Opinion polling for the 2016 Scottish Parliament election explained

The 2016 Scottish Parliament election was held on Thursday 5 May 2016[1] to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament. It was the fifth general election since the parliament was re-established in 1999.

Polling data

Graphical summary

The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.

Constituency Vote (FPTP)

2016

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/clientSample sizeSNPLabConLib DemOthersLead
5 May 2,279,153 46.5% 22.6% 22.0% 7.8% 1.1% 23.9%
data-sort-value="2016-05-04" 2–4 May YouGov/The Times 1,445 48% 22% 19% 7% 4% 26%
data-sort-value="2016-05-02" 1–2 May Survation/Daily Record 1,024 49% 21% 19% 7% 5% 28%
data-sort-value="2016-05-01" 1 May BBC Scotland debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
data-sort-value="2016-04-28" 23–28 Apr Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,074 49% 23% 17% 6% 4% 26%
data-sort-value="2016-04-25" 18–25 Apr Ipsos MORI/STV 1,015 51% 19% 18% 6% 6% 32%
data-sort-value="2016-04-24" 1–24 Apr TNS 1,035 52% 22% 17% 7% 3% 30%
data-sort-value="2016-04-20" 15–20 Apr Survation/Daily Record 1,005 53% 18% 17% 7% 5% 35%
data-sort-value="2016-04-15" 11–15 Apr BMG Research/Herald 1,012 53% 21% 16% 6% 3% 32%
data-sort-value="2016-04-15" 6–15 Apr Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 51% 19% 18% 5% 7% 32%
data-sort-value="2016-04-11" 7–11 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,012 50% 21% 18% 5% 6% 29%
data-sort-value="2016-04-03" 23 Mar–3 Apr Survation/Unison Scotland 1,003 52% 21% 16% 6% 4% 31%
data-sort-value="2016-03-29" 29 Mar STV debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
data-sort-value="2016-03-24" 24 Mar BBC Scotland debate between Coburn, Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
data-sort-value="2016-03-22" 2–22 Mar TNS 1,013 56% 19% 15% 6% 3% 37%
data-sort-value="2016-03-17" 10–17 Mar Survation/Daily Record 1,051 54% 20% 16% 7% 4% 34%
data-sort-value="2016-03-09" 7–9 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,070 49% 19% 19% 6% 7% 30%
data-sort-value="2016-02-29" 25–29 Feb Survation/Daily Mail 1,022 54% 21% 16% 5% 4% 33%
data-sort-value="2016-02-24" 3–24 Feb TNS 1,036 60% 21% 13% 4% 2% 39%
data-sort-value="2016-02-16" 11–16 Feb Survation/Daily Record 1,006 53% 22% 16% 6% 3% 31%
data-sort-value="2016-02-07" 1–7 Feb Ipsos MORI/STV 1,000 53% 20% 16% 6% 5% 33%
data-sort-value="2016-02-04" 1–4 Feb YouGov/The Times 1,022 50% 19% 20% 6% 5% 30%
data-sort-value="2016-01-25" 6–25 Jan TNS 1,016 57% 21% 17% 3% 2% 36%
data-sort-value="2016-01-14" 8–14 Jan Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,053 50% 21% 17% 6% 5% 29%
data-sort-value="2016-01-12" 8–12 Jan Survation/Daily Record 1,029 52% 21% 16% 7% 4% 31%

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

Regional Vote (AMS)

2016

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/clientSample sizeSNPLabConGreenLib DemUKIPRISE[2] OthersLead
5 May 2,285,752 41.7% 19.1% 22.9% 6.6% 5.2% 2.0% 0.5% 2.0% 18.8%
data-sort-value="2016-05-04" 2–4 May YouGov/The Times 1,445 41% 19% 20% 9% 6% 4% 1% 1% 21%
data-sort-value="2016-05-02" 1–2 May Survation/Daily Record 1,024 44% 19% 20% 7% 6% 2% 2% 24%
data-sort-value="2016-05-01" 1 May BBC Scotland debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
data-sort-value="2016-04-28" 23–28 Apr Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,074 44% 22% 19% 6% 4% 3% 2% <1% 22%
data-sort-value="2016-04-25" 18–25 Apr Ipsos MORI/STV 1,015 45% 17% 19% 10% 7% 1% <1% <1% 26%
data-sort-value="2016-04-24" 1–24 Apr TNS 1,035 45% 22% 18% 8% 5% <1% 1% <1% 23%
data-sort-value="2016-04-20" 15–20 Apr Survation/Daily Record 1,005 43% 17% 18% 11% 7% 4% 2% 25%
data-sort-value="2016-04-15" 11–15 Apr BMG Research/Herald 1,012 46% 20% 16% 7% 6% 4% 0% 26%
data-sort-value="2016-04-15" 6–15 Apr Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 47% 18% 19% 8% 4% 3% 1% <1% 28%
data-sort-value="2016-04-11" 7–11 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,012 45% 19% 18% 8% 5% 3% 1% 1% 26%
data-sort-value="2016-04-03" 23 Mar–3 Apr Survation/Unison Scotland 1,003 44% 19% 16% 10% 7% 4% 1% 25%
data-sort-value="2016-03-29" 29 Mar STV debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
data-sort-value="2016-03-24" 24 Mar BBC Scotland debate between Coburn, Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
data-sort-value="2016-03-22" 2–22 Mar TNS 1,013 47% 21% 15% 8% 6% 1% 2% 26%
data-sort-value="2016-03-17" 10–17 Mar Survation/Daily Record 1,051 42% 18% 18% 10% 6% 5% 1% 24%
data-sort-value="2016-03-09" 7–9 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,070 43% 17% 19% 8% 5% 4% 1% 1% 24%
data-sort-value="2016-02-29" 25–29 Feb Survation/Daily Mail 1,022 43% 19% 14% 9% 7% 6% 1% 24%
data-sort-value="2016-02-24" 3–24 Feb TNS 1,036 55% 21% 13% 6% 4% 34%
data-sort-value="2016-02-16" 11–16 Feb Survation/Daily Record 1,006 45% 18% 15% 9% 6% 6% 1% 27%
data-sort-value="2016-02-07" 1–7 Feb Ipsos MORI/STV 1,000 49% 19% 15% 6% 8% 1% <1% 2% 30%
data-sort-value="2016-02-04" 1–4 Feb YouGov/The Times 1,022 42% 20% 20% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% 22%
data-sort-value="2016-01-25" 6–25 Jan TNS 1,016 52% 19% 17% 6% 6% <1% <1% 1% 33%
data-sort-value="2016-01-14" 8–14 Jan Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,053 48% 19% 17% 5% 7% 2% 1% 1% 29%
data-sort-value="2016-01-12" 8–12 Jan Survation/Daily Record 1,029 42% 20% 16% 9% 8% 5% <1% 22%

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

Notes and References

  1. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/4/enacted Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011
  2. In August 2015, the Scottish Socialist Party announced it would stand as part of an electoral alliance called RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance