Opinion polling for the 2018 Italian general election explained

In the years running up to the 2018 Italian general election, held on 4 March, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in Italy. Results of such polls are given in this article. The date range is from the 2013 Italian general election, held on 24–25 February, to two weeks before the new election, 16 February 2018. Poll results are reported at the dates when the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication; if such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. Under the Italian par condicio (equal conditions) law, publication of opinion polls is forbidden in the last two weeks of an electoral campaign.[1] [2]

Party vote

The data on Forza Italia (FI) prior to 16 November 2013 refer to its predecessor, The People of Freedom (PdL), which at its dissolution suffered the split of the New Centre-Right (NCD). Since the 2014 European Parliament election most opinion polls have calculated the Union of the Centre (UdC) together with the NCD, even after December 2016, when the two parties parted ways. Since December 2014 results for Lega Nord (LN) have included its sister party Us with Salvini (NcS). Since November 2015 Left Ecology Freedom (SEL) started to be polled as Italian Left (SI), before finally be merged into it in February 2017. In the same month splinters from the Democratic Party (PD) and the Italian Left formed Article One (MDP), while other leftists launched the short-lived Progressive Camp (CP). In March 2017 the NCD was transformed into Popular Alternative (AP). In December 2017 the MDP, SI and minor groups launched a joint list named Free and Equal (LeU).

In the run-up of the election several other electoral lists were formed, notably including More Europe (+Eu), Together, Power to the People (PaP), Us with Italy (NcI) and the Popular Civic List (CP). Moreover, two broader alliances were formed: the centre-left coalition and the centre-right coalition.

Some polls may include the Communist Refoundation Party (PRC) instead of PaP.

2018

DatePolling firmSample
size
CSXCDXM5SLeUPaPCPIOthersLead
PD+EuICPFILNFdINcI
4 Mar 2018General election 18.82.60.60.514.017.44.31.332.73.41.10.92.413.9
12–16 FebTermometro Politico4,50021.32.80.90.915.914.85.01.826.35.31.71.81.55.0
14–15 FebDemopolis2,00022.52.52.016.514.25.02.328.06.01.05.5
14 FebEuromedia80022.12.30.80.517.314.24.82.326.85.80.62.14.7
13–14 FebPiepoli50524.53.01.00.516.013.05.03.027.06.00.50.52.5
12–14 FebDemos1,01421.93.516.313.24.827.86.16.45.9
12–14 FebIxè1,00021.53.50.60.718.010.84.71.828.16.02.02.36.6
12–14 FebIndex80022.82.21.01.216.413.84.92.427.65.91.84.8
12–14 FebSWG2,00023.52.90.81.015.213.44.42.228.35.90.91.54.8
5–14 FebDemetra6,00623.72.60.50.615.014.74.40.629.45.31.30.61.35.7
13 FebIPR22.02.81.02.016.514.54.53.028.54.51.00.56.5
13 FebPiepoli25.02.51.00.516.013.05.02.527.06.00.51.02.0
12–13 FebTecnè1,00121.82.618.312.85.02.928.35.33.06.5
12 FebEuromedia80022.42.00.70.517.514.14.82.227.06.10.81.94.6
8–12 FebBidimedia1,30024.41.91.01.416.314.53.92.525.34.61.21.11.90.9
9–11 FebEMG1,61422.82.11.61.016.113.94.62.827.35.20.80.61.24.5
8–11 FebLorien1,00023.61.20.81.517.912.34.61.227.65.02.71.50.24.0
8 FebSWG1,00023.32.80.81.315.713.14.82.028.06.50.71.04.7
8 FebIndex80023.51.91.51.115.714.15.02.627.36.01.33.8
7–8 FebDemopolis1,00022.816.314.04.728.35.88.15.5
6–8 FebEMG1,68322.42.01.61.015.014.64.62.828.15.72.25.7
3–8 FebTermometro Politico3,50021.92.10.70.515.314.85.52.026.85.31.51.91.74.9
6–7 FebTecnè1,00322.11.618.313.24.92.928.05.73.35.9
5–7 FebIxè1,00022.13.00.80.717.311.14.82.028.36.51.32.16.2
5 FebPiepoli50025.03.01.00.516.014.05.02.527.06.50.20.32.0
2–4 FebEMG1,74223.01.91.61.015.814.34.62.827.25.42.04.2
1–4 FebLorien1,00024.01.20.21.617.112.34.41.628.15.72.41.10.34.1
30 Jan–2 FebBidimedia1,23524.21.61.21.616.213.34.22.226.25.01.10.92.32.0
22 Jan–2 FebTermometro Politico4,00022.01.91.20.615.514.05.31.526.85.61.61.82.34.8
1 FebEuromedia80023.81.61.10.817.813.84.52.327.25.70.70.33.4
1 FebIndex80023.81.61.81.115.813.75.02.526.96.31.73.1
1 FebPiepoli80025.52.50.50.515.013.04.52.527.56.50.52.0
30 Jan–1 FebEMG1,70223.81.61.81.016.013.64.82.826.95.32.03.1
29 Jan–1 FebIxè 1,00022.02.60.40.817.011.54.32.028.77.31.22.26.7
29–31 JanSWG1,50023.72.01.01.115.912.95.12.328.46.00.51.14.7
29 JanTecnè89822.21.618.312.85.12.827.86.23.25.6
28–29 JanDemopolis1,50023.016.014.04.529.56.06.5
26–28 JanEMG1,77824.01.61.71.015.913.85.02.826.55.72.02.5
25 JanEuromedia80024.31.50.61.118.413.64.52.126.46.00.51.02.1
25 JanIndex80024.01.31.61.015.813.75.22.127.06.51.83.0
25 JanPiepoli50625.52.50.50.515.013.54.52.527.57.01.02.0
22–25 JanIxè 1,00021.82.00.70.916.711.94.42.229.27.03.27.4
23–24 JanIpsos1,00022.74.016.913.74.61.129.36.11.66.6
22–24 JanSWG 1,50024.01.50.91.316.013.05.52.227.86.40.40.63.8
22–23 JanTecnè1,50122.31.718.312.55.32.827.46.33.45.1
22 JanLorien1,00025.31.10.21.415.912.24.01.429.25.91.53.9
22 JanIPR22.02.01.02.016.012.06.03.028.06.02.06.0
19–22 JanTecnè80122.31.818.212.65.42.827.06.23.74.7
19–21 JanEMG1,80323.71.41.61.016.013.95.12.727.06.11.13.3
17–19 JanIxè1,00022.31.90.61.217.411.34.52.527.87.43.15.5
16–17 JanIndex80024.01.41.51.015.613.65.31.527.56.51.13.5
15–17 JanSWG1,50023.61.20.81.316.013.25.72.027.36.80.71.43.7
15 JanPiepoli81025.01.51.01.015.014.05.02.527.07.01.02.0
15 JanEuromedia80024.21.80.41.218.013.54.42.426.36.00.61.22.1
12–14 JanEMG1,88923.81.41.51.115.713.85.52.626.86.01.43.0
10–11 JanDemopolis1,50023.53.515.613.85.01.929.26.51.05.7
10–11 JanIpsos99823.11.21.41.816.513.84.70.928.76.40.70.85.6
9–11 JanEMG1,61123.51.31.51.115.313.55.52.427.95.82.24.4
8–10 JanIxè2,00023.11.71.717.211.84.92.427.87.02.44.7
8–10 JanIndex80024.01.51.70.815.013.75.41.628.06.22.14.0
8–10 JanSWG1,50023.11.30.91.416.713.15.71.626.76.80.72.03.6
9 JanIPR22.02.50.52.516.013.06.32.728.05.01.56.0
6–9 JanBidimedia1,14324.11.31.01.416.112.94.52.527.05.90.90.61.82.9
8 JanTecnè1,00020.74.318.012.65.32.628.16.71.77.4
6–8 JanDemopolis1,00024.02.515.314.05.01.929.07.01.35.0
5–7 JanEMG1,60324.11.41.51.014.813.65.52.228.25.62.14.1

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Coalition vote

2018

DatePolling firmCSXCDXM5SLeUOthersLead
4 Mar 2018General election 22.837.032.73.43.14.3
12–16 FebTermometro Politico26.337.526.35.34.611.2
14–15 FebDemopolis27.038.028.06.01.010.0
14 FebEuromedia26.138.626.85.82.711.8
13–14 FebPiepoli29.337.027.06.00.27.7
12–14 FebIndex27.237.527.65.91.89.9
12–14 FebSWG28.635.228.35.92.06.6
5–14 FebDemetra27.434.729.45.33.25.3
13 FebIPR28.238.528.54.50.310.0
13 FebPiepoli29.337.027.06.00.77.7
12 FebEuromedia26.038.627.06.12.311.6
8–12 FebBidimedia29.237.225.34.63.78.0
9–11 FebEMG27.937.427.35.22.29.5
8–11 FebLorien27.136.027.65.04.38.4
8 FebSWG28.535.628.06.51.47.1
8 FebIndex28.037.427.36.01.39.4
7–8 FebDemopolis27.537.228.35.81.28.9
6–8 FebEMG27.437.028.15.71.88.9
3–8 FebTermometro Politico25.637.626.85.34.710.8
6–7 FebTecnè25.739.328.05.71.311.9
5–7 FebIxè26.635.928.36.52.77.6
5 FebPiepoli29.836.527.06.50.26.7
2–4 FebEMG27.937.527.25.42.09.6
1–4 FebLorien27.035.628.15.73.67.5
30 Jan–2 FebBidimedia29.135.926.25.03.86.8
22 Jan–2 FebTermometro Politico26.136.326.85.65.29.5
30 Jan–1 FebEMG28.637.226.95.32.08.6
29 Jan–1 FebIxè25.835.328.77.32.96.6
1 FebEuromedia27.738.427.25.71.010.7
1 FebPiepoli29.535.527.56.50.56.0
1 FebIndex28.337.326.96.31.29.0
29–31 JanSWG28.136.228.46.01.57.8
29 JanTecnè25.939.027.86.21.111.2
26-28 JanEMG28.737.526.55.71.68.8
25 JanEuromedia27.839.126.46.01.011.3
25 JanIndex27.937.327.06.51.89.4
25 JanPiepoli29.035.527.57.01.06.5
23-24 JanIpsos26.736.329.36.11.67.0
22-25 JanIxè 25.435.429.27.03.06.2
22-24 JanSWG 28.136.727.86.41.08.6
22–23 JanTecnè26.139.027.46.31.211.6
22 JanLorien28.034.029.25.91.04.8
22 JanPiepoli29.035.527.57.01.06.5
22 JanIPR27.037.028.06.02.09.0
19–22 JanTecnè26.339.227.06.21.312.3
19–21 JanEMG28.137.727.06.11.19.6
17–19 JanIxè26.035.727.87.43.17.9
16–17 JanIndex27.937.027.56.51.19.1
15–17 JanSWG27.337.227.36.81.49.9
15 JanPiepoli28.536.527.07.01.08.0
15 JanEuromedia27.939.026.36.00.811.1
12–14 JanEMG28.237.626.86.01.49.4
10–11 JanDemopolis27.036.329.26.57.1
10–11 JanIpsos27.535.928.76.41.57.2
9–11 JanEMG27.837.627.95.81.89.7
8–10 JanIxè26.536.327.87.02.48.5
9 JanIPR27.538.028.05.01.510.0
8–10 JanIndex28.036.727.96.51.18.7
8–10 JanSWG27.137.626.76.81.810.5
8 JanTecnè25.039.228.16.71.011.1
6–9 JanBidimedia28.436.027.05.92.77.6
6–8 JanDemopolis26.536.229.07.01.37.2
5–7 JanEMG28.436.128.25.61.77.7
6 JanYouTrend 27.934.627.36.83.46.7

2017

Seat projections

Chamber of Deputies

DatePolling firmCSXCDXM5SLeUOthersLeadMajority
4 Mar 2018General election 12226522714238–51
15 Feb 2018Index15129514725144–21
14 Feb 2018Euromedia1562731342628117–43
13–14 Feb 2018Piepoli16628114526115–35
12–14 FebIxè123–141264–297132–182244–6982–165–52 to –19
8 Feb 2018Index15629414325138–22
7 Feb 2018Ixè143296161264135–20
2 Feb 2018YouTrend15328415625128–32
29 Jan–1 Feb 2018Ixè 134290172304118–26
25 Jan 2018Piepoli16226815929106–48
25 Jan 2018YouTrend14728815528133–28
22-25 Jan 2018Ixè130290177294113–26
19-21 Jan 2018EMG136–176259–299139–17922–26120–17
17-19 Jan 2018Ixè 137299161294138–17
18 Jan 2018Ipsos1542661702796–50
10–11 Jan 2018Ipsos15226916927100–47
6 Jan 2018YouTrend 1872651402678–51
1 Jan 2018YouTrend158280157287122–36
29–31 Dec 2017Winpoll1342761793097–40
22 Dec 2017Ixè138292167294125–24
21 Dec 2017YouTrend1872651402678–51
19 Dec 2017Ipos15128115827123–35
30 Nov 2017YouTrend16926715324498–49
23 Nov 2017Ixè162270165258105–46
8 Nov 2017Ipos16425217323479–64
27 Oct 2017Ipos16224817825470–68
25 Oct 2017YouTrend18222118922432–95
24–25 Oct 2017Demopolis1802461682466–70
20 Oct 2017Index1812611721680–55
18 Oct 2017Cattaneo213209170264–103
12 Oct 2017Ipos17423817823460–78
12 Oct 2017YouTrend18222118922432–95

Senate of the Republic

DatePolling firmCSXCDXM5SLeUOthersLeadMajority
4 Mar 2018General election 601371124225–24
13–14 Feb 2018Piepoli92134721142–27
7 Feb 2018Ixè681538012273–8
1 Feb 2018YouTrend77140801260–21
29 Jan–1 Feb 2018Ixè 651508414266–11
25 Jan 2018YouTrend79140771361–21
22-25 Jan 2018Ixè611528713265–9
17-19 Jan 2018Ixè 651538213271–8
6 Jan 2018YouTrend801377814657–24
1 Jan 2018YouTrend821337915651–28
29–31 Dec 2017Winpoll71138871351–23
22 Dec 2017Ixè681518311258–10
23 Nov 2017Ixè81135858640–26

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Diffusione dei sondaggi. live. AGCOM. it. https://web.archive.org/web/20180220152753/https://www.agcom.it/diffusione-dei-sondaggi. 20 February 2018. 3 November 2022.
  2. Web site: Crespi. Luigi. 20 February 2018. Il blocco dei sondaggi è il trionfo dell'ipocrisia. live. HuffPost. it. https://web.archive.org/web/20180220110014/http://www.huffingtonpost.it/luigi-crespi/il-blocco-dei-sondaggi-e-il-trionfo-dellipocrisia_a_23365999/. 20 February 2018. 3 November 2022.