Opinion polling for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election explained

In the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, various organisations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held on 5 May 2016, to the 2021 election, held on 6 May 2021.[1]

Graphical summary

This graph shows opinion poll results with trendlines for the 30-day moving averages. The SNP led in all polls, with the Conservatives and Labour coming second or third behind them.

Key SNP – Scottish National Party
Conservative – Scottish Conservatives
Labour – Scottish Labour
Lib Dem – Scottish Liberal Democrats
Green – Scottish Greens
UKIP – UK Independence Party
Reform – Reform UK
SSP – Scottish Socialist Party
Alba – Alba Party
AFU – All for Unity

Constituency vote

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 73 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.

Poll results

PollsterClientDate(s)
conducted
Sample
size
SNPConLabLib DemGreenUKIPRef UKOtherLead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2021 Scottish Parliament election47.7%21.9%21.6%6.9%1.3%0.0%0.6%25.8%
BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie[2]
YouGovThe Times1,14452%20%19%6%2%1%32%
Survation The Courier1,00849%21%21%8%1%1%28%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00142%25%22%8%3%17%
Ipsos MORISTV News1,50250%20%22%6%2%1%28%
OpiniumSky News1,01551%23%19%7%28%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,09648%21%20%7%3%1%27%
BMGThe Herald1,02349%19%21%9%28%
Channel 4 News leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie[3]
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00145%23%23%7%1%22%
Survation GMB1,00847%21%21%8%2%26%
PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,07545%20%22%8%4%23%
SurvationThe Sunday Post1,03750%21%21%7%1%1%29%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00146%25%20%6%3%21%
YouGovThe Times1,20449%21%21%6%1%2%28%
STV leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie[4]
PanelbaseBelieve in Scotland1,00247%23%20%6%4%24%
Lord AshcroftN/AN/A2,01749%22%15%8%5%27%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00749%23%18%6%3%26%
OpiniumSky News1,02353%21%18%6%1%32%
Ipsos MORISTV News1,03853%20%18%6%2%1%33%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,00949%22%20%6%2%27%
BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Slater[5]
SurvationThe Courier1,00049%21%20%9%1%28%
Former first minister Alex Salmond launches the Alba Party[6]
Find Out NowDaily Express1,02250%21%17%5%4%1%1%29%
YouGovThe TimesN/A50%24%17%5%2%2%26%
BMGThe Herald1,02148%21%20%8%1%1%27%
SurvationThe Courier1,51550%21%20%8%1%29%
OpiniumSky News1,09646%24%20%6%4%1%22%
SurvationScotland in Union1,01146%21%23%8%1%1%23%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00948%23%20%8%2%25%
YouGovThe Times1,10052%22%17%6%2%1%30%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,01347%23%20%7%2%1%24%
Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour[7]
[https: / www.dailyrecord.co.uk news politics nicola-sturgeon-course-win-slim-23582495 Survation Daily Record] SurvationDaily Record1,01150%21%20%7%3%2%29%
Ipsos MORISTV News1,03152%23%15%5%3%2%29%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00250%23%19%6%2%27%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,05952%20%17%6%3%32%
Survation / Scot Goes Pop SurvationScot Goes Pop1,02051%19%19%9%32%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,01649%20%20%8%4%29%
The Brexit Party is re-registered as Reform UK[8]
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,01352%19%19%7%3%33%
SurvationN/A1,01053%20%20%6%1%33%
Ipsos MORISTV News1,00655%22%14%6%1%1%33%
PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,02053%21%18%5%3%<1%32%
YouGovN/A1,08956%19%15%6%2%37%
SurvationN/A1,07154%19%18%8% data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" 2%35%
Ipsos MORISTV News1,04558%19%13%8%1%2%39%
Savanta ComResN/A1,00350%23%18%6%2%27%
JL PartnersPolitico1,01658%19%13%8%2%<1%39%
SurvationN/A1,01853%20%18%7%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" 2%33%
Savanta ComResN/A1,00851%24%17%6%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" 2%27%
YouGovThe Times1,14257%20%14%8%1%1%37%
Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives[9]
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02655%20%15%6%3%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%35%
PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,02253%21%16%6%3%<1%32%
PanelbaseWings Over Scotland1,08653%23%15%5%3%1%30%
YouGovN/A1,09554%23%12%8%2%1%31%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02351%26%14%6%3%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%25%
Jackson Carlaw is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives[10]
PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,01650%26%14%7%3%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%24%
SurvationProgress Scotland1,01951%23%17%7%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" 1%28%
2019 United Kingdom general election[11]
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02043%26%19%8%2%data-sort-value="0%" 2%data-sort-value="0%" <1%17%
YouGovThe Times1,00246%26%14%11%1%0%0% [12] 20%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,00943%26%17%9%2%data-sort-value="0%" 3%data-sort-value="0%" <1%17%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,00342%21%19%10%3%data-sort-value="0%" <1%4%data-sort-value="0%" <1%21%
YouGovThe Times1,05945%23%13%12%2%3%1% 22%
Shetland by-election[13]
Lorna Slater is elected co-leader of the Scottish Greens alongside Patrick Harvie[14]
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02442%20%16%11%3%data-sort-value="0%" <1%7%data-sort-value="0%" <1% [15] 22%
2019 European Parliament election
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02141%20%18%8%3%1%7%1% [16] 21%
YouGovThe Times1,02946%22%16%7%3%4%1% 24%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,01840%22%20%6%3%1%5%data-sort-value="0%" 2% [17] 18%
PanelbaseWings Over Scotland1,00241%27%19%8%3%2%data-sort-value="0%" <1%14%
SurvationScottish Daily Mail1,01143%24%22%9%2%19%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02841%25%23%6%3%1%data-sort-value="0%" <1%16%
PanelbaseConstitutional Commission1,05039%27%24%6%3%1%data-sort-value="0%" <1%12%
SurvationDaily Record1,01738%26%25%9%1%0%12%
Survation/SNPN/A1,01344%24%23%8%1%20%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02441%26%21%6%3%2%data-sort-value="0%" <1%15%
SurvationThe Sunday Post1,03643%24%23%9%2%19%
SurvationDaily Record1,00444%24%21%9%3%20%
PanelbaseWings Over Scotland1,01841%27%22%6%2%1%data-sort-value="0%" <1%14%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02140%28%24%6%2%data-sort-value="0%" <1%data-sort-value="0%" <1%12%
YouGovThe Times1,07541%27%22%6%2%1%1%14%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,03740%28%22%6%3%data-sort-value="0%" <1%data-sort-value="0%" <1%12%
SurvationDaily Record1,02942%25%25%6%2%17%
YouGovThe Times1,00238%26%23%7%3%2%0%12%
PanelbaseWings Over Scotland1,02239%26%25%6%2%data-sort-value="0%" <1%data-sort-value="0%" <1%13%
SurvationThe Sunday Post1,00639%24%28%7%2%11%
SurvationDaily Record1,01739%24%25%8%3%14%
Richard Leonard is elected leader of Scottish Labour[18]
YouGovThe Times1,13542%25%25%5%2%1%0%17%
SurvationScottish Daily Mail1,01642%26%25%7%2%16%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02142%28%22%6%2%data-sort-value="0%" <1%data-sort-value="0%" <1%14%
2017 United Kingdom general election[19]
2017 Scottish local elections[20]
YouGovThe Times1,02851%24%14%6%4%1%1%27%
YouGovThe Times1,13448%25%15%6%3%1%0%23%
BMGN/A1,01051%21%18%7%3%30%
YouGovThe Times1,03952%21%16%5%3%2%0%31%
SurvationScottish Daily Mail1,05550%21%18%8%4%29%
2016 Scottish Parliament election46.5%22.0%22.6%7.8%0.6%0.5%23.9%

Regional vote

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 56 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.

Poll results

PollsterClientdata-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
SNPConLabGreenLib DemAlbaUKIPRef UKSSPOtherdata-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"Lead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2021 Scottish Parliament election40.3%23.5%17.9%8.1%5.1%1.7%0.1%0.2%3.0%[21] 16.8%
BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie[22]
YouGovThe Times1,14438%22%16%13%5%3%0%0%3%[23] 16%
SurvationThe Courier1,00836%21%19%10%7%3%15%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00134%23%19%9%6%2%11%
Ipsos MORISTV News1,50239%23%18%12%4%2%0%0%2%16%
OpiniumSky News1,01541%23%17%8%6%3%18%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,09639%22%16%8%7%4%4%17%
BMGThe Herald1,02337%22%17%9%8%4%15%
Channel 4 News leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00136%22%19%10%5%2%8%14%
SurvationGMB1,00837%22%18%10%7%2%1%1%15%
PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,07536%21%18%10%6%6%[24] 15%
SurvationThe Sunday Post1,03735%20%22%10%7%3%1%1%2%13%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00138%23%17%7%5%1%7%15%
YouGovThe Times1,20439%22%17%10%5%2%1%2%17%
STV leaders debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie
PanelbaseBelieve in Scotland1,00236%22%17%9%6%6%4%[25] 14%
Lord AshcroftN/A2,01742%22%16%9%7%2%2%20%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00740%21%18%9%7%3%3%19%
OpiniumSky News1,02344%22%17%7%5%2%3%22%
Ipsos MORISTV News1,03838%21%18%12%6%3%2%17%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,00939%21%17%8%5%6%4%[26] 18%
BBC Scotland leaders debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Slater
SurvationThe Courier1,00038%18%19%11%8%3%1%1%1%19%
Former first minister Alex Salmond launches the Alba Party
Find Out NowDaily Express1,02242%21%16%11%5%2%2%21%
YouGovThe TimesN/A46%24%15%8%5%3%22%
BMGThe Herald1,02142%22%17%8%8%1%2%20%
SurvationThe Courier1,51539%19%20%11%7%1%2%19%
OpiniumSky News1,09642%22%19%7%5%4%20%
SurvationScotland in Union1,01139%21%20%10%8%2%18%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00940%24%18%10%6%2%16%
YouGovThe Times1,10045%21%16%6%5%3%4%24%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,01342%22%19%6%7%4%20%
Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour
SurvationDaily Record1,01138%21%20%11%7%3%17%
Ipsos MORISTV News1,03147%22%14%8%6%3%[27] 25%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,00239%21%21%10%9%3%18%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,05946%20%16%8%6%3%26%
SurvationScot Goes Pop1,02040%17%19%11%9%19%
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,01640%18%20%10%9%3%20%
The Brexit Party is re-registered as Reform UK
Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,01339%20%20%11%7%3%19%
SurvationN/A1,01041%18%20%10%7%1%21%
Ipsos MORISTV News1,00647%22%16%7%6%25%
PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,02046%20%18%8%6%3%26%
YouGovN/A1,08947%20%13%7%6%3%27%
SurvationN/A1,07143%17% 19% 10% 7%1% 2%data-sort-value="0%" 1%24%
Ipsos MORISTV News1,04548%18%14%9%8%30%
Savanta ComResN/A1,00341%21%18%11%7%1%20%
JL PartnersPolitico1,01653%19%13%5%8%34%
SurvationN/A1,01842%18%18%10%8%2%2%data-sort-value="0%" <1%24%
Savanta ComResN/A1,00843%21%17%10%8%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" 2%22%
YouGovThe Times1,14247%21%14%6%7%data-sort-value="0%" 1%4%1%26%
Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02650%18%15%8%6%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" 2%32%
PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,02248%19%16%7%8%2%29%
PanelbaseWings Over Scotland1,08648%22%15%7%6%1%26%
YouGovN/A1,09545%23%12%8%7%4%1%22%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02348%26%13%6%6%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" 1%22%
Jackson Carlaw is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,01647%25%14%7%7%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%22%
SurvationProgress Scotland1,01938%21%19%9%9%1%2%data-sort-value="0%" 17%
2019 United Kingdom general election
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02038%26%18%6%9%data-sort-value="0%" 2%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" 12%
YouGovThe Times1,00237%25%14%8%10%2%3%data-sort-value="0%" <1% 12%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,00939%25%17%6%9%data-sort-value="0%" 3%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" 14%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,00338%21%18%6%11%data-sort-value="0%" <1%4%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%17%
YouGovThe Times1,05939%20%11%8%13%1%5%3%data-sort-value="0%" <1% 19%
Shetland by-election
Lorna Slater is elected co-leader of the Scottish Greens alongside Patrick Harvie
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02439%20%16%7%10%data-sort-value="0%" <1%6%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1% 19%
23 May 20192019 European Parliament election[28]
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02137%19%18%7%8%2%6%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" 2%18%
YouGovThe Times1,02937%20%15%10%7%2%5%3%data-sort-value="0%" 2%17%
PanelbaseN/A1,01837%22%19%7%7%2%4%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" 2%15%
PanelbaseWings Over Scotland1,00236%26%19%6%9%3%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%10%
SurvationScottish Daily Mail1,01132%22%19%11%11%3%data-sort-value="0%" 1%10%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02838%26%22%6%7%1%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%12%
PanelbaseConstitutional Commission1,05037%26%22%6%6%2%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%11%
SurvationDaily Record1,01732%23%23%9%9%data-sort-value="0%" 4%9%
SurvationSNP1,01340%25%22%4%8%data-sort-value="0%" 2%15%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02435%26%20%7%8%2%data-sort-value="0%" 1%9%
SurvationThe Sunday Post1,03632%21%23%10%8%5%data-sort-value="0%" 0%9%
SurvationDaily Record1,00433%19%21%11%10%5%data-sort-value="0%" 1%12%
PanelbaseWings Over Scotland1,01836%27%23%6%7%1%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%9%
PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02136%26%23%7%6%1%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%10%
YouGovThe Times1,07532%26%21%9%7%1%3%data-sort-value="0%" <1%6%
SurvationDaily Record1,02933%23%23%9%8%3%data-sort-value="0%" 1%10%
YouGovThe Times1,00232%25%22%10%7%3%2%data-sort-value="0%" <1%7%
SurvationThe Sunday Post1,00632%21%24%10%10%3%data-sort-value="0%" 1%8%
SurvationDaily Record1,01733%22%25%8%8%3%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%8%
Richard Leonard is elected leader of Scottish Labour
YouGovThe Times1,13535%23%24%6%6%1%3%data-sort-value="0%" <1%11%
SurvationScottish Daily Mail1,01631%21%25%9%10%3%data-sort-value="0%" data-sort-value="0%" <1%6%
2017 United Kingdom general election
2017 Scottish local elections
YouGovThe Times1,02840%25%14%12%5%2%1%1%15%
YouGovThe Times1,13439%24%14%11%6%4%1%0%15%
BMGN/A1,01043%20%16%8%7%3%data-sort-value="0%" 1%23%
YouGovThe Times1,03945%21%15%9%6%2%data-sort-value="0%" 0%24%
SurvationScottish Daily Mail1,05541%20%16%12%7%4%data-sort-value="0%" 1%21%
2016 Scottish Parliament election41.7%22.9%19.1%6.6%5.2%2.0%0.5%2.4%18.8%

Methodology

Each polling organisation are members of the British Polling Council and uses slightly different methodology in their collection of data. All organisations remove voters who do not give a voting intention from their headline figures; this is usually ranges from 10% to 15% of respondents likely to vote. A brief description of each company's methods is as follows:

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 25 February 2016. Scottish Elections (Dates) Bill passes stage 3. 23 May 2019. Scottish Government.
  2. Web site: 4 May 2021. Scottish election 2021: Sturgeon rules out 'wildcat' indyref2 vote in final leaders debate. 4 May 2021. BBC News.
  3. Web site: Five party leaders go head-to-head in Channel 4's live election debate. Channel 4 News. 27 April 2021. 27 April 2021.
  4. Web site: Party leaders go head-to-head in STV's live election debate. STV News. 13 April 2021. 13 April 2021.
  5. Web site: Scotland election 2021: Leaders go head-to-head in first TV debate. BBC News. 30 March 2021. 6 April 2021.
  6. Web site: Former SNP leader Alex Salmond launches new political party. BBC News. 27 March 2021. 30 March 2021.
  7. Web site: Anas Sarwar wins Scottish Labour leadership race. BBC News. 27 February 2021. 30 March 2021.
  8. News: 2021-01-06. Party registration decisions. en-GB. Electoral Commission. 2021-01-06.
  9. Web site: Douglas Ross confirmed as Scottish Conservative leader. BBC News. 5 August 2020. 30 March 2021.
  10. Web site: Scottish Conservatives: Jackson Carlaw succeeds Ruth Davidson as leader. BBC News. 14 February 2020. 30 March 2021.
  11. Web site: General Election 2019: full results and analysis. UK Parliament. 28 January 2020. 30 March 2021. Baker. Carl. Uberoi. Elise. Cracknell. Richard.
  12. [Change UK]
  13. Web site: Lib Dems hold off SNP to win Shetland by-election. BBC News. 30 August 2019. 30 March 2021.
  14. Web site: Scottish Greens elect Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater as co-leaders. BBC News. 1 August 2019. 30 March 2021.
  15. [Change UK]
  16. [Change UK]
  17. [Change UK]
  18. News: Richard Leonard to lead Scottish Labour. BBC News. 18 November 2017. 23 May 2017.
  19. Web site: General Election 2017: full results and analysis. UK Parliament. 29 January 2019. 23 May 2019.
  20. Web site: Full Scottish council election results published. BBC News. 8 May 2017. 30 March 2021.
  21. [All for Unity]
  22. Web site: 4 May 2021. Scottish election 2021: Sturgeon rules out 'wildcat' indyref2 vote in final leaders debate. 4 May 2021. BBC News.
  23. [All for Unity]
  24. [All for Unity]
  25. [All for Unity]
  26. [All for Unity]
  27. [Independence for Scotland Party]
  28. Web site: EU Elections 2019: SNP to have three MEPs as Labour vote collapses. BBC News. 27 May 2019. 30 March 2021.