Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election explained

Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News/Newshub Reid Research) and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton) polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll) was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos) discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.

The previous Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The 2017 general election was held on Saturday 23 September 2017.[1]

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.

Individual polls

Date[2] Poll<-- the order is National - Labour - Green - NZF - Māori - ACT - United Future - Conservative - Mana - TOP -->NATLABGRNNZFMRIACTUNFCONMNATOP
data-sort-value="2014-09-20" 20 Sep 20142014 election result[3] 47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 0.22 3.97 1.42[4]
data-sort-value="2014-10-12" 29 Sep – 12 Oct 2014Roy Morgan Research[5] 43.5 22.5 17.5 7 2 0.5 0.5 5 1
data-sort-value="2014-11-09" 27 Oct – 9 Nov 2014Roy Morgan Research[6] 49.5 24 14.5 6.5 1 0.5 0 2 0.5
data-sort-value="2014-12-07" 24 Nov – 7 Dec 2014Roy Morgan Research[7] 46 27 12 7 2 1.5 0 2.5 1
data-sort-value="2014-12-21" 8–21 Dec 2014Herald–DigiPoll[8] 50.4 28.9 9.5 5.6 1.5 0.4 0 2.9 0.2
data-sort-value="2015-01-18" 5–18 Jan 2015Roy Morgan Research[9] 52 26 11 6 1.5 1 0 2 0
data-sort-value="2015-01-28" 20–28 Jan 20153 News–Reid Research[10] 49.8 29.1 9.3 6.9 1.3 0.4 0 2.7 0.6
data-sort-value="2015-02-15" 2–15 Feb 2015Roy Morgan Research[11] 49 30 12 6 1 0 0 1.5 0
data-sort-value="2015-02-18" 14–18 Feb 2015One News–Colmar Brunton49 31 10 6 1.5 0.3 0 1.4 0.4
data-sort-value="2015-03-15" 2–15 Mar 2015Roy Morgan Research[12] 46.5 31 11 6 2 1 – 1.5 –
data-sort-value="2015-03-28" 28 Mar 2015The Northland by-election is won by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.
data-sort-value="2015-04-05" 11–15 Apr 2015data-sort-value="2015-04-21" One News–Colmar Brunton[13] 49 31 9 7 0.8 0.5 – 1.5 1.1
data-sort-value="2015-04-19" 6–19 Apr 2015Roy Morgan Research[14] 45.5 27.5 13.5 8 1.5 1 – 1 –
data-sort-value="2015-04-26" 17–26 Apr 2015Herald-DigiPoll[15] 51 28.7 10.8 6.1 0.8 0.8 – 1.1 –
data-sort-value="2015-05-17" 4–17 May 2015Roy Morgan Research[16] 54 25.5 10.5 6 1 1 0 1 –
data-sort-value="2015-05-21" 21 May 2015The 2015 Budget is delivered.
data-sort-value="2015-05-27" 23–27 May 2015One News–Colmar Brunton[17] 48 31 10 7 1.4 0.1 – 2.3–
data-sort-value="2015-05-27" 21–27 May 20153 News–Reid Research[18] [19] 46.4 30.4 11.1 8.1 1.1 0.5 – 1.9 0.1
data-sort-value="2015-05-30" 30 May 2015James Shaw replaces Russel Norman as the Green Party co-leader.[20]
data-sort-value="2015-06-21" 8–21 Jun 2015Roy Morgan Research[21] 49.5 26 13 6.5 1 1 – 1 –
data-sort-value="2015-06-27" 22–27 Jun 2015The Conservative Party disintegrates as leader Colin Craig and all board members resign. Acting leadership of the party is left unclear.[22]
data-sort-value="2015-07-12" 29 Jun – 12 Jul 2015Roy Morgan Research[23] 43 32 13 7 1.5 0.5 – 1.5 –
data-sort-value="2015-07-05" 11–15 Jul 2015One News–Colmar Brunton[24] 47 32 13 7 0.4 0.4 – – 0.5
data-sort-value="2015-07-22" 15–22 Jul 20153 News–Reid Research[25] 47 31.1 11.4 8.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.2
data-sort-value="2015-08-16" 3–16 Aug 2015Roy Morgan Research[26] 50.5 27 11 8 1.5 0.5 – – 0.5
data-sort-value="2015-08-24" 14–24 Aug 2015Herald-DigiPoll[27] 50.8 31 9.2 6.9 1 0.2 – 0.6 0.2
data-sort-value="2015-09-02" 29 Aug – 2 Sep 2015One News–Colmar Brunton[28] 47 32 12 7 1.2 0.1 – 0.10.2
data-sort-value="2015-09-13" 31 Aug – 13 Sep 2015Roy Morgan Research[29] 44.5 31 15 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1 0.5
data-sort-value="2016-09-16" 8–16 Sep 20153 News–Reid Research[30] 47.3 33 10 7.9 0.5 0.6 – 0.5 –
data-sort-value="2015-10-11" 31 Sep – 11 Oct 2015Roy Morgan Research[31] 50 29 11.5 6.5 0.5 0.5 – 0.5 0.5
data-sort-value="2015-12-04" 10–14 Oct 2015One News–Colmar Brunton[32] 47 31 12 9 0.8 0.2 – 0.4–
data-sort-value="2015-11-08" 26 Oct – 8 Nov 2015Roy Morgan Research[33] 49 29.5 12 6 2 0.5 – 0.5 0.5
data-sort-value="2015-11-17" 9–17 Nov 20153 News–Reid Research[34] 46.7 32.3 10.2 7.5 1.3 0.8 – 0.7 0.2
data-sort-value="2015-12-06" 23 Nov – 6 Dec 2015Roy Morgan Research[35] 49 28.5 13 6 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 –
data-sort-value="2015-12-14" 4–14 Dec 2015Herald-DigiPoll[36] 51.3 31.1 8.2 5.7 2.1 0.8 0.3 – –
data-sort-value="2016-01-17" 4–17 Jan 2016Roy Morgan Research[37] 47 27.5 14 6.5 3 0.5 – 1 –
data-sort-value="2016-02-04" 4 Feb 2016The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement is signed by the New Zealand government and 12 other partner countries.
data-sort-value="2016-02-14" 1–14 Feb 2016Roy Morgan Research[38] 48 27 14.5 6 1 0.5 – 1 0.5
data-sort-value="2016-02-07" 13–17 Feb 2016One News–Colmar Brunton[39] 47 32 8 10 1.1 0.3 – 0.60.3
data-sort-value="2016-03-13" 29 Feb – 13 Mar 2016Roy Morgan Research[40] 46 28 14 9 1 1 – 0.5 0.5
data-sort-value="2016-04-06" 2–6 Apr 2016One News–Colmar Brunton[41] 50 28 10 9 1.1 0.7 – 0.3 –
data-sort-value="2016-04-17" 4–17 Apr 2016Roy Morgan Research[42] 42.5 26 14.5 12.5 1.5 1.5 – 1 –
data-sort-value="2016-05-15" 2–15 May 2016Roy Morgan Research[43] 45.5 29.5 12 9.5 1 1 0 0.5 –
data-sort-value="2016-05-22" 12–22 May 2016Newshub Reid Research[44] 47 31.3 11.1 7.8 1 0.4 – 0.6 0.1
data-sort-value="2016-05-31" 26 May 2016The 2016 Budget is delivered.
data-sort-value="2016-05-31" 31 May 2016The Labour and Green parties undertake a memorandum of understanding.[45]
data-sort-value="2016-06-02" 28 May – 2 Jun 2016One News–Colmar Brunton[46] 48 29 12 9 0.7 0.3 – 0.7 0.1
data-sort-value="2016-06-12"12 Jun 2016Roy Morgan Research[47] 43.5 28 14.5 9 2 0.5 – 1 1
data-sort-value="2016-07-17"17 Jul 2016Roy Morgan Research[48] 53 25.5 11.5 7 0.5 1 – 0.5 0.5
data-sort-value="2016-08-03" 22 Jul – 3 Aug 2016Newshub Reid Research[49] 45.1 32.7 11.5 8.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4
data-sort-value="2016-08-21" 8–21 Aug 2016Roy Morgan Research[50] 46 25.5 14.5 9.5 1.5 1 – 1 0.5
data-sort-value="2016-09-07"3–7 Sep 2016One News–Colmar Brunton[51] 48 26 13 11 2 – – 0.3 –
data-sort-value="2016-09-18"5–18 Sep 2016Roy Morgan Research[52] 41.5 33.5 12 8.5 2 1 – 0.5 –
data-sort-value="2016-10-23"10–23 Oct 2016Roy Morgan Research[53] 48 26.5 11.5 10 1.5 0.5 – – –
data-sort-value="2016-11-14" 14 Nov 2016A 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits the coastal town of Kaikōura.
data-sort-value="2016-11" Nov 2016The Opportunities Party is inaugurated by Gareth Morgan.
data-sort-value="2016-11-23"12–23 Nov 2016One News–Colmar Brunton[54] 50 28 11 10 1 – – 0.2 – –
data-sort-value="2016-11-20" 24 Oct – 20 Nov 2016Roy Morgan Research[55] 49.5 23.0 14.5 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 –
data-sort-value="2016-12-03" 3 Dec 2016Labour's Michael Wood wins the Mount Roskill by-election.
data-sort-value="2016-12-05" 5 Dec 2016John Key announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of New Zealand, effective 12 December.
data-sort-value="2016-12-11" 28 Nov – 11 Dec 2016Roy Morgan Research[56] 45.0 28.5 14.5 7.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 –
data-sort-value="2016-12-12" 12 Dec 2016Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party.
Paula Bennett becomes both Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Leader.
data-sort-value="2017-01-16" 3–16 Jan 2017Roy Morgan Research[57] 46.0 27.0 12.5 9.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 –
data-sort-value="2017-02-01" 1 Feb 2017Prime Minister Bill English announces that the election will take place on 23 September 2017.
data-sort-value="2017-02-12" 30 Jan – 12 Feb 2017Roy Morgan Research[58] 48.0 26.0 13.0 8.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 –
data-sort-value="2017-02-15" 11–15 Feb 2017One News–Colmar Brunton[59] 46 30 11 11 0.7 0.8 0.3[60] 0.2 0.8 0.0
data-sort-value="2017-02-25" 25 Feb 2017Labour's Jacinda Ardern wins the Mount Albert by-election.
data-sort-value="2017-03-01" 1 Mar 2017Annette King steps down as Labour Party Deputy Leader and announces her retirement from Parliament, effective September. Mount Albert MP Jacinda Ardern is nominated as her successor and is confirmed six days later with the unanimous support of Labour's caucus.
data-sort-value="2017-03-06" 6 Mar 2017The Opportunities Party is registered by the Electoral Commission.[61]
data-sort-value="2017-03-12" 27 Feb – 12 Mar 2017Roy Morgan Research[62] 43.5 29.5 14.5 7.5 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 –
data-sort-value="2017-03-19" 10–19 Mar 2017Newshub Reid Research[63] [64] 47.1 30.8 11.2 7.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8
data-sort-value="2017-03-22" 18–22 Mar 2017One News–Colmar Brunton[65] [66] 46 30 11 8 4 0.4 – 0.3 0.2 0.4
data-sort-value="2017-04-16" 3–16 Apr 2017Roy Morgan Research[67] 43.0 29.5 13.0 10.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 –
data-sort-value="2017-05-14" 1–14 May 2017Roy Morgan Research[68] 43.0 28.5 14.0 10.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 –
data-sort-value="2017-05-25" 25 May 2017The 2017 budget is delivered.
data-sort-value="2017-05-24" 19–24 May 2017Listener: Bauer Media Insights[69] 43.75 23.75 16.25 10.00 1.25 1.25 0.00 1.25 – 2.50
data-sort-value="2017-05-31" 21–31 May 2017One News–Colmar Brunton[70] [71] 49 30 9 9 0.6 0.5 – 0.1 – 1.4
data-sort-value="2017-06-11" 29 May – 11 Jun 2017Roy Morgan Research[72] 46.5 25.5 14.0 9.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 –
data-sort-value="2017-06-12"12 Jun 2017Newshub Reid Research[73] [74] 47.4 26.4 12.5 9.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.8
data-sort-value="2017-06-21" 21 Jun 2017National MP Todd Barclay announces he will not seek re-election after it was revealed that he secretly recorded a staff member's conversations without her consent.[75] Police re-open their investigation five days later, after Bill English stated that Barclay had admitted to him that he made the recording.[76]
data-sort-value="2017-07-05"1–5 Jul 2017One News–Colmar Brunton[77] 4727 11 11 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.1
data-sort-value="2017-07-09" 26 Jun – 9 Jul 2017Roy Morgan Research[78] 43 30.5 13.5 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 –
data-sort-value="2017-07-16" 16 Jul 2017Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to not disclosing to Work and Income New Zealand that she was accepting rent from flatmates while on the Domestic Purposes Benefit in the early 1990s.[79]
data-sort-value="2017-07-27"22–27 Jul 2017One News–Colmar Brunton[80] [81] 47 24 15 11 0.6 0.3 0.1 – – 1.5
data-sort-value="2017-07-28"20–28 Jul 2017Newshub Reid Research[82] 45.2 24.1 13 13 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2[83] 2
data-sort-value="2017-08-01" 1 Aug 2017Labour Party leader Andrew Little resigns as Leader of the Labour Party following consecutive poll results that show Labour with low support. Jacinda Ardern is confirmed as Leader shortly after while Kelvin Davis assumes the role of Deputy Leader.
data-sort-value="2017-08-02" 1–2 Aug 2017 Listener: Bauer Media Insights[84] 45.42 26.79 13.98 9.32 0.00 1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.33
data-sort-value="2017-08-03" 3 Aug 2017Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to registering a false residential address to vote for a friend who was running in the Mount Albert electorate in 1993.[85] The controversy leads Green Party MPs David Clendon and Kennedy Graham to withdraw from the party list four days later.[86]
data-sort-value="2017-08-08" 2–8 Aug 2017Newshub Reid Research[87] 44.4 33.1 8.3 9.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 2
data-sort-value="2017-09-09" 9 Aug 2017Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader and from the party list following her admission of benefit fraud.[88]
data-sort-value="2017-08-13" 31 Jul – 13 Aug 2017Roy Morgan Research[89] 42.5 32.5 9.0 11.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
data-sort-value="2017-08-16" 12–16 Aug 2017One News–Colmar Brunton[90] [91] 44 37 4.3 10 1.7 0.4 0.0 – – 2.1
data-sort-value="2017-08-21" 21 Aug 2017United Future leader and Minister of Internal Affairs Peter Dunne announces his retirement from politics.[92] Damian Light (candidate for Botany) is appointed leader 2 days later.[93]
data-sort-value="2017-08-27" 27 Aug 2017Controversy arises after a leak reveals that NZ First leader Winston Peters was overpaid in his superannuation payments for years.[94] [95]
data-sort-value="2017-08-30" 22–30 Aug 2017Newshub Reid Research[96] 43.3 39.4 6.1 6.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.9
data-sort-value="2017-08-30" 26–30 Aug 2017One News–Colmar Brunton[97] [98] 41 43 5 8 0.5 0.3 – – – 0.9
data-sort-value="2017-09-05"1–5 Sep 2017Listener: Bauer Media Insights[99] 38.9 41.1 6.7 8.9 1.1 1.1 – – – 2.2
data-sort-value="2017-09-06"2–6 Sep 2017One News–Colmar Brunton[100] [101] 39 43 5 9 2.0 0.1 – – – 1.9
data-sort-value="2017-09-06"4–6 Sep 2017Newsroom-SSI[102] 30 45 6 11 2 1 – – – 2
data-sort-value="2017-09-10" 28 Aug – 10 Sep 2017Roy Morgan Research[103] 40 39.5 9 6 2 0.5 0 0.5 – 2
data-sort-value="2017-09-11" 6–11 Sep 2017Newshub Reid Research[104] 47.3 37.8 4.9 6.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6
data-sort-value="2017-09-11" 11 Sep 2017Advance voting for the election begins. The Electoral Commission predicts up to 50% of voters will cast their vote before election day (up from 30% in 2014).[105]
data-sort-value="2017-09-13"9–13 Sep 2017One News–Colmar Brunton[106] [107] 40 44 7 6 0.9 0.6 – – – 1.6
data-sort-value="2017-09-20"13–20 Sep 2017Newshub Reid Research[108] [109] 45.8 37.3 7.1 7.1 0.4 0.6 – 0.6 0.1 0.9
data-sort-value="2017-09-19"15–19 Sep 2017One News–Colmar Brunton[110] [111] 46 37 8 4.9 0.5 0.3 – – – 2.3
data-sort-value="2017-09-23" 23 Sep 2017Election day
data-sort-value="2017-09-23" 23 Sep 20172017 election result[112] 44.4 36.9 6.3 7.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.4
DatePoll<-- the order is National - Labour - Green - NZF - Māori - ACT - United Future - Conservative - Mana - TOP -->NATLABGRNNZFMRIACTUNFCONMNATOP

Internal polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those which are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Date[113] Poll<-- the order is National - Labour - Green - NZF - Māori - ACT - Conservative - Mana - TOP -->NATLABGRNNZFMRIACTCONMNATOP
data-sort-value="2014-09-20" 20 Sep 20142014 election result47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 3.97 1.40
data-sort-value="2014-10" Oct 2014UMR Research[114] 50 24 13 7.8 1.5 0.6 3.0 0.8
data-sort-value="2014-11" Nov 2014UMR Research47 25 13 7.6 2.7 0.4 3.0 0.8
data-sort-value="2014-12" Dec 2014UMR Research45 30 14 6.1 0.6 0.2 3.3 0.5
data-sort-value="2015-01" Jan 2015UMR Research[115] 48 31 12 5.8 1.0 0.0 1.6 0.0
data-sort-value="2015-02" Feb 2015UMR Research46 32 12 5.0 1.5 0.7 2.7 0.3
data-sort-value="2015-03" Mar 2015UMR Research46 31 11 6.9 1.6 0.4 3.1 0.4
data-sort-value="2015-04" Apr 2015UMR Research43 32 13 7.6 1.8 1.1 1.2 0.3
data-sort-value="2015-05" May 2015UMR Research46 31 10 6.8 1.3 1.1 3.0 0.4
data-sort-value="2015-06" Jun 2015UMR Research45 32 13 7.5 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.2
data-sort-value="2015-07" Jul 2015UMR Research41 35 14 6.7 1.2 0.3 3.0 0.5
data-sort-value="2015-08" Aug 2015UMR Research42 31 14 8.5 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
data-sort-value="2015-09" Sep 2015UMR Research45 31 13 8.7 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.4
data-sort-value="2015-10" Oct 2015UMR Research48 31 10 7.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2
data-sort-value="2015-11" Nov 2015UMR Research44 31 13 8.0 1.5 0.5 1.2 0.1
data-sort-value="2015-12" Dec 2015UMR Research45 35 10 8.3 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.2
data-sort-value="2016-09-05" 31 Aug – 5 Sep 2016UMR Research[116] 40 31 14 11 – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-01" Early Jan 2017UMR Research[117] 46 30 11 9 – – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-02 A" Early Feb 2017UMR Research44 30 12 11– – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-02 B" Late Feb 2017UMR Research48 28 12 8 – – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-03 A" Early Mar 2017UMR Research42 30 14 10– – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-03 B" Late Mar 2017UMR Research44 30 12 10– – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-04 A" Early Apr 2017UMR Research43 28 13 12– – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-04 B" Late Apr 2017UMR Research43 28 12 12– – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-05 A" Early May 2017UMR Research42 34 13 9 – – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-05 B" Late May 2017UMR Research44 30 13 9 – – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-06 A" Early Jun 2017UMR Research42 32 13 9 – – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-06 B" Late Jun 2017UMR Research43 29 12 11– – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-07-10" 5–10 Jul 2017UMR Research42 26 13 14– – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-07 B" Late Jul 2017UMR Research[118] [119] 42 23 15 16– – – – –
data-sort-value="2017-08-08" 1–8 Aug 2017UMR Research[120] [121] 43 36 8 8 – – – – 3
data-sort-value="2017-08-16" 11–16 Aug 2017UMR Research[122] [123] 40 37 8 9 – – – – 3.5
data-sort-value="2017-09-20" 20 Sep 2017Curia[124] 43 39 6 6 – – – – –

Preferred prime minister

Graphical summary

Individual polls

PollDate<-- the order is English - Ardern - Peters - Shaw - Little - Key -->Bill EnglishJacinda ArdernWinston PetersJames ShawHone HarawiraGareth MorganPeter DunneMetiria TureiAndrew LittleJohn Key
Herald-DigiPoll 8–21 Dec 2014– 1.7 – – – – – – 13.6 65
3 News-Reid Research[125] 20–28 Jan 20150.3 – 7.6 – – – – – 9.8 44.0
One News-Colmar Brunton14–18 Feb 20150.6 0.7 7.0 – 0.4 – – 1.1 12.0 41.0
Herald-DigiPoll17–26 Apr 2015– – 12 – – – – – 13.9 64.6
3 News Reid Research21–27 May 20150.6 – 11.2 – – – – – 11.6 39.4
3 News Reid Research15–22 Jul 20150.2 – 11.3 0.2 – – – – 10.2 38.3
Herald-DigiPoll14–24 Aug 2015– 3.9 11.6 0.6 – – – 0.9 13.3 63.7
3 News Reid Research8–16 Sep 20150.3 3.5 8.6 0.2 – – 0.1 – 10.8 39.5
3 News Reid Research9–17 Nov 20150.7 4.2 9.3 – – – 0.1 – 10.4 38.3
Herald-DigiPoll4–14 Dec 2015– 2.8 7.9 – – – – – 16.2 65.2
One News Colmar Brunton2–6 Apr 20160.9 2 10 0.4 – – – – 7 39
Newshub Reid Research12–22 May 20160.2 2.6 12.1 0.5 – – – – 8.9 36.7
One News Colmar Brunton28 May – 2 Jun 20160.4 1 12 0.4 – – – – 7 39
Newshub Reid Research22 Jul – 3 Aug 20160.3 2.9 10.9 0.9 – 0.3 – 1 10.5 36.7
One News Colmar Brunton3–7 Sep 2016– 1 11 0.1 – – – – 10 38
One News Colmar Brunton[126] 12–23 Nov 2016– 1 8 0.3 – 0.1 0.3 1 8 36
12 Dec 2016 – Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton11–15 Feb 201731 4 8 0.3 – 0.1 – 2 7 2
Newshub Reid Research10–19 Mar 201725 10.5 8.9 – – 0.1 – 1 8.3 5.9
One News Colmar Brunton18–22 Mar 201726 9 9 0.5 0.3 – 0.2 0.4 7 2
Listener: Bauer Media Insights19–24 May 201739 16 9 2 – 2 – 3 13 –
One News Colmar Brunton21–31 May 201729 6 7 0.4 – 0.2 0.1 0.7 8 2
Newshub Reid Research2–12 Jun 201726.2 6.6 9.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.4 7 5.9
One News Colmar Brunton1–5 Jul 201726 6 11 0.5 0.5 0.7 – 0.2 5 1
One News Colmar Brunton22–27 Jul 201728 6 10 0.2 – 0.3 0.2 1 6 1
Newshub Reid Research20–28 Jul 201725.8 8.7 11.9 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.4 1.6 7.1 6
1 Aug 2017 – Jacinda Ardern replaces Andrew Little as Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party.
Newshub Reid Research2–8 Aug 201727.7 26.3 10 0.2 0.5 0.6 – 0.8 0.9 4.9
9 Aug 2017 – Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader of the Green Party.
One News Colmar Brunton[127] 12–16 Aug 201730 30 7 0.3 0.4 0.7 – – – 0.5
21–23 Aug 2017 – Peter Dunne retires as leader of United Future and is replaced by Damian Light.[128]
Newshub Reid Research 22–30 Aug 201730.1 29.9 6.9 0.5 0.1 0.6 0 0.8 0.3 4.6
One News Colmar Brunton 26–30 Aug 201733 34 4 0.4 – 0.4 – 0.8 – –
Listener: Bauer Media Insights1–5 Sep 201736 46 6 1 – 1 – – – –
One News Colmar Brunton 2–6 Sep 201731 35 5 1 0.1 0.5 – – 0.1 0.7
4–6 Sep 201731 45 11 – – – – – – –
Newshub Reid Research[129] 6–11 Sep 201733.1 31.7 6.9 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.1 4.1
One News Colmar Brunton 9–13 Sep 201732 34 5 0.3 – 0.3 – 0.2 – 0.6
Newshub Reid Research 13–20 Sep 201734.7 29.6 7.1 0.6 – 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 3.6
One News Colmar Brunton15–19 Sep 201737 31 6 0.3 0.3 0.2 – 0.1 – 0.7
PollDate<-- the order is English - Ardern - Peters - Shaw - Little - Key -->Bill EnglishJacinda ArdernWinston PetersJames ShawHone HarawiraGareth MorganPeter DunneMetiria TureiAndrew LittleJohn Key

Electorate polling

Ōhāriu

Party vote

PollDate [130] NationalLabourGreenNZ FirstTOPUnited FutureMāoriACT
2014 election result20 September 201450.23 23.42 15.01 4.76 0.73 0.57 0.67
Q+A Colmar Brunton[131] 5 – 9 Aug 201746 35 12 4 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.3

Candidate vote

PollDate [132] LabourGreg O'ConnorUnited FuturePeter DunneNationalBrett HudsonGreenTane WoodleyTOPJessica Hammond DoubeACTAndie MooreLabourGinny AndersenACTSean Fitzpatrick
2014 election result20 September 201436.23 16.34 7.38 34.34 0.55
14 Feb 2017 – Green Party choose not to stand a candidate to help Labour candidate Greg O'Connor defeat Peter Dunne.[133]
Q+A Colmar Brunton5 – 9 August 201748 34 14 — 2 1
21 Aug 2017 – Ōhāriu Incumbent Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) announces that he will now be retiring from politics.
23 Aug 2017 – United Future stand Bale Nadakuitavuki as a candidate[134] and Green Party reinstate Tane Woodley as a candidate.[135]

Waiariki

Party vote

PollDate [136] LabourMāoriNZ FirstNationalGreen
2014 election result20 September 201438.37 21.79 12.54 5.00 7.98
Community Engagement Ltd[137] 19 – 22 July 201719.4 18.9 25.7 13.4 12.1
Maori TV-Reid Research[138] July – 3 September 201749.6 26.5 10.2 5.6 4.8

Candidate vote

PollDate [139] MāoriTe Ururoa FlavellLabourTāmati CoffeyLabourRawiri WaititiManaAnnette Sykes
2014 election result20 September 201443.42 26.06 24.48
26 Aug 2016 – Rawiri Waititi cuts allegiances with Labour after being inspired by the Māori King to encourage Mana and Māori parties to win all Māori electorates by working together.[140] 07 Oct 2016 – Tāmati Coffey is announced as Labour candidate for Waiariki electorate. Coffey ran for Rotorua electorate in 2014 gaining 33.18% of the vote against Todd McClay who won with 54.97% of the vote.[141]

20 Feb 2017 – Mana begin a memorandum of understanding with the Māori Party to not contest in any electorates where Māori Party have candidates, in an attempt to win back the Māori electorates from Labour.[142]

Community Engagement Ltd19 – 22 July 201731.6 30.1
Maori TV-Reid ResearchJuly – 3 September 201760.1 39.9

The Māori roll (all 7 electorates)

PollDate [143] LabourMāoriNZ FirstNationalGreenManaTOP
2014 election result20 September 201441.22 14.05 12.98 7.93 11.17 10.22 N/A*
Māori TV, Reid Research Poll[144] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 201746.5 17.5 13.8 9.5 9.0 1.8 1.5

Whangarei

Party vote

PollDate [145] NationalLabourNZ FirstGreenMāoriACTTOP
2014 election result20 September 201450.08 17.80 13.36 9.77 0.53 0.55 N/A*
30 Jun 2017 – Shane Jones is confirmed as the New Zealand First candidate in Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975).[146]
Q+A Colmar Brunton[147] 19 – 22 Aug 201741 37 16 3.6 1.3 1.0 0.4

Candidate vote

PollDate [148] NationalShane RetiNZ FirstShane JonesLabourTony SavageGreenAsh HolwellDFSCChris LeitchACTRobin GrieveLabourKelly EllisNZ FirstPita ParaoneGreenPaul Doherty
2014 election result20 September 201455.07 N/A N/A N/A 2.68 0.78 19.01 8.06 8.66
30 Jun 2017 – Shane Jones is confirmed as the New Zealand First candidate in Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975).
Q+A Colmar Brunton19 – 22 Aug 201742 24 22 10 1.7 0.1 N/A N/A N/A

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Party vote

PollDate [149] LabourMāoriManaNationalNZ FirstGreenACTTOP
2014 election result20 September 201447.38 12.19 5.37 11.25 10.28 0.11
Māori TV Reid Research[150] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 201750.4 21.1 1.3 5.9 12 7.5 0.3 1.6

Candidate vote

Te Tai Hauāuru

Party vote

PollDate [152] LabourMāoriNationalGreenNZ FirstManaTOP
2014 election result20 September 201442.23 17.64 7.11 11.93 11.79 6.82
Māori TV Reid Research11 Jul – 17 Aug 201741.8 24 11.2 9.1 11 1.3 1.3

Candidate vote

Te Tai Tonga

Party vote

PollDate [154] LabourNationalMāoriGreenNZ FirstACTTOP
2014 election result20 September 201436.7 14.92 11.19 16.41 12.82 0.17
Māori TV Reid Research11 Jul – 17 Aug 201747.6 14.1 11.7 9.3 14.4 0.3 2.4

Candidate vote

Hauraki-Waikato

Party vote

PollDate [156] LabourNZ FirstMāori
2014 election result20 September 201446.50 13.37 11.97
Māori TV-Reid Research[157] 11 Jul – 3 Sept 201752.6 15.1 14.5

Candidate vote

PollDate [158] LabourNanaia MahutaMāoriRahui PapaManaSusan Cullen
2014 election result20 September 201459.54 21.96 15.22
Māori TV-Reid Research11 Jul – 3 Sept 201778 22

Tāmaki Makaurau

Party vote

PollDate [159] LabourNZ FirstMāoriGreenNational
2014 election result20 September 201440.45 13.98 12.72 11.69 7.55
Māori TV-Reid Research[160] 12 Jul – 5 Sept 201747.0 12.6 14.5 11.3 12.6

Candidate vote

PollDate [161] LabourPeeni HenareMāoriShane TaurimaGreenMarama DavidsonMāoriRangi McLean
2014 election result20 September 201437.48 15.60 30.21
Māori TV-Reid Research12 Jul – 5 Sept 201746.0 32.6 21.4

Te Tai Tokerau

Party vote

PollDate [162] LabourNZ FirstMāoriGreenNationalMana
2014 election result20 September 201438.8 8.1 9.1 8.7 10.2 16.3
Māori TV-Reid Research[163] 12 Jul – 5 Sept 201749.7 14.7 9.7 10.3 7.9 6.1

Candidate vote

PollDate [164] LabourKelvin DavisManaHone HarawiraGreenGodfrey Rudoplh
2014 election result20 September 201443.90 40.53
Māori TV-Reid Research12 Jul – 5 Sept 201767.4 30.3 2.3

Forecasts

New Zealand does not have a strong tradition of third-party forecast models. Some private individuals have created their own projection models.[165] [166]

See also

Notes and References

  1. News: Wong. Simon. Prime Minister sets 2017 election date. 1 February 2017. . 1 February 2017.
  2. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  3. Web site: Official Count Results – Overall Status . . Wellington . 10 October 2014 . 29 November 2014.
  4. For the Internet MANA party vote alliance.
  5. Web site: National fail to get post-election bounce but leaderless Labour Party crash to lowest ever support . Roy Morgan Research . 16 October 2014 . 29 November 2014.
  6. Web site: National enjoy delayed honeymoon with big lead over leaderless Labour before new leader is selected next week . Roy Morgan Research . 14 November 2014 . 29 November 2014.
  7. Web site: National lead is down after Andrew Little claims the Labour Leadership with a landslide of Union support over Cabinet's preferred option Grant Robertson . Roy Morgan Research . 12 December 2014 . 26 December 2014.
  8. Web site: Audrey . Young . 26 December 2014 . National, Labour both on the rise . The New Zealand Herald . 2 February 2015.
  9. Web site: National surges in 2015 – Biggest lead since September 2014 NZ Election . Roy Morgan Research . 23 January 2015 . 23 January 2015 . 23 January 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150123130047/http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6028-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-january-2015-201501230555 . dead .
  10. Web site: Patrick . Gower . Patrick Gower . 1 February 2015 . Little rivals Clark in favourable poll results . 3 News . 1 February 2015 . 1 February 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150201191119/http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/little-rivals-clark-in-favourable-poll-results-2015020116 . dead .
  11. Web site: National support slips but Labour still well behind as New Zealand co-host the 2015 Cricket World Cup . Roy Morgan Research . 20 February 2015 . 20 February 2015.
  12. Web site: National support slips but would win a close election as New Zealand get set to host Cricket World Cup Quarter-Final . Roy Morgan Research . 20 March 2015 . 20 March 2015.
  13. News: Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll . Colmar Brunton . 19 April 2015 . 21 Apr 2015.
  14. Web site: National retains strong support despite NZ First victory at the Northland by-election . Roy Morgan Research . 23 April 2015 . 23 April 2015.
  15. Web site: Audrey . Young . 29 April 2014 . Ponytail-gate fails to shake Prime Minister's ratings . The New Zealand Herald . 29 April 2015.
  16. Web site: Positive news in lead up to New Zealand Budget helps National Government support jump to 54% – highest since October 2011 Share . Roy Morgan Research . 25 May 2015 . 25 May 2015.
  17. News: Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll . Colmar Brunton . 31 May 2015 . 1 June 2015 .
  18. Web site: Patrick . Gower . Patrick Gower . 2 June 2015 . John Key's popularity drops in latest poll . 3 News . 2 June 2015 . 3 June 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150603070250/http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/john-keys-popularity-drops-in-latest-poll-2015060218#axzz3brg4lwEb . dead .
  19. Web site: TV3 Poll Results . Reidresearch.co.nz . 26 February 2017.
  20. Web site: James Shaw named Greens new co-leader. 30 May 2015. The New Zealand Herald. 30 May 2015.
  21. Web site: National Government support down to 49.5% as New Zealand growth slows to 0.2% in March Quarter – slowest in two years . Roy Morgan Research . 24 June 2015 . 24 June 2015.
  22. News: Calls for Colin Craig's party membership to be cancelled. 22 June 2015. The New Zealand Herald. Davison. Isaac. 22 June 2015.
  23. Web site: Support for Labour/Greens coalition overtakes National for first time since New Zealand Election . Roy Morgan Research . 17 July 2015 . 17 July 2015.
  24. News: Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll . Colmar Brunton . 19 July 2015 . 19 July 2015 . 21 July 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150721160354/http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/one-news-colmar-brunton-poll . dead .
  25. Web site: Patrick . Gower . Patrick Gower . 26 July 2015 . Poll: 61pct want to ban foreign buyers . 3 News . 26 July 2015 . 15 August 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150815163102/http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/poll-61pct-want-to-ban-foreign-buyers-2015072617#axzz3gqh0yHS9 . dead .
  26. Web site: National support jumps ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance . Roy Morgan Research . 20 August 2015 . 20 August 2015.
  27. Web site: Audrey . Young . 26 August 2015 . Labour's support recovers to 30s . The New Zealand Herald . 26 August 2015.
  28. News: Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll . Colmar Brunton . 6 September 2015 . 11 September 2015 .
  29. Web site: Potential Labour/Greens alliance support jumps ahead of National as RBNZ cuts interest rates to boost flagging NZ economy . Roy Morgan Research . 13 September 2015 . 18 September 2015 .
  30. Web site: Patrick . Gower . Patrick Gower . 26 July 2015 . Political poll: Support low for flag change . 3 News . 21 September 2015 . 9 October 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20151009073622/http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/political-poll-support-low-for-flag-change-2015092016#axzz3mJPcupOV . dead .
  31. Web site: National support jumps in October with signing of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and leads potential Labour/Greens alliance . Roy Morgan Research . 15 October 2015.
  32. News: Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll . Colmar Brunton . 18 October 2015 . 20 October 2015 .
  33. Web site: NZ voting intention virtually unchanged in November before controversy this week after PM John Key accuses Opposition Leader Andrew Little of backing rapists . Roy Morgan Research . 13 November 2015.
  34. Web site: Patrick . Gower . Patrick Gower . 22 November 2015 . National still ahead in polls despite 'rapist' remarks . 3 News . 24 November 2015 . 23 November 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20151123155701/http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/national-still-ahead-in-polls-despite-rapist-remarks-2015112217#axzz3sM83EsVZ . dead .
  35. Web site: National set for Merry Christmas as Key Government retains strong lead over Labour/Greens opposition . Roy Morgan Research . 25 December 2015.
  36. Web site: Audrey . Young . 15 December 2015 . National steady at year-end . NZ Herald . 16 December 2015.
  37. Web site: National lead down slightly over Labour/Greens opposition in New Year. TPP signing ceremony set for Auckland in two weeks a coup for PM John Key. . Roy Morgan Research . 22 January 2016.
  38. Web site: National builds winning lead over Labour/Greens opposition in New Zealand following TPP signing ceremony in Auckland early in February . Roy Morgan Research . 22 February 2016.
  39. News: Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll . Colmar Brunton . 21 February 2016 . 23 February 2016 .
  40. Web site: National lead cut to smallest since September as NZ First vote surges to 9% as Winston Peters takes strong stand on New Zealand Flag Referendum . Roy Morgan Research . 18 March 2016.
  41. News: Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll . Colmar Brunton . 10 April 2016 . 10 April 2016 . 18 April 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160418045526/http://colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/160410-ONE-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-2-6-Apr-2016-prelim.pdf . dead .
  42. Web site: National vote lowest since 2014 Election as NZ First vote surges to 20 year high of 12.5% . Roy Morgan Research . 26 April 2016.
  43. Web site: National and Labour vote up in May but NZ First still holds the balance of power position despite vote falling . Roy Morgan Research . 23 May 2016.
  44. News: Patrick . Gower . Patrick Gower . 24 May 2016 . Newshub poll: Key's popularity plummets to lowest level. . 24 May 2016.
  45. News: Davison. Isaac. Labour, Greens to work together to stop National at next election. 31 May 2016. The New Zealand Herald. 31 May 2016.
  46. News: Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll . Colmar Brunton . 7 June 2016 . 7 June 2016 . 15 June 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160615024324/http://colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/160607-ONE-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-28-May-2-June-2016-prelim.pdf . dead .
  47. Web site: National and Labour down in June but New Zealand First still holds the balance of power if Election was held now . Roy Morgan Research . 20 June 2016.
  48. Web site: National extends lead over Labour to highest in over a year as Government unveils $1 billion housing infrastructure fund . Roy Morgan Research . 22 July 2016.
  49. News: Patrick . Gower . Patrick Gower . 8 August 2016 . Poll: John Key could lose grip on power . . 8 August 2016.
  50. Web site: National support down but still has election winning lead after boost from $1 billion housing infrastructure fund announcement wears off . 8 September 2016.
  51. Web site: Poll-infographic-with-econ-outlook . Colmar Brunton . 13 September 2016 . 13 September 2016 . 23 September 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160923131937/http://colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/Poll-infographic-with-econ-outlook-910x1024.png . dead .
  52. Web site: National Party support is at lowest level since before election; now behind potential Labour/ Greens Alliance . 27 September 2016.
  53. Web site: National Party support up in October; now well ahead of potential Labour/ Greens alliance after successful overseas trips for PM Key . 4 November 2016.
  54. Web site: Poll-infographic-with-econ-outlook . Colmar Brunton . 27 November 2016 . 28 November 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190214165526/http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Preliminary_ONE-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-Nov-12-13-21-23.pdf . 14 February 2019 . dead .
  55. Web site: National Party support up again in November as Roy Morgan Government Confidence surges despite series of earthquakes . 30 November 2016.
  56. Web site: National Party support down in December as PM Key resigns and Labour score easy by-election victory in Mt. Roskill . 21 December 2016.
  57. Web site: National Party support up slightly in January as new Prime Minister Bill English returns from 'introductory tour' to Europe . 22 January 2017.
  58. Web site: National Party support up slightly in February as new PM Bill English welcomes visit of Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull.
  59. News: 1 NEWS poll: Labour and Greens close gap on National following John Key's departure . TVNZ . One News . 19 February 2017 . 19 February 2017 . 19 February 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170219171139/https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-poll-labour-and-greens-close-gap-national-following-john-keys-departure . dead .
  60. Web site: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll : 11–15 February 2017 . Colmarbrunton.co.nz . 23 March 2017 .
  61. Web site: Registration of The Opportunities Party (TOP). Electoral Commission (New Zealand). 9 September 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20180831174801/https://www.elections.org.nz/news-media/registration-opportunities-party-top. 31 August 2018. dead.
  62. Web site: National Party well down in March as Prime Minister Bill English talks of lifting retirement age to 67 – lowest party vote since September 2016 . Roymorgan.com . 22 March 2017. e
  63. News: Gower . Patrick . Patrick Gower . poll: Jacinda Ardern preferred as PM over Andrew Little . . 21 March 2017 . 23 March 2017.
  64. News: New Zealand election 2017: Newshub-Reid Research poll data bank. . 27 August 2017.
  65. Web site: Maori Party surges into potential Kingmaker position in latest poll. TVNZ. 16 April 2017. 9 April 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170409182847/https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/maori-party-surges-into-potential-kingmaker-position-in-latest-poll-v1. dead.
  66. Web site: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll : 18–22 March 2017 . Colmarbrunton.co.nz . 28 April 2017 .
  67. Web site: New Zealand First in the box seat to decide next NZ Government as National Party neck-and-neck with Labour/ Greens . Roymorgan.com . 29 April 2017.
  68. Web site: National Party remains 'dead-locked' with Labour/Greens alliance in May pre-Budget . Roy Morgan Research . 26 May 2017 . 27 May 2017.
  69. Web site: New Zealand Election 2017: Undercurrents of change in new poll. 8 June 2017. 9 September 2017. noted.co.nz. 9 September 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170909053112/http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/politics/new-zealand-election-2017-undercurrents-of-change-in-new-poll/. dead.
  70. News: National hits six-month high in latest poll as Labour fails to make gains, Green Party slips. TVNZ. 7 June 2017. 13 July 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170713100923/https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/national-hits-six-month-high-in-latest-poll-labour-fails-make-gains-green-party-slips. dead.
  71. Web site: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll . 27 May 2017 . Colmarbrunton.co.nz . 2017-07-11 .
  72. Web site: National Party consolidates lead after NZ Budget projects years of surpluses . Roy Morgan Research . 23 June 2017.
  73. News: Gower . Patrick . Patrick Gower . Poll: Labour crumbles, falling towards defeat . . 15 June 2017 . 16 June 2017.
  74. News: New Zealand election 2017: Newshub-Reid Research poll data bank. . 27 August 2017.
  75. News: Politicians, police, and the payout . Newsroom . 19 June 2017 . 4 July 2017.
  76. News: Police reopen investigation into Todd Barclay . Stuff . 26 June 2017 . 4 July 2017.
  77. Web site: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 1–5 July 2017.
  78. Web site: In July Labour/Greens now just ahead of National but New Zealand First again in the 'box seat'. Roy Morgan Research. 9 July 2017. 31 August 2017.
  79. News: Benefit raise, tax cuts for poorest and hikes for wealthy in new Greens policy . Stuff . 16 June 2017 . 30 July 2017.
  80. News: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 22–27 July 2017. TVNZ.
  81. Web site: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 22–27 Aug 2017. Colmar Brunton. 4 Sep 2016.
  82. News: Gower . Patrick . Patrick Gower . Poll: Newshub poll: Winston Peters cements position as kingmaker . . 20–28 July 2017 . 31 July 2017.
  83. News: New Zealand politics: Newshub-Reid Research poll data bank. Newshub.
  84. Web site: Why Labour's last-minute leadership change may be its salvation. 4 August 2017. 9 September 2017. noted.co.nz. 9 September 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170909095556/http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/politics/why-labour-s-last-minute-leadership-change-may-be-its-salvation/. dead.
  85. Web site: Kirk . Stacey . Stacey Kirk . Metiria Turei admits she registered a false address to vote . . 4 Aug 2017 . 8 August 2017.
  86. Web site: Two Green MPs quit over Metiria Turei admissions . . 7 Aug 2017 . 8 August 2017.
  87. News: Gower. Patrick. Patrick Gower. Newshub poll: Jacinda Ardern Brings Labour Back. Newshub. 9 August 2017. 9 August 2017.
  88. News: Livestream: Metiria Turei resigns as Green Party co-leader. Newshub. 2017-08-09.
  89. Web site: Jacinda Ardern's ascension to leadership revitalises Labour, up 2% to 32.5%; Turei scandal costs Greens support, down 4.5% to 9%.
  90. News: 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Greens plummet below five per cent, 'Jacinda effect' keeps Labour climbing. TVNZ. 17 August 2017. 17 August 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170817161606/https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-greens-plummet-below-five-per-cent-jacinda-effect-keeps-labour-climbing. dead.
  91. Web site: 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll 12–16 Aug 2017. Colmar Brunton. 4 Sep 2016. 18 September 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170918055651/http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Website_1-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-12-16-Aug.pdf. dead.
  92. Web site: Peter Dunne resigns from politics only weeks out from the election. Stuff. 21 August 2017. 21 August 2017.
  93. Web site: UnitedFuture appoints Damian Light as new leader. unitedfuture.org.nz. 23 Aug 2017. 2 September 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171021034200/http://unitedfuture.org.nz/unitedfuture-appoints-damian-light-as-new-leader/. 21 October 2017. dead.
  94. News: Winston Peters' shifting story over pension overpayment. Newshub. 27 August 2017. 31 August 2017.
  95. Web site: Timeline: Winston Peters' superannuation overpayments saga. radionz.co.nz. 29 August 2017. 31 August 2017.
  96. News: Gower. Patrick. Patrick Gower. Newshub poll: National and Labour in one-on-one fight for power. Newshub. 3 September 2017. 3 September 2017.
  97. News: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 26–30 August 2017. TVNZ. 31 August 2017. 31 August 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170831134714/https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watch-labour-rockets-ahead-national-in-stunning-colmar-brunton-poll-result. dead.
  98. Web site: 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll 26–30 Aug 2017. Colmar Brunton. 4 Sep 2016. 18 September 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170918105415/http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Prelim_1-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-26-30-Aug.pdf. dead.
  99. Web site: Poll: Labour, National and the crucial 8%. noted.co.nz. 8 September 2017. 8 September 2017. 8 September 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170908064621/http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/politics/poll-labour-national-and-the-crucial-8/. dead.
  100. News: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 2–6 September 2017. Colmar Brunton. 7 September 2017. 7 September 2017. 7 September 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170907084453/https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/new-poll-labour-widens-lead-over-national-4-points-in-latest-1-news-colmar-brunton. dead.
  101. Web site: 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll 2–6 September 2017. Colmar Brunton. 9 Sep 2016. 18 September 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170918061653/http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Prelim_1-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-2-6-Sep.pdf. dead.
  102. Web site: Labour opens gap with women, young. 8 September 2017.
  103. Web site: New Zealand Election on a knife edge but Labour favoured with the support of the Greens & Maori Party as 'Jacindamania' pulls support from National & New Zealand First.
  104. News: Greens out of Parliament on latest Newshub's poll. Newshub. 12 September 2017.
  105. News: Advance voting starts today . Radio New Zealand . 11 September 2017.
  106. News: New 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains four point lead over National, could govern with Greens. 14 September 2017.
  107. Web site: 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll 9–13 September 2017. Colmar Brunton. 16 Sep 2016. 13 October 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171013012624/http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Prelim_1-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-9-13-Sep.pdf. dead.
  108. News: Newshub election poll: Either National, Labour could take power. Newshub. 21 September 2017.
  109. News: New Zealand politics: Newshub-Reid Research poll data bank. Newshub.
  110. News: New poll: National takes huge lead in bombshell 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll. 20 September 2017.
  111. Web site: 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll 16–19 September 2017. Colmar Brunton. 25 Sep 2016.
  112. Web site: 2017 General Election – Official Result . . Wellington . 7 October 2017 . 7 October 2017.
  113. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  114. Web site: Annual Review: Mood of the Nation 2014. UMR Research. February 2015. 30 August 2017. 12 April 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170412012748/http://umr.co.nz/sites/umr/files/mood_of_the_nation_2014_released_2015_final.pdf. dead.
  115. Web site: Annual Review: Mood of the Nation 2015. UMR Research. February 2016. 30 August 2017. 12 April 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170412012719/http://umr.co.nz/sites/umr/files/final_mood_of_the_nation_2015_released_2016_1.pdf. dead.
  116. Web site: Labour and the Greens ahead based on the Opposition's own polling. UMR Research. 5 September 2016. 30 August 2017.
  117. News: Labour's confidential polling leaked. Newshub. UMR Research. 14 July 2017. 29 August 2017.
  118. Web site: Leaked poll puts Labour at just 23 percent. UMR Research. July 2017. 29 August 2017.
  119. Web site: NZ First up to 16% in election poll. UMR Research. July 2017. 29 August 2017.
  120. Web site: Labour surges, Greens and NZ First suffer in new polls. UMR Research. 8 August 2017. 29 August 2017.
  121. Web site: By the numbers: Winston in the driver's seat. UMR Research. 10 August 2017. 30 August 2017.
  122. Web site: More good news for Labour as Jacinda Ardern prepares for campaign launch. UMR Research. 20 August 2017. 30 August 2017.
  123. Web site: Live: On the campaign trail. Stuff. 2017-08-30.
  124. Web site: Election 2017 Live: National surges into big poll lead. Hickey. Bernard. Murphy. Tim. Jennings. Mark. 20 September 2017. 25 September 2017.
  125. Web site: TV3 Poll Results. 11 September 2017. www.reidresearch.co.nz.
  126. Web site: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll report 22-27 July 2017 . 17 August 2017 . 28 August 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170828195928/http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ONE-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-22-27-Jul.pdf . dead .
  127. Web site: Archived copy . www.colmarbrunton.co.nz . https://web.archive.org/web/20170828203031/http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Prelim_1-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-12-16-Aug.pdf . 28 August 2017 .
  128. Web site: UnitedFuture appoints Damian Light as new leader. 23 August 2017. 9 September 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171021034200/http://unitedfuture.org.nz/unitedfuture-appoints-damian-light-as-new-leader/. 21 October 2017. dead.
  129. News: Bill English NZ's preferred PM on latest Newshub poll . 12 September 2017.
  130. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  131. Web site: Q+A Colmar Brunton Ōhāriu poll . 17 August 2017 . 28 August 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170828214705/http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/QA-Colmar-Brunton-Ohariu-Electorate-Poll-5-9-Aug-2017.pdf . dead .
  132. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  133. Web site: Greens step aside in Ōhāriu to help Labour's O'Connor. . . 14 February 2017 . 23 August 2017.
  134. Web site: UnitedFuture announces Bale Nadakuitavuki as candidate for Ohariu.
  135. Web site: Tane Woodley reintroduced as Green Party candidate for Ōhāriu. . . 23 August 2017 . 23 August 2017.
  136. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  137. News: Labour poll suggests it's game-on in Waiariki. Newshub. 30 July 2017. 5 September 2017.
  138. News: Flavell runs the polls. maoritelevision.com. 10 September 2017. 10 September 2017.
  139. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  140. Web site: Waititi inspired by Maori King to ditch Labour . opotikinews.co.nz . 30 August 2016 . 26 August 2017 . 26 August 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170826114335/https://www.opotikinews.co.nz/blog/694002 . dead .
  141. Web site: Tāmati Coffey to take on Flavell for Waiariki seat . . 7 October 2016. 26 August 2017.
  142. Web site: Hone Harawira gets clear Te Tai Tokerau run for Mana not running against Māori Party in other seats. 20 February 2017.
  143. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  144. Web site: Māori TV, Reid Research Poll, 17 Aug 2017.
  145. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  146. Web site: Shane Jones confirmed as NZ First candidate for Whangarei. Stuff. 30 June 2017. 27 August 2017.
  147. Web site: Q+A Colmar Brunton, Whangarei poll, 19 – 22 Aug 2017. 22 August 2017. 1 September 2017.
  148. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  149. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  150. News: It's all on – polling for three Māori electorates released. Newshub.
  151. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  152. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  153. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  154. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  155. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  156. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  157. News: House of Mahuta rules in polls. maoritelevision.com. 10 September 2017. 10 September 2017.
  158. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  159. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  160. News: Undecided could decide Auckland Māori seat. 18 September 2017.
  161. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  162. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  163. News: Poll: Clear majority for Kelvin Davis in Te Tai Tokerau. 20 September 2017.
  164. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  165. https://ellisp.github.io/elections/elections.html Peter's Stats Stuff
  166. https://sites.google.com/site/nzelectionprediction/home NZ Election Prediction

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