Opinion polling for the 2011 New Zealand general election explained

Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 49th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2011 election by various organisations. The main four are Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that have consistently polled on average above the 5.0% threshold. The second graph shows the parties polling over 1% which do not consistently poll above the 5.0% threshold.

Individual polls

PollDate[1] <-- the order is National - Labour - Green - ACT - Māori - Progressive - United Future - NZF - Mana -->NationalLabourGreenACTMāoriProgUnited
Future		NZ FirstManaCon
2008 election result 8 Nov 2008 44.93 33.99 6.72 3.65 2.39 0.91 0.87 4.07 N/A [2]
11 Nov 2008 – Phil Goff replaces Helen Clark as leader of Labour Party.
19 Nov 2008 – National Party leader John Key is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.
Roy Morgan Research[3] 17–30 Nov 2008 44.0 32.5 9.5 4.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 3.5
Roy Morgan Research[4] 1–14 Dec 2008 47.0 31.5 9.5 4.0 2.0 0.5 1.0 3.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 2–18 Jan 2009 48.0 33.0 8.0 3.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[6] 19 Jan – 1 Feb 2009 48.0 31.0 9.0 3.5 3.5 0.5 1.0 3.0
Roy Morgan Research2–15 Feb 200948.5328.52.53.50.511.5
One News Colmar Brunton[7] 14–19 Feb 2009 57.0 31.0 7.0 2.0 2.0 1.0
3 News Reid Research[8] 18 Feb 200960.0 27.0 7.0 1.2 2.1 0.2 1.6
Roy Morgan Research16 Feb – 1 Mar 200956268.51.53.50.5<0.52.5
Roy Morgan Research2–15 Mar 200954.52982.520.50.52
One News (New Zealand)One News Colmar Brunton 28 Mar – 1 Apr 2009 56.0 28.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 1.0
Roy Morgan Research23 Mar – 5 Apr 200950.5289.543.51<0.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton[9] 5 Apr 200957.031.07.02.02.0
Roy Morgan Research6–19 Apr 20095032.58.52.53.50.5<0.52
Roy Morgan Research20 Apr – 3 May 20095530.5722<0.50.52
Roy Morgan Research[10] 4–17 May 2009 52.0 31.5 9.5 2.0 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.0
Roy Morgan Research 18–31 May 200952.0 31.0 8.5 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 1.
28 May 2009 2009 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
30 May 2009 – Metiria Turei replaces Jeanette Fitzsimons as female co-leader of the Green Party.
13 Jun 2009 – Mount Albert by-election: David Shearer retains the seat for Labour.
Roy Morgan Research 1–14 Jun 200952.0 33.0 7.5 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.0
Roy Morgan Research22 Jun – 5 Jul 20095431.58130.50.51
Roy Morgan Research6–19 Jul 200952301013.50.5<0.52
One News Colmar Brunton25–29 Jul 20095631713.1
Roy Morgan Research20 Jul – 2 Aug 200953.53472.51.50.5<0.51
Roy Morgan Research3–16 Aug 200953.532.58.5120.5<0.52
21 Aug 2009 – The citizens-initiated corporal punishment referendum is held, with voters responding 87.4% "No" to the question "Should a smack as part of good parental correction be a criminal offence in New Zealand?"
Roy Morgan Research17–30 Aug 200956.529.581.51.50.50.51.5
Roy Morgan Research[11] 31 Aug – 13 Sep 200951.5337.522.50.50.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton[12] 19–24 Sep 200954334332
Roy Morgan Research21 Sep – 4 Oct 200957.5286.51.52.51<0.52
3 News Reid Research[13] 18 Oct 200959.927.26.91.72.41.0
Roy Morgan Research5–18 Oct 200953307.52.530.50.52.5
Roy Morgan Research19 Oct – 1 Nov 200955.5297.513.50.50.51.5
Roy Morgan Research2–15 Nov 200951.5336.52.521<0.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton[14] [15] 21–25 Nov 200953317231
Roy Morgan Research16–29 Nov 200953.530.571.53.5<0.5<0.52.5
26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech.
3 News Reid Research[16] 13 Dec 200955.230.87.81.81.70.11.5
Roy Morgan Research30 Nov – 13 Dec 20095427.59.51.51.50.5<0.54
Roy Morgan Research4–17 Jan 20105330822.50.50.52.5
Roy Morgan Research18–31 Jan 201052326230.50.53.5
Herald-DigiPoll[17] 29 Jan – 10 Feb 201056344.6<12.8<1<11.7
Roy Morgan Research1–14 Feb 2010523381.52.50.5<0.52
3 News Reid Research[18] 16 Feb 201056.329.67.31.62.40.20.21.5
One News Colmar Brunton[19] 14–17 Feb 201054345222
Roy Morgan Research15–28 Feb 201053.531.581.52.5<0.50.52
Roy Morgan Research1–14 Mar 201051.533.56.52.5210.52
Roy Morgan Research[20] [21] 22 Mar – 4 Apr 201049337.5230.513
One News Colmar Brunton[22] 10–14 Apr 20105433522
3 News Reid Research[23] 25 Apr 201052.1 33.8 8.2 1.6 1.9 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[24] 5–18 Apr 201049.5347.5140.50.52.5
Roy Morgan Research[25] 3–16 May 201048.533.592.52.50.50.53
20 May 2010 2010 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
Roy Morgan Research17–30 May 201052.5309.513.50.50.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton[26] [27] 30 May 201049.033.07.01.63.6
Roy Morgan Research31 May – 13 Jun 201050.5339.513<0.511.5
Roy Morgan Research21 Jun – 4 Jul 201053298.523<0.50.53
Roy Morgan Research[28] 5–18 Jul 20104931.59230.50.54.5
Roy Morgan Research19 Jul – 1 Aug 20105133.56.523.50.50.52
One News Colmar Brunton[29] 8 Aug 201049.035.07.02.72.32.3
3 News Reid Research[30] [31] 8 Aug 201054.530.68.52.21.50.21.5
Roy Morgan Research[32] 2–15 Aug 201050 33.5 7.5 1.5 3 0.5 3.5
17 Aug 2010 – Chris Carter is removed from the Labour caucus and becomes an independent MP. Labour is reduced to 42 seats but the Opposition remains at 53 seats.
Roy Morgan Research16–29 Aug 201049.5 32.5 8.5 1 3 1 3.5
4 Sep 2010 – A 7.1-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury.
Roy Morgan Research30 Aug – 12 Sep 201048.5 34 8 2 1.5 0.5 1 4.5
Roy Morgan Research20 Sep – 3 Oct 201049.5 36.5 8 0.5 2.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[33] 26 Sep 201054 32 8 1.1 2.3 2.4
Roy Morgan Research[34] 4–17 Oct 201052.5 33 8.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 2.5
3 News Reid Research[35] 11 Oct 201053.8 32.6 7.6 0.9 2.4 0.3 1.2
Roy Morgan Research[36] 18–31 Oct 201050.5 33 8.5 1.5 3 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research1–14 Nov 201050 32.5 9 1 2.5 0.5 3
20 Nov 2010 – Mana by-election: Kris Faafoi retains the seat for Labour, but with a significantly reduced majority.
Roy Morgan Research15–28 Nov 201051 33 7 1 3 0.5 0.5 3
Roy Morgan Research29 Nov – 12 Dec 201048.5 35 7 1.5 2.5 0.5 1 3
3 News Reid Research[37] 13 Dec 201055.5 31.2 7.3 1.3 1.7 0.1 1.9
One News Colmar Brunton[38] 19 Dec 201055 33 4.5 0.9 2.2 3.1
Herald-DigiPoll[39] 30 Dec 201052.4 37.2 5.3 0.9 1.2 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[40] 4–16 Jan 201155 29 7 1.5 2.5 0.5 4.5
26 Jan 2011 – John Key announces policy of partial privatisation of some state-owned assets.
Roy Morgan Research[41] 17–30 Jan 201149 34.5 6.5 1 3 5.5
2 February 2011 – John Key announces the election will be held on 26 November 2011.
Roy Morgan Research31 Jan – 13 Feb 201152.5 33.5 8.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[42] 20 Feb 201151 33 8 1.3 2.3 3.6
3 News Reid Research[43] 20 Feb 201154.6 30.9 8.2 0.6 2.3 3.3
Roy Morgan Research14–27 Feb 201149 35 8 1.5 3 3
22 Feb 2011 – A 6.3-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury, with 181 casualties.
23 Feb 2011 – Hone Harawira defects from Maori Party to become an independent MP, and later forming the Mana Party. Government majority reduced from 16 to 14 seats; Maori Party reduced to four seats.
5 Mar 2011 – Botany by-election: Jami-Lee Ross retains the seat for National, but with a reduced majority.
Roy Morgan Research28 Feb – 13 Mar 201152.5 32.5 8 0.5 1.5 0.5 4
Roy Morgan Research[44] 21 Mar – 3 Apr 201151 31.5 8 2 1.5 0.5 5
One News Colmar Brunton[45] 10 Apr 201154 34 6 1.1 1.4 2.7
3 News Reid Research[46] 17 Apr 201157.5 27.1 7.7 1.7 2.5 0.2 2.8
Roy Morgan Research[47] 4–17 Apr 201151 32 8 1 3.5 0.5 0.5 3
30 Apr 2011 – Don Brash replaces Rodney Hide as leader of the ACT Party.
Roy Morgan Research18 Apr – 1 May 201152.5 31 7.5 1 2 0.5 0.5 4.5
Roy Morgan Research2–15 May 201153 28 10 2 2 0.5 0.5 3
19 May 2011 2011 New Zealand budget is presented to Parliament.
Herald-DigiPoll[48] 19–25 May 201154.4 33.7 5.5 1.7 1.5 0 0 2.7
One News Colmar Brunton[49] 29 May 201152 34 6 2.5 1.4 1.6 0.9
3 News Reid Research[50] 29 May 201153.0 32.8 6.5 2.2 1.6 0.2 2.4 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[51] 16–29 May 201149 36 6.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[52] 30 May – 12 Jun 201153 30 7 3 3 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research13–26 Jun 201154 30.5 5.5 2.5 3 0.5 3.5
25 Jun 2011 – Te Tai Tokerau by-election: Hone Harawira is re-elected under the Mana Party.
Herald-DigiPoll[53] 27 Jun 201151.2 36.1 6.6 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[54] 27 Jun – 10 Jul 201149 33.5 7.5 3 2.5 0.5 3
3 News Reid Research[55] 10 Jul 201155.1 29.9 9.1 1.7 0.8 0.0 2.2 0.7
14 Jul 2011 – Labour releases their proposed tax package, including the introduction of a capital gains tax.[56]
One News Colmar Brunton[57] 17 Jul 201153 27 10 3.1 3 0.3 2.4 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[58] 11–24 Jul 201152 31.5 7.5 2 3 0.5 2.5 0.5
Fairfax Media–Research International [59] 21–25 Jul 201156 29 6.4 2.2 1.2 0.2 2.0 0.2
Herald-DigiPoll[60] 30 Jul 201152.3 33.1 8.3 1.4 2.0 0.9 0.6
Roy Morgan Research [61] 25 Jul – 7 Aug 201151.5 32 7 2 1.5 0.5 4 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[62] 21 Aug 201156 30 6 1.7 1.4 0.5 2.3 0.9
3 News Reid Research[63] 21 Aug 201154.0 28.8 9.3 2.2 1.5 0.0 2.2 0.9
Herald-DigiPoll[64] 19–26 Aug 201152 31.5 9.8 1.2 1.8 0.1 2.4 0.2
Roy Morgan Research [65] 15 – 28 Aug 201152 29.5 9 2 1.5 0.5 3.5 1
Fairfax Media–Research International[66] 25–29 Aug 201157.1 25.7 11.0 1.1 1.6 0.1 2.2 0.6
Roy Morgan Research [67] 29 Aug – 11 Sep 201157 26 7.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 3.5 1
9 September 2011 – The 2011 Rugby World Cup opens in Auckland, with unexpected overcrowding of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone and transport delays resulting in some people missing the opening ceremony and game.
13 September 2011 – The Government takes control of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone from Auckland Council.[68]
Roy Morgan Research [69] 12 – 25 Sep 201151 30.5 11.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 1 0.5
30 Sep 2011 – Credit agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's both downgrade New Zealand's long-term credit rating from AA+ to AA.[70]
Fairfax Media–Research International[71] 28 Sep 201154 28 10 1.5 1.3 0.4 2.3 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton[72] 2 Oct 201156 29 9 1.3 1.1 0.0 1.9 0.6
3 News Reid Research[73] 2 Oct 201157.4 26.6 9.8 1.6 0.8 0.0 1.9 0.
Roy Morgan Research [74] 26 Sep – 9 Oct 201155.5 28 9.5 1.5 2 0.5 2 0.5
5 Oct 2011 – MV Rena runs aground on the Astrolabe Reef causing an oil spill in Tauranga, described as New Zealand's worst environmental disaster.
Roy Morgan Research [75] 10–23 Oct 201153.5 29.5 9.5 1 2 1 2.5 0.5
26 Oct 2011 – Writ Day: The writ of election is issued by the Chief Justice on behalf of the Governor General, instructing the Electoral Commission to conduct the election.[76] Electoral roll closes for printing with 3.01 million eligible voters.[77] Main campaigning season begins.
Herald-DigiPoll [78] 20–27 Oct 201153.5 30.3 9.5 1.5 1.2 0.1 2.8 0.1
3 News Reid Research[79] 30 Oct 201152.3 30.2 9.4 1.5 1.4 0.0 2.4 0.9
Fairfax Media–Research International[80] 27–31 Oct 201152.6 31.3 9.7 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 1.5 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll [81] 28 Oct – 2 Nov 201154.2 29.1 10.1 0.9 1.9 0.5 1.7 0.1 1.1
One News Colmar Brunton[82] 3 Nov 201156 30 9 0.9 1.3 0.1 2.2 0.3
Roy Morgan Research [83] 24 Oct – 6 Nov 201153 26 12 1 2 0 4.5 1.0
Fairfax Media–Research International[84] 3–7 Nov 201152.5 25.9 12.6 1.0 1.5 0.2 0.3 2.8 0.7
Herald-DigiPoll [85] 3–9 Nov 201149.5 28.7 12.6 1.5 0.5 0.7 3.7 0.7 1
One News Colmar Brunton[86] 10 Nov 201154 28 9 1.5 2.1 0.8 2.9 0.2 0.5
3 News Reid Research[87] 13 Nov 201153.3 29.9 10.2 0.7 1.4 0.0 2.4 1.0
11 Nov 2011 – A potentially damaging conversation between John Key and political ally John Banks is recorded without their knowledge.
Herald-DigiPoll [88] 10–16 Nov 201149.9 29.1 12.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.9 0.4 0.6
One News Colmar Brunton[89] 17 Nov 201151 26 13 1.6 1.6 0.3 2.2 1.3 1.4
3 News Reid Research[90] 17 Nov 201150.2 27.4 13.0 1.8 1.3 0.0 3.5 1.0 1.1
Roy Morgan Research [91] 7 – 18 Nov 201153 24.5 13 1.5 3 0 3 1.0
Fairfax Media–Research International[92] 17 – 21 Nov 201154.0 26.0 12.0 0.7 1.1 0.0 0.1 4.0 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll [93] 17 – 23 Nov 201150.9 28.0 11.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.2 0.3 1.3
One News Colmar Brunton[94] 24 Nov 201150 28 10 1.7 2.0 0.1 4.2 1.0 2.4
3 News Reid Research[95] 24 Nov 201150.8 26.0 13.4 1.0 1.5 0.0 3.1 1.1 1.8
Roy Morgan Research [96] 22 – 24 Nov 201149.5 23.5 14.5 1.5 1 0.5 6.5 0.5
26 Nov 2011 – Election Day: A total of 3,049,212 voters were registered to vote in the election.[97] A total of 2,257,336 votes were cast, including the 188,730 advance votes, with a turnout of 73.5%.[98]
2011 election result[99] 26 Nov 2011 47.31 27.48 11.06 1.07 1.43 – 0.60 6.59 1.08 2.65
PollDate[100] <-- the order is National - Labour - Green - ACT - Māori - Progressive - United Future - NZF - Mana - Conservative -->NationalLabourGreenACTMāoriProgUnited
Future		NZ FirstManaCon

Preferred Prime Minister

Individual polls

PollDate[101] <-- the order is Key - Clark - Goff - Peters-->John
Key		Helen
Clark		Phil
Goff		Winston
Peters
Colmar Brunton14–19 Feb 20095162
Colmar Brunton28 Mar – 1 Apr 20095161
TV ONE Colmar Brunton5 Apr 20095196
Colmar Brunton25–29 Jul 20095472
3 News-Reid Research18 Oct 200951.68.24.73.0
ONE News Colmar Brunton21–25 Nov 20095452
26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech.
3 News-Reid Research13 Dec 200949.96.18.02.1
Herald Digipoll29 Jan – 10 Feb 20105876.8
ONE News Colmar Brunton10–14 Apr 2010488
ONE News Colmar BruntonMay 2010466
ONE News Colmar Brunton8 Aug 2010459
3 News-Reid Research[102] 8 Aug 201048.72.37.43.7
ONE News Colmar Brunton26 Sep 2010528
One News-Colmar Brunton19 Dec 201049.1 6.8 4.9
3 News-Reid Research20 Feb 201149.1 6.8 4.9
ONE News Colmar Brunton20 Feb 201148 2 7 3
One News-Colmar Brunton10 Apr 201155 11 3
3 News-Reid Research17 Apr 201152.4 6.8
Herald Digipoll 27 May 201167.7 11.9
One News-Colmar Brunton29 May 201153 8
3 News-Reid Research29 May 201148.2 7.6
One News-Colmar Brunton17 Jul 201154 9
Herald Digipoll 30 Jul 201170.3 7.9 9.3 2.9
One News-Colmar Brunton21 Aug 201157 8
Herald Digipoll29 Oct 201170.6 13.7 3.5
One News-Colmar Brunton3 Nov 201156 12
Fairfax Media-Research International17–21 Nov 201151.5 12.5 3.5
PollDate[103] <-- the order is Key - Clark - Goff - Peters-->John
Key		Helen
Clark		Phil
Goff		Winston
Peters

Other polls

Epsom electorate vote

PollDate[104] <-- the order is Banks - Goldsmith - Parker - Hay-->John
Banks		Paul
Goldsmith		David
Parker		David
Hay
2008 election result8 November 200856.1 21.8 13.6 7.4
New Zealand Herald-Key Research[105] 9 October 201118.9 32.9 4.3 1
Fairfax Media Research International[106] 17 November 201129.1 45.5 14.6 7.7
One News Colmar Brunton[107] 14–17 November 201130 41 17 11
2011 general election, final result26 November 2011 44.10 37.80 10.45 6.01

Voting method referendum

Concern over validity

A new polling company, Horizon, has challenged some of the existing polls' validity as they exclude undecided voters and those who chose not to vote.[108] Horizon claim that this may be up to 30% in some polls. However, Horizon's own polling methods have been criticised for their use of a self-selected internet panel.[109] At the 2008 election only the Green Party gained a proportion of the party vote outside (below) what poll trends would suggest.

See also

Notes and References

  1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. The Mana Movement and the Conservative Party of New Zealand were both formed in 2011, and as such, did not contest the 2008 general election
  3. Web site: . 30 November 2008 . John Key elected as new Prime Minister and record number of New Zealanders say New Zealand is 'Heading in the right direction' . 9 August 2010.
  4. Web site: . 14 December 2008 . 'Honeymoon' period continues for new New Zealand Prime Minister John Key; National Party (47%) well ahead of Labour (31.5%) . 9 August 2010.
  5. Web site: . 23 January 2009 . John Key's New Zealand Government retains strong lead; National Party (48%) well ahead of Labour (33%) . 9 August 2010.
  6. Web site: . 5 February 2009 . NZ National Party-led Government (56%) well ahead of Opposition Parties (44%) . 9 August 2010.
  7. [Television New Zealand|TVNZ]
  8. Web site: . 18 February 2009 . National's honeymoon continues, according to poll . video . 9 August 2010.
  9. News: National still on honeymoon. The Dominion Post. 6 April 2009. https://web.archive.org/web/20170912201512/http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/politics/2316484/National-still-on-honeymoon. 12 September 2017. live. 29 September 2009.
  10. Web site: National Still Surpasses 50% in New Zealand . . . 24 June 2009 . 9 August 2010.
  11. News: Poll: National falls, Labour gains. 21 September 2009. 29 September 2009. The New Zealand Herald.
  12. Web site: 2009 poll results. Colmar Brunton. 9 May 2010.
  13. Web site: 3 News Reid Research poll results. 18 October 2009. 9 May 2010. 3 News.
  14. News: Poll makes grim reading for Goff and Harawira. 29 November 2009. 2 December 2009. TVNZ.
  15. TVNZ Teletext. Retrieved 2 December 2009
  16. Web site: Goff finally passes Helen Clark as preferred PM. 13 December 2009. 15 December 2009. 3 News.
  17. News: Poll records growing support for Key . . Derek . Cheng . 13 February 2010 . 14 February 2010.
  18. Web site: People more realistic about the economy – Key . 22 February 2010. 9 May 2010. 3 News.
  19. Web site: 2010 poll results. Colmar Brunton. 13 March 2010.
  20. Web site: National-led Government (55%, down 2%) lead over Opposition Parties (45%, up 2%) – Cut to lowest since February 2009. Roy Morgan Research. 9 April 2010. 10 April 2010.
  21. News: Support for National slips. The New Zealand Herald. Newstalk ZB. 10 April 2010. 10 April 2010.
  22. Web site: National continues to ride high in the polls. ONE News. Television New Zealand. 18 April 2010. 18 April 2010.
  23. Web site: Labour finding traction, Goff a little lost – poll . 3 News . 25 April 2010 . 26 April 2010.
  24. Web site: National-led Government (55%, unchanged) Retain big lead over Opposition Parties (45%, unchanged). Roy Morgan Research. 27 April 2010. 9 May 2010.
  25. Web site: National-led Government (58.5%, up 3%) further ahead of Opposition Parties (41.5%); National up 2.5% to 53%, Labour down 4% to 29% . Roy Morgan Research . 9 July 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100712053039/http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4531/ . 12 July 2010 . live . 16 July 2010.
  26. News: Support for National dips – poll. New Zealand Press Association. The New Zealand Herald. 30 May 2010. 30 May 2010.
  27. Web site: National's support dips in latest poll. ONE News. Television New Zealand. video. 30 May 2010. 30 May 2010.
  28. Web site: Roy Morgan Poll – 6 August 2010 . 6 August 2010 . 12 August 2010.
  29. Web site: Labour's support up after tough month – tvnz.co.nz . 8 August 2010 . 8 August 2010.
  30. News: Labour makes gains in polls – nzherald.co.nz . 8 August 2010 . 8 August 2010 . The New Zealand Herald.
  31. Web site: Labour still struggling, but signs of life – poll – 3news.co.nz . 8 August 2010 . 8 August 2010.
  32. Web site: Roy Morgan Poll – 16 September 2010 . 16 September 2010 . 5 October 2010.
  33. Web site: Surge in popularity for National – poll . . 26 September 2010 . 30 September 2010.
  34. Web site: Roy Morgan Poll – 25 October 2010 . 25 October 2010 . 3 November 2010.
  35. Web site: Voters weigh in on GST increase – poll – 3news.co.nz . 11 October 2010 . 13 October 2010.
  36. Web site: Roy Morgan Poll – 17 December 2010 . 17 December 2010 . 19 December 2010.
  37. Web site: 3 News Reid Research Poll – December 2010 . 3 News . 13 December 2010 . 21 February 2011.
  38. Web site: National streets ahead in final One News poll for 2010 . . 19 December 2010 . 19 December 2010.
  39. News: National's support slips but it's still out on its own . The New Zealand Herald. 30 December 2010 . 10 January 2011 . Audrey . Young.
  40. Web site: Roy Morgan Poll – 21 January 2010 . 21 January 2011 . 21 January 2011.
  41. Web site: Roy Morgan Poll – 21 February 2010 . 21 February 2011 . 2 March 2011.
  42. Web site: National's popularity falls, but no party near it – Colmar Poll . Television New Zealand . 20 February 2011 . 21 February 2011.
  43. Web site: Key still strong as preferred PM, but gap closing . 3 News . 20 February 2011 . 21 February 2011.
  44. Web site: Roy Morgan Research Poll – 8 April 2011 . 8 April 2011 . 11 April 2011.
  45. Web site: National well ahead but Labour survives scandal . Television New Zealand . 10 April 2011 . 11 April 2011.
  46. News: National climbs closer to record high in latest poll . The New Zealand Herald. 17 April 2011 . 18 April 2011 . Adam . Bennett.
  47. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT INCREASES LEAD . 23 May 2011 . 26 May 2011.
  48. News: Audrey . Young . 27 May 2011 . Goff well down in PM stakes but rating okay as Labour's leader . The New Zealand Herald . 28 May 2011.
  49. Web site: National still sitting pretty after zero Budget – Colmar Poll . Television New Zealand . 29 May 2011 . 30 May 2011.
  50. Web site: National slips a little in poll, but still going strong . 3 News . 29 May 2011 . 31 May 2011.
  51. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT LEAD DIPS SHARPLY BUT WOULD STILL WIN . 9 June 2011 . 9 June 2011.
  52. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT MAINTAINS LEAD AND WOULD WIN EASILY – 60% cf. 40% . 30 June 2011 . 1 July 2011.
  53. News: Audrey . Young . 1 July 2011 . Poll: Labour gains, but Nats would still govern alone . The New Zealand Herald . 1 July 2011.
  54. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT LEAD DOWN BUT WOULD WIN EASILY – 55% cf. 45% . 19 July 2011 . 20 July 2011.
  55. Web site: Greens on the up, National in front – poll . 3 News . 10 July 2011 . 17 July 2011.
  56. News: Adam . Bennett . 14 July 2011 . Poll: Labour unveils 'bold' tax plan . The New Zealand Herald . 15 July 2011.
  57. Web site: Labour support plummets in latest poll . Television New Zealand . 17 July 2011 . 17 July 2011.
  58. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT GAINS AND HAS WINNING LEAD 57.5% cf. 42.5% . 28 July 2011 . 5 August 2011.
  59. Web site: Labour 'not fazed' by dismal poll result . stuff.co.nz . Tracy . Watkins . 27 July 2011 . 31 August 2011.
  60. News: Audrey . Young . 30 July 2011 . Voters prefer Labour policy but not party: Poll . The New Zealand Herald . 30 July 2011.
  61. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVT. DOWN BUT HAS WINNING LEAD: 55.5% cf. 44.5% . Roy Morgan Research . 11 August 2011 . 14 August 2011.
  62. Web site: Key and National hit new highs in poll . Television New Zealand . 21 August 2011 . 21 August 2011.
  63. Web site: Poll shows National far ahead of Labour . 3 News . 21 August 2011 . 21 August 2011.
  64. News: Claire . Trevett . 30 August 2011 . Pre-election gloom for Labour after poll tumble . The New Zealand Herald . 30 August 2011.
  65. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED – 56% cf. 44% . Roy Morgan Research . 1 September 2011 . 3 September 2011.
  66. Web site: Greens shoot up in poll. Stuff (company) . Tracy . Watkins . Andrea . Vance . 31 August 2011 . 31 August 2011.
  67. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD SURGES 61.5% (UP 5.5%) cf. 38.5% (DOWN 5.5%). BIGGEST LEAD SINCE OCTOBER 2009 . Roy Morgan Research . 16 September 2011 . 18 September 2011.
  68. News: Waterfront move an 'overreaction' . The New Zealand Herald. 13 September 2011 . 14 September 2011 . Hayden . Donnell.
  69. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DIPS: NATIONAL 55.5% (DOWN 6%) cf. LABOUR 44.5% (UP 6%) . Roy Morgan Research . 30 September 2011 . 3 October 2011.
  70. Web site: New Zealand's credit rating downgraded – stuff.co.nz . The Dominion Post. 30 September 2011 . 7 October 2011.
  71. Web site: Asset sales, Christchurch rebuild on voters' minds. Stuff (company) . Andrea . Vance . 28 September 2011 . 30 September 2011.
  72. Web site: More poll woe for Labour and Goff . Television New Zealand . 2 October 2011 . 2 October 2011.
  73. Web site: Latest 3 News poll shows Nat's support doubled . 3 News . 2 October 2011 . 2 October 2011.
  74. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD INCREASES 59.5% (UP 4%) CF. LABOUR 40.5% (DOWN 4%) . Roy Morgan Research . 18 October 2011 . 18 October 2011.
  75. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DECREASES – 57.5% (DOWN 2%) CF. OPPOSITION PARTIES 42.5% (UP 2%) . Roy Morgan Research . 31 October 2011 . 31 October 2011.
  76. Web site: Chief Justice steps in for Writ Day . Newstalk ZB . 26 October 2011 . 26 October 2011.
  77. Web site: Electoral statistics for the whole of New Zealand . Electoral Commission . 28 October 2011 . 31 October 2011.
  78. News: Audrey . Young . National gains, Labour loses, but Goff's edging up . The New Zealand Herald . 29 October 2011 . 29 October 2011.
  79. Web site: Gap closes between Key and Goff in poll . 3 News . 30 October 2011 . 31 October 2011.
  80. Web site: Labour gains ground in latest poll – stuff.co.nz . Tracy . Watkins . 2 November 2011 . 2 November 2011.
  81. News: Audrey . Young . Labour slips further in latest poll . The New Zealand Herald . 3 November 2011 . 3 November 2011.
  82. Web site: National could easily govern alone, poll shows . Television New Zealand . 3 November 2011 . 3 November 2011.
  83. Web site: NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DIPS AGAIN . Roy Morgan Research . 11 November 2011 . 11 November 2011.
  84. Web site: National heading for outright win . Tracy . Watkins. Paloma . Migone . 9 November 2011 . 9 November 2011.
  85. News: Audrey . Young . Poll shock as Nats drop under 50% . The New Zealand Herald . 11 November 2011 . 11 November 2011.
  86. Web site: Drop in support for National and Labour – poll . Television New Zealand . 10 November 2011 . 10 November 2011.
  87. Web site: National to govern alone if poll holds for election night . 3 News . 13 November 2011 . 13 November 2011.
  88. News: Audrey . Young . Poll shock: Winston within a whisker . The New Zealand Herald . 18 November 2011 . 18 November 2011.
  89. Web site: Labour hits ten year low in latest poll . Television New Zealand . 17 November 2011 . 17 November 2011.
  90. Web site: NZ First climb polls on back of teapot tapes . 3 News . 17 November 2011 . 17 November 2011.
  91. Web site: NATIONAL SET FOR NEW ZEALAND ELECTION VICTORY NEXT SATURDAY . Roy Morgan Research . 19 November 2011 . 19 November 2011.
  92. News: National still cosy in polls after tea break . Watkins, Tracy . 23 November 2011 . . 24 November 2011.
  93. News: Audrey . Young . Final poll: Nats win looks certain, Winston over 5% . The New Zealand Herald . 25 November 2011 . 25 November 2011.
  94. Web site: Gap closes as election looms – poll . Television New Zealand . 24 November 2011 . 24 November 2011.
  95. News: Poll shows undecided voters figure leaps up . Garner, Duncan . Duncan Garner . 24 November 2011 . . 24 November 2011.
  96. Web site: NATIONAL SET FOR ELECTION VICTORY, BUT NO MAJORITY AS 'TEAPOT TAPE' SCANDAL DENTS NATIONAL & BENEFITS NZ FIRST . Roy Morgan Research . 25 November 2011 . 25 November 2011.
  97. Web site: Enrolment statistics for the whole of New Zealand . Electoral Commission . 24 November 2011 . 25 November 2011.
  98. Web site: Thousands get their votes in early . 3 News . 24 November 2011 . 24 November 2011.
  99. Web site: Election Results – Overall Status . Electoral Commission . 10 December 2011 . 10 December 2011 . https://web.archive.org/web/20060821113757/http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html . 21 August 2006 . dead .
  100. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  101. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  102. Labour still struggling, but signs of life – poll . . 8 August 2010 . 9 August 2010.
  103. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  104. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  105. News: Epsom poll has Banks sidelined . 19 November 2011 . David . Fisher . The New Zealand Herald. 9 October 2011.
  106. Web site: ACT polls at wipeout low in Epsom . 19 November 2011 . Andrea . Vance . Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz) . 17 November 2011.
  107. Web site: 'Cup of tea' meeting fails to sway voters to Act – poll . Television New Zealand . 18 November 2011 . 19 November 2011.
  108. http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/133/political-po "Political poll results may exclude 30%?"
  109. http://www.statschat.org.nz/2011/11/03/httpwww-3news-co-nzgoff-won-debate-polltabid415articleid231397default-aspx/ "For whom the belle polls"

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