Opinion polling for the 2017 Iranian presidential election explained

This page lists public opinion polls in connection with the 2017 Iranian presidential election, which were held on 19 May 2017, with a run-off the week after if no candidate secures an absolute majority of the vote in the first round.

Polls

2017

Fieldwork date	Poll source	Sample size	Margin of error							Undecided	Won't say	Others
				Rouhani	Raisi	Ghalibaf	Mir-Salim	Jahangiri	Hashemitaba
17 May 2017	iPPO	1,203	[±2.83,±4.06]	35.9%	18%	2.3%	0.5%	0.2%	0%	16.4%	20%	7%
16 May: Jahangiri drops out in favor of Rouhani
16 May 2017	IranPoll	1,007	±3.09%	60.4%	39.6%
				58%	36.4%		<2%	<2%	<2%
15–16 May 2017	iPPO	1,194	[±2.83,±3.89]	30%	13%	5%	1%	<1%	1%	24%	22%	10%
15 May: Ghalibaf drops out in favor of Raisi
13–15 May 2017	iPPO	1,376	[±2.64,±3.92]	27%	10%	8%	1%	1%	<1%	24%	22%	4%
11–14 May 2017	iPPO	1,122	[±2.93,±4.30]	28%	12%	9%	1%	1%	<1%	24%	22%	4%
10–13 May 2017	iPPO	1,012	[±3.08,±4.73]	29.1%	10.7%	12%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	25.5%	13.1%	8.7%
9–12 May 2017	iPPO	1,199	[±2.83,±3.75]	30%	11%	12%	1%	<1%	<1%	25%	11%	9%
8–11 May 2017	iPPO	1,212	[±2.81,±3.74]	29%	11%	12%	<1%	1%	<1%	28%	10%	10%
7–10 May 2017	iPPO	1,189	[±2.82,±3.75]	28%	10%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%	30%	8%	14%
6–9 May 2017	iPPO	1,189	[±2.84,±3.82]	23%	9%	11%	1%	<1%	<1%	33%	10%	14%
5–8 May 2017	iPPO	1,076	[±2.99,±3.91]	24.4%	6.9%	10.3%	0.7%	0.7%	0.1%	35.6%	9.7%	11.6%
4–7 May 2017	iPPO	1,000	[±3.10,±3.90]	24.5%	4.6%	10.5%	0.8%	1.3%	0.4%	36.3%	9.3%	12.3%
4–7 May 2017	iPPO	947	[±3.18,±3.90]	26%	5.5%	11.8%	0.8%	1.4%	0.2%	38.9%	10.3%	5.1%

Iran-based pollsters

According to the Al-Monitor, "it’s not unusual in Iran for news outlets to publish reports of nonscientific surveys. Without further details, such polls shouldn’t be considered reliable if they lack the disclosure of basic methodological information".^[1] A persistent problem in Iranian pollsters, they also do not report the standard disclosure items for legitimate surveys including sample size or margin of error.^[2]

Fieldwork date	Poll source							No answer	None of them
		Rouhani	Ghalibaf	Raisi	Jahangiri	Mir-Salim	Hashemitaba
15 May 2017	APCAF Porsesh^[3]	55.47%		28.46%	3.66%	2.18%	1.41%	6.26%
13 May 2017	ISPA^[4]	47.2%	19.5%	25.2%	3.1%	2.1%	1.4%
		43.2%	21.7%	24.7%	3.6%	2.8%	1.7%
		49.9%		41.3%				2.3%	4.8%
7–8 May 2017	ISPA	41.6%	24.6%	26.7%	3.2%	2.8%	1.2%
		47.7%		38.7%
		44.8%	44.1%
23–24 April 2017	ISPA	43.5%	22.6%	17.4%	3.6%	2.1%	2.8%	8.1%
		52.9%		32.4%				3.5%	11.2%
		49%	37.7%					3.7%	9.6%
Before 24 April 2017	IRIB^[5]	1st	2nd	3rd
		43.3%		27%
		40.9%	34.6%
			36.5%	27%

Pre-2017 polls

Fieldwork date	Poll source	Sample size	Margin of error					Other
				Rouhani	Ahmadinejad	Ghalibaf	Jalili
10–24 December 2016	CISSM, IranPoll^[6]	1,000	±3.2	48.5%		31.8%		10.7%, 9%
				47.2%		25.1%	11.3%	6.7%, 9.7%
				57.3%			21.8%	8.6%, 12.3%
Late October 2016	"An academic institute in Iran"^[7]	Undisclosed	±3.2	64%			19%
				53%		32%
17–27 June 2016	CISSM, IranPoll^[8]	1,007	±3.2	53.6%		30.1%		6.6%, 9.7%
				40.6%	31%	15.3%		6%, 7.1%
				45%	36.7%			9.5%, 8.7%
11–24 March 2016	iPOS^[9]	1,077	±3	41%	29%			15%, 15%
12–28 May 2015	UTCPOR, CISSM, IranPoll^[10]	1,009	±3.2	24.6%	8.8%	6.2%	0.4%	15.5%, 46%
				53.4%	26.6%			11.3%, 8.7%
14–15 February 2015	iPOS^[11] ^[12]	735	±3.6	28%	24%			23%, 25%
				27%	21%	9%	4%	37%

Approval ratings

2017

Turnout

Poll source	Sample size	Fieldwork date	Margin of error	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not very likely	Not likely at all	Don't know
iPPO	947	4–7 May 2017	[±3.18,±3.90]	71.6%		16.1%		4.9%
IRIB	38,000	30 April–2 May 2017		63.5%	7.1%	1.2%	23.6%	4.6%
ISPA^[14]	4,500	23–24 April 2017		48%	22%	7%	10%	12%
ISPA^[15]	900	5–6 March 2017		41.9%	18.8%	11%	16%	12%
CISSM, IranPoll	1,000	10–24 December 2016	±3.2	66.6%	15.8%	8.9%	7.4%	1.3%
CISSM, IranPoll	1,007	17–27 June 2016	±3.2	65.8%	15.3%	10.6%	7.1%	1.1%

Notes and References

1. Web site: Iran polling: Will vote see Rouhani-Ghalibaf rematch?. Al-Monitor. 25 April 2017. 25 April 2017. Matt Dabrowski.
2. Web site: Polls put Rouhani in lead with one week to go. Al-Monitor. 12 May 2017. 12 May 2017. Matt Dabrowski.
3. News: Rouhani is still leading with wide margin. 17 May 2017. Shargh. Persian. 2866. https://web.archive.org/web/20170525165625/http://www.sharghdaily.ir/News/131529/%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA. 25 May 2017.
4. News: Latest ISPA Poll: Rouhani Still Leading. 16 May 2017. 17 May 2017. The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA). Shafaqna. Persian.
5. Web site: Opinion Poll Results: Rouhani 1st, Raisi 3rd. Deutsche Welle. Persian. 24 April 2017. 24 April 2017. (Alef report in Persian)
6. Web site: Iranian Public Opinion on Key National and International Issues. Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) & IranPoll.com. January 2017. 4 April 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170409125601/http://www.cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/files/Iranian%20Attitudes%20in%20the%20Trump%20Era%20-%20Questionnaire%20-%20FINAL.pdf. 9 April 2017. dead.
7. Web site: Recent Poll: Decrease in Rouhani's Popularity, Zarif Ahead. Alef. Arabian Gulf Center for Iranian studies. 29 November 2016. 4 April 2017. (Original Source in Persian)
8. Web site: Iranian Public Opinion, One Year After the Nuclear Deal. Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) & IranPoll.com. July 2016. 4 April 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170409201116/http://www.cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/files/Trend%20Tables%20-%20June%202016-UMD-IranPoll%20-%20Iranian%20Public%20Opinion%20One%20Year%20After%20the%20Nuclear%20Deal-FINAL.pdf. 9 April 2017. dead.
9. Web site: 2017 Presidential Elections: Rouhani 41%, Ahmadinejad 29% . Information and Public Opinion Solutions LLC (iPOS) . 25 May 2016. 25 May 2016.
10. Web site: Iranian Public Opinion on the Nuclear Negotiations. University of Tehran Center for Public Opinion Research (UTCPOR), the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), and IranPoll.com. 24 March 2017. June 2015.
11. Web site: Ahmadinejad Upsets Rohani's Path to Re-election in 2017. Information and Public Opinion Solutions LLC (iPOS) . 26 December 2015. 4 March 2015.
12. Web site: 2017: Ahmadinejad or Rohani. Information and Public Opinion Solutions LLC (iPOS) . 26 December 2015. 4 March 2015.
13. Web site: Iranian Presidential Election 2017 Pre-election National Opinion Polls (April 2017). IranPoll.com. April 2017. 18 April 2017.
14. Web site: 58% of Iranian People Willing to Vote in the Twelfth Presidential Election. Iranian Students' Polling Agency (ISPA). 27 April 2017. 1 May 2017. Persian.
15. Web site: Mistrust to Electronic Voting: ISPA Survey Results Shows. Iranian Students' Polling Agency (ISPA). 13 March 2017. 25 March 2017. Persian.