Opinion polling for the 2024 French legislative election explained

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the snap 2024 French legislative election, which will be held in two rounds on 30 June and 7 July 2024. Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission and utilize the quota method. Sample sizes listed are for registered voters, and polls are listed in reverse chronological then alphabetical order by name of institute.

National polling

First round

The 20:00 CEST estimations made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout	EXG	NFP				DVG	ECO	ENS	DVC	DSV	DVD	LR (CNI)	RN and allies		REC	REG	Others
Ministry of the Interior			66.71%	1.14%	28.21%				1.57%	0.57%	21.28%	1.22%	0.28%	3.60%	6.57%	3.96%	29.26%	0.75%	0.97%	0.63%
Elabe	20:00 CEST	67.5%	1.5%	28.5%				1.5%	–	22.0%		0.5%	10.5%		33.0%		0.5%	–	2.0%
Harris Interactive	67.0%	–	29.6%					–	22.4%		–	10.0%		34.2%		1.0%	–	2.8%
Ifop	67.0%	1.3%	29.1%				–	–	21.5%	–	–	10.0%		34.2%		0.6%	–	3.3%
Ipsos	65.5%	1.2%	28.1%				1.8%	–	20.3%	1.4%	0.3%	10.2%		4.0%	30.0%	0.6%	–	2.1%
OpinionWay	67.5%	1.5%	29.0%				–	–	22.0%	–	–	9.0%		34.0%		1.0%	–	3.5%
Harris Interactive		2,182	–	0.5%	28%				1%	–	20%	1%	0.5%	2%	6%	3%	34%	2%	–	2%
Ipsos		10,286	64%	1%	29%				1%	–	20%	1.5%	0.5%	8%		4%	32%	1%	–	2%
Ifop		2,824	67%	1%	29%				1%	–	20.5%	0.5%	–	7%		36.5%		1.5%	–	3%
Elabe		1,871	64%	1%	27.5%				2%	–	20%	0.5%	0.5%	9%		36%		1.5%	–	2%
Odoxa		1,896	66%	1%	27.5%				1.5%	1%	21%	–	–	2%	7%	35%		1.5%	–	2.5%
OpinionWay		1,058	65%	1%	28%				1%	<1%	20%	–	–	2%	6%	37%		1%	–	4%
Cluster17		2,465	65%	1.5%	29.5%				1%	–	20%	1%	–	1.5%	7.5%	4%	31%	1.5%	–	1.5%
Ifop		2,823	66%	0.5%	29%				1%	–	21%	1%	–	6.5%		36%		1.5%	–	3.5%
Harris Interactive		2,014	–	0.5%	27%				1%	–	21%	0.5%	0.5%	2%	6%	3%	34%	2%	–	2.5%
OpinionWay		1,035	–	1%	28%				1%	1%	20%	–	–	2%	7%	36%		2%	–	2%
Ifop		2,343	66%	1%	28.5%				1%	–	21%	1%	–	6%		36%		1%	–	4.5%
Ifop		2,335	64.5%	1%	28.5%				0.5%	–	21%	1%	–	6.5%		36%		1.5%	–	4%
Cluster17		2,470	64.5%	1.5%	30%				1.5%	–	19.5%	1%	–	1.5%	7.5%	4%	30.5%	1.5%	–	1.5%
Harris Interactive		2,004	–	1%	27%				1%	–	20%	1%	0.5%	2%	7%	4%	33%	2%	–	1.5%
Ipsos		11,820	63%	1%	29%				1%	–	19.5%	1.5%	0.5%	8%		4%	32%	1.5%	–	2%
OpinionWay		3,040	58%	1%	28%				1%	<1%	19%	–	–	4%	7%	36%		1%	–	3%
Ifop		1,843	63.5%	1%	29.5%				1%	–	20.5%	1%	–	7%		36%		1%	–	3%
Ifop		1,853	64%	1.5%	29%				1%	–	21%	1%	–	7%		35.5%		1%	–	3%
Elabe		1,870	63%	1%	27%				2%	–	20%	0.5%	0.5%	10%		36%		1.5%	–	1.5%
Ifop		2,317	64%	1%	29%				1%	–	21.5%	1%	–	6.5%		35%		1.5%	–	3.5%
Harris Interactive		2,004	–	1%	26%				1%	–	21%	1%	0.5%	2%	6%	2%	33%	3%	–	3.5%
Ipsos		2,000	62%	1.5%	29.5%				1%	–	19.5%	1%	1.5%		7%	4%	31.5%	2%	–	1.5%
Odoxa		1,861	64%	2%	28%				3%	1.5%	19%	–	–	1%	7%	33%		3.5%	–	2%
OpinionWay		1,009	–	1%	28%				1%	<1%	22%	–	–	3%	6%	35%		1%	–	3%
Ifop		1,861	64%	1%	29%				1%	–	22%	1%	–	6%		34%		2%	–	4%
OpinionWay		1,057	–	<1%	27%				2%	1%	20%	–	–	2%	7%	35%		2%	–	4%
Cluster17		2,654	60.5%	1%	30%				3%	–	19%	–	–	2.5%	7%	32%		2.5%	–	3%
Ifop		1,131	62%	1.5%	28%				3%	–	18%	–	0.5%	2%	5%	4%	33%	3%	–	2%
Ifop		1,114	63%	1%	26%				3.5%	–	19%	–	1%	1.5%	7%		35%<	-- RN -->	3%	–	3%
OpinionWay		1,011	–	1%	25%				2%	2%	20%	–	–	2%	7%		33% <	-- RN -->	3%	–	5%
Cluster17		2,764	60%	1%	28.5%				3%	1.5%	18%	1%	1.5%	2.5%	7%		29.5%	3.5%	1%	2%
Elabe		1,422	57%	1%	28%				5%	–	18%	–	–	2%	6.5%		31%	4%	–	4.5%
OpinionWay		1,019	–	1%	25%				3%	1%	19%	–	–	1%	9%		32%<	-- RN -->	4%	–	5%
Ifop	1,089	–	1%	25%				5%	–	18%	–	0.5%	1.5%	9%		35%	4%	–	1%
	1%		11%	19%			3%	–	17%	–	<0.5%	2%	8%		34%	4%	–	1%
	1%		11%	2%	6%	13%	2%	–	16%	–	0.5%	1%	8%		35%	3.5%	–	1%
OpinionWay		1,095	–	1%	23%				4%	2%	18%	–	–	2%	8%		33%	5%	–	4%
Harris Interactive		2,340	–	3%	22%				9%	–	19%	–	–	9%			34%	4%	–	–
Ifop	1,100	–	1.5%	24%				6%	–	19%	–	1%	3%	11%		28%	5%	–	1.5%
	1%		10%	4%	9%	8%	2%	–	18%	–	1%	3%	10%		27%	6%	–	1%
Elabe		1,699	–	1%	25.5%				3%	–	21.5%	–	1.5%	1%	11.5%		24.5%	4.5%	–	6%
Ifop	1,094	–	1%	26%				5%	–	22%	–	1%	2%	10%		26%	5%	–	2%
	1%		11%	3%	9%	7%	3%	–	21%	–	1%	1%	10%		26%	5%	–	2%
Harris Interactive		2,108	–	1%	24%				6%	–	24%	1%	1%	3%	10%		22%	4%	–	4%
Cluster17		2,096	56.9%	1.5%	24.5%				3%	1%	25%	0.5%	2%	2%	10.5%		20%	5%	1%	4%
Ifop	1,396	–	1.5%	25%				4%	–	27%	–	0.5%	2%	11%		21%	5.5%	–	2.5%
	1.5%		11%	3%	7%	8%	2%	–	26%	–	0%	3%	11%		21%	5%	–	1.5%
Ministry of the Interior			47.51%	1.17%	25.66%				3.70%	2.67%	25.75%	1.25%	1.13%	2.33%	11.29%		18.68%	4.24%	1.28%	0.85%

Seat projections

Even though polls since the publication of the official list of candidates by the Ministry of the Interior ask about the specific candidates within each constituency, seat projections should be treated with a significant level of precaution due to their numerous sources of uncertainty which include but are not limited to:

• the large historical error associated with these seat projections outside of the margins of uncertainty reported by pollsters;
• the fact that the legislative election is based on two rounds of voting with 577 varying configurations of candidates in different constituencies, rather than a national party list vote;
• the number of constituencies with second rounds featuring more than two candidates (due to the threshold of 12.5% of registered voters to appear in the second round);
• the need to make inferences about first-to-second round vote transfers between candidates based on historical voting patterns;
• the fact that only residents of metropolitan France are usually surveyed, excluding constituencies of overseas France and constituencies for French residents overseas;
• the unpredictability of eliminated candidates' voting instructions in the aftermath of the first round and candidate withdrawals in constituencies with three or more candidates advancing to the second round; and
• the fact that these projections are agnostic to local factors such as the strength of specific incumbent deputies because they are not made on a constituency-by-constituency basis (and no national polls have a large enough sample size to detect such anomalies), and are instead based on simulations using the aforementioned inferences on the basis of national-level polling with a representative sample in terms of gender, age, region, urbanicity, and socio-economic status (among other variables) projected onto each constituency.

Due to these uncertainties, certain polling institutes opt not to release seat projections alongside topline voting intention figures prior to the first round, and only publish such projections after the results of that initial voting is known.

These seat projections are not subject to the same regulations of the national polling committee as regular voting intention polls are.

The precautions above also apply to the estimations released by pollsters at 20:00 CEST on the day of the first round, though may be slightly more reliable due to asking about several second-round hypotheses based on large number of survey interviews conducted in the hours just prior to the day of the vote. As with the vote percentage estimations after the first round, seat projections produced after the second round made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier. At least 289 seats are needed for an absolute majority.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout	NFP				DVG	ENS			DVC	DVD	LR (CNI)	RN and allies		DSV	Others
Ministry of the Interior			66.63%	180				12	159			6	27	39	17	125	0	12
Elabe	20:00 CEST	67.1%	175–205				11–13	150–175				60–70		115–150		0–1	10–14
Harris Interactive	67.1%	83–90	8–10	37–41	58–70	13	150–182				60–75		8–18	102–140	–	10–15
Ifop	67.5%	180–215				10	150–180			–	60–65		120–150		–	5–6
Ipsos	67.0%	68–74	10–12	32–36	63–69	13–16	95–105	31–37	24–28	6–8	57–67		12–16	120–136	–	22–30
OpinionWay	67.0%	180–210					155–175				46–56		135–155		–	15–25
Cluster17		1,401	–	165–195				–	130–160			–	–	30–50	170–210		–	15–30
Harris Interactive		2,951	–	168–198				–	115–145			–	–	32–63	185–215		–	15–30
Ifop		2,859	69%	155–185				10–18	120–150			–	50–65		170–210		–	5–15
Elabe		2,005	65%	165–190					120–140			–	35–50		200–230		–	10–12
Ifop		1,916	68%	170–200				–	95–125			–	25–45		210–240		–	15–27
Ipsos		10,101	68%	58–68	7–9	29–37	51–61	14–16	78–94	23–31	17–23	6–8	57–67		18–24	157–181	–	8–12
Odoxa		952	–	140–180					115–155			–	40–60		210–250		–	10–20
OpinionWay		3,355	–	145–175				–	130–162			–	38–50		205–230		–	8–12
OpinionWay		–	–	150–180				–	125–155			–	38–50		205–230		–	8–12
Harris Interactive		3,008	–	159–183				–	110–135			–	–	30–50	190–220		–	17–31
Elabe	Most recent	–	120–140				11–12	90–125				35–45		255–295		0–1	10–14
Harris Interactive	140–190					70–120				30–50		30–45	210–260	0–2	10–20
Ifop	180–200				–	60–90			–	30–50		240–270		–	13–21
Ipsos	58–72	6–12	28–38	33–43	11–19	53–71	13–19	4–10	–	41–61		26–36	204–244	–	22–30
OpinionWay	130–170					65–105				30–50		250–300		–	24–30
Harris Interactive		2,182	–	120–150				–	80–130			–	–	30–50	20–35	220–260	0–2	10–20
Ifop		2,824	–	170–200				10–18	70–100			–	30–60		225–265		–	1–5
Elabe		1,871	–	155–175					85–105			–	30–40		260–295		–	8–10
Odoxa		1,896	–	150–190					70–110			–	15–45		265–305		–	–
Cluster17		2,465	–	180–220				–	65–110			–	–	25–35	210–255		–	20–30
Ifop		2,823	–	180–210				5–9	75–110			–	25–50		220–260		–	6–10
Harris Interactive		2,014	–	125–155				–	75–125			–	–	30–50	20–35	230–270	0–2	10–20
Ifop		2,343	–	180–210				5–9	75–110			–	23–50		220–260		–	5–9
Ifop		2,335	–	180–210				5–9	75–110			–	25–50		220–260		–	4–8
Cluster17		2,470	–	180–230				–	65–100			–	–	25–40	210–250		–	20–30
Harris Interactive		2,044	–	150–180				–	85–130			–	–	30–50	15–30	215–245	0–2	10–20
Ifop		1,843	–	185–215				6–10	70–100			–	30–50		220–260		–	3–7
Ifop		1,853	–	180–210				7–11	75–105			–	40–60		210–250		–	3–8
Elabe		1,870	–	150–170					90–110			–	35–45		250–280		–	10–12
Ifop		2,317	–	180–210				8–12	80–110			–	40–60		200–240		–	5–10
Harris Interactive		2,004	–	135–165				–	95–130			–	–	30–50	15–30	220–250	0–2	10–20
Odoxa		1,861	–	160–210					70–120			–	10–50		250–300		–	–
Cluster17		2,654	–	190–240				–	70–100			–	–	20–30	200–250		–	20–30
Cluster17		2,764	–	190–235				10–14	70–100			–	–	23–35		195–245	–	10–16
Elabe		1,422	–	150–190					90–130			–	30–40			220–270	–	10–20
Harris-Interactive		2,340	–	115–145				–	125–155			–	40–55			235–265	0–2	5–20
Ipsos		4,000	–	55–79				20–22	117–165			3	7–8	44–60		243–305	–	10–11
Elabe		1,699	–	150–180				15–20	130–155				60–75			150–175	1–2	12–15
Harris-Interactive		2,108	–	158–168					234–244				69–79			91–100		8–14
	Ministry of the Interior			46.23%	131				22	245			4	74			89	1	11

By second round configuration

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout	NFP (any party)				NFP (depends on party)	ENS	LR (CNI)	RN	/blank/ null vote/ don't know
CSA		1,009	–	32%	–	–	–	–	–	–	41%	27%
OpinionWay	693	64%	36%					34%	–	30%	–
		860	62%	47%					–	–	53%	–
		813	63%	–	–	–	–	–	52%	–	48%	–
Ifop	1,118	–	42%	–	–	–	–	58%	–	–	–
	50%		–	–	–	–	–	–	50%	–
	–		–	48%		–	52%	–	–	–
	–		–	53%		–	–	–	47%	–
	–		–	–	–	–	53%	–	47%	–
	–		–	–	–	–	–	56%	44%	–
Ipsos	10,286	–	32%	–	–	–	–	–	–	41%	27%
	–		–	38%	–	–	–	–	41%	21%
	–		–	–	40%	–	–	–	39%	21%
OpinionWay	3,040	–	26%					29%	–	–	45%
	33%					–	–	40%	27%
	–	–	–	–	–	29%	–	34%	37%
Odoxa	1,005	–	25%				9%	–	–	38%	28%
	17%				10%	21%	–	34%	18%
OpinionWay	1,044	–	33%					–	–	41%	26%
	–		–	–	–	–	40%	–	37%	23%

By first round vote

NFP–ENS–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		NFP/DVG	ENS	RN/UXD	None of these
Elabe	2,005		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	87%	3%	1%	9%
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	2%	83%	0%	15%
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	1%	1%	87%	11%
OpinionWay	693		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	96%	1%	2%	1%
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	9%	86%	0%	5%
		data-sort-value="2"	LR/DVD	5%	18%	60%	17%
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	1%	1%	98%	0%

NFP–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		NFP/DVG	RN/UXD	None of these
Elabe	2,005		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	86%	3%	11%
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	32%	18%	50%
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	1%	92%	7%
OpinionWay	860		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	98%	0%	2%
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	48%	16%	36%
		data-sort-value="2"	LR/DVD	18%	51%	31%
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	0%	99%	1%

LFI–ENS

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		LFI	ENS	None of these
Ifop	1,118		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	88%	12%	–
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	10%	90%	–
		data-sort-value="2"	LR/DVD	23%	77%	–
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	25%	75%	–

LFI–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		LFI	RN/UXD	None of these
CSA	1,009		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	87%	5%	8%
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	37%	13%	50%
		data-sort-value="2"	LR/DVD	15%	38%	47%
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	0%	98%	2%
Ifop	1,118		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	98%	2%	–
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	66%	34%	–
		data-sort-value="2"	LR/DVD	41%	59%	–
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	2%	98%	–

PS/LE–ENS

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		PS/LE	ENS	None of these
Ifop	1,118		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	94%	6%	–
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	14%	86%	–
		data-sort-value="2"	LR/DVD	31%	69%	–
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	29%	71%	–

PS/LE–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		PS/LE	RN/UXD	None of these
Ifop	1,118		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	95%	5%	–
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	77%	23%	–
		data-sort-value="2"	LR/DVD	52%	48%	–
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	2%	98%	–

ENS–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		ENS	RN/UXD	None of these
Elabe	2,005		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	62%	6%	32%
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	81%	8%	11%
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	2%	88%	10%
OpinionWay	813		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	56%	17%	27%
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	93%	5%	2%
		data-sort-value="2"	LR/DVD	56%	40%	4%
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	2%	97%	1%
Ifop	1,118		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	84%	16%	–
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	92%	8%	–
		data-sort-value="2"	LR/DVD	57%	43%	–
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	3%	97%	–

LR–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		LR/DVD	RN/UXD	None of these
Elabe	2,005		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	57%	5%	38%
		data-sort-value="2"	LR/DVD	90%	2%	8%
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	1%	87%	12%
Ifop	1,118		data-sort-value="0"	NFP/DVG	87%	13%	–
		data-sort-value="1"	ENS	90%	10%	–
		data-sort-value="2"	LR/DVD	81%	19%	–
		data-sort-value="3"	RN/UXD	5%	95%	–

By constituency

Because the configuration of the second round, if any, is contingent on the level of turnout in the first round, only the top-placed candidate is highlighted in first-round polls below.

Alpes-Maritimes's 1st

See also: Alpes-Maritimes's 1st constituency.

First round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Alain Langouet	Olivier Salerno	Graig Monetti	Lalla Chama Ben Moulay	Virgile Vanier-Guérin	Éric Ciotti	Jean-Claude Wahid Spach	Maxime Bovis
Ministry of the Interior			0.62%	26.62%	22.79%	2.81%	5.78%	41.04%	0.27%	0.07%
Ifop		543	0.5%	26%	22%	3%	5.5%	42%	0.5%	0.5%

Second round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Olivier Salerno	Graig Monetti	Éric Ciotti
Ministry of the Interior			32.13%	22.73%	45.14%
Ifop	543	27%	27%	46%
	40%	–	60%

Calvados's 6th

See also: Calvados's 6th constituency.

Second round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Élisabeth Borne	Nicolas Calbrix
Ministry of the Interior			56.36%	43.64%
Ifop		611	54%	46%

Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd

See also: Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd constituency.

First round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Bernadette Gasc	Xavier Czapla	Jérôme Cahuzac	Guillaume Lepers	Annick Cousin
Ministry of the Interior			1.01%	18.36%	14.56%	24.99%	41.08%
Ifop		561	1%	19%	23%	19%	38%

Second round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Xavier Czapla	Jérôme Cahuzac	Guillaume Lepers	Annick Cousin
Ministry of the Interior			–	–	54.13%	45.87%
Ifop	561	22%	31%	–	47%
	–	49%	–	51%

Nord's 10th

See also: Nord's 10th constituency.

First round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Christophe Charlon	Leslie Mortreux	Gérald Darmanin	Jérôme Garcia	Bastien Verbrugghe	Gustave Viguie-Desplaces	Marcelin Brazon
Ministry of the Interior			1.10%	24.83%	36.03%	2.98%	34.31%	0.51%	0.25%
Ifop		602	1.5%	24%	42%	2.5%	28%	1%	1%

Second round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Leslie Mortreux	Gérald Darmanin	Bastien Verbrugghe
Ministry of the Interior			–	61.37%	38.63%
Ifop	602	–	65%	35%
	27%	44%	29%

Seine-Saint-Denis's 7th

See also: Seine-Saint-Denis's 7th constituency.

First round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Aurélie Jochaud	Elsa Caudron	Yannick Duterte	Sabrina Ali Benali	Alexis Corbière	Éric Verhaeghe	Pauline Breteau	Antoine Toche	Françoise Trova	Sébastien Atlani
Ministry of the Interior			0.63%	0.30%	0.33%	36.38%	40.19%	0.95%	10.06%	1.31%	9.69%	0.14%
Ifop		550	1%	0%	1%	35%	40%	1.5%	10%	1.5%	10%	0%

Second round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Sabrina Ali Benali	Alexis Corbière
Ministry of the Interior			42.84%	57.16%
Ifop		550	46%	54%

See also

• Opinion polling for the 2022 French legislative election
• Opinion polling for the 2024 EP election in France
• Opinion polling on the Emmanuel Macron presidency
• Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election