Opinion polling for the 2025 Philippine Senate election explained

This article covers opinion polling for the 2025 Philippine Senate election.

Opinion polling in the Philippines is conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, OCTA Research, and other pollsters.

Those who win outright are in bold. Those that are within the margin of error are in italics.

Polling for Senate elections

Pollsters usually do face-to-face interviews with respondents. They sometimes present respondents with a mock ballot on which the respondent will mark his or her choices for the Senate. The Senate of the Philippines is elected via multiple non-transferable vote on an at-large basis, where a voter has 12 votes, cannot transfer any of the votes to a candidate, and can vote for up to twelve candidates. If the mock ballot has 13 or more preferences, the pollster classifies it as "invalid."

Aside from publishing preferences per candidate, pollsters also include other data such as averages on how many candidates the respondents included in their preferences.

Calendar

Survey details

Date/s administered Pollster Margin of errorMajor issues when poll was administered
Jun 26–Jul 1, 2024[1] OCTA 1,200 ±3.0%
Jun 17–24, 2024[2] Pulse Asia
Mar 14–19, 2024[3] Publicus Asia 1,500
Mar 11–14, 2024[4] OCTA 1,200 ±3.0%
Mar 6–10, 2024[5] Pulse Asia
Feb 21–29, 2024Oculum3,000±2.0%
Dec 10–14, 2023[6] OCTA 1,200 ±3.0%
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2023[7] OCTA 1,200 ±3.0%
Sep 20–30, 2023[8] RP-MDF 10,000 ±1.0%
Apr 15–18, 2023[9] SWS 1,200 ±3.0%

Per candidate

By voter preferences

Before October 2024

CandidatePartyApr 15–18, 2023
SWS
Sep 20–30, 2023
RP-MDF
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2023
OCTA
Dec 10–14, 2023
OCTA
Feb 21–29, 2024
Oculum[10]
Mar 6–10, 2024
Pulse Asia
Mar 11–14, 2024
OCTA
Mar 14–19, 2024
Publicus Asia
Jun 17–24, 2024
Pulse Asia
Jun 26–Jul 1, 2024
OCTA

data-sort-value="Abalos, Benjamin Jr." align="left" PFP8%40.3%15%18%12.9%21%10.2%27%
data-sort-value="Abella, Ernesto" align="left" Independent0.6%0.5%1%
data-sort-value="Acosta, Persida" align="left" Independent8.9%6.3%7%
data-sort-value="Alvarez, Pantaleon" align="left" Reporma2%3.3%2.0%
data-sort-value="Aquino, Bam" align="left" KANP7%13%12%17.3%7.3%12.5%10%
data-sort-value="Badoy-Partosa, Lorraine" align="left" Independent0.5%0.3%
data-sort-value="Baguilat, Teddy" align="left" Liberal2%0.3%
data-sort-value="Balita, Carl" align="left" Carl Balita Aksyon0.5%2.5%2.6%1.9%
data-sort-value="Barbers, Ace" align="left" Nacionalista2%
data-sort-value="Bautista, Herbert" align="left" NPC8%17.1%10%12%11.0%11.7%13.2%12%
data-sort-value="Belgica, Greco" align="left" PDDS1%1.4%0.8%1%
data-sort-value="Binay, Abigail" align="left" NPC10%11%29.1%14.1%18.9%23%
data-sort-value="Binay, Jejomar" align="left" UNA15%25%
data-sort-value="Bondoc, Jimmy" align="left" Independent0.8%
data-sort-value="Calida, Jose" align="left" Independent0.7%
data-sort-value="Castro, France" align="left" ACT Teachers2.0%1%
data-sort-value="Cayetano, Pia" align="left" Nacionalista23%39.6%36%30%35%37.7%26%23%42.7%39%
data-sort-value="Colmenares, Neri" align="left" Makabayan4%6%8%4.4%5.4%5.9%4%
data-sort-value="Cua, Dakila" align="left" PFP0.3%
data-sort-value="Dantes, Dingdong" align="left" Independent10.4%8.1%11%
data-sort-value="David, Rafaela" align="left" Rafaela David Akbayan0.3%
data-sort-value="De Castro, Noli" align="left" Aksyon9%20.2%19%12%13.7%12%
data-sort-value="De Lima, Leila" align="left" Liberal5%6%7%9.3%8.6%9%
data-sort-value="Defensor, Arthur Jr." align="left" PFP3%
data-sort-value="Defensor, Lorenz" align="left" Lorenz Defensor NUP5.5%
data-sort-value="Defensor, Mike" align="left" PFP14%7%8.9%11.3%9%
data-sort-value="Dela Rosa, Ronald" align="left" PDP9%51.7%39%47%41%33.2%33%28%31.3%36%
data-sort-value="Diaz, Fernando" align="left" Fernando Diaz PPP1%0.6%
data-sort-value="Diokno, Chel" align="left" KANP7%12%7%11.2%7.3%6%
data-sort-value="Drilon, Franklin" align="left" Liberal8%13%12%16.1%14.5%15.3%17%
data-sort-value="Duterte, Paolo" align="left" HNP13%14%13.1%15.1%13.8%15%
data-sort-value="Duterte, Rodrigo" align="left" PDP25%53%47.7%38%38%38.7%33%
data-sort-value="Duterte, Sebastian" align="left" HNP13.5%16.8%14.9%18%
data-sort-value="Eleazar, Guillermo" align="left" Reporma7%8%10.4%4.8%9.8%4%
data-sort-value="Espiritu, Luke" align="left" Luke Espiritu PLM1%
data-sort-value="Failon, Ted" align="left" Independent14.6%18.8%13%
data-sort-value="Frasco, Christina" align="left" Lakas2.8%2%
data-sort-value="Frasco, Duke" align="left" Duke Frasco NUP1.4%2.8%
data-sort-value="Gadon, Larry" align="left" KBL5%4%4.6%3.4%3.5%1%
data-sort-value="Garcia, George" align="left" Independent0.9%
data-sort-value="Garcia, Gwendolyn" align="left" One Cebu4%5%5.2%5.9%3%
data-sort-value="Gatchalian, Rex" align="left" NPC10%
data-sort-value="Go, Bong" align="left" PDP20%68.7%49%53%40%44.2%50%32%36.6%45%
data-sort-value="Golez, Ferdinand" align="left" Ferdinand Golez Independent0.6%1%
data-sort-value="Gomez, Richard" align="left" PFP7%14%11%11.6%12.7%9.9%8%
data-sort-value="Gonzales, Aurelio Jr." align="left" Lakas0.9%
data-sort-value="Gordon, Dick" align="left" Bagumbayan6%16%14%14.8%17.6%12.0%15%
data-sort-value="Gutoc, Samira" align="left" Samira GutocAksyon1%2.1%2%
data-sort-value="Guttierez, Barry" align="left" Barry Guttierez Akbayan0.9%
data-sort-value="Honasan, Gregorio" align="left" Reform PH10%19%18%23%17.5%17.6%18.6%17%
data-sort-value="Jubahib, Edwin" align="left" PFP0.5%
data-sort-value="Kapunan, Lorna" align="left" Lorna Kapunan Aksyon3.4%
data-sort-value="Lacson, Panfilo" align="left" Independent16%36.9%32%32%32%28.6%34%32%32.2%34%
data-sort-value="Langit, Rey" align="left" PDP1%1.3%1.7%1%
data-sort-value="Lapid, Lito" align="left" NPC17%25.3%26%20%30%25.4%22%21.4%28%
data-sort-value="Lee, Wilbert" align="left" Independent0.4%1.4%
data-sort-value="Llamas, Ronald" align="left" Ronald Llamas Akbayan0.6%
data-sort-value="Magalong, Benjamin" align="left" NPC3.1%2.1%
data-sort-value="Mandanas, Hermilando" align="left" PDP2%0.6%2.1%1.2%
data-sort-value="Mata, Richard" align="left" Richard Mata Independent0.4%1%
data-sort-value="Marcoleta, Rodante" align="left" PDP3%8%2.4%2.2%4.3%3%
data-sort-value="Marcos, Liza Araneta" align="left" PFP6.0%
data-sort-value="Marcos, Imee" align="left" Nacionalista18%55.8%39%42%35%32.1%29%27%33.8%28%
data-sort-value="Martinez, Eric" align="left" PDP0.8%
data-sort-value="Montano, Cesar" align="left" Independent8.4%7.1%6%
data-sort-value="Moreno, Isko" align="left" Aksyon14%36.5%35%32%45%31.5%27%27%31.7%23%
data-sort-value="Nepomuceno, Ariel" align="left" Ariel Nepomuceno Independent0.3%
data-sort-value="Neri, Victor" align="left" Independent3%2.2%3.8%2.9%2%
data-sort-value="Ong, Willie" align="left" Aksyon24.7%21%17%35%24.6%21%41%18.3%20%
data-sort-value="Osmeña, Serge" align="left" Independent 6%
data-sort-value="Pacquiao, Manny" align="left" PROMDI19%37.2%26%28%43%33.7%32%33.5%32%
data-sort-value="Panelo, Salvador" align="left" PDP2%3%0.8%2.5%2.4%
data-sort-value="Pangilinan, Francis" align="left" Liberal8%19.8%19%15%22.2%14.9%19.2%17%
data-sort-value="Pichay, Prospero Jr." align="left" Lakas0.9%
data-sort-value="Piñol, Emmanuel" align="left" NPC2%3.5%
data-sort-value="Querubin, Ariel" align="left" Nacionalista1.0%2.8%3%
data-sort-value="Quiboloy, Apollo" align="left" Independent0.2%0.6%
data-sort-value="Recto, Ralph" align="left" Nacionalista7%14%15%18.8%13.9%15.8%14%
data-sort-value="Remulla, Jesus Crispin" align="left" NUP1%3.6%
data-sort-value="Revilla, Bong" align="left" Lakas13%63.8%32%35%32%29.6%30%29.9%38%
data-sort-value="Revillame, Willie" align="left" Independent19.4%13%18%25.9%14.3%15%
data-sort-value="Robredo, Leni" align="left" Liberal10%50.9%15%17%23%13.6%11.7%27%
data-sort-value="Rodriguez, Rufus" align="left" CDP3%
data-sort-value="Rodriguez, Vic" align="left" Independent0.9%0.4%1%
data-sort-value="Romualdez, Martin" align="left" Lakas5%53.4%
data-sort-value="Romualdez, Yedda Marie" align="left" Lakas1.5%2.4%
data-sort-value="Roque, Harry" align="left" PRP4%8%7%5.0%5.8%5.9%2%
data-sort-value="Roxas, Mar" align="left" Liberal10%11%15%13.6%11.7%15.9%13%
data-sort-value="Salvador, Phillip" align="left" PDP6%3.9%3.6%5.4%4%
data-sort-value="Sanchez, Korina" align="left" Independent11.5%
data-sort-value="Santos, Vilma" align="left" Nacionalista3%23.6%
data-sort-value="Singson, Allen" align="left" Allen Singson Independent0.7%
data-sort-value="Sotto, Tito" align="left" NPC18%68.9%42%48%53%51.8%52%32%50.4%44%
data-sort-value="Sotto, Vico" align="left" Independent18%35%
data-sort-value="Taberna, Anthony" align="left" Independent3.7%
data-sort-value="Teodoro, Gilbert" align="left" PRP5%18%19%15.2%12.6%26%16.8%14%
data-sort-value="Tolentino, Francis" align="left" Independent 6%63.6%28%33%16.7%22%17.6%34%
data-sort-value="Trillanes, Antonio" align="left" Aksyon6%10%11%13.0%10.2%12%
data-sort-value="Tulfo, Ben" align="left" Independent30.5%43%40.9%45%
data-sort-value="Tulfo, Erwin" align="left" ACT-CIS32%64.5%60%76%52%57.1%58%37%58.0%58%
data-sort-value="Villafuerte, Luis Raymund" align="left" NUP2%2.8%2.8%
data-sort-value="Villar, Camille" align="left" Nacionalista6%
data-sort-value="Yu-Pimentel, Kathryna" align="left" PDP4%5.7%4.1%
Don't know 3% 1% 3.5% 2.6%
Refused 4% 3% 1.7% 2.1%
None 7% 1.0% 1.9%
Invalid votes (13 or more names)

Per party

Seats won

Date Pollster
2024
Jun 26–Jul 1OCTA1101023310103
Jun 17–24Pulse Asia1101021300102
Mar 14–19Publicus Asia1200121301001
Mar 11–14 OCTA1201022310103
Mar 6–10 Pulse Asia1201023300103
Feb 21–29Oculum1201122300103
2023
Dec 10–14 OCTA1101022200112
Sep 30–Oct 4 OCTA1201022200102
Sep 20–30 RP-MDF1102121210102
Apr 15–18 SWS1100022200112

Seats after the election

Totals may not add up to 24 due to margin of error.

Date Pollster
2024
Jun 26–Jul 1OCTA111010374101107
Jun 17–24Pulse Asia111010354001106
Mar 14–19Publicus Asia112001354010105
Mar 11–14 OCTA112010364101107
Mar 6–10 Pulse Asia112010374001107
Feb 21–29Oculum112011364001107
2023
Dec 10–14 OCTA111010363001116
Sep 30–Oct 4 OCTA112010363001106
Sep 20–30 RP-MDF111021363101106
Apr 15–18 SWS111000363001116

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Joahna Lei . Casilao . June 18, 2024 . Erwin Tulfo keeps lead in OCTA's senatorial survey . GMANetwork.com . June 19, 2024 . en-US.
  2. Web site: June 2024 Ulat ng Bayan Senatorial Pre-Election Preference probe . July 15, 2024 . Pulse Asia . en-US.
  3. Web site: Former President Duterte slips from top spot in 2025 Senatorial race - PAHAYAG Survey . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20240630191903/https://www.publicusasia.com/posts/press%20release/former-president-duterte-slips-from-top-spot-in-2025-senatorial-race-pahayag-survey . 2024-06-30 . 2024-06-30 . www.publicusasia.com . en.
  4. Web site: April 4, 2024 . Erwin Tulfo leads OCTA Research senatorial survey . GMANetwork.com . April 4, 2024 . en-US.
  5. Web site: March 2024 Nationwide Survey on 2025 Senatorial Election . April 4, 2024 . Pulse Asia . en-US.
  6. Web site: January 2, 2024 . Pelonia . Ada . Erwin Tulfo leads OCTA's 2025 senatorial survey anew . April 4, 2024 . DZRH . en-US.
  7. Web site: De Vera-Ruiz . Ellalyn . October 23, 2023 . Erwin Tulfo still most preferred bet for 2025 senatorial race — survey . April 4, 2024 . Manila Bulletin . en-US.
  8. Web site: Sotto, Go lead 2025 senatorial survey — RPMD . October 16, 2023 . Manila Standard . April 4, 2024.
  9. Web site: June 13, 2023 . SWS confirms survey for Mr. Arnel Ty on voting preferences for Senators (aided) . March 31, 2023 . SWS . en-US.
  10. Web site: Untalan . Sherylin . 2024-04-30 . Ex-president Duterte, Sotto, Tulfo top potential senatorial bets in survey . 2024-07-01 . GMA News Online . en.