Opinion polling for the 2017 French legislative election explained

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2017 French legislative elections, which were held in two rounds on 11 and 18 June 2017.

Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.

Graphical summary

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the nine major French pollsters. The graphs are smoothed 14-day weighted moving averages, using only the most recent poll conducted by any given pollster within that range (each poll weighted based on recency).

No total for Europe Ecology – The Greens (EELV) was provided by the Ministry of the Interior in the 2017 legislative elections. According to statistics compiled by Laurent de Boissieu, 454 EELV candidates collected 3.41% of the vote in the first round.[1]

First round

The comparison for the French Communist Party and La France Insoumise with 2012 is made against the Left Front. Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 3.51%.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
EXGPCFFIECOEELVPSPRGDVGLREMMoDemUDILRDVDUPRDLFFNEXDREGDIV
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201751.30%0.77%2.72%11.03%4.30%7.44%0.47%1.60%28.21%4.12%3.03%15.77%2.76%(DIV)1.17%13.20%0.30%0.90%2.21%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2017-06-08"7–8 Jun 20171,11240%1%2%11.5%3%8%31.5%22%1.5%17%2.5%
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-06-08"6–8 Jun 20179311%3%12%3%7%1%30%19%2%1%17%1%3%
OpinionWaydata-sort-value="2017-06-08"6–8 Jun 20173,08046%1%3%12%3%7%1%30%21%2%18%2%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-06-08"6–8 Jun 20171,00339%0.5%3%11%3.5%8%1%30%20%2%1.5%18%1.5%
Elabedata-sort-value="2017-06-08"5–8 Jun 20171,91851%0.5%2%11%3%9%29%23%2%17%3.5%
BVAdata-sort-value="2017-06-05"2–5 Jun 20174,77241%1%2%12.5%3%8%1%30%20%1.5%2%18%1%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2017-06-04"2–4 Jun 20171,12640%1%2%12.5%2.5%8.5%29.5%23%1.5%17%2.5%
Odoxadata-sort-value="2017-06-01"31 May–1 Jun 201769748%1%3%11%3%8%33%19%2.5%18%1.5%
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-06-01"30 May–1 Jun 20178852%2%11%3%8%1%31%18%2%2%18%<0.5%2%
OpinionWaydata-sort-value="2017-06-01"30 May–1 Jun 20171,94045%1%3%13%2%9%1%29%20%2%18%2%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2017-05-31"29–31 May 20172,80238%0.5%2.5%12%3%7.5%1%31%19%1.5%2%18%2%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2017-05-30"27–30 May 20178,77839%0.5%2%11.5%3%8.5%31%22%2%18%1.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2017-05-28"26–28 May 20171,1270.5%2%11.5%3%9%29.5%22%2.5%18%2%
Kantar Sofresdata-sort-value="2017-05-28"24–28 May 20172,02237%1%2%12%3.5%8%1%31%18%1.5%0.5%2.5%17%2%
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-05-26"23–26 May 20179052%2%14%3%7%31%18%3%19%1%
OpinionWaydata-sort-value="2017-05-24"23–24 May 20172,1031%2%15%10%28%20%2%19%3%
Elabedata-sort-value="2017-05-24"23–24 May 20171,01149%0.5%2%12%2.5%6.5%33%20%1.5%19%3%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-19"18–19 May 20179500.5%1.5%15%2.5%7%31%19%2.5%18%3%
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-05-18"16–18 May 20179401%2%16%3%6%32%18%3%19%
OpinionWaydata-sort-value="2017-05-18"16–18 May 20171,9971%2%14%11%27%20%2%20%3%
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-05-17"15–17 May 20174,5981%2%15%3%6%32%19%3%19%
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-05-11"9–11 May 20179412%2%14%3%7%29%20%3%20%
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-05-07"7 May 20172,3761%2%13%3%8%26%22%3%22%
Kantar Sofresdata-sort-value="2017-05-05"4–5 May 20171,5072%1%15%3.5%9%24%22%2.5%21%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-05"4–5 May 20171,4051%2%16%3%9%22%2.5%20%1.5%20%3%
OpinionWaydata-sort-value="2017-05-01"24 Apr–1 May 20175,0321%10%13%26%24%3%19%4%
2012 electiondata-sort-value="2012-06-10"10 Jun 201242.78%0.98%6.91% (FG)0.96%5.46%29.35%1.65%3.40%1.77%27.12%7.54%(DVD)13.60%0.19%0.56%0.52%

Second round seat projections

Projections marked with an asterisk (*) were constructed for 535 out of 577 constituencies, including only metropolitan France only and excluding Corsica as well as overseas territories and residents.[2]

The comparison for the French Communist Party and La France Insoumise with 2012 is made against the Left Front. Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 15.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
PCFFIPSPRGDVGEELVLREMMoDemUDILRDVDDLFFNEXDREGDIV
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-18"18 Jun 201757.36%10173031213084218112618153
Odoxadata-sort-value="2017-06-15"14–15 Jun 201794853%8–1725–3570–951–63–7
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-06-15"13–15 Jun 201791414–2522–3560–801–63–7
OpinionWaydata-sort-value="2017-06-15"13–15 Jun 20172,90154%5–1520–3070–901–53–10
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2017-06-08"7–8 Jun 20171,11211–2122–3295–1155–155–10
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-06-08"6–8 Jun 201793115–2520–30125–1408–187–9
OpinionWaydata-sort-value="2017-06-08"6–8 Jun 20173,08012–2215–25120–1508–185–10
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2017-06-04"2–4 Jun 20171,12612–2225–35105–1255–153–7
Odoxadata-sort-value="2017-06-01"31 May–1 Jun 201769715–2525–35120–1605–155–10
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-06-01"30 May–1 Jun 201788515–2530–44135–1508–227–9
OpinionWaydata-sort-value="2017-06-01"30 May–1 Jun 20171,94024–3120–35145–1657–175–10
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-31"29–31 May 20172,80215–2520–35133–1539–168–12
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2017-05-30"27–30 May 20178,77810–2025–3595–1155–155–10
Kantar Sofresdata-sort-value="2017-05-28"24–28 May 20172,02220–3040–50140–15510–155–10
OpinionWaydata-sort-value="2017-05-24"23–24 May 20172,10325–3025–30140–16010–15
OpinionWaydata-sort-value="2017-05-18"16–18 May 20171,99720–2540–50150–17010–15
OpinionWaydata-sort-value="2017-05-01"24 Apr–1 May 20175,0326–828–43200–21015–25
2012 electiondata-sort-value="2012-06-17"17 Jun 201244.60%10 (FG)280122217219435(DVD)2120

By second round configuration

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
LeftLREMRightFN
OpinionWay13–15 Jun 20172,90141%59%
58%42%
60%40%

By first round vote

In each case, results were based on interviews in which respondents were presented with a list of candidates in their constituency.

LREM/MoDem–LR/UDI/DVD

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
First round voteLREM/
MoDem
LR/UDI/
DVD
No vote
OpinionWay13–15 Jun 20172,901data-sort-value="0"FI33%8%59%
data-sort-value="1"PS45%10%45%
data-sort-value="4"FN8%30%62%

PS/FI/DVG–LREM/MoDem

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
First round votePS/FI/
DVG
LREM/
MoDem
No vote
OpinionWay13–15 Jun 20172,901data-sort-value="3"LR/UDI18%50%32%
data-sort-value="4"FN28%6%66%

LREM/MoDem–FN

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
First round voteLREM/
MoDem
FNNo vote
OpinionWay13–15 Jun 20172,901data-sort-value="0"FI27%11%62%
data-sort-value="1"PS64%4%32%
data-sort-value="3"LR/UDI35%32%33%

By constituency

First round

Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Patrick Mennucci
Corinne Versini
Solange Biaggi
Jeanne Marti
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201757.86%34.31%12.43%22.66%10.63%10.92%9.07%
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-05-18"17–18 May 201761635%13%26%9%12%5%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-18"17–18 May 201760238%13%24%10%12%3%

Charente-Maritime's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Cédric Ruffié
Jean-Marc Soubeste
Olivier Falorni
Otilia Ferreira
Bruno Léal
Jean-Marc de Lacoste-Lareymondie
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201748.84%10.92%3.91%36.54%26.99%9.83%7.03%4.79%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-06-06"2–6 Jun 201768515%3%34%25%12%8%3%

Eure's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Michaël Després
Bruno Le Maire
Coumba Dioukhané
Fabienne Delacour
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201752.01%11.43%44.46%6.16%22.09%15.86%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-24"22–24 May 201760316%48%7%20%9%

Gard's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Danielle Floutier
Béatrice Leccia
Marie Sara
Pascale Mourrut
Gilbert Collard
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201750.24%13.07%2.99%32.16%14.22%32.27%5.30%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-31"30–31 May 201760014%3%31%17.5%32%2.5%

Gironde's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Servane Crussière
Aude Darchy
Michèle Delaunay
Pierre Hurmic
Catherine Fabre
Anne Walryck
Guillaume Boraud
Julie Rechagneux
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201748.92%1.90%13.28%10.69%8.04%39.78%15.79%1.22%3.76%5.54%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-06-07"5–7 Jun 20176912%17%14%5.5%35%15%1.5%5%5%

Landes's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Céline Piot
Renaud Lagrave
Geneviève Darrieussecq
Marie-Françoise Nadau
Christophe Bardin
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201745.72%12.04%13.46%43.34%11.60%11.48%8.07%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-06-05"1–5 Jun 201768713%12%43%10%12%10%

Pas-de-Calais's 11th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Hervé Poly
Jean-Pierre Carpentier
Philippe Kemel
Marine Tondelier
Anne Roquet
Alexandrine Pintus
Marine Le Pen
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201753.33%5.00%9.97%10.83%3.55%16.43%4.18%46.02%4.01%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-06-03"1–3 Jun 20176014%13.5%14.5%2.5%15.5%4%44%2%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Robert Bareille
Didier Bayens
Bernard Uthurry
Véronique Zenoni
Loïc Corrégé
Jean Lassalle
Laurent Inchauspé
Marc Oxibar
Gilles Hustaix
Anita Lopepe
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201741.47%3.35%7.67%12.63%2.69%25.41%17.71%5.42%9.66%4.28%8.51%2.68%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-06-02"29 May–2 Jun 20176894.5%9%16%1.5%24.5%16%3.5%11.5%5%7%1.5%

Rhône's 6th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Laurent Legendre
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem
Béatrice Vessiller
Bruno Bonnell
Emmanuelle Haziza
Stéphane Poncet
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201753.24%14.71%16.54%4.75%36.69%10.67%9.03%7.60%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-18"16–18 May 201760117%19%4%30%13%12%5%

Paris's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Lorraine Questiaux
Anne-Françoise Prunières
Marine Rosset
Gilles Seignan
Gilles Le Gendre
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet
Henri Guaino
Jean-Pierre Lecoq
Pauline Betton
Manon Bouquin
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201737.91%1.35%5.96%6.11%4.72%41.81%18.13%4.51%9.17%1.26%2.31%4.66%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-31"29–31 May 20175521%7.5%7%3%42%24%3%7%1%3%1.5%

Essonne's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Michel Nouaille
Farida Amrani
Manuel Valls
Alban Bakary
Caroline Varin
Jean-Luc Raymond
David Soullard
Danielle Oger
Dieudonné M'bala M'bala
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201759.89%7.58%17.61%25.45%7.83%11.93%6.89%2.40%10.20%3.84%6.27%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-23"22–23 May 20176056.5%26%30%2.5%12%0.5%3%12%3%4.5%

Hauts-de-Seine's 9th

The campaign of Marie-Laure Godin commissioned and released a PollingVox survey in this constituency, after which the campaign of Thierry Solère published an Ifop poll contradicting its findings.[3]

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Fabienne Gambiez
Aminata Niakate
Thierry Solère
Marie-Laure Godin
Nina Smarandi
Others
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-11"11 Jun 201746.66%6.37%5.01%42.60%31.38%3.21%11.43%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2017-06-03"2–3 Jun 20175978%4.5%44%29%4%10.5%
PollingVoxdata-sort-value="2017-05-31"24–31 May 20175647%32%42%9%

Second round

Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Patrick Mennucci
Corinne Versini
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-18"18 Jun 201764.22%59.85%40.15%
Harris Interactivedata-sort-value="2017-05-18"17–18 May 201761656%44%
Ifop-Fiducial17–18 May 201760253%47%
61%39%

Charente-Maritime's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Cédric Ruffié
Olivier Falorni
Otilia Ferreira
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-18"18 Jun 201756.58%69.02%30.98%
Ifop-Fiducial2–6 Jun 201768555%45%
20%41%39%

Eure's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Bruno Le Maire
Fabienne Delacour
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-18"18 Jun 201757.74%64.53%35.47%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-24"22–24 May 201760376%24%

Gard's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Marie Sara
Pascale Mourrut
Gilbert Collard
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-18"18 Jun 201751.79%49.84%50.16%
Ifop-Fiducial30–31 May 201760056%44%
41%22%37%

Landes's 3rd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Boris Vallaud
Jean-Pierre Steiner
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-18"18 Jun 201746.78%50.75%49.25%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-06-14"13–14 Jun 201765146%54%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Bernard Uthurry
Loïc Corrégé
Jean Lassalle
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-18"18 Jun 201746.63%47.21%52.79%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-06-02"29 May–2 Jun 201768931%35%34%

Rhône's 6th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Laurent Legendre
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem
Bruno Bonnell
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-18"18 Jun 201759.58%39.82%60.18%
Ifop-Fiducial16–18 May 201760140%60%
38%62%

Paris's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Gilles Le Gendre
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-18"18 Jun 201748.47%54.53%45.47%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-31"29–31 May 201755268%32%

Essonne's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Farida Amrani
Manuel Valls
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-18"18 Jun 201763.45%49.70%50.30%
Ifop-Fiducialdata-sort-value="2017-05-23"22–23 May 201760550%50%

Hauts-de-Seine's 9th

The campaign of Marie-Laure Godin commissioned and released a PollingVox survey in this constituency, after which the campaign of Thierry Solère published an Ifop poll contradicting its findings.[3]

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Thierry Solère
Marie-Laure Godin
2017 electiondata-sort-value="2017-06-18"18 Jun 201755.62%56.53%43.47%
PollingVoxdata-sort-value="2017-05-31"24–31 May 201756443%57%

Pre-2017 polling

First round

Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 3.51%. The total for miscellaneous candidates in 2012 also includes regionalist, ecologist, and far-right candidates who were not counted separately in the CSA poll, and would otherwise be 0.52%.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
EXGFGMRCPSPRGDVGEELVMoDemUDIUMPDVDDLFFNDIV
CSAdata-sort-value="2014-11-20"18–20 Nov 20149551%8%18%7%12%24%1%23%6%
2012 electiondata-sort-value="2012-06-10"10 Jun 201242.78%0.98%6.91%(DVG)29.35%1.65%3.40%5.46%1.77%27.12%7.54%(DVD)13.60%2.23%

Second round seat projections

Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 15. The total for miscellaneous candidates in 2012 also includes regionalist and far-right candidates who were not counted separately in the CSA poll, and would otherwise be 0.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
FGMRCPSPRGDVGEELVMoDemUDIUMPDVDDLFFNDIV
CSAdata-sort-value="2014-11-20"18–20 Nov 201495556–66485–50514–241–3
2012 electiondata-sort-value="2012-06-17"17 Jun 201244.60%10(DVG)280122217219435(DVD)23

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Laurent de Boissieu. Plaidoyer pour la rationalisation de l'offre électorale. Revue politique et parlementaire. 2 January 2018. 26 February 2018.
  2. Web site: Législatives 2017 : " En Marche " vers une majorité ?. OpinionWay. 3 May 2017. 26 February 2018.
  3. News: Jean-Baptiste Garat. Édouard Philippe en campagne pour Solère, un candidat LR "constructif". Le Figaro. 5 June 2017. 26 February 2018.