Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election explained

Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 50th New Zealand Parliament by various organisations. The five main polling organisations are Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos), MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News Reid Research), The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll), Roy Morgan Research, and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2011 election. The second graph shows parties that received 1.0% or more (but less than 5.0%) of the party vote, or won an electorate seat, at the 2011 election. Parties which have polled over 1.0% since the 2011 election are also included.

Individual polls

PollDate[1] <-- the order is National - Labour - Green - NZF - Māori - Mana - ACT - United Future - Conservative -->NationalLabourGreenNZ FirstMāoriManaACTUnited FutureConInternetInternet
Mana
2011 election result[2] 26 Nov 201147.31 27.48 11.06 6.59 1.43 1.08 1.07 0.60 2.65
26 Nov 2011 – Don Brash resigns as leader of ACT over the party's low election result.
13 Dec 2011 – David Shearer replaced Phil Goff as leader of the Labour Party.
14 Dec 2011 – The Fifth National Government is sworn in for a second term, continuing their confidence and supply agreements with the ACT, Maori and United Future parties, but with a reduced seven seat-majority.
20 Dec 2011 – The 50th New Zealand Parliament is sworn in.
Roy Morgan Research[3] 3–15 Jan 201247 27.5 14.5 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[4] 16–29 Jan 201246 30.5 13 5.5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 30 Jan – 12 Feb 201245.5 31 11.5 6 1.5 1 1 0.5
3 News Reid Research[6] 19 Feb 201246.5 29.4 13.3 5.0 1.3 1.3 0.2 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[7] 13–26 Feb 201245.5 31.5 13 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[8] 27 Feb – 11 Mar 201248.5 30 12.5 5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5
21 Mar 2012 – Nick Smith resigns from his ministerial portfolios and Cabinet over his conduct in 2010 while Minister of ACC.[9]
One News Colmar Brunton[10] 24–28 March 201251 29 11 3.1 0.9 1 0.5 0.2 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[11] 12 Mar – 1 Apr 201244 30.5 17 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[12] 2–15 Apr 201249.5 26.5 12.5 6.5 1.5 1 1
3 News Reid Research[13] 22 Apr 201249.8 29.4 14.1 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll[14] 19–29 Apr 201248.1 34.8 9.2 4.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.1
Roy Morgan Research[15] 16–29 Apr 201247 28.5 15 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[16] 30 Apr – 13 May 201244.5 30 15 5.5 1 0.5 1
24 May 2012 – Finance Minister Bill English delivers the 2012 budget, described for the second consecutive year as a "zero" budget. The National government aims to record a $197m surplus in 2014/15, down from $1300m in the 2011 budget.[17] [18]
Roy Morgan Research[19] 14–27 May 201244 30.5 13.5 5 2 1 1 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[20] 26–30 June 201247 33 13 2.2 1.3 1 0.7 0 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[21] 28 May – 7 Jun 201246 31 12.5 5.5 1.5 1 0.5
3 News Reid Research[22] 10 Jun 201245.8 33.2 14.4 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.5 1.1
Roy Morgan Research[23] 8–24 Jun 201247.5 32 12 4 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Herald-DigiPoll[24] 18–25 Jun 201247.5 34.0 9.1 4.4 1.3 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
26 Jun 2012 – The Mixed Ownership Model Bill, which allows the Government to implement its controversial "mixed ownership model" partial privatisation of four state-owned enterprises, passes its third reading.[25] [26]
Roy Morgan Research[27] 25 Jun – 8 Jul 201245.5 32.5 13 4.5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[28] 9–22 Jul 201247.5 30 11 5.5 1 0.5 1 0.5 3
Fairfax Media Ipsos[29] 19–23 Jul 201244.9 32.6 11.9 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.7
One News Colmar Brunton[30] 28 Jul – 1 Aug 201248 32 12 2.5 2.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.9
3 News Reid Research[31] 5 Aug 201250.6 30.8 11.2 3.0 1.6 0.2 0.1 1.7
Roy Morgan Research[32] 23 Jul – 5 Aug 201244 32 14 4 2 1 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[33] 13–26 Aug 201244.5 32 14.5 5 2.5 1 0.5
29 Aug 2012 – Labour MP Louisa Wall's member's bill to legalise same-sex marriage in New Zealand passes its first reading 80 votes to 40.[34]
Herald-DigiPoll[35] 20–31 Aug 201247.9 32.0 10.7 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[36] 27 Aug – 9 Sep 201246.5 31 12.5 4.5 2.5 1 0.5 1
One News Colmar Brunton[37] 15–19 Sep 201245 34 12 1.8 2.9 0.6 0.9 0.1 2
Roy Morgan Research[38] 10–23 Sep 201243.5 33 11.5 5 2.5 1.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[39] 24 Sep – 7 Oct 201241.5 33.5 13.5 6.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 2
3 News Reid Research[40] 14 Oct 201248.8 33.0 10.6 3.2 1.5 0.1 0.1 2.0
Roy Morgan Research[41] 8–24 Oct 201243.5 29 13 7.5 3.5 0.5 0.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[42] 27–31 Oct 201245 32 12 4.9 2.2 1 0.6 0.2 1
Roy Morgan Research[43] 29 Oct – 11 Nov 201245.5 32.5 10.5 5 2 1 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[44] 12–25 Nov 201245 31.5 13.5 6.5 1 0.5 0.5 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[45] 24–28 Nov 201244 35 13 3.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.3
3 News Reid Research[46] 2 Dec 201247.0 34.6 12.9 2.0 1.2 0.1 0.2 0.7
Fairfax Media Ipsos[47] 28 Nov – 3 Dec 201246.2 34.4 10.5 3.8 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.2 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[48] 26 Nov – 9 Dec 201245.5 33.5 11 5 1.5 1 1 1
Roy Morgan Research[49] 2–14 Jan 201346 31.5 12 5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[50] 14–27 Jan 201346 31.5 13.5 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
22 Jan 2013 – Prime Minister John Key announces a cabinet reshuffle, promoting three MPs to Cabinet and dropping three others.
31 January 2013 – David Carter is elected Speaker of the House, after incumbent Speaker Lockwood Smith resigns from Parliament to become High Commissioner to the United Kingdom.
Roy Morgan Research[51] 27 Jan – 10 Feb 201344 34.5 13.5 4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 2
One News Colmar Brunton[52] [53] 9–13 Feb 201349 33 11 3.9 1 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.9
Fairfax Media Ipsos[54] 10–14 Feb 201344.9 36.3 10.7 2.8 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 1.6
3 News Reid Research[55] 24 Feb 201351.4 32.6 10.8 3.4 0.4 0 0.1 0.9
Roy Morgan Research[56] 11–24 Feb 201347.5 30.5 12.5 3 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[57] 25 Feb – 10 Mar 201343.5 32.5 13.5 5 2 0 0.5 0.5 2
Herald-DigiPoll[58] 11–17 Mar 201348.5 36.4 9.0 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 1.3
Roy Morgan Research[59] 11–24 Mar 201344 34.5 13 3 2.5 0.5 0.5 1 1
Roy Morgan Research[60] 1–14 Apr 201340.5 35.5 13.5 5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
17 Apr 2013 – Labour MP Louisa Wall's member's bill to legalise same-sex marriage in New Zealand passes its final reading 77 votes to 44.[61]
18 April 2013 – Labour and the Greens make their first joint policy announcement, NZ Power, a single buyer of electricity[62]
3 News Reid Research[63] 13–18 Apr 201349.4 30.2 11.5 3.8 1.0 1.0 0.5 2.0
One News Colmar Brunton[64] [65] 14–18 Apr 201343 36 13 3.0 1.3 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.7
Roy Morgan Research[66] 15–28 Apr 201346.5 31.5 11 4.5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 2
29 Apr 2013 – Sitting MP Parekura Horomia (Labour, Ikaroa-Rawhiti) dies from health complications, aged 62.
Roy Morgan Research[67] 29 Apr – 12 May 201344 32 12 5 2 1 1.5 0.5 1.5
10 May 2013 – 49 percent of Mighty River Power is floated on the stock exchange in the first "mixed ownership model" float. The share issue price is set at $2.50, below the government's expected $2.70 to $2.80.
16 May 2013 – Finance Minister Bill English delivers the 2013 budget. The government revised its expected 2014/15 surplus to $75m.
One News Colmar Brunton[68] 18–22 May 201349 33 9 3.6 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.7 1.7
3 News Reid Research[69] 17–23 May 201347.1 33.1 12.0 2.2 2.2 0.5 0.2 1.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos[70] 19–23 May 201349.1 31.9 11.2 3.2 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.6
Roy Morgan Research[71] 13–26 May 201341 35 12 4.5 2 0.5 0.5 2.5
24 May 2013 – Mighty River Power's share price on the NZX falls below its $2.50 listing price., it has not traded above its listing price since.[72]
31 May 2013 – United Future is de-registered as a political party by the Electoral Commission after it cannot prove it had at least 500 financial members.
Roy Morgan Research[73] 3–16 Jun 201344 33 11.5 6 2 1 0.5 0 2
Herald-DigiPoll[74] 12–23 Jun 201348.8 30.9 10.5 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.5
19 Jun 2013 – Green Party announces u-turn on quantitative easing policy.[75]
Roy Morgan Research[76] 17–30 Jun 201346.5 31.5 13 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 2
29 Jun 2013 – Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election: Meka Whaitiri wins the by-election and retains the electorate for Labour. The Mana Party comes second and the Māori Party third (National did not field a candidate).
Roy Morgan Research[77] 1–14 Jul 201347 31 11.5 4.5 2 1.5 0.5 1.5
3 News Reid Research[78] 9–14 Jul 201349.5 31.0 12.0 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.2 1.1
Roy Morgan Research[79] 15–28 Jul 201351 29 10 4 1.5 1 1 0 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[80] 27–31 Jul 201346 33 14 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.6
1 Aug 2013 – The controversial GCSB Amendment Bill passes its second reading.
Roy Morgan Research[81] 29 Jul – 11 Aug 201344 34 14 3 2 0.5 0.5 1
Fairfax Media Ipsos[82] 10–15 Aug 201348.3 31.6 12.3 2.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 1.4
13 Aug 2013 – United Future is re-registered by the Electoral Commission after confirming it had 500 financial members.
21 August 2013 – The controversial GCSB Amendment Bill passes its third reading and becomes law.
22 August 2013 – David Shearer announced his intention to step down as leader of the Labour Party.
Roy Morgan Research[83] 12–25 Aug 201344 31.5 14 5.5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1
Roy Morgan Research[84] 26 Aug – 8 Sep 201341 32.5 15 6.5 1 0.5 1 0.5 1.5
15 Sep 2013 – David Cunliffe is elected as leader of the Labour Party.
One News Colmar Brunton[85] 14–18 Sep 201347 34 12 3.6 1.3 0 0.2 0.3 0.8
Herald-DigiPoll[86] 17–23 Sep 201343.7 37.7 11.3 4.4 0.8 0.7 0.1 0 1.0
Roy Morgan Research[87] 16–29 Sep 201342 37 11.5 4.5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[88] 30 Sep – 13 Oct 201341.5 37 12.5 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
12 Oct 2013 – 2013 local body elections: Sitting MP Lianne Dalziel (Labour, Christchurch East) wins the Christchurch mayoralty and subsequently resigns from Parliament.
Fairfax Media Ipsos[89] 19–23 Oct 201350.2 33.6 10.7 2.3 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.7
One News Colmar Brunton[90] 19–23 Oct 201345 34 13 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.6
Roy Morgan Research[91] 14–27 Oct 201342 35.5 11 4.5 1.5 0.5 1 0.5 2.5
3 News Reid Research[92] [93] 3–7 Nov 201346.3 32.2 10.4 4.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.8
Roy Morgan Research[94] 28 Oct – 10 Nov 201345.5 32 12.5 5 1 1 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[95] 11–24 Nov 201344.5 34 11 3.5 1 1 0.5 0.5 2
30 Nov 2013 – Christchurch East by-election: Poto Williams wins the by-election, retaining the electorate for Labour with 61% of the vote. National comes second, the Green Party third, and the Conservative Party fourth.
Roy Morgan Research[96] 25 Nov – 8 Dec 201345 30.5 14.5 5 1.5 1 2
Herald-DigiPoll[97] 9–17 Dec 201346.8 35.4 10.8 3.9 1.3 0.9 0 0 0.7
Roy Morgan Research[98] 6–19 Jan 201443.5 33.5 12.5 4 2 0.5 0.5 2.5
3 News Reid Research[99] 2 Feb 201444.5 33.5 12.4 5.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.1
Roy Morgan Research[100] 20 Jan – 2 Feb 201447 33 11 4.5 1.5 1 1.5 0.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos[101] 8–10 Feb 201449.4 31.8 10.0 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 2.1
Roy Morgan Research[102] 3–16 Feb 201448 30 12 5.5 0.5 1 1 0.5 1 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[103] 15–19 Feb 201451 34 8 3.1 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.3 1.3
Roy Morgan Research17 Feb – 2 Mar 201448.5 30.5 10.5 4.5 1.5 0.5 1 0.5 2.5
10 Mar 2014 – Prime Minister John Key announces that the election would take place on 20 September 2014
Herald-DigiPoll[104] 6–16 Mar 201450.8 29.5 13.1 3.6 0.2 0.1 0.8 0 1.3
Roy Morgan Research[105] 3–16 Mar 201445.5 31.5 14 3.5 2 0.5 0.5 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[106] 22–26 Mar 201447 31 11 7 0.7 0 0.3 0.1 2.3
3 News Reid Research[107] 30 Mar 201445.9 31.2 11.2 4.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.1 1.9 0.4
Roy Morgan Research[108] 17–30 Mar 201443 32 13 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[109] 31 Mar – 14 Apr 201448.5 28.5 11.5 5.5 1 1 0.5 0 2 1
23 Apr 2014 – Labour MP Shane Jones announces he will step down from the Labour Party to take up a government economic development role in the Pacific, focusing on fisheries.[110]
Roy Morgan Research[111] 21 Apr – 4 May 201442.5 31 14.5 6 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos[112] 10–12 May 201447.6 29.5 12.7 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.6
13 May 2014 – The Internet Party is registered as a political party by the Electoral Commission.
15 May 2014 – Finance Minister Bill English delivers the 2014 budget. Surplus for 2014/15-year is $372m. Key initiatives include extending free GP visits to children 12 and under (currently 5 and under), increasing paid maternity leave from 14 to 18 weeks, and increasing Working for Families parental tax credit from $150 to $220 per week. Opposition parties suggest the surplus was produced by "fudging" the numbers and reducing funding for the Christchurch rebuild.
Roy Morgan Research[113] 5–18 May 201445.5 30.5 13.5 6 1 1 0.5 1 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[114] 17–21 May 201451 30 11 4.8 1 0 1 0 1 1
3 News Reid Research[115] 25 May 201450.3 29.5 10.2 5.6 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.0 2.3 0.6
Roy Morgan Research[116] 19 May – 1 Jun 201452.3 29 9 4.5 1.5 0.5 1 1 0.5
27 May 2014 – The Internet Party and Mana Party announce they will contend the election together with a joint party list, under the name Internet–Mana Party.[117]
5 June 2014 – ACT's sole MP, John Banks is found guilty of filing a false electoral return for his 2010 Auckland mayoral election campaign.[118]
Roy Morgan Research[119] 2–15 Jun 201449.5 28 12 4 1 0.5 0.0 1.5 2.5
Herald-DigiPoll[120] 6–16 Jun 201450.4 30.5 10.7 3.6 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.5 1.4
Fairfax Media Ipsos[121] 14–17 Jun 201455.6 23.2 11.9 3.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.9 2.1
18 Jun 2014 – Labour leader David Cunliffe is revealed to have written a letter to the New Zealand immigration service for Chinese businessman Donghua Liu when he was his electorate MP in 2003. NZ Herald reporters had asked Cunliffe about Liu the day before revealing the letter, and he denied any involvement with him.[122]
3 News Reid Research[123] 19–25 Jun 201449.7 27.3 12.7 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.8 1.8
One News Colmar Brunton[124] 21–25 Jun 201450 29 12 3.8 1.2 0.7 0 1 2
Roy Morgan Research[125] 16–29 Jun 201448 28 12 5.5 1.5 1 0 1 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[126] 30 Jun – 13 Jul 201451 23.5 15 6 1 0.5 0.5 1 1.5
3 News Reid Research[127] 8–16 Jul 201449.4 26.7 12.4 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.2 2.7 2.3
Fairfax Media Ipsos[128] 17 Jul 201454.8 24.9 12.4 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.2
Herald-DigiPoll[129] 10–17 Jul 201454.9 26.5 9.9 4.6 0.5 0 0 1.5 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[130] 19–23 Jul 201452 28 10 4.4 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.7 2
Roy Morgan Research[131] 14–27 Jul 201446 30 12 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1 2.5
31 Jul 2014 – Last sitting day of the 50th New Zealand Parliament.
Fairfax Media Ipsos[132] 9–13 Aug 201455.1 22.5 11.3 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.4 2.1
One News Colmar Brunton[133] 9–13 Aug 201450 26 11 5 0.9 0.6 0 2.4 3.9
3 News Reid Research[134] 5–13 Aug 201447.5 29.0 13.0 4.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 2.5 2.0
13 Aug 2014 – Nicky Hager releases the book Dirty Politics, based on leaked e-mails from blogger Cameron Slater, alleging various ways National Party figures participated in Slater's "attack politics." Among other claims, Hager suggests one of John Key's staff members accessed the Labour Party online database, which journalist John Armstrong compared to the Watergate break-in.[135]
Roy Morgan Research[136] 4–17 Aug 201448 27.5 11.5 6.5 1 0.5 0.5 1 2.5
Herald-DigiPoll[137] 14–20 Aug 201450 25.2 13.7 4.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 2.6 2.1
20 Aug 2014 – Writ Day: The Governor-General issues the writ of election, instructing the Electoral Commission to conduct the 2014 general election. Electoral roll closes for printing with 3.06 million eligible voters (late enrolments must cast special declaration votes). Main campaigning season and radio and television advertising begins.
3 News Reid Research[138] 19–25 Aug 201445.0 26.4 13.5 6.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 4.6 2.1
Herald-DigiPoll[139] 21–27 Aug 201450.7 24.1 11.4 5 1 0.3 0.2 3.3 3.4
Fairfax Media Ipsos[140] 23–27 Aug 201450.8 26.1 11.8 4.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 2.7 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[141] 23–27 Aug 201448 28 12 6 0.6 0.4 0 3.2 1.6
30 Aug 2014 – Judith Collins resigns as a minister due to recurring controversies throughout her tenure as Minister of Justice. Her resignation comes following an accusation by Winston Peters that her office came to him with a possible leadership challenge against John Key, and the revelation of an e-mail from blogger Cameron Slater in 2011 that suggests Collins may have undermined a Director of the Serious Fraud Office.[142]
Roy Morgan Research[143] 18–31 Aug 201445 26 16 6 0.5 1 0 3.5 1
3 News Reid Research[144] 26 Aug – 1 Sep 201446.4 25.9 12.6 5.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 4.2 1.7
Herald-DigiPoll[145] 28 Aug – 3 Sep 201450.1 23.8 11.4 6 0.4 0.4 0.3 3.8 3.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos[146] 30 Aug – 3 Sep 201454.2 24.3 12.9 3.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.4 1.3
One News Colmar Brunton[147] 30 Aug – 3 Sep 201450 26 11 7 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.9 2.4
3 News Reid Research[148] 2–8 Sep 201446.7 26.1 13.0 5.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 4.7 1.7
Herald-DigiPoll[149] 4–10 Sep 201448.6 24.6 11.5 8.1 0.7 0.3 0 3.8 2.3
One News Colmar Brunton[150] 6–10 Sep 201446 25 14 7 0.8 1.2 0.2 4 1.4
Fairfax Media Ipsos[151] 6–10 Sep 201452.8 22.4 13.0 4.4 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.6 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[152] 1–14 Sep 201446.5 24 13.5 8 1.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 1
3 News Reid Research[153] [154] 9–15 Sep 201444.5 25.6 14.4 7.1 1.1 0.1 0.1 4.9 2.0
Herald-DigiPoll[155] 11–17 Sep 201448.2 25.9 11.1 8.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 3.3 1.0
One News Colmar Brunton[156] 13–17 Sep 201445 25 12 8 1.6 0.6 0 4.4 1.8
Fairfax Media Ipsos[157] 13–17 Sep 201447.7 26.1 12.0 6.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.5 0.9
20 Sep 2014 – Election Day:
2014 election result[158] 20 Sep 201447.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 0.22 3.97 1.42
PollDate[159] <-- the order is National - Labour - Green - NZF - Māori - Mana - ACT - United Future - Conservative - Internet - Internet/Mana -->NationalLabourGreenNZ FirstMāoriManaACTUnited FutureConInternetInternet
Mana

Preferred Prime Minister

PollDate<-- the order is Key - Shearer - Peters - Norman -->John
Key		David ShearerWinston PetersRussel Norman
3 News Reid Research19 Feb 201245.8 10.1 5.7
One News Colmar Brunton24–28 Mar 201248 11 3
3 News Reid Research 22 Apr 201244.2 10.4 4.2 2.2
Herald-Digipoll19–29 Apr 201263.9 13.1 6.4
One News Colmar Brunton4 Jun 201248 14
3 News Reid Research 10 Jun 201240.5 12.3 4.8 4.0
Herald-Digipoll18–25 Jun 201263.5 14.2 7.3 2.7
One News Colmar Brunton5 Aug 201245 13
3 News Reid Research 5 Aug 201243.2 8.9 6.2 2.0
Herald-Digipoll20–31 Aug 201265.6 12.9 5.8 1.8
One News Colmar Brunton23 Sep 201244 12 4
3 News Reid Research 14 Oct 201241.0 8.5 5.0 2.4
One News Colmar Brunton4 Nov 201242 11 6
One News Colmar Brunton2 Dec 201239 15
3 News Reid Research 2 Dec 201237.4 12.6 5.0 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton13 Feb 201344 15 5 2
Herald-Digipoll21 Mar 201363 18.5 4 2.4
Herald-DigiPoll12–23 Jun 201365.2 12.4 6.4
3 News Reid Research9–14 Jul 201342 12.1
One News Colmar Brunton27–31 Jul 201341 13 4 3
22 August 2013 – David Shearer announced his intention to step down as leader of the Labour Party.
15 September 2013 – David Cunliffe is elected as leader of the Labour Party.
PollDateJohn
Key		David CunliffeWinston PetersRussel Norman
One News Colmar Brunton22 Sep 201342 12 4
Herald-DigiPoll17–23 Sep 201355.8 16.8 6.2 3.7
One News Colmar Brunton19–23 Oct 201343 12 4
Herald on Sunday/Key Research[160] 5–9 Dec 201345 18
Herald-DigiPoll9–17 Dec 201361.9 16.5 7.3 3.4
3 News Reid Research[161] 23–29 Jan 201439.0 10.8 5.9
Fairfax Media-Ipsos8–10 Feb 201451.2 18.2
One News Colmar Brunton15–19 Feb 201442 8 4
Herald-DigiPoll6–16 Mar 201466.5 11.1 6.5 4.5
3 News Reid Research18–26 Mar 201442.6 9 6.9
One News Colmar Brunton22–26 Mar 201442 8 4
Fairfax Media-Ipsos10–12 May 201448.6 13.4 3.4 1.8
3 News Reid Research15–21 May 201443.1 9.8 7.8
One News Colmar Brunton17–21 May 201443 10
Herald-DigiPoll6–16 Jun 201465.9 12.7 6.2 2.5
Fairfax Media-Ipsos14–17 Jun 201451.4 11.1 2.6 2.7
Fairfax Media-Ipsos17 Jul 201458.2 14.2 2.2 2.1
Herald-DigiPoll21–27 Aug 201467.8 11.6 8.2 3.8
Herald-DigiPoll4–10 Sep 201461.6 17.9 7.8 3.3

Electorate polling

The leftmost party columns are the parties, and their sitting Members of Parliament, that held the seats as a result of the 2011 election.

Epsom

PollDate [162] <-- The order for electorate polling is by incumbency and last election result. For the Epsom Electorate this is ACT, National, Labour, Green, Conservative, Mana. -->ACTDavid SeymourNationalPaul GoldsmithLabourMichael WoodGreenJulie Anne GenterConservativeChristine RankinManaPatrick O'DeaIndependentGrace
Haden
Colmar Brunton[163] [164] 10 August 201432 44 10 9 4 0.8 0.3
45 31 9 10 4 0.8 0.1

Waiariki

See also

Notes and References

  1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. Web site: Official Count Results – Overall Status . Electoral Commission . 10 December 2011 . 11 December 2011.
  3. Web site: LITTLE CHANGE IN NEW ZEALAND MAJOR PARTY SUPPORT SINCE NOVEMBER ELECTION . Roy Morgan Research . 19 January 2012 . 21 January 2012.
  4. Web site: STRONG SUPPORT FOR KEY'S NATIONAL PARTY EARLY IN FEBRUARY . Roy Morgan Research . 2 February 2012 . 3 February 2012.
  5. Web site: NEW ZEALAND: NATIONAL (45.5%) MAINTAIN STRONG LEAD OVER LABOUR (31%) . Roy Morgan Research . 21 February 2012 . 22 February 2012.
  6. Web site: Poll shows declining faith in John Key . 3 News . 19 February 2012 . 19 February 2012.
  7. Web site: National (45.5%) maintain big lead, but Labour (31.5%) improves for fourth straight Morgan Poll . Roy Morgan Research . 2 March 2012 . 3 March 2012.
  8. Web site: National (48.5%) increase big lead over Labour (30%); Biggest lead for Key Government since election . Roy Morgan Research . 16 March 2012 . 16 March 2012.
  9. News: Nick Smith bows out as minister . Amelia . Romanos . The New Zealand Herald. 21 March 2012 . 24 March 2012.
  10. News: National's popularity undented in new poll . Television New Zealand . 1 April 2012 . 1 April 2012.
  11. Web site: National (44%) lead over Labour tumbles (30.5%); Greens (17%) highest recorded . Roy Morgan Research . 5 April 2012 . 6 April 2012.
  12. Web site: National (49.5%) lead jumps over Labour (26.5%); Greens (12.5%) tumble from highest recorded . Roy Morgan Research . 5 April 2012 . 6 April 2012.
  13. Web site: Political research poll: National remains strong . Duncan . Garner . 3 News . 22 April 2012 . 22 April 2012.
  14. Web site: Labour makes big leap in poll . Audrey . Young . The Hew Zealand Herald. 1 May 2012 . 1 May 2012.
  15. Web site: National (47%) lead over Labour (28.5%) reduced as ACT NZ leader John Banks faces pressure to resign . Roy Morgan Research . 7 May 2012 . 7 May 2012.
  16. Web site: National (44.5%) lead over Labour (30%) down again; Labour, Greens & NZ First with majority of vote (50.5%) . Roy Morgan Research . 18 May 2012 . 18 May 2012.
  17. News: 'Zero' 2012 Budget aims for surplus . The New Zealand Herald. 24 May 2012 . 24 May 2012.
  18. News: Budget 2012: English's nickel and dime Budget . Paloma . Migone . Danya . Levy . Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz) . 24 May 2012 . 24 May 2012.
  19. Web site: National (44%) lead over Labour (30.5%) dips slightly. Down for fourth consecutive week as Bill English delivers Budget . Roy Morgan Research . 30 May 2012 . 30 May 2012.
  20. News: National's popularity slides in latest poll . Television New Zealand . 4 June 2012 . 4 June 2012.
  21. Web site: National (46%) lead over Labour (31%) up after Bill English delivers the 2012 New Zealand Budget . Roy Morgan Research . 14 June 2012 . 15 June 2012.
  22. Web site: Poll: National losing its grip . Duncan . Garner . 3 News . 10 June 2012 . 10 June 2012.
  23. Web site: National (47.5%, up 1.5%) strengthens lead, but Labour (32%, up 1%) at highest since 2011 election . Roy Morgan Research . 27 June 2012 . 18 June 2012.
  24. News: Govt and Opposition neck and neck, says latest survey . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald. 2 July 2012 . 3 July 2012.
  25. News: Asset sales bill passes by one vote . Television New Zealand . 26 June 2012 . 26 June 2012.
  26. News: Partial asset sale law passed by 1 vote. John . Hartevelt . Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz) . 26 June 2012 . 26 June 2012.
  27. Web site: National (45.5%, down 2%) lead lessens; Labour (32.5%, up 0.5%) at highest since 2011 election . Roy Morgan Research . 13 July 2012 . 15 July 2012.
  28. Web site: National (47.5%, up 2%) increases lead over Labour (30%, down 2.5%) . Roy Morgan Research . 25 July 2012 . 27 July 2012.
  29. News: 'Polarising' PM Losing Gloss . Tracey . Watkins . Kate . Chapman . Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz) . 29 July 2012 . 29 July 2012.
  30. News: National edges up in new poll. Television New Zealand . 5 August 2012 . 5 August 2012.
  31. Web site: National up, Labour down in latest poll . Duncan . Garner . 3 News . 5 August 2012 . 5 August 2012.
  32. Web site: National (44%, down 3.5%) lead over Labour (32%, up 2%) lowest since November 2008 . Roy Morgan Research . 10 August 2012 . 10 August 2012.
  33. Web site: National (44.5%) maintains strong lead over Labour (32%) . Roy Morgan Research . 30 August 2012 . 30 August 2012.
  34. News: Gay marriage bill passes first step . Isaac . Davison . The New Zealand Herald. 30 August 2012 . 15 September 2012.
  35. News: Conservative Party lifted by gay issue . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald. 11 September 2012 . 11 September 2012.
  36. Web site: National (46.5%) increases strong lead over Labour (31%) . Roy Morgan Research . 13 September 2012 . 15 September 2012.
  37. News: Labour makes gains on National – poll . Television New Zealand . 23 September 2012 . 23 September 2012.
  38. Web site: National (43.5%) lead over Labour (33%) reduces; government confidence falls to 110 (lowest since election of John Key) . Roy Morgan Research . 26 September 2012 . 27 September 2012.
  39. Web site: National (41.5%) lead over Labour (33.5%) reduces again; Labour/Greens/NZ First would win an election held now . Roy Morgan Research . 10 October 2012 . 11 October 2012.
  40. Web site: Poll: National-Labour gap closing . Duncan . Garner . 3 News . 14 October 2012 . 14 October 2012.
  41. Web site: National (43.5%) with strong lead over Labour (29%), but Labour/Greens/New Zealand First still likely to win election . Roy Morgan Research . 26 October 2012 . 30 October 2012.
  42. News: National support holds strong as Labour slips in poll . Television New Zealand . 4 November 2012 . 4 November 2012.
  43. Web site: National (45.5%) retains strong lead over Labour (32.5%) but election would be too close to call . Roy Morgan Research . 15 November 2012 . 16 November 2012.
  44. Web site: National (45%) retains strong lead over Labour (31.5%), however government coalition would lose close election . Roy Morgan Research . 28 November 2012 . 28 November 2012.
  45. News: Poll boost for Labour and David Shearer . Television New Zealand . 2 December 2012 . 2 December 2012.
  46. Web site: Poll shows preferred change of Govt . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 2 December 2012 . 2 December 2012.
  47. News: Parties buoyant despite tough year . Tracey . Watkins . Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz) . 8 December 2012 . 8 December 2012.
  48. Web site: National (45.5%) vote up. Strong lead over Labour (33.5%), however election would be too close to call . Roy Morgan Research . 12 December 2012 . 14 December 2012.
  49. Web site: National (46%) holds strong lead over Labour (31.5%), however election would be too close to call . Roy Morgan Research . 18 January 2013 . 18 January 2013.
  50. Web site: National (46%) holds strong lead over Labour (31.5%), however election would be too close to call . Roy Morgan Research . 31 January 2013 . 1 February 2013.
  51. Web site: National (44%) lead down over Labour (34.5%); Labour, greens with minor parties would win election . Roy Morgan Research . 13 February 2013 . 15 February 2013.
  52. Web site: Previous One News Colmar Brunton Poll Results . Colmar Brunton . 29 October 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130926095317/http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/2010-poll-results . 26 September 2013 . 7 November 2019.
  53. News: National bounces up in poll . Television New Zealand . 17 February 2013 . 20 February 2013.
  54. News: National no longer a sure winner – poll . Tracey . Watkins . Andrea . Vance . Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz) . 20 February 2013 . 20 February 2013.
  55. Web site: National bounces back in poll . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 24 February 2013 . 24 February 2013.
  56. Web site: National (47.5%) has huge lead over Labour (30.5%); biggest since July 2012 & would win election . Roy Morgan Research . 28 February 2013 . 20 March 2013.
  57. Web site: National falls 4% to 43.5%; Labour gains 2% to 32.5%; Labour, Greens with minor parties would win election . Roy Morgan Research . 18 March 2013 . 20 March 2013.
  58. News: Labour rises at expense of allies . Claire . Trevett . The New Zealand Herald . A5 . 21 March 2013 . 22 March 2013.
  59. Web site: National virtually unchanged (up 0.5% to 44%); Labour gains 2% to 34.5%; An election now would be too close to call . Roy Morgan Research . 2 April 2013 . 3 April 2013.
  60. Web site: National Party Down 3.5% to 40.5%; Labour gains 1% to 35.5%; Labour with minor party support would win an election if held now . Roy Morgan Research . 18 April 2013 . 19 April 2013.
  61. News: Marriage equality bill passes third reading . Kate . Chapman . Fairfax NZ News . 18 April 2013 . 19 April 2013.
  62. News: Labour, Greens make power promise . Adam . Bennett . Audrey . Young . The NZ Herald. 18 April 2013 . 20 April 2013.
  63. Web site: Key-high-in-polls-despite-GCSB-drama . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 21 April 2013 . 21 April 2013.
  64. Web site: Previous One News Colmar Brunton Poll Results . Colmar Brunton . 27 May 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120504061340/http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/one-news-colmar-brunton/2010-poll-results . 4 May 2012 . 7 November 2019.
  65. News: National's popularity slips to seven-year low . Television New Zealand . 17 April 2013 . 20 April 2013.
  66. Web site: National Party rebounds 6% to 46.5%; Labour down 4% to 31.5% As New Zealand passes laws to legalise same-sex marriage . Roy Morgan Research . 2 May 2013 . 17 May 2013.
  67. Web site: National Party 44% (down 2.5%) now dead-level with Labour/ Greens 44% (up 1.5%) . Roy Morgan Research . 15 May 2013 . 17 May 2013.
  68. News: National could rule alone, poll shows . Television New Zealand . 27 May 2013 . 27 May 2013.
  69. Web site: Poll-Labour-Greens-close-gap-on-National . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 27 May 2013 . 27 May 2013.
  70. News: National leaving Labour in its wake . Vernon . Small . Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz) . 29 May 2013 . 30 May 2013.
  71. Web site: Electors unimpressed with Finance Minister Bill English's Fifth Budget as National Party 41% (down 3%) now well behind Labour/ Greens 47% (up 3%) . Roy Morgan Research . 30 May 2013 . 30 May 2013.
  72. Web site: Mighty River Power Limited (NS) Ordinary Shares (MRP) . NZX . 24 June 2013.
  73. Web site: National Party 44% (up 3%) only slightly behind Labour/ Greens 44.5% (down 2.5%) Support for United Future drops to 0% as Peter Dunne fights to re-register party . Roy Morgan Research . 20 June 2013 . 21 June 2013.
  74. News: Poll shock: Labour, Shearer take dive as Nats roll on . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald . A5 . 26 June 2013 . 26 June 2013.
  75. News: Young . Audrey . Greens ditch quantitative easing policy . 21 June 2013 . . 19 June 2013.
  76. Web site: National Party 46.5% (up 2.5%) now lead Labour/ Greens 44.5% (unchanged) but Maori Party Leader Pita Sharples announces resignation after Maori Party finishes third in by-election for Maori seat Ikaroa-Rawhiti . Roy Morgan Research . 2 July 2013 . 4 July 2013.
  77. Web site: National Party 47% (up 0.5%) now lead Labour/ Greens 42.5% (down 2%) Biggest lead since late February . Roy Morgan Research . 18 July 2013 . 18 July 2013.
  78. Web site: Poll shows Labour drop again . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 21 July 2013 . 22 July 2013.
  79. Web site: National Party 51% (up 4%) now lead Labour/ Greens 39% (down 3.5%) Biggest lead since 2011 New Zealand Election . Roy Morgan Research . 31 July 2013 . 4 August 2013.
  80. News: Centre-left gains in latest poll, Greens surge . Television New Zealand . 4 August 2013 . 4 August 2013.
  81. Web site: Labour/ Greens 48% (up 9%) surge ahead of National Party 44% (down 7%) as Parliament debates contentious GCSB 'Spying' Bill . Roy Morgan Research . 20 August 2013 . 20 August 2013.
  82. News: Bold policy fails to grab new support for Labour . Tracy . Watkins . Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz) . 21 August 2013 . 21 August 2013.
  83. Web site: Labour/ Greens 45.5% (down 2.5%) just ahead of National 44% (unchanged) as Labour set to elect new Leader in mid-September . Roy Morgan Research . 30 August 2013 . 30 August 2013.
  84. Web site: Labour/ Greens 47.5% (up 2%) now well ahead of Nationals 41% (down 3%) before Labour elects new Leader on Sunday September 15 . Roy Morgan Research . 13 September 2013 . 13 September 2013.
  85. News: David Cunliffe debuts strongly in preferred PM stakes . Television New Zealand . 22 September 2013 . 23 September 2013.
  86. News: Labour rockets in poll . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald . 25 September 2013 . 25 September 2013.
  87. Web site: Labour (37%, up 4.5%) receives significant boost after David Cunliffe elected as new Labour Leader – Highest since October 2008 . Roy Morgan Research . 2 October 2013 . 2 October 2013.
  88. Web site: A Labour/ Greens Alliance (49.5%, up 1%) would easily win election over National Party (41.5%, down 0.5%) . Roy Morgan Research . 17 October 2013 . 17 October 2013.
  89. News: Poll a major blow to Labour . Vernon . Small . Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz) . 28 October 2013 . 28 October 2013.
  90. News: Left strong, but Labour flat in latest poll . Television New Zealand . 28 October 2013 . 28 October 2013.
  91. Web site: A Labour/ Greens Alliance (46.5%, down 3%) likely to win election with support of NZ First (4.5%) over National Party (42%, up 0.5%) . Roy Morgan Research . 30 October 2013 . 2 November 2013.
  92. Web site: Labour up, but not enough for power – Poll . Simon . Wong . 3 News . 10 November 2013 . 10 November 2013.
  93. News: National down, Conservatives up: new poll. https://web.archive.org/web/20131110081557/http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=176948&fm=newsmain%2Cnrhl . 10 November 2013 . 10 November 2013. NZN. 10 November 2013.
  94. Web site: National Party (45.5%) now ahead of Labour/ Greens (44.5%) as Labour's new policy on female representation drives men to support National and away from Labour . Roy Morgan Research . 14 November 2013 . 14 November 2013.
  95. Web site: Parties neck-and-neck in New Zealand 12 months before NZ Election: National Party (44.5%) just behind Labour/ Greens (45%) . Roy Morgan Research . 27 November 2013 . 27 November 2013.
  96. Web site: National Party (45%) level with Labour/ Greens (45%) to end 2013 . Roy Morgan Research . 11 December 2013 . 11 December 2013.
  97. News: Maori Party holds key to government . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald . 20 December 2013 . 20 December 2013.
  98. Web site: Labour/ Greens (46%) start election year with edge over National (43.5%) as Kim Dotcom set to launch new 'Internet Party' to contest elections . Roy Morgan Research . 22 January 2014 . 23 January 2014.
  99. Web site: Reid Research poll shows Peters as kingmaker . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 2 February 2014 . 2 February 2014.
  100. Web site: National (47%) regains lead from Labour/ Greens (44%). Kim Dotcom faces uphill battle to win a seat as his new Internet Party has only 0.5% support . Roy Morgan Research . 6 February 2014 . 23 February 2014.
  101. Web site: National on wave of optimism – poll . Vernon . Small . Fairfax NZ News . 14 February 2014 . 14 February 2014.
  102. Web site: National (48%) increases lead over Labour/ Greens (42%) – biggest lead for National since July 2013 . Roy Morgan Research . 20 February 2014 . 23 February 2014.
  103. News: Surge in support for National – poll . Television New Zealand . 23 February 2014 . 23 February 2014.
  104. News: National, Greens up, Labour at new low . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald . 18 March 2014 . 18 March 2014.
  105. Web site: New Zealand Voting Intention . Roy Morgan Research . 21 March 2014 . 21 March 2014.
  106. News: NZ First the big winner in poll . Television New Zealand . 30 March 2014 . 30 March 2014.
  107. Web site: Poll: National up, despite Oravida saga . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 30 March 2014 . 31 March 2014.
  108. Web site: Labour/ Greens (45%) regain lead over National (43%) for first time since January while Mana Party & Internet Party discuss alliance . Roy Morgan Research . 3 April 2014 . 3 April 2014.
  109. Web site: National (48.5%) with biggest lead over Labour/ Greens (40%) since July 2013 as New Zealanders celebrate the Royal visit of Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge . Roy Morgan Research . 17 April 2014 . 24 April 2014.
  110. News: Labour Party MP Shane Jones steps down . The Northern Advocate . 23 April 2014 . 24 April 2014.
  111. Web site: Labour/ Greens (45.5%) regain lead over National (42.5%) as scandal engulfs the National Party – Maurice Williamson resigns his portfolios and while Justice Minister Judith Collins takes a few days leave . Roy Morgan Research . 7 May 2014 . 7 May 2014.
  112. Web site: National has no need to pull rabbits out of hat . Tracy . Watkins . Fairfax NZ News . 13 May 2014 . 14 May 2014.
  113. Web site: National (45.5%) regains lead over Labour/ Greens (44%) after Finance Minister Bill English delivers sixth Budget and projects a Budget surplus this year of $372 million – the first NZ Budget surplus since 2008. . Roy Morgan Research . 22 May 2014 . 23 May 2014.
  114. News: Poll shows National surviving a tough few weeks . Television New Zealand . 25 May 2014 . 25 May 2014.
  115. Web site: National's family policies get support in poll . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 25 May 2014 . 25 May 2014.
  116. Web site: National (52.5%) surges to election winning lead while Labour/ Greens (38%) slump to lowest since last New Zealand Election as Greens propose a Carbon Tax to replace the Emissions Trading Scheme . Roy Morgan Research . 5 June 2014 . 5 June 2014.
  117. News: Adam . Bennett . 27 May 2014 . Mana confirms election year deal with Internet Party . The New Zealand Herald. 29 June 2014.
  118. News: John Banks guilty – may lose seat in Parliament . Radio New Zealand . 5 June 2014 . 5 June 2014.
  119. Web site: National (49.5%) holds clear election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (40%) as former National Party Cabinet Minister, and recent sole Act NZ MP John Banks resigns from Parliament . Roy Morgan Research . 19 June 2014 . 19 June 2014.
  120. News: National flies high as new party nibbles into Greens . Claire . Trevett . The New Zealand Herald . 17 June 2014 . 17 June 2014.
  121. Web site: Polls show Labours support plummeting . Tracy . Watkins . Fairfax NZ News . 19 June 2014 . 19 June 2014.
  122. News: David Cunliffe wrote letter supporting Liu's residency bid . . 18 June 2014 . 18 June 2014.
  123. Web site: Labour's support dips, Key gets highest rating since 2011 . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 26 June 2014 . 29 June 2014.
  124. News: Labour drops to two-year popularity low – poll . Television New Zealand . 29 June 2014 . 30 June 2014.
  125. Web site: National (48%) down but still holds clear election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (40%) as Prime Minister John Key announces $212 million 'roading and construction' package for regional New Zealand . Roy Morgan Research . 2 July 2014 . 3 July 2014.
  126. Web site: National (51%) increases election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (38.5%) as Prime Minister John Key heads off for 10 days holiday in Hawaii and Labour's increased spending on education fails to convince the electors . Roy Morgan Research . 16 July 2014 . 18 July 2014.
  127. Web site: Latest poll more bad news for Labour . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 20 July 2014 . 21 July 2014.
  128. Web site: Labour's poll woe deepens . Vernon . Small . Tracy . Watkins . Fairfax NZ News . 17 July 2014 . 18 July 2014.
  129. News: Labour slumps to 15-year low . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald . 20 July 2014 . 21 July 2014.
  130. Web site: More poll woes for Labour as National rides high . Television New Zealand . 27 July 2014 . 27 July 2014.
  131. Web site: National (46%) lead over Labour/ Greens (42%) cut significantly as Key rules out deal with Conservative Party but says National would consider a deal with NZ First (5%) . Roy Morgan Research . 31 July 2014 . 31 July 2014.
  132. Web site: Labour at new low poll . Vernon . Small . Tracy . Watkins . Fairfax NZ News . 15 August 2014 . 15 August 2014.
  133. Web site: Dirty start to campaign hurts Labour, National – poll . Television New Zealand . 17 August 2014 . 17 August 2014.
  134. Web site: New political poll a reality check for National . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 17 August 2014 . 17 August 2014.
  135. News: John Armstong: Hager's claims light a fuse under the State of Key . 14 August 2014 . 15 August 2014.
  136. Web site: National (48%) holds its lead over Labour/ Greens (39%) as 'Dirty Politics' revelations provide a new challenge for PM John Key's leadership. NZ First surge to 6.5% – highest support since September 2013 . Roy Morgan Research . 20 July 2014 . 20 July 2014.
  137. News: Greens spring in polls as National takes hit . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald . 22 August 2014 . 22 August 2014.
  138. Web site: Latest political poll big blow for John Key . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 27 August 2014 . 27 August 2014.
  139. News: Digipoll: Minor parties surge as Labour sinks lower . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald . 28 August 2014 . 28 August 2014.
  140. Web site: Nats riding high, Key sliding down . Tracy . Watkins . Hamish . Rutherford . Fairfax NZ News . 29 August 2014 . 29 August 2014.
  141. Web site: National slips in poll before latest revelations . Television New Zealand . 31 August 2014 . 31 August 2014.
  142. News: Judith Collins resigns as Minister from Cabinet . 30 August 2014 . 30 August 2014.
  143. Web site: 'Dirty Politics' muddies the water for major parties in New Zealand . Roy Morgan Research . 3 September 2014 . 3 September 2014.
  144. Web site: Key could need Maori Party post-election . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 3 September 2014 . 3 September 2014.
  145. News: Election 2014: Political dirt doesn't stick to Nats in new Herald-Digipoll . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald . 5 September 2014 . 5 September 2014.
  146. Web site: National soars without Collins – poll . Vernon . Small . Fairfax NZ News . 5 September 2014 . 5 September 2014.
  147. Web site: National unscathed by Dirty Politics – poll . Television New Zealand . 5 September 2014 . 5 September 2014.
  148. News: Conservatives on brink of entering Parliament . https://web.archive.org/web/20140911002306/http://www.3news.co.nz/politics/conservatives-on-brink-of-entering-parliament-2014091018 . 11 September 2014 . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 10 September 2014 . 10 September 2014.
  149. News: Winston on the rise as signs point to tighter race . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald . 12 September 2014 . 12 September 2014.
  150. Web site: Greens eye radical change days before election . Television New Zealand . 11 September 2014 . 11 September 2014.
  151. News: Don't split vote, National warns supporters . Tracy . Watkins . Hamish . Rutherford . Fairfax NZ News . 14 September 2014 . 14 September 2014.
  152. Web site: John Key set to win narrow election victory on Saturday as Labour/Greens slump puts Winston Peters in powerful position as NZ First surge to 8% . Roy Morgan Research . 17 September 2014 . 17 September 2014.
  153. Graphs above include polls up to and including this one.
  154. Web site: Poll: Winston holds balance of power . Patrick . Gower . 3 News . 17 September 2014 . 17 September 2014.
  155. News: Moment of Truth gifts Team Key a late bounce in polls . Audrey . Young . The New Zealand Herald . 19 September 2014 . 19 September 2014.
  156. Web site: National, Labour could both muster a majority – poll . Television New Zealand . 18 September 2014 . 18 September 2014.
  157. News: Tight race ahead for Key and Cunliffe . Tracy . Watkins . Fairfax NZ News . 19 September 2014 . 19 September 2014.
  158. Web site: Election Results – Overall Status . Electoral Commission . 4 October 2014 . 5 October 2014.
  159. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  160. Web site: Labour gaining votes as National 'ignore' referendum results . Herald on Sunday . 15 December 2013 . 15 December 2013. Kirsty . Wynn.
  161. Web site: TV3 Poll Results. www.reidresearch.co.nz.
  162. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  163. Web site: TVNZ Q+A Colmar Brunton poll in Epsom.
  164. This poll was taken twice, before and after respondents were informed that John Key was encouraging National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to the ACT Party candidate.
  165. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  166. Web site: Tight race in Tamaki Makaurau electorate.
  167. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  168. Web site: Te Tai Tokerau poll results highlight voter concerns.
  169. Web site: Te Tai Tokerau race down to the wire.
  170. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  171. Web site: Tirikatene looks secure for Te Tai Tonga seat.
  172. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  173. Web site: Maori Party co-leader well ahead in Waiariki electorate.

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