Opinion polling for the 2023 Spanish local elections (Region of Murcia) explained
In the run up to the 2023 Spanish local elections, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in local entities in Spain. Results of such polls for municipalities in the Region of Murcia are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous local elections, held on 26 May 2019, to the day the next elections will be held, on 28 May 2023.
Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll.
Municipalities
Abanilla
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | IUMA | Lead |
|---|
| | |
|---|
| Murcia Electoral[1] [2] [3] | 2–9 Jun 2020 | 115 | ? | | 50.5
| 42.6
| 6.4
| 7.9 |
|
| 2019 municipal election | 26 May 2019 | | 76.3 | | 47.5
| 44.7
| 7.4
| 2.8 |
| |
Alguazas
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | UxA | | | | Lead |
|---|
| | | | | |
|---|
| Murcia Electoral | 2–9 Jun 2020 | 152 | ? | | 41.5
| 27.5
| 16.4
| 10.9
| 1.4
| 1.8
| 14.0 |
|
| 2019 municipal election | 26 May 2019 | | 68.7 | | 39.8
| 30.9
| 18.4
| 5.7
| 2.8
| 1.8
| 8.9 |
| |
Cartagena
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | SíC | Lead |
|---|
| | | | | | | |
|---|
| Celeste-Tel/Sí Cartagena[4] | 2–11 May 2023 | 800 | ? | ?
| | 30.0
| 17.5
| ?
| ?
| ?
| – | ?
| ? |
| GAD3/Vocento[5] | 26–27 Apr 2023 | 550 | ? | 28.3
| | 30.1
| 13.2
| 1.7
| 13.3
| 5.5
| – | 5.1
| 1.8 |
| Sigma Dos/La Verdad[6] [7] | 20–28 Sep 2022 | 600 | ? | 25.5
| | 27.4
| 19.3
| 3.6
| 10.4
| 8.0
| – | – | 1.9 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[8] | 13 May–6 Aug 2021 | 304 | ? | 29.8
| | 29.9
| 21.1
| 2.9
| 9.5
| 4.8
| – | – | 0.1 |
| Murcia Electoral[9] | 29 Jul–16 Aug 2020 | 357 | ? | | 30.1
| 23.6
| 19.6
| 6.0
| 10.0
| 7.1
| 1.3
| – | 6.5 |
| Murcia Electoral[10] | 2–9 Jun 2020 | 272 | ? | | 29.6
| 23.4
| 18.7
| 5.0
| 10.4
| 8.3
| 1.4
| – | 6.2 |
|
| 2019 municipal election | 26 May 2019 | | 57.1 | | 27.4
| 25.5
| 21.7
| 8.2
| 8.0
| 6.9
| 1.1
| – | 1.9 |
| |
Cieza
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | Lead |
|---|
| | | | | |
|---|
| Celeste-Tel/Latalaya[11] [12] | 2–12 Jan 2023 | 400 | ? | | 39.9
| 30.9
| 11.2
| 2.7
| 8.2
| – | 9.0 |
|
| 2019 municipal election | 26 May 2019 | | 57.2 | | 41.2
| 23.2
| 8.4
| 7.9
| 7.8
| 4.1
| 18.0 |
| |
Lorca
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | CL | | Lead |
|---|
| | | | | | | |
|---|
| Murcia Electoral | 29 Jul–16 Aug 2020 | 183 | ? | | 37.3
| 34.7
| 8.6
| 9.8
| 4.6
| 1.6
| 1.4
| 1.3
| 2.6 |
| Murcia Electoral | 2–9 Jun 2020 | 212 | ? | 35.0
| | 36.1
| 8.4
| 10.9
| 5.0
| 2.0
| 1.1
| 1.1
| 1.1 |
|
| 2019 municipal election | 26 May 2019 | | 63.8 | | 37.4
| 36.1
| 7.6
| 7.5
| 5.4
| 2.8
| 1.6
| 1.0
| 1.3 |
| |
Molina de Segura
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | Lead |
|---|
| | | | | | |
|---|
| Murcia Electoral | 2–9 Jun 2020 | 232 | ? | | 37.1
| 29.3
| 12.0
| 12.2
| 3.6
| 2.1
| 1.0
| 7.8 |
|
| 2019 municipal election | 26 May 2019 | | 63.0 | | 43.0
| 27.4
| 11.4
| 8.8
| 5.0
| 1.9
| 0.7
| 15.6 |
| |
Murcia
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | CM | | | | | Lead |
|---|
| | | | | | | | | |
|---|
| GAD3/Vocento[13] | 26–27 Apr 2023 | 400 | ? | | 42.7
| 26.4
| 0.8
| 18.9
| | | – | – | – | 5.8
| 16.3 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[14] [15] | 2–10 Jan 2023 | 332 | ? | | 42.7
| 27.0
| 3.3
| 15.5
| | | – | – | – | 5.8
| 15.7 |
| InvyMark[16] | 12–18 Dec 2022 | 600 | ? | | 38.0
| 27.7
| 2.0
| 22.0
| | | – | – | – | 5.8
| 10.3 |
| Sigma Dos/La Verdad[17] [18] | 20–28 Sep 2022 | 600 | ? | | 43.8
| 30.2
| 2.5
| 13.3
| | | – | – | – | 6.9
| 13.6 |
| InvyMark[19] | 27 Jun–6 Jul 2022 | 1,500 | ? | | 35.2
| 30.1
| 3.0
| 21.1
| | | – | – | – | 5.7
| 5.1 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[20] | 14 Mar 2021 | 600 | ? | | 40.8
| 35.0
| 3.0
| 11.4
| 5.6
| – | – | – | – | – | 5.8 |
| Sigma Dos/La Verdad[21] [22] | 10–12 Mar 2021 | 600 | ? | | 41.8
| 28.8
| 3.7
| 18.7
| 4.8
| – | – | – | – | – | 13.0 |
| Murcia Electoral | 2–9 Jun 2020 | 270 | ? | | 32.6
| 27.4
| 10.3
| 14.9
| 7.4
| 1.0
| 1.9
| 0.8
| 2.7
| – | 5.2 |
|
| 2019 municipal election | 26 May 2019 | | 64.6 | | 34.9
| 28.9
| 13.5
| 10.2
| 6.4
| 2.2
| 2.0
| 0.8
| – | – | 6.0 |
| |
Puerto Lumbreras
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | Lead |
|---|
| | | | | | |
|---|
| Murcia Electoral | 29 Jul–16 Aug 2020 | 148 | ? | 38.0
| | 39.6
| 7.6
| 7.8
| – | – | – | 1.6 |
|
| 2019 municipal election | 26 May 2019 | | 72.1 | | 40.0
| 39.5
| 7.1
| 5.6
| 3.4
| 3.0
| 0.8
| 0.5 |
| |
San Javier
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | PL | | Lead |
|---|
| | | | | | |
|---|
| Murcia Electoral | 29 Jul–16 Aug 2020 | 183 | ? | | 51.2
| 20.5
| 4.6
| 8.8
| 6.6
| 4.0
| 2.4
| 30.7 |
|
| 2019 municipal election | 26 May 2019 | | 60.6 | | 45.4
| 21.9
| 9.5
| 7.8
| 6.9
| 4.1
| 3.9
| 23.5 |
| |
Yecla
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | Lead |
|---|
| | | | |
|---|
| Murcia Electoral | 2–9 Jun 2020 | 156 | ? | | 44.0
| 21.6
| 13.6
| 5.6
| 14.4
| 22.4 |
|
| 2019 municipal election | 26 May 2019 | | 71.0 | | 53.1
| 25.7
| 10.9
| 9.4
| – | 27.4 |
| |
Notes and References
- Web site: Barómetro Región de Murcia. Elecciones Locales . es . Murcia Electoral . 10 June 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200629230250/https://murciaelectoral.es/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BAR%C3%93METRO-MURCIA-ELECTORAL-ELECCIONES-LOCALES-1.pdf . 2020-06-29 .
- Web site: Sondeos de Murcia Electoral a las elecciones locales . es . Murcia Electoral . 10 June 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200626120106/https://murciaelectoral.es/sondeos-de-murcia-electoral-a-las-elecciones-locales/ . 2020-06-26 .
- Web site: Sondeos de Murcia Electoral a las elecciones locales de Abanilla, Alguazas, Cartagena, Lorca, Molina de Segura, Murcia y Yecla . es . Murcia.com . 15 June 2020.
- Web site: Arroyo ganaría las elecciones en Cartagena por la mínima a López, pero no podría gobernar . es . La Opinión de Murcia . 14 May 2023.
- Web site: Arroyo ganaría por la mínima en Cartagena pero tendría que pactar con Vox y Castejón para gobernar . es . La Verdad . 21 May 2023.
- Web site: Arroyo ganaría las elecciones en Cartagena por la mínima a López, pero no podría gobernar . es . La Verdad . 9 October 2022.
- Web site: CARTAGENA. Encuesta SigmaDos 09/10/2022: PODEMOS-IU 8,0% (2), PSOE 19,3% (6), MC 25,5% (7/8), Cs 3,6%, PP 27,4% (8/9), VOX 10,4% (3) . es . Electograph . 9 October 2022.
- Web site: Cartagena (11Ag): empate 'perfecto' entre PP y MC-CCD . es . Electomanía . 11 August 2021.
- Web site: Una encuesta vuelve a dar a MC como primera fuerza en Cartagena de haber elecciones . es . La Opinión de Murcia . 25 August 2020.
- Web site: MC volvería a ganar las elecciones municipales con cerca del 30% de los votos con 9 concejales . es . Cartagena Actualidad . 15 June 2020.
- Web site: PSOE e IU-Verdes volverían a sumar una nueva mayoría absoluta en Cieza . es . Latalaya . 10 February 2023.
- Web site: [MUN] CIEZA. Encuesta Celeste-Tel 10/02/2023: IU-VERDES 11,2% (2), PSOE 39,9% (10), CS 2,7%, PP 30,9% (7), VOX 8,2% (2) ]. es . Electográfica . 10 February 2023.
- Web site: Ballesta sumaría más que toda la izquierda y se quedaría a un edil de la mayoría absoluta en Murcia . es . La Verdad . 21 May 2023.
- Web site: El PP roza la mayoría absoluta en el Ayuntamiento de Murcia y arrebataría al PSOE la Alcaldía . es . El Mundo . 16 January 2023.
- Web site: [MUN] MURCIA. Encuesta SigmaDos 16/01/2023: PODEMOS-IU 5,8% (1/2), PSOE 27,0% (8/9), Cs 3,3%, PP 42,7% (14), VOX 15,5% (5) ]. es . El Mundo . 16 January 2023.
- Web site: Vox se come el hueco de Cs, con seis escaños más y el apoyo de uno de cada cinco murcianos . es . La Opinión de Murcia . 4 January 2023.
- Web site: Ballesta rozaría hoy la mayoría absoluta en Murcia pese a crecer el apoyo al alcalde Serrano . es . La Verdad . 9 October 2022.
- Web site: MURCIA. Encuesta SigmaDos 09/10/2022: PODEMOS-IU 6,9% (2), PSOE 30,2% (10/11), Cs 2,5%, PP 43,8% (13/14), VOX 13,3% (4) . es . Electograph . 9 October 2022.
- Web site: MURCIA. Encuesta InvyMark 17/07/2022: PODEMOS-IU 5,7% (1/2), PSOE 30,1% (9/10), Cs 3,0%, PP 35,2% (10/11), VOX 21,1% (7/8) . es . Electograph . 17 July 2022.
- Web site: MurciaPanel (14M): Cs quedaría fuera del Ayuntamiento y Vox sería necesario para formar una mayoría . es . Electomanía . 14 March 2021.
- Web site: Los murcianos dan la espalda a Ciudadanos . es . La Verdad . 14 March 2021.
- Web site: MURCIA. Encuesta SigmaDos: PODEMOS-EQUO 4,8% (0/1), PSOE 28,8% (9/10), Cs 3,7% (0/1), PP 41,8% (13/14), VOX 18,7% (5) . es . Electograph . 15 March 2021.
