Opinion polling for the 2019 Canadian federal election by constituency explained

Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2019 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in October 2015, and have increased in frequency leading up to the October 2019 general election.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

Constituency polls

Alberta

Edmonton Mill Woods

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
		HTML	32.6		40.6	13.5	9.0	3.8	0.7	±3.93 pp	623	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		41.2	41.0	12.7	2.2	0	1.1	±0.0 pp	49,744	Election

Edmonton Strathcona

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML	27.7		37.9	23.6	5.8	2.9	2.1	±4.00 pp	623	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	20.7	31.2		43.9	2.3	-	0.5	±0.0 pp	55,821	Election

British Columbia

Burnaby South

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
2019 By-election		HTML	26.02	22.63		38.90	0	10.65	1.80	±0.0 pp	22,746	Election
		HTML	26.3	22.0		38.8	0	8.7	4.2	±3.6 pp	740	IVR
		HTML		35.9	29.3	27.2	6.1	1.0	0.5	±5.12 pp	366	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	34	27		35	3	0	1	±0.0 pp	46,162	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		39.7	38.0	7.2	7.1	5.3	0	±3.83 pp	654	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		46	29	21	2	0	0	±0.0 pp	49,302	Election

Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML	24.4		38.5	10.1	14.6	4.5	0	±3.47 pp	796	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	30.4		35.2	30.7	3.5	-	0	±0.0 pp	69,939	Election

Vancouver East

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML	25.3	16.3	35.5	37.0	15.9	2.0	-	±3.02 pp	624	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	28	11		50	9	-	style="background:#D5D5D5"	-	±0.0 pp	59,113	Election

Vancouver Granville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Wilson-Raybould	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	28.3	22.3	-	-	-		32.8	-	±3.94 pp	620	IVR
		HTML		30.2	23.3	7.7	6.5	0.9	26.9	-	±4.03 pp	592	IVR
Justason Marketing		PDF	27	15	6	12	-		37	-	±5.1 pp	361	IVR
		Twitter		40.3	18.4	9.2	10.2	3.8	-	17.6	±4.4 pp	493	IVR
		Twitter		31.9	17.1	7.9	10.4	3.9	28.8	-	±4.4 pp	493	IVR
		PDF	29.2	19.9	8.4	10.2	0		32.3	0	±4.79 pp	418	IVR
Justason Marketing		PDF	24	14	23	0	0		33	7	±7 pp	195	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		44	26	27	3	0	0	0	±0.0 pp	54,010	Election

Victoria

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		Twitter	27.1	17.2	22.2		28.3	3.5	0	±4.1 pp	575	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	11.8	11.7		42.8	32.9	0	1	±0.0 pp	72,136	Election

Manitoba

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML	26.0		41.0	20.1	8.8	1.6	0	±3.94 pp	617	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	29.5	34.0		34.1	2.3	-	style="background:#D5D5D5"	-	±0.0 pp	43,268	Election

Nova Scotia

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML		41.0	38.3	8.7	11.1	0.7	-	±4.46 pp	598	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		58.5	25.8	10.2	4.1	0	1.2	±0.0 pp	44,496	Election

Cumberland—Colchester

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		39.0	35.8	4.5	15.1	1.8	-	±3.47 pp	616	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		63	26	5	3	0	0	±0.0 pp	46,510	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		38.9	26.7	14.3	17.1	2.4	0.6	±4.46pp	452	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		48	15	34	3	0	0	±0.0 pp	48,451	Election

Ontario

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML	31.6		39.7	8.0	15.3	3.7	-	±3.94 pp	620	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	41.5		41.7	10.2	5.2	0	0.7	±0.0 pp	50,716	Election

Chatham—Kent-Leamington

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML	34.8		49.4	9.8	2.2	1.7	-	±4.58 pp	458	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	37.2		41.7	18.3	2.6	0	0	±0.0 pp	52,234	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML	35.4		43.1	8.5	6.7	4.3	-	±3.94 pp	620	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	35.7		45.1	16.0	2.5	0	0.5	±0.0 pp	64,418	Election

Guelph

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		44.1	21.9	6.2	23.3	3.8	-	±3.99 pp	630	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		49	26	12	11	0	1	±0.0 pp	54,682	Election

Kitchener Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
Oraclepoll Research		PDF		43	23	6	26	2	-	±4.4 pp	500	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		48.8	30.4	16.6	3.1	0	1.2	±0.0 pp	52,572	Election

Markham—Stouffville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	Philpott	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		38.9	32.2	2.4	5.7	20.8	0	±3.99 pp	601	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		49	43	6	2	0	0	±0.0 pp	59,962	Election

Milton

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		39.8	38.8	4.3	10.3	3.6	0	±4.08 pp	588	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	40		45	10	2	-	1	±0.0 pp	49,518	Election

Niagara Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		43.7	31.3	17.1	5.6	1.2	1.2	±4.46 pp	482	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		36	30	32	2	0	1	±0.0 pp	54,682	Election

Oakville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		48.3	35.4	3.0	8.3	3.5	0	±3.99 pp	602	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		49	42	6	2	0	0.4	±0.0 pp	64,704	Election

Ottawa Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		45.6	22.7	15.7	11.3	2.7	-	±3.71 pp	699	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		42.6	14.4	38.5	2.9	0	1.0	±0.0 pp	75,886	Election

Scarborough Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		53.2	22.2	4.7	12.7	3.5	3.7	N/A	627	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		50.5	32.7	11.6	2.1	0	3.1	±0.0 pp	45,436	Election

Simcoe North

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML	36.1		39.6	5.5	15.3	2.1	1.5	±3.77 pp	674	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	39.8		43.5	10.5	4.6	0	1.5	±0.0 pp	57,260	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML		49.5	23.7	8.8	13.5	2.7	-	±4.00 pp	606	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		49.7	32.3	14.9	2.9	0	0.2	±0.0 pp	59,849	Election

Whitby

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		39.7	39.1	6.2	8.7	3.9	0	±3.96 pp	611	IVR
		HTML	39.7		41	5	10	4	0.4	±4.00 pp	600	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		45.0	42.1	10.3	2.2	0	0.4	±0.0 pp	64,516	Election

Windsor West

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		37.6	21.3	36.3	2.9	1.9	-	±4.53 pp	468	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	25.2	20.8		51.3	2.3	0	0.3	±0.0 pp	86,166	Election

Prince Edward Island

Charlottetown

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML		41.3	28.7	7.4	17.0	1.2	4.3	±3.91 pp	628	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		56.2	14.8	23.1	5.7	0	0	±0.0 pp	21,264	Election

Quebec

Beauce

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	15		31	2	13	4	29	-	±3.9 pp	625	IVR
		HTML	19.3		33.5	1.9	5.8	3.7	33	1.8	±3.87 pp	640	IVR
		HTML	13.8		37.9	5.5	4.4	2.0	34.7	1.8	±3.95 pp	616	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	22		59	10	7	2	N/A	0	±0.0 pp	56,594	Election

Beauport-Limoilou

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	30		32	6	20	7	3	-	±3.9 pp	623	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	25.4		30.6	25.5	14.8	2.4	N/A	1.3	±0.0 pp	51,449	Election

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	31.1	20.4	4	37.6	3.1	0.9	-	±3.66 pp	716	IVR
2015 Election		https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/PastResults?L=e&ED=24009&EV=51&EV_TYPE=1&PROV=QC&PROVID=24&QID=-1&PAGEID=28'''HTML'''	24.3	11.4	22.1	40.0	2.3	N/A	-	±0.0 pp	53,163	Election

Beloeil-Chambly

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	25	9	18	39	6	2	2	±3.97	609	IVR
		HTML		35	15	8	26	9	-	-	- pp	825	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	29.3	9.3		31.1	27.7	2.3	N/A	0.4	±0.0 pp	66,438	Election

Berthier—Maskinongé

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Mainstreet Research		HTML	16.1	14.6	35.5	35.5	27.8	2.3	1.8	-	±4.00 pp	600	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	20.2	10.2		42.1	25.8	1.5	-	style="background:#D5D5D5"	-	±0.0 pp	55,250	Election

Jonquière

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	14.9	20.3	24.7	34.2	2.5	2.0	-	±3.89 pp	634	IVR
		HTML	27		29	13	19	6	3	-	±3.55 pp	674	IVR
2015 Election		https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/PastResults?L=e&ED=24032&EV=41&EV_TYPE=1&PROV=QC&PROVID=24&QID=-1&PAGEID=28'''HTML'''	28.5	16.9		29.2	23.3	1.4	-	0.8	±0.0 pp	49,002	Election

Laurier—Sainte-Marie

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		35	2	16	40	3	2	-	±3.9 pp	628	IVR
		HTML		41.0	3.7	12.8	26.8	8.4	4.0	-	±3.95 pp	615	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	23	4		38	28	3	-	1	±0.0 pp	66,438	Election

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		35.0	9.0	5.0	28.0	17.0	3.0	-	±4 pp	556	IVR
2015 Election		https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr2015app/41/9946f.html'''HTML'''	30.0	8.7		31.2	27.3	2.5	-	0.3	±0.0 pp	59,138	Election

Louis-Hébert

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		40	19	5	19	8	4	-	3.3 pp	864	IVR
2015 Election		https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/PastResults?L=e&ED=24043&EV=51&EV_TYPE=1&PROV=QC&PROVID=24&QID=-1&PAGEID=28'''HTML'''		34.9	27.2	20.8	14.4	2.5	-	0.2	±0.0 pp	61,744	Election

Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	23.6		29.3	8	28.9	6	4	-	±4 pp	586	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	28.4		29.0	24.2	16.1	1.7	-	0.6	±0.0 pp	50,020	Election

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	22		48	4	12	7	4	2	±3.5 pp	625	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	21.5		44.0	22.1	10.7	1.8	-	0	±0.0 pp	62,059	Election

Québec

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		39	17	8	27	6
		HTML		33.1	25.2	8.1	21.4	7.7	3	1.6	±3.7 pp	684	IVR
2015 Election		HTML		29	22	27	19	3	0	1	±0.0 pp	54,687	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Bloc	Green	PPC	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
	October 1, 2019	HTML	22	6.1		35.4	26	6.2	2.6	1.6	±3.96 pp	613	IVR
2015 Election		HTML	20.7	4.3		49.2	21.1	3.1	0	1.7	±0.0 pp	54,349	Election

Notes

Notes

In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.^[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.^[2]

Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.

"Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.

Election Results shown for 2011 are the redistributed results for the 2015 districts. These are fixed until 2023 under the present federal electoral system. About 80% of the 308 districts defined in 2003 changed their borders or are entirely new: 338 districts were defined in 2015.

Naming party only.

Naming candidates.

Notes and References

1. News: MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario’s Journalists" . Marketing Research and Intelligence Association . September 16, 2011 . October 6, 2012.
2. American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research, retrieved October 17, 2012