 Apr 2018Abdullah Gül declares he will not run for president
3,864 64.6 35.4
ORC 5,620 67.7 32.3
Optimar 1,500 62.2 37.8
Erdoğan vs. Kılıçdaroğlu
DatePollsterSample sizewidth=50 Erdoğanwidth=50 Kılıçdaroğluwidth=50 rowspan=2Lead
Konsensus 1,000 57.742.3
PİAR – 53.0 47.0
29 Apr 2018Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu declares he will not run for president
ORC 5,620 62.0 38.0
PİAR – 52.0 48.0

Parliamentary election

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Party vote

DatePollsterSample size width=50 AKPwidth=50 CHPwidth=50 MHPwidth=50 HDPwidth=50 İYİwidth=50 SPwidth=50 Otherswidth=50 rowspan=2Lead
– 42.822.811.211.510.11.30.7
14–20 Jun 20182,10046.726.36.911.26.81.01.2
17–19 Jun 2018ORC4,25044.224.510.511.97.40.90.6
16–17 Jun 2018Gezici1,81243.626.75.312.110.11.80.4
14 Jun 2018
13 Jun 2018Plus Mayak–39.925.47.412.311.42.61.0
11 Jun 2018CHP–40.327.24.712.310.84.40.3
8–11 Jun 2018Mediar2,41041.526.35.812.110.72.31.3
8–11 Jun 2018Metropoll2,88845.025.06.012.313.13.40.2
9–10 Jun 2018Konda2,72145.526.17.311.68.51.0
7 Jun 2018Gezici–43.525.76.211.113.00.5
1–6 Jun 2018MAK5,40043.524.29.29.210.32.21.5
28 May–3 Jun 2018REMRES4,48240.023.55.110.415.24.21.6
29 May–1 Jun 2018Sonar3,00042.228.27.1 10.09.22.11.2
PİAR2,62034.823.47.314.117.22.50.7
1–28 May 2018Konsensus2,00043.827.47.4 9.711.20.30.2
23–26 May 2018İEA1,50040.722.73.8 12.115.72.52.5
22–23 May 2018Mediar4,26839.622.65.3 11.417.62.31.2
REMRES4,27640.023.35.3 10.415.14.21.7
13–20 May 2018MAK5,00045.023.59.0 9.08.52.22.8
6–9 May 2018REMRES3,65340.323.25.3 10.315.54.21.2
2 May 2018REMRES2,58640.522.75.6 10.415.24.21.3
– 44.2 23.4 with AKP 12.1 17.5 2.5 0.3
44.0 32.2 with CHP 23.3 with İYİ 0.5
44.7 40.2 14.9 with CHP with CHP 0.2
41.6 23.9 11.4 22.8 with İYİ 0.3
46.8 53.0 with CHP with CHP with CHP 0.2
Mediar 2,660 42.5 22.9 13.2 17.1 3.1 1.2
SONAR – 46.9 23.8 11.3 14.5 with İYİ
24–25 Apr 2018Konsensus1,00049.022.46.721.4with İYİ0.5
42.220.27.87.019.72.50.4
18 Apr 2018 Early elections are called for 24 June 2018
MetroPOLL 2,063 48.2 21.0 5.7 10.5 12.3 1.5 0.8
3,864 45.8 19.7 7.0 9.7 16.3 0.8 0.7
48.218.9with AKP 9.5 23.4 with İYİ 0.0
49.9 18.9 10.5 17.8rowspan=31 2.9
ORC 5,620 56.2 26.5 8.3 7.1 1.9
Ankara Analitik 1,619 52.9 18.4 5.3 12.6
PİAR 5,62039.6 22.2 5.8 12.2 16.9 0.8
44.2 31.1 with AKP 24.3 0.4
53.1 35.4 11.1 0.4
43.2 23.1 11.7 21.7 0.3
ORC 3,420 48.2 24.6 11.2 7.9 5.7 2.4
Optimar 1,500 52.2 22.6 10.7 7.8 4.2 2.5
PİAR 2,440 40.2 25.5 7.3 12.0 13.3 1.7
45.2 25.5with AKP 13.5 14.0 1.9
ORC – 47.2 25.9 10.8 8.5 5.5 2.1
SONAR 3,000 40.1 25.3 7.1 10.8 14.2 2.5
Konsensus – 48.2 25.4 11.4 9.8 2.9 2.4
İEA 1,537 45.5 21.5 6.7 11.4 12.3 2.3
Gezici 4,238 42.0 20.1 7.3 8.7 20.2 1.7
AAA 40,800 45.8 22.5 12.7 10.3 8.7 0.0
ORC 2,674 48.9 23.9 10.2 7.5 6.7 2.8
AKP – 50.2 23.2 10.7 10.5 5.5
İEA 1,537 47.4 19.2 7.2 12.3 12.2 1.6
Sonar 3,000 38.5 23.5 7.8 10.3 16.1 3.8
Optimar 1,547 50.6 23.3 9.9 7.8 6.4 2.0
4,638 43.8 18.5 8.8 7.0 19.5 2.4
47.1 26.8 13.5 9.8 rowspan=2 2.8
Konda 2,646 50.9 26.0 10.3 10.5 2.3
MAK – 48.8 25.3 8.9 8.2 5.3 3.6
ORC 2,580 47.4 26.3 10.7 7.3 6.2 2.1
Sonar – 38.2 28.4 10.1 10.6 10.8 1.9
4,322 39.9 23.4 4.0 10.1 21.0 1.6
MAK 5,400 50.5 26.5 12.7 8.0 rowspan=2 2.3
Konensus 1,500 54.5 26.8 7.6 8.5 2.6
ORC 2,740 52.4 24.0 15.2 6.3 rowspan=25 rowspan=25 2.1
AKAM 2,032 46.7 31.4 8.8 10.8 2.2
AKAM 8,120 45.2 31.6 9.7 10.3 3.2
MAK 5,400 52.2 24.5 13.4 7.8 2.2
AKAM 4,060 45.2 29.9 11.8 10.7 2.4
THEMİS 1,985 45.6 31.3 8.3 9.6 5.2
– 45.1 26.0 15.1 10.2 3.6
MAK 5,400 51.7 25.6 12.8 7.8 2.3
Konsensus 1,117 53.4 27.2 9.0 7.9 2.5
ORC 2,340 53.0 23.6 15.8 6.5 1.1
Optimar 2,043 52.1 25.8 13.3 6.4 2.4
KHAS 1,000 52.7 27.2 11.9 6.4 1.9
ORC 2,450 52.8 23.4 15.0 7.0 1.8
İVEM 3,650 54.6 24.2 12.4 6.5 2.3
MetroPOLL – 49.5 26.5 11.5 10.7 1.8
MAK 5,400 50.8 24.6 14.5 7.5 2.6
AKAM 4,240 45.6 30.3 11.2 11.4 1.5
ORC – 53.1 25.0 14.2 6.2 1.5
A&G 3,018 54.6 24.8 12.0 7.9 0.7
ORC – 54.7 24.0 14.0 5.8 1.5
Optimar 1,273 53.8 21.5 11.7 10.7 2.3
ORC 2,240 53.5 23.6 12.0 6.9 4.0
MetroPOLL 3,000 49.9 24.1 13.8 11.0 1.2
Optimar 1,508 51.4 24.3 11.6 10.1 2.7
ORC – 53.0 24.0 13.0 7.0 3.0
KamuAR 2,493 48.9 26.4 12.6 8.4 rowspan=17 rowspan=17 3.7
ORC 1,265 52.8 24.0 12.8 7.1 3.3
Sonar – 48.8 25.6 10.8 9.7 5.1
AKAM 1,214 47.2 28.0 10.9 10.6 3.3
KamuAR 3,917 49.1 25.7 12.3 9.6 3.3
Gezici – 56.2 25.8 8.9 7.3 1.8
ORC 4,176 54.0 21.7 11.6 7.8 4.9
MetroPOLL – 49.9 25.3 11.5 10.5 2.8
KONDA2,150 51.1 24.9 11.7 10.1 2.2
İVEM– 52.4 25.2 11.3 8.4 2.7
ORC8,320 55.8 20.9 11.3 9.8 2.2
GENAR4,500 50.8 25.7 11.1 10.2 2.2
1–3 Jan 2016Varyans– 51.9 23.7 11.1 11.0 2.4
1–4 Dec 2015MAK5,500 53.5 24.6 10.5 9.5 1.9
16–21 Nov 2015MAK5,670 52.5 24.7 11.1 10.0 1.7
4–9 Nov 2015ORC3,230 54.0 24.6 10.5 9.1 1.8
2–3 Nov 2015IPSOS1,614 53.0 25.0 9.0 11.0 2.0
1 Nov 2015–49.3 25.6 12.0 10.6 0.7 1.8
7 Jun 2015–40.725.116.513.02.12.6
DatePollsterSample sizewidth=50 rowspan=2Lead
width=50 AKPwidth=50 CHPwidth=50 MHPwidth=50 HDPwidth=50 İYİwidth=50 SPwidth=50 Others

Domestic vote only

Abroad

Alliance vote

Following formation of alliances

DatePollsterSample size CumhurMilletHDP + othersLead
– 53.733.911.7 + 0.7
23 Jun 2018AKAM–45.940.413.4 + 0.3
17–19 Jun 2018ORC–54.732.811.9 + 0.6
18 Jun 2018Konsensus10,00052417 + 0
16–17 Jun 2018Gezici1,81248.938.612.1 + 0.4
14 Jun 2018
13 Jun 2018Plus Mayak–47.339.412.3 + 1.0
13 Jun 2018AKAM2,46045.639.913.6 + 0.9
6–13 Jun 2018REMRES5,67445.142.512.1 + 0.3
8–11 Jun 2018MetroPOLL2,88849.438.112.3 + 0.2
8–11 Jun 2018Mediar2,41047.739.412.1 + 0.8
11 Jun 2018CHP–45.042.412.3 + 0.3
1–6 Jun 2018MAK5,40052.736.79.2 + 1.5
REMRES4,48244.244.011.5 + 0.3
29 May–1 Jun 2018Sonar3,00049.339.510.0 + 1.2
ORC3,41052.835.610.9 + 0.7
PİAR2,62042.143.114.1 + 0.7
Konsensus2,00050.439.79.6 + 0.3
Gezici6,81148.738.911.5 + 0.9
İEA1,50044.540.513.5 + 1.5
Mediar4,26845.642.511.4 + 0.5
REMRES4,27643.943.712.1 + 0.3
MAK5,00054.034.29.0 + 2.8
REMRES3,65343.943.512.2 + 0.4
2 May 2018REMRES2,58644.243.412.1 + 0.3

Prior to formation of alliances

DatePollsterSample size CumhurMilletOthersLead
1–3 May 2018CHP, İYİ, SP and DP launch the Millet alliance
– 44.2 rowspan=2 55.8 11.6
44.0 56.0 11.5
44.7 40.2 15.1
41.6 rowspan=14 58.4 16.8
46.8 53.2 6.4
Mediar2,660 42.5 57.5 15.0
SONAR– 46.9 53.1 6.2
24–25 Apr 2018Konsensus1,00049.051.02.0
3,864 52.8 47.2
49.9 50.1 0.2
48.2 51.8 3.6
ORC5,620 56.2 43.8
Ankara Analitik1,619 52.9 47.1
PİAR5,62045.4 54.6 9.2
44.2 55.8 11.6
53.1 46.9
43.2 56.8 13.6
20 Feb 2018 AKP and MHP launch the Cumhur alliance

Seat projections

Parties

DatePollsterSample size width=50 AKPwidth=50 CHPwidth=50 MHPwidth=50 HDPwidth=50 İYİwidth=50 Otherswidth=50 rowspan=2Majority
24 June 2018Result–
Mediar2,660with AKP
PİAR2,440
Objektif4,322
1 Nov 2015

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