Opinion polling for the 2019 Tunisian presidential election explained

Polling for the 2019 Tunisian presidential election, which took place on 15 September 2019, with a runoff on 13 October 2019.

Second round

Polls

First round

Polls

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Chahed	Karoui	Saïed	Moussi	Marzouki	M. Abbou	Jomaa	Hammami	Saïd	Marzouk	Mraïhi	Aïdi	Hamdi	Makhlouf	Jalloul	Jebali	Riahi	Mourou	Zbidi
Emrhod Consulting	data-sort-value="2019-09-15"	15 September 2019		8.71%	15.26%	18.95%	4.59%	2.95%	3.38%	1.56%	1.27%	7.66%	–	5.15%	–	0.8%	3.79%	–	–	0.38%	12.59%	9.9%
Sigma Conseil	data-sort-value="2019-09-15"	15 September 2019	38 900	7.5%	15.5%	19.5%	5.1%	3.1%	4.3%	0.2%	1.7%	7.4%	0.3%	5.8%	0.3%	0.4%	4%		0.3%	0.2%	11%	9.4%

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Chahed	Karoui	Saïed	Moussi	Marzouki	M. Abbou	Jomaa	Hammami	Saïd	Marzouk	Morjane	Aïdi	Hamdi	Zenaidi	Jalloul	Jebali	Riahi	Chebbi	Zbidi
	data-sort-value="2019-07-25"	25 July 2019	The Independent High Authority for Elections moves up the election and runoff dates from 17 November 2019 and 24 November 2019 to 15 September 2019 and 22 September 2019 respectively in order to find a successor in accordance with the 90-day interim presidency period called for by the Constitution
	data-sort-value="2019-07-25"	25 July 2019	Beji Caid Essebsi passes away in office at the age of 92; Mohamed Ennaceur sworn in as Interim President of Tunisia on a 90-day interim basis
	data-sort-value="2019-07-23"	23 July 2019	Abdelkarim Zbidi announces that he will not run for the election^[1]
	data-sort-value="2019-07-16"	16 July 2019	Electoral period begins; no further polls are allowed
Emrhod Consulting	data-sort-value="2019-07-13"	10–13 July 2019	1200	7.8%	23%	14%	5.2%	3.1%	2.8%	2.6%	1.4%	2%	–	1.6%	–	1%	–	–	1%	–	–	–
Sigma Conseil^[2]	data-sort-value="2019-07-09"	3–9 July 2019	2056	7%	23%	20%	12%	7%	5%	3%	1%	–	–	3%	–	1%	–	–	1%	–	–	3%

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Chahed	Karoui	Saïed	Moussi	Marzouki	M. Abbou	Jomaa	Hammami	Saïd	Marzouk	Morjane	S. Abbou	Ghannouchi	Caid Essebsi	Aïdi	Hamdi	Brahim	Zenaidi	Jalloul	Jebali	Riahi	Chebbi
	data-sort-value="2019-06-23"	23 June 2019	Yassine Brahim announces that he will not run for the election^[3]
	data-sort-value="2019-06-18"	18 June 2019	Amendments to the electoral law approved by the ARP^[4]
Emrhod Consulting	data-sort-value="2019-06-17"	14–17 June 2019	1200	5.8%	26.5%	15.2%	5%	1.5%	2.3%	1.5%	1.2%	1.9%	–	1.2%	–	1.9%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Benchmark Consulting	data-sort-value="2019-06-14"	June 2019	1002	10.1%	7.9%	19.2%	11.6%	5.6%	6.8%	2.1%	1%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Sigma Conseil	data-sort-value="2019-06-8"	1–8 June 2019	2706	7.4%	23.8%	23.2%	10.8%	6.3%	6.6%	3.9%	1.8%	1%	0.9%	4%	–	1.6%	1.8%	–	1%	0.9%	–	–	1.4%	–	–
Benchmark Consulting^[5]	data-sort-value="2019-05-06"	2–6 May 2019		9.5%	–	17.5%	14.3%	4.4%	10.7%	5.9%	2.7%	–	–	–	–	2.7%	2.1%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Sigma Conseil^[6]	data-sort-value="2019-05-03"	2–3 May 2019	787	7.4%	21.8%	22.4%	12.4%	4.5%	4.5%	3.4%	0.8%	–	–	3.8%	4%	1.4%	1.8%	–	1.4%	–	–	–	1.8%	–	1.3%
Elka Consulting^[7]	data-sort-value="2019-05-03"	29 April - 3 May 2019	1216	4%	32%	17%	6%	7%	3%	3%	2%	5%	–	–	–	–	2%	–	1%	1%	–	1%	–	–	–
Emrhod Consulting	data-sort-value="2019-04-30"	27–30 April 2019	1000	9.8%	8.1%	7.5%	5.2%	3.2%	2.8%	2.4%	1.6%	1.2%	1%	1%	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%	–	–	–	–
	data-sort-value="2019-04-06"	6 April 2019	Beji Caid Essebsi announces that he will not seek re-election^[8]
Emrhod Consulting	data-sort-value="2019-03-29"	27–29 March 2019	1500	14.6%	0.2%	13.3%	5.7%	2.7%	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.8%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	–	0.2%	–	–	–	–
and ^[9]	data-sort-value="2019-03-27"	March 2019		20%	–	19.2%	7.4%	9.2%	–	5.2%	4%	–	–	–	12.5%	–	5.7%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Sigma Conseil^[10]	data-sort-value="2019-03-19"	March 2019		19.3%	1.3%	12.1%	7.1%	11.7%	4.7%	5.3%	6.7%	2.8%	–	2.3%	1.9%	3.1%	6.7%	–	3.3%	–	–	–	1.6%	–	–
Emrhod Consulting	data-sort-value="2019-02-24"	22–24 February 2019	1054	13.7%	–	4.4%	4.6%	5.2%	1.3%	0.2%	1.8%	2.3%	0.5%	0.7%	2.4%	1.1%	4.8%	–	0.5%	–	–	0.5%	0.3%	–	–
	data-sort-value="2019-01-16"	16 February 2019	Samia Abbou announces that she will not run for the election^[11]
Sigma Conseil	data-sort-value="2019-02-14"	11–14 February 2019	805	13.8%	–	5.6%	1.2%	4%	1.1%	1.3%	2%	1.9%	–	1.3%	1.3%	1.4%	4.9%	–	1.5%	0.3%	–	0.5%	0.7%	–	0.3%
	data-sort-value="2019-01-12"	12 January 2019	Rached Ghannouchi announces that he will not run for the election^[12]
Emrhod Consulting	data-sort-value="2018-12-26"	24–26 December 2018	1027	8%	–	4.8%	0.5%	3.8%	2.5%	0.9%	1.8%	3.2%	0.3%	1.2%	2.7%	0.8%	6.2%	–	0.2%	0.3%	–	0.3%	–	0.9%	0.5%
and ^[13]	data-sort-value="2018-12-25"	21–25 December 2018	1203	16.6%	–	14.4%	–	12%	–	–	–	–	–	–	14.2%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Emrhod Consulting	data-sort-value="2018-11-19"	16–19 November 2018	965	11.8%	–	0.4%	0.2%	6.2%	3.7%	1%	1.5%	1.8%	1%	2%	2.1%	0.5%	8.6%	–	–	0.2%	–	1%	–	1.2%	0.3%
Election results	23 November 2014						33.43%			7.82%	0.80%		1.27%			39.46%		5.75%		0.74%			5.55%	1.04%

See also

• 2019 Tunisian presidential election
• 2019 in Tunisia
• List of elections in 2019

Notes and References

1. Web site: Tunisie-Abdelkarim Zbidi nie sa candidature à la présidentielle. Laameri Dorsaf. 2019-07-23. Tunisie Numerique. fr-FR. 2019-07-24.
2. Web site: Sigma Conseil: Nabil karoui en tête des intentions de vote pour la présidentielle. 2019-07-10. nessma.tv. fr. 2019-07-11.
3. Web site: Tunisie – Yassine Brahim non concerné par les prochaines élections. LM. 2019-06-23. Tunisie Numerique. fr-FR. 2019-07-08.
4. Web site: En Tunisie, une nouvelle loi électorale enfièvre la scène politique. LeMonde.fr. fr. Frédéric Bobin. Mohamed Haddad. Lilia Blaise. 2019-06-19. 2019-06-20.
5. Web site: Selon un baromètre de Benchmark Consulting – Confirmation d'Abir Moussi à la hausse. Noureddine Hlaoui. 2019-05-14. Univers News. fr-FR. 2019-06-17.
6. Web site: خاص: نوايا التصويت في الانتخابات التشريعية والرئاسية ماي 2019: الزلزال. Zied Krichen. lemaghreb.tn. ar. 2019-05-06. 2019-06-15.
7. Web site: Selon Elka, Nabil Karoui en tête des intentions de votes. 2019-05-18. tuniscope.com. fr. 2019-06-15.
8. Web site: Tunisia's Essebsi announces decision not to seek presidential re-election. china.org.cn. en. 2019-04-07. 2019-06-15.
9. Web site: Tunisie : Le duo Youssef Chahed – Kais Saied, reste le favori des sondages. webdo.tn. Maher Chaabane. fr. 2019-03-27. 2019-06-15.
10. Web site: خاص: نوايا التصويت في الانتخابات التشريعية والرئاسية. Zied Krichen. lemaghreb.tn. ar. 2019-03-19. 2019-06-15.
11. Web site: Tunisie – AUDIO : Samia Abbou candidate aux présidentielles ?. LM. 2019-02-16. Tunisie Numerique. fr-FR. 2019-06-15.
12. Web site: Leader of majority party not to run for 2019 Tunisia presidential election. china.org.cn. en. 2019-01-13. 2019-06-15.
13. Web site: Tunisie: en cas de présidentielles, le chef du gouvernement Youssef Chahed le mieux placé (sondage). french.china.org.cn. fr. 2019-01-09. 2019-06-15.