Opinion polling for the 2015 French departmental elections explained

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2015 French departmental elections, which were held in two rounds on 22 and 29 March 2015.

Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.

National

First round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		EXG	FG	EELV	PS	DVG	MoDem	UDI	UMP	DVD	FN	DIV
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
2015 election	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	–	49.83%	0.07%	6.10%	2.03%	21.46%	7.10%	0.64%	1.29%	27.46%<	-- UMP + UD -->	7.21%	25.24%	1.40%
Ifop-Fiducial	data-sort-value="2015-03-19"	18–19 Mar 2015	1,132	53%	data-sort-value="0%"	<0.5%	6%	3%	20%	4%	29%			6%	30%	2%
OpinionWay	data-sort-value="2015-03-19"	17–19 Mar 2015	2,274	54%	–	6%	3%	22%	4%	0.5%	0.5%	29%	4%	29%	2%
Harris Interactive	data-sort-value="2015-03-18"	17–18 Mar 2015	1,015	–	data-sort-value="0%"	<0.5%	7%	2%	19%	5%	1%	28%		8%	29%	1%
CSA	data-sort-value="2015-03-18"	16–18 Mar 2015	979	56%	data-sort-value="0%"	<0.5%	7%	3%	20%	4%	3%	27%		5%	28%	3%
Ipsos	data-sort-value="2015-03-17"	16–17 Mar 2015	1,038	54%	–	7%	2%	21%	5%	0.5%	(DVD)	30%	4%	29%	1.5%
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-03-13"	11–13 Mar 2015	1,473	54%	data-sort-value="0%"	<0.5%	6%	3%	19%	5%	data-sort-value="0%"	<0.5%	29%		5%	30%	3%
Harris Interactive	data-sort-value="2015-03-11"	10–11 Mar 2015	1,020	–	0.5%	7%	3%	26%		0.5%	32%			29%	2%
Odoxa	data-sort-value="2015-03-06"	5–6 Mar 2015	880	–	1%	8%	4%	20%		–	29%		–	31%	7%
Harris Interactive	data-sort-value="2015-03-05"	3–5 Mar 2015	1,030	–	1%	6%	4%	21%		3%	28%			30%	7%
OpinionWay	data-sort-value="2015-03-05"	3–5 Mar 2015	977	56%	–	7%	2%	21%	5%	1%	1%	29%	5%	28%	1%
CSA	data-sort-value="2015-03-04"	2–4 Mar 2015	965	58%	data-sort-value="0%"	<0.5%	6%	2%	21%	4%	5%		25%	5%	29%	3%
Odoxa	data-sort-value="2015-02-27"	26–27 Feb 2015	807	–	2%	9%	4%	19%		–	27%		–	33%	6%
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-02-20"	19–20 Feb 2015	918	57%	2%	6%	7%	20%	–	–	28%		–	30%	7%
Ifop-Fiducial	data-sort-value="2015-02-13"	11–13 Feb 2015	900	–	2%	7%	6%	21%	–	6%	27%		–	29%	2%
BVA	data-sort-value="2015-01-30"	29–30 Jan 2015	1,028	–	2%	9%	7%	18%		8%	5%	25%	–	26%	–
Odoxa	data-sort-value="2015-01-23"	22–23 Jan 2015	1,015	–	1%	10%	7%	20%		6%	7%	23%	–	26%	–
Odoxa	data-sort-value="2014-12-12"	11–12 Dec 2014	1,002	–	2%	9%	7%	17%		5%	7%	25%	–	28%	–

By second round configuration

The Ifop poll conducted from 23 to 24 March 2015 tested hypotheses in cantons in which specific configurations were present in the second round; the sample size provided represents the entire poll and not that within each configuration.

Left–right–FN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		Left	Right	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Odoxa	data-sort-value="2014-12-12"	11–12 Dec 2014	1,002	–	32%	39%	29%
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-03-24"	23–24 Mar 2015	1,902	–	35%	34%	31%
Harris Interactive	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	991	–	37%	41%	22%

Left–right

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		Left	Right
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-03-24"	23–24 Mar 2015	1,902	–	44%	56%
Harris Interactive	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	991	–	42%	58%

Left–FN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		Left	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-03-24"	23–24 Mar 2015	1,902	–	54%	46%
Harris Interactive	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	991	–	60%	40%

Right–FN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		Right	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-03-24"	23–24 Mar 2015	1,902	–	63%	37%
Harris Interactive	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	991	–	71%	29%

Departmental projections

The departmental projections below were constructed for the 93 departments of metropolitan France excluding Corse-du-Sud and Haute-Corse.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Left	Right	Hung
Polling firm	Fieldwork date
2015 election	data-sort-value="2015-03-29"	29 Mar 2015	29	64	0
OpinionWay	data-sort-value="2015-03-27"	27 Mar 2015	27	61	5
OpinionWay	data-sort-value="2015-03-23"	23 Mar 2015	25	63	5
OpinionWay	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	19	71	3
OpinionWay	data-sort-value="2015-03-19"	19 Mar 2015	20	66	7

Cantonal projections

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Left	Right	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
OpinionWay	data-sort-value="2015-03-27"	27 Mar 2015	–	750–800	1100–1150	60–100
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-03-24"	23–24 Mar 2015	1,902	560–680	970–1110	50–110

Aisne

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		FG/ PCF	PS/ DVG	UMP/ UDI	FN	DIV
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
2015 election	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	–	46.73%	2.63%	28.92%	29.60%	38.67%	0.17%
Odoxa	data-sort-value="2015-03-10"	6–10 Mar 2015	814	–	7%	20%	24%	41%	8%

Dordogne

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		FG/ PCF	PS/ PRG	DVG/ EELV	UMP/UDI/ MoDem	DVD	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
2015 election	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	–	39.96%	10.40%	33.67%<	-- PS + UG -->	4.44%	19.94%	10.18%	21.37%
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-03-12"	11–12 Mar 2015	804	48%	10%	22%	10%	26%	7%	25%

Gard

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		FG	PS	DVG/ EELV	UMP/UDI/ MoDem	DVD/ DLF	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
2015 election	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	–	46.02%	11.77%	15.78%	9.62%	22.21%	3.48%	35.54%
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-03-17"	16–17 Mar 2015	604	52%	10%	16%	9%	25%	7%	33%

Gironde

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		FG	PS/ DVG	EELV	UMP/UDI/ MoDem/CPNT	DVD	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
2015 election	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	–	49.45%	8.05%	33.05%<	-- PS + UG + DVG -->	2.60%	31.84%	1.22%	22.78%
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-03-14"	13–14 Mar 2015	802	50%	7%	24%	11%	28%	9%	21%

Landes

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		FG	PS	EELV	UMP/UDI/ MoDem	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
2015 election	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	–	42.80%	7.85%	38.79%<	-- PS + UG + DVG -->	1.62%	32.63%	18.67%
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-03-12"	11–12 Mar 2015	802	50%	11%	28%	6%	32%	23%

Pyrénées-Orientales

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		PS	DVG/FG/ EELV	UMP/ UDI	FN	DIV
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
2015 election	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	–	42.80%	25.02%	7.97%	23.65%	31.42%	11.95%
Ifop	data-sort-value="2015-03-17"	16–17 Mar 2015	604	48%	22%	10%	30%	33%	5%

Essonne

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		FG/ PCF	PS	UMP/ UDI	DVD	FN	DIV
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
2015 election	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	–	52.58%	5.08%	31.47%	31.57%<	-- UMP + UD -->	8.32%	22.71%	0.85%
PollingVox	data-sort-value="2015-03-19"	19 Mar 2015	–	–	11%	23%	31%	5%	23%	7%
Odoxa	data-sort-value="2015-03-05"	3–5 Mar 2015	807	–	16%	22%	25%	9%	20%	8%

Val-de-Marne

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size		FG/ PCF	PS/ DVG	EELV	UMP/ UDI	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
2015 election	data-sort-value="2015-03-22"	22 Mar 2015	–	55.56%	17.20%	21.95%	6.21%	33.33%	17.21%
Odoxa	data-sort-value="2015-03-13"	11–13 Mar 2015	813	–	23%	19%	8%	31%	19%

External links

Notices of the French polling commission