Opinion polling for the November 2015 Turkish general election explained

In the leadup to the November 2015 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. These polls only include Turkish voters nationwide and do not take into account Turkish expatriates voting abroad.

The results tend to vary widely (see opinion polls in Turkey for further information). Opposition parties tend to regard such polls as unreliable and have presented legislation to Parliament tightening restrictions on how opinion polls conduct their research. After the previous election in June 2015, the polling company ORC issued a written statement apologising for the inaccuracies in their pre-election polls. KONDA, another polling company, made an apology for similar reasons after their predictions varied widely with the actual result after the 2014 presidential election.

Polling accuracy

The following table shows the most accurate polling companies based on the last opinion polls conducted by each company before the June 2015 vote (held on 7 June 2015), taking into account the domestic-only vote shares won in the election.

PartyActual vote
Most accurate pollster
PollsterPoll datePredicted voteError margin
40.7 ANAR 27 May 40.5 0.2
25.1 MAK 18–26 May 24.9 0.2
ORC 30 May – 1 June 25.3 0.2
16.5 Gezici 2 June 16.5 0.0
13.0 Konda 30–31 May 12.6 0.4
Overall most accurate ANAR 27 May – 0.9

Controversies

According to media reports, Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has attempted to suppress polling companies who publish polls predicting that the AKP will lose seats in the election.

Gezici Research and Polling Company have had some of their pollsters arrested in February and September 2015, after predicting that the AKP will lose power in the next election.[1]

Vote share polling

Poll results

DatePollsterSamplewidth=60AKPwidth=60CHPwidth=60MHPwidth=60HDPwidth=60OthersLead
1 Nov Election results
46,555,267 49.3 25.6 12.0 10.6 2.5
24–29 Oct Andy-Ar[2] 2,400 43.7 27.1 14.0 13.0 2.2
24–25 Oct Konda[3] [4] 3,574 41.7 27.9 14.2 13.8 2.3
24–25 Oct A&G<ref name="ahaber">Web site: Adil Gür'ün 1 Kasım araştırmasından şaşırtıcı sonuçlar: AKP yüzde 47... - Ahaber. ahaber.com.tr. 13 May 2016. 4,536 47.2 25.3 13.5 12.2 1.8
24–25 Oct Gezici[5] 4,864 43.0 26.1 14.9 12.2 3.8
22–24 Oct Metropoll[6] 2,576 43.3 25.9 14.8 13.4 2.6
21–24 Oct ORC[7] 2,650 43.3 27.4 14.0 12.2 3.1
22 Oct
17–21 Oct Kurd-Tek[8] 2,592 39.1 28.1 14.4 14.2 4.2
16–20 Oct AKAM[9] 24,540 40.5 28.2 14.3 14.2 2.8
16–20 Oct Betimar[10] 2,000 44.3 25.5 13.6 13.0 3.6
13–19 Oct Konsensus[11] 2,002 43.0 28.6 13.1 11.9 3.4
17–18 Oct Konda ? 41.5 28.0 14.7 12.7 3.1
12–17 Oct Gezici[12] [13] 4,864 41.3 27.0 15.6 12.5 3.6
12–17 Oct MAK[14] – 43.5 27.8 13.6 12.1 3.0
12–16 Oct Argetus[15] 4,472 43.1 26.2 15.1 12.6 3.0
10–16 Oct Perspektif[16] 1,255 42.3 27.6 14.7 12.8 2.6
10–15 Oct Denge[17] – 43.4 25.9 13.7 13.6 3.4
8–15 Oct Sonar[18] 3,000 40.5 27.3 15.2 13.1 3.9
10 Oct
5–9 Oct Samer[19] 4,144 41.4 26.9 15.4 13.9 2.4
4–7 Oct MetroPoll[20] 2,526 42.5 26.3 16.3 13.0 1.9
3–6 Oct Andy-Ar[21] 1,764 42.6 27.1 15.2 12.1 3.0
3–4 Oct Konda ? 41.0 29.2 14.8 12.2 2.8
3–4 Oct Gezici[22] [23] 4,860 40.8 27.6 15.8 13.6 2.2
28 Sep – 1 Oct TÜSİAR[24] 3,041 43.0 26.4 14.6 12.1 4.0
26–27 Sep Gezici[25] 4,860 39.8 28.2 17.3 12.3 2.4
17–24 Sep LRC 2,425 38.9 26.0 17.9 12.3 4.9
23 Sep AKAM[26] [27] 1,214 38.9 27.7 14.5 14.6 4.3
19–23 Sep MAK[28] 5,500 43.7 26.7 14.1 11.5 4.1
22 Sep
19–21 Sep Ada[29] 3,000 44.7 27.6 12.9 11.8 3.0
18 Sep
12–15 Sep ORC[30] [31] 2,760 44.0 27.8 13.4 11.0 3.8
2–15 Sep KURD-TEK[32] [33] 5,348 38.5 26.7 17.5 14.6 2.8
12–13 Sep Gezici[34] 5,000 39.3 28.1 16.8 13.5 2.3
5–13 Sep Konsensus[35] 1,500 43.3 27.6 13.8 12.6 2.7
27 Aug – 13 Sep ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark[36] 157,907 44.2 25.4 14.0 12.5 3.9
12 Sep
5–12 Sep Sonar[37] 2,500 38.2 28.0 18.2 13.7 1.9
5–6 Sep Konda[38] ? 41.7 24.8 16.4 12.3 4.8
2–5 Sep MetroPoll[39] 2,540 41.4 27.3 15.3 13.0 3.2
3 Sep Varyans[40] 15,000 43.9 26.2 14.1 12.3 3.5
2 Sep KamuAR[41] 5,249 42.3 26.0 18.7 11.9 1.2
28 Aug
22–25 Aug ORC[42] 2,450 43.7 27.5 14.3 11.2 3.3
24 Aug
24 Aug AKAM[43] 1,624 39.7 28.5 12.6 14.8 4.7
22–23 Aug Gezici[44] 4,860 38.9 27.8 16.3 13.5 3.5
19–23 Aug Argetus[45] 2,960 42.6 25.5 15.4 12.5 4.0
21 Aug MetroPoll[46] 2,520 41.7 25.5 15.7 14.7 2.4
20 Aug CHP[47] – 38.8 28.7 14.6 13.8 4.1
18 Aug
18 Aug Gezici[48] – 39.2 26.4 16.2 14.1 4.1
13 Aug
13 Aug AKP[49] – 43.8 25.5 15.4 12.5 2.8
8–11 Aug Andy-Ar[50] 1,504 42.8 27.0 15.9 12.8 1.5
8–9 Aug Konda ? 43.6 25.5 14.7 12.8 3.4
7–9 Aug ORC[51] 1,580 44.1 26.8 15.6 10.7 2.8
4–8 Aug MAK[52] 5,500 44.7 25.3 15.6 10.7 3.7
24 Jul – 4 Aug SONAR[53] 3,500 42.9 25.2 17.0 10.3 5.6
27 Jul AKAM[54] 1,412 39.9 27.5 13.8 14.5 4.4
21 Jul
20 Jul
11–15 Jul ORC[55] 3,200 43.5 27.0 15.5 10.9 3.1
4–5 Jul Gezici[56] 4,860 40.1 26.1 14.7 14.2 4.9
29 Jun Andy-Ar[57] 1,556 42.8 27.3 15.4 11.7 2.8
24 Jun MetroPoll[58] 2,483 41.6 25.1 16.2 12.9 4.2
8 Jun IPSOS[59] 1,750 45.0 25.0 14.0 12.0 3.0
7 Jun
45,121,773 40.725.116.513.04.7
12 Jun 2011
42,813,896 49.826.013.0– 11.2

Seat predictions

DatePollsterSamplewidth=60AKPwidth=60CHPwidth=60MHPwidth=60HDPMajority
22–24 Oct MetroPoll 2,576
17–21 Oct Kurd-Tek 2,592
16–20 Oct AKAM 24,540
16–20 Oct Betimar 2,000
17–18 Oct Gezici4,864
3–4 Oct Gezici4,860
26–27 Sep Gezici[60] 4,860
23 Sep AKAM[61] 1,214
27 Aug – 13 Sep ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark[62] 157,907
24 Aug AKAM1,624
22–23 Aug Gezici 4,860
21 Aug MetroPoll 2,520
20 Aug –
27 Jul AKAM 1,412
7 Jun–
12 Jun 2011 June 2011 general election –

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Gezici survey: Public holds Erdoğan, AKP responsible for recent chaos. 19 September 2015. TodaysZaman. 28 October 2015.
  2. Web site: Andy-Ar 1 Kasım Seçim Tahmin Araştırması | Andy-Ar | Sosyal Araştırmalar Merkezi. andy-ar.com. 13 May 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160531012532/http://andy-ar.com/andy-ar-1-kasim-secim-tahmin-arastirmasi/. 31 May 2016. dead.
  3. Web site: İşte KONDA'nın 1 Kasım öncesi son seçim anketinin sonuçları - Gündem - T24. t24.com.tr. 13 May 2016.
  4. Web site: Konda Araştırma & Danışmanlık. konda.com.tr. 22 August 2023.
  5. Web site: Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) Gezici AKP'yi bir haftada iki puan artırdı. 28 October 2015. cumhuriyet.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  6. Web site: 1 Kasım'da sandıktan ne çıkacak? Ankara Katliamı ardından Metropoll'ün yaptığı son seçim anketi. 28 October 2015. medyascope.tv. 13 May 2016.
  7. Web site: ORC seçim anketi sonucu partilerin oy oranları. 26 October 2015. İnternethaber.com. 28 October 2015.
  8. Web site: Archived copy . 22 October 2015 . 27 November 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20151127164609/http://www.kurdtek.net/blog/2015/10/22/1-kasim-genel-secimleri-icin-kamuoyu-yoklamasi-2 . dead .
  9. Web site: AKAM Araştırma. avrasyaarastirma.com. 28 October 2015.
  10. Web site: Son seçim anketinde AKP tek başına iktidar – Sayfa 7 – Galeri – Türkiye – 29 Ekim 2015 Perşembe. sabah.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  11. Web site: Konsensus son seçim anketini açıkladı – Sayfa 2 – Galeri – Türkiye – 29 Ekim 2015 Perşembe. sabah.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  12. Web site: Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) Gezici Araştırma'dan son seçim anketi. 20 October 2015. cumhuriyet.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  13. Web site: Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) Gezici Araştırma'dan son seçim anketi. 20 October 2015. cumhuriyet.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  14. Web site: MAK'ın son seçim anketinde partilerin oyları. gazetevatan.com. 28 October 2015.
  15. Web site: İşte son seçim anketi. 19 October 2015. İhlas Haber Ajansı. 28 October 2015.
  16. Web site: SİYASİ TERCİHLER, TOPLUMSAL KAYGILAR VE GÜNCEL DURUM (10–16 EKİM 2015) – Perspektif Strateji Araştırma. perspektifs.com. 28 October 2015.
  17. Web site: İşte Başbakan'a sunulan son anket. Yeni Şafak. 21 October 2015 . yenisafak.com. 13 May 2016.
  18. Web site: 1 Kasım günü ufukta yine koalisyon var!. 17 October 2015. sozcu.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  19. Web site: Samer. ssamer.com. 13 May 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160103162348/http://www.ssamer.com/Rapor_Detay-Ekim_2015_T%C3%BCrkiye_Geneli_Se%C3%A7im_Ara%C5%9Ft%C4%B1rmas%C4%B1_-1021-3.html. 3 January 2016. dead.
  20. Web site: Türkiyenin Nabzı Ekim 2015. tr. metropoll.com.tr. 22 August 2023.
  21. Web site: Yandaş ankette bile tek başına iktidar yok. 7 October 2015. sozcu.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  22. Web site: Turkish poll shows ruling AKP support short of majority. 15 October 2015. TodaysZaman. 28 October 2015.
  23. Web site: Murat Gezici. Twitter. 28 October 2015.
  24. Web site: Seçime 1 ay kala Türkiye'de son siyasi durum araştırması. tr. tusiar.com. 22 August 2023.
  25. Web site: Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) AKP % 40'ın altında. 5 October 2015. cumhuriyet.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  26. Web site: Seçim anketinde şaşırtan sonuçlar çıktı!. 23 September 2015. sozcu.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  27. Web site: AKAM Araştırma. avrasyaarastirma.com. 28 October 2015.
  28. Web site: Archived copy . 2015-10-02 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20151002082734/http://www.makdanismanlik.org/yonetim/pdfler/MAK%20DANI%C5%9EMANLIK%20EYL%C3%9CL%202015%20S%C4%B0YAS%C4%B0%20G%C3%9CNDEM%20ARA%C5%9ETIRMASI.docx . 2015-10-02 .
  29. Web site: Milletvekili listeleri sonrası ilk seçim anketi sonucu. 29 September 2015. MЭLLЭYET HABER – TЬRKЭYE'NЭN HABER SЭTESЭ. 28 October 2015.
  30. Web site: Türkiye Gazetesi. 29 October 2015. turkiyegazetesi.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  31. Web site: Türkiye Gazetesi. 29 October 2015. turkiyegazetesi.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  32. Web site: Sınırötesinden seçim anketi: AKP yüzde 38'lerde, HDP 15'e dayandı. Celal Başlangıç. t24.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  33. Poll takes into account overseas results
  34. Web site: Gezici araştırması: Yüzde 41'lik kesim kaos ortamından Erdoğan'ı sorumlu tutuyor. Murat Sevinç. Diken. 20 September 2015 . 28 October 2015.
  35. Web site: Son seçim anketi açıklandı. 19 September 2015. MİLLİYET HABER – TÜRKİYE'NİN HABER SİTESİ. 28 October 2015.
  36. Web site: 4 FARKLI ŞİRKET ARAŞTIRDI.. BAŞBAKAN TALİMAT VERDİ!. 22 September 2015. Haber Ay. 28 October 2015.
  37. Web site: Son erken seçim anketi sonuçları SONAR açıkladı. 16 September 2015. İnternethaber.com. 28 October 2015.
  38. Web site: Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – KONDA'dan 1 Kasım seçimleri için bomba anket. 30 September 2015. cumhuriyet.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  39. Web site: Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) Çok çarpıcı bir anket de seçim sonucunu bilen ANDY AR'dan. 15 September 2015. cumhuriyet.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  40. Web site: Son seçim anketinde 2 partiye büyük şok!. 3 September 2015. İnternethaber.com. 28 October 2015.
  41. Web site: KamuAR Araştırma. Twitter. 28 October 2015.
  42. Web site: Birinci Yılını Dolduran Erdoğan'a Destek: Yüzde 53.1. 28 August 2015. Haberler.com. 28 October 2015.
  43. Web site: HDP'nin Anketinde AKP ve MHP'ye Kötü Haber. 24 August 2015. sondakika.com. 28 October 2015.
  44. Web site: AKP'nin oyu 11 puan eridi, 18 vekil gidici!. 28 August 2015. sozcu.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  45. Web site: Türkiye Gazetesi. 29 October 2015. turkiyegazetesi.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  46. Web site: Metropoll'ün son anketine göre HDP'nin oy oranı yüzde 15 bandına dayandı!. t24.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  47. Web site: Kılıçdaroğlu'nun masasındaki son anket. 30 September 2014. Haber7. 21 August 2015.
  48. Web site: Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) İşte son seçim anketi. 18 August 2015. cumhuriyet.com.tr. 21 August 2015.
  49. Web site: İşte son seçim anketi! AKP'nin oyu yükselişte. turkiyegazetesi editor. 13 August 2015. turkiyegazetesi.com.tr. 21 August 2015.
  50. Web site: Seçimleri bilen Andy-Ar'ın en kapsamlı anket sonuçları. 12 August 2015. internethaber.com. 30 October 2015.
  51. Web site: Archived copy . 2020-04-25 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150924061616/http://www.orcarastirma.com.tr/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/A%C4%9EUSTOS-2015-G%C3%9CNDEM-ARA%C5%9ETIRMASI-RAPORU.pdf . 2015-09-24 . dead .
  52. Web site: 7 Haziran'da güldüren araştırma şirketine göre son oy oranları. 10 August 2015. BirGun.net. 21 August 2015.
  53. Web site: Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – SONAR anketinde sürpriz sonuçlar. 5 August 2015. cumhuriyet.com.tr. 21 August 2015.
  54. Web site: 'Erken seçim'den tek başına iktidar çıkar mı?. Telgrafhane / Emeğin yanında, Aydınlanmanın izinde. 21 August 2015.
  55. Web site: Support for AKP increases as majority calls for early elections. 23 July 2015. DailySabah. 21 August 2015.
  56. Web site: Seçim sonrası anketinden flaş sonuçlar. 9 July 2015. sozcu.com.tr. 21 August 2015.
  57. Web site: Erken seçimde oyunu artıracak 2 parti. Telgrafhane / Emeğin yanında, Aydınlanmanın izinde. 21 August 2015.
  58. Web site: İşte erken seçim anketi. 24 June 2015. sozcu.com.tr. 21 August 2015.
  59. Web site: Seçimlerden sonra ilk araştırma…. 10 June 2015. sozcu.com.tr. 21 August 2015.
  60. Web site: İşte son yapılan anket sonuçları. 5 October 2015. sozcu.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  61. Web site: Seçim anketinde şaşırtan sonuçlar çıktı!. 23 September 2015. sozcu.com.tr. 28 October 2015.
  62. Web site: Her kapıyı tek tek çalın. MİLLİYET HABER – TÜRKİYE'NİN HABER SİTESİ. 28 October 2015.

This article is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia article "Opinion polling for the November 2015 Turkish general election".

Except where otherwise indicated, Everything.Explained.Today is © Copyright 2009-2025, A B Cryer, All Rights Reserved. Cookie policy.