Opinion polling for the 2009 Portuguese legislative election explained

In the run up to the 2009 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 20 February 2005, to the day the next election was held, on 27 September 2009.

Nationwide polling

Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Date	Polling Firm/Source						Others	Lead
27 Sep 2009	2009 legislative election	36.6	29.1	7.9	10.4	9.8	6.2	7.5
27 Sep (21:00)	Eurosondagem	36.5	28.0	8.3	10.6	10.2	6.4	8.5
27 Sep (20:00)	Eurosondagem	38.3	28.8	7.6	8.8	10.1	6.4	9.5
27 Sep	Intercampus	38.0	28.3	7.5	10.1	10.0	6.1	9.7
27 Sep	UCP–CESOP	38.0	27.0	8.5	10.0	10.5	6.0	11.0
21–24 Sep	Aximage	36.6	27.5	8.0	8.1	9.2	10.6	9.1
21–23 Sep	Intercampus	38.0	29.9	8.4	7.7	9.4	6.6	8.1
17–22 Sep	UCP–CESOP	38.0	30.0	7.0	8.0	11.0	6.0	8.0
18–21 Sep	Marktest	40.0	31.6	7.2	8.2	9.0	4.0	8.4
14–17 Sep	Aximage	36.1	29.7	7.5	7.6	10.0	9.1	6.4
13–16 Sep	Eurosondagem	34.9	31.6	8.4	8.4	9.6	7.1	3.3
12–15 Sep	Intercampus	32.9	29.7	9.2	7.0	12.0	9.2	3.2
11–14 Sep	UCP–CESOP	38.0	32.0	7.0	7.0	12.0	4.0	6.0
6–9 Sep	Eurosondagem	33.6	32.5	9.4	8.0	9.6	6.9	1.1
4–8 Sep	UCP–CESOP	37.0	35.0	8.0	6.0	11.0	3.0	2.0
4–7 Sep	Marktest	35.3	32.4	6.9	5.2	16.2	4.0	2.9
1–4 Sep	Aximage	34.5	28.9	7.8	8.1	10.4	10.3	5.6
23–28 Jul	Eurosondagem	33.0	31.1	9.4	8.5	10.0	8.0	1.9
14–18 Jul	Marktest	35.5	34.2	7.4	4.4	14.3	4.2	1.3
1–6 Jul	Aximage	30.5	30.3	9.5	6.1	13.3	10.3	0.2
25–30 Jun	Eurosondagem	35.1	33.0	9.7	7.4	9.6	5.2	2.1
16–20 Jun	Marktest	34.5	35.8	7.7	4.4	13.1	4.5	1.3
7 Jun 2009	2009 EP elections	26.5	31.7	10.6	8.4	10.7	12.1	5.2
7 Jun	Intercampus	36.9	31.2	10.3	6.4	13.1	2.1	5.7
1–4 Jun	Aximage	35.3	29.8	9.0	6.5	11.5	7.9	5.5
28 May–2 Jun	Eurosondagem	39.6	33.0	7.9	5.6	9.1	4.8	6.6
20–22 May	Marktest	36.3	28.3	9.4	7.1	14.7	4.2	8.0
5–7 May	Aximage	37.3	26.7	8.5	5.2	12.6	9.7	10.6
30 Apr–5 May	Eurosondagem	38.8	30.5	9.2	6.9	9.8	4.8	8.3
25–26 Apr	UCP–CESOP	41.0	34.0	7.0	2.0	12.0	4.0	7.0
14–19 Apr	Marktest	36.2	26.4	11.2	8.3	13.6	4.3	9.8
1–3 Apr	Aximage	38.1	25.1	10.3	5.7	12.6	8.2	13.0
25–31 Mar	Eurosondagem	39.6	29.6	9.4	7.0	9.6	4.8	10.0
17–21 Mar	Marktest	36.7	28.4	8.9	9.4	12.6	4.0	8.3
2–5 Mar	Aximage	38.3	24.0	9.0	6.8	12.6	9.3	14.3
26 Feb–3 Mar	Eurosondagem	39.0	28.3	9.6	7.7	10.4	5.0	10.7
17–22 Feb	Marktest	38.2	28.8	10.6	4.1	14.0	4.3	9.4
2–5 Feb	Aximage	38.2	23.8	9.2	7.7	12.0	9.1	14.4
28 Jan–3 Feb	Eurosondagem	40.3	29.1	8.8	6.9	10.1	4.8	11.2
20–23 Jan	Marktest	39.6	24.9	11.9	9.7	10.1	3.8	14.7
7–13 Jan	Eurosondagem	41.1	30.1	8.3	6.1	9.6	4.8	11.0
6–9 Jan	Aximage	37.3	23.3	8.1	7.7	11.4	12.2	14.0
2009
16–19 Dec	Marktest	39.9	25.7	11.0	8.0	11.6	3.8	14.2
13–14 Dec	UCP–CESOP	41.0	30.0	10.0	4.0	9.0	6.0	11.0
3–5 Dec	Aximage	37.9	25.9	8.4	6.2	9.5	12.1	12.0
27 Nov–2 Dec	Eurosondagem	42.5	30.0	8.4	6.0	8.7	4.4	12.5
18–21 Nov	Marktest	40.1	26.4	10.0	6.2	13.1	4.2	13.7
5 Nov	Eurosondagem	41.8	32.1	8.5	5.2	8.4	4.0	9.7
3–5 Nov	Aximage	38.6	26.1	9.0	4.7	9.1	12.5	12.5
21–24 Oct	Marktest	39.8	28.7	10.0	6.4	11.4	3.7	11.1
17–21 Oct	Intercampus	43.9	28.9	10.2	4.0	12.3	0.8	15.0
6–8 Oct	Aximage	38.0	28.5	9.2	3.8	9.3	11.2	9.5
4–5 Oct	UCP–CESOP	41.0	34.0	8.0	2.0	8.0	7.0	7.0
25–30 Sep	Eurosondagem	40.2	33.3	9.9	4.8	7.7	4.1	6.9
16–20 Sep	Marktest	36.1	29.3	12.6	7.1	10.9	4.0	6.8
8–10 Sep	Aximage	35.7	28.9	10.4	3.8	9.3	11.9	6.8
27 Aug–2 Sep	Eurosondagem	39.0	33.0	10.1	5.0	8.4	4.5	6.0
28–29 Jul	Aximage	33.1	31.1	9.1	4.4	9.4	12.9	2.0
23–29 Jul	Eurosondagem	39.6	32.0	10.0	5.5	8.1	4.8	7.6
15–18 Jul	Marktest	36.7	32.7	10.0	5.1	11.4	4.1	4.0
5–9 Jul	UCP–CESOP	40.0	32.0	10.0	3.0	7.0	8.0	8.0
1–4 Jul	Aximage	32.5	32.0	9.7	4.3	8.2	13.3	0.5
26 Jun–1 Jul	Eurosondagem	40.0	29.0	10.1	6.0	9.6	5.3	11.0
17–21 Jun	Marktest	35.2	30.8	11.1	6.7	12.3	3.9	4.4
28 May–3 Jun	Eurosondagem	41.8	25.0	11.0	6.9	10.0	5.3	16.8
19–26 May	Marktest	33.0	32.0	12.8	6.7	11.3	4.2	1.0
7–8 May	Aximage	36.5	29.0				34.5	7.5
23–29 Apr	Eurosondagem	43.2	26.9	10.0	6.3	8.8	4.8	16.3
15–18 Apr	Marktest	38.0	31.5	10.8	4.3	11.5	3.9	6.5
2–4 Apr	Aximage	35.7	26.0	8.9	5.1	10.2	14.1	9.7
27 Mar–1 Apr	Eurosondagem	42.1	29.4	9.6	6.0	8.4	4.5	12.7
17–20 Mar	Marktest	37.8	31.9	12.1	4.0	10.4	3.8	5.9
3–5 Mar	Aximage	33.8	28.4	9.2	4.5	8.5	15.6	5.4
20–26 Feb	Eurosondagem	43.2	31.2	8.3	5.8	7.2	4.3	12.0
23–24 Feb	UCP–CESOP	39.0	32.0	9.0	3.0	8.0	9.0	7.0
19–21 Feb	Marktest	36.1	33.4	12.8	5.6	8.0	4.1	2.7
1–4 Feb	Aximage	35.8	30.0	8.2	4.6	7.2	14.2	5.8
24–28 Jan	Eurosondagem	42.5	33.0	8.0	6.3	6.9	3.3	9.5
15–18 Jan	Marktest	38.1	33.5	9.9	6.3	8.4	3.8	4.6
7–9 Jan	Aximage	35.2	31.8	9.1	4.6	6.6	12.7	3.4
2–8 Jan	Eurosondagem	43.3	32.5	8.0	6.0	6.6	3.6	10.8
2008
18–21 Dec	Marktest	41.0	32.5	9.5	5.4	7.8	3.8	8.5
5–7 Dec	Aximage	37.0	29.2	8.5	4.4	6.7	14.2	7.8
28 Nov–4 Dec	Eurosondagem	44.2	32.1	8.6	5.9	6.3	2.9	12.1
20–23 Nov	Marktest	43.8	31.5	9.0	4.5	7.1	4.1	12.3
7–9 Nov	Aximage	36.1	27.8	8.1	3.8	6.6	17.6	8.3
24–30 Oct	Eurosondagem	45.5	31.5	8.8	5.0	5.9	3.3	14.0
20–21 Oct	UCP–CESOP	41.0	35.0	9.0	6.0	4.0	5.0	6.0
16–19 Oct	Marktest	36.9	35.9	12.3	2.9	8.1	3.9	1.0
2 Oct	Eurosondagem	45.4	28.9	10.1	5.2	5.9	4.5	16.5
1–2 Oct	Aximage	34.8	27.3	9.0	3.1	6.8	19.0	7.5
18–21 Sep	Marktest	41.5	27.6	10.8	8.4	7.5	4.2	13.9
3–4 Sep	Aximage	34.6	28.3	11.1	3.8	5.7	16.5	6.3
22–28 Aug	Eurosondagem	45.2	30.3	9.2	5.0	5.5	4.8	14.9
14–17 Aug	Marktest	42.7	28.3	9.4	7.2	8.5	3.9	14.4
7 Aug	Eurosondagem	43.5	33.0	7.7	4.8	6.9	4.1	10.5
21–22 Jul	Aximage	38.5	28.2	10.2	4.3	5.8	13.0	10.3
17–20 Jul	Marktest	43.9	29.0	8.0	6.0	9.0	4.1	14.9
4–6 Jul	Aximage	40.4	26.9				32.7	13.5
19–22 Jun	Marktest	40.4	29.3	10.0	7.4	8.7	4.2	11.1
5–7 Jun	Aximage	38.5	26.2				35.3	12.3
24–29 May	Eurosondagem	44.6	33.4	7.7	4.0	6.6	3.7	11.2
15–18 May	Marktest	46.8	27.3	8.4	5.6	8.2	3.7	19.5
30 Apr–4 May	Aximage	36.7	26.7	7.6	6.0	7.0	16.0	10.0
26 Apr–2 May	Eurosondagem	42.2	33.5	8.9	3.7	7.7	4.0	8.7
17–20 Apr	Marktest	43.3	27.7	12.6	4.8	7.8	3.8	15.6
16–18 Apr	Aximage	36.9	28.2	7.3	6.3	7.5	13.8	8.7
30 Mar–4 Apr	Aximage	35.7	30.0	7.0	6.5	7.9	12.9	5.7
28 Mar–2 Apr	Eurosondagem	44.2	32.3	9.5	2.7	7.4	3.9	11.9
19–21 Mar	Marktest	46.5	25.8	9.2	5.7	9.0	3.8	20.7
2 Mar	Eurosondagem	45.4	32.0	8.6	3.8	6.4	3.8	13.4
1–2 Mar	Aximage	37.4	31.2	6.2	6.3	7.6	11.3	6.2
13–16 Feb	Marktest	47.1	27.3	9.7	4.8	7.0	4.1	19.8
31 Jan–2 Feb	Aximage	39.0	29.4	6.5	5.0	6.0	14.1	9.6
25–30 Jan	Eurosondagem	44.4	33.3	7.8	4.4	6.7	3.4	11.1
16–19 Jan	Marktest	42.7	28.4	9.2	7.6	8.3	3.8	14.3
12 Jan	Eurosondagem	45.5	34.4	7.7	4.0	6.6	1.8	11.1
7–9 Jan	Aximage	38.9	28.4	8.2	3.4	4.9	16.2	10.5
2007
19–22 Dec	Marktest	43.1	28.5	9.8	6.7	8.3	3.6	14.6
5–7 Dec	Aximage	40.9	28.6	7.1	3.0	3.9	16.5	12.3
29 Nov–5 Dec	Eurosondagem	44.4	31.3	8.8	4.7	8.0	2.8	13.1
13–15 Nov	Marktest	43.4	28.5	10.3	5.7	8.2	3.9	14.9
10 Nov	Eurosondagem	43.7	32.2	9.2	4.6	6.9	3.4	11.5
6–8 Nov	Aximage	39.4	29.3	7.2	2.8	3.9	17.4	10.1
17–20 Oct	Marktest	42.0	29.7	10.6	3.9	9.7	4.1	12.3
2–4 Oct	Aximage	38.2	29.7	7.3	3.4	4.7	16.7	8.5
27 Sep–3 Oct	Eurosondagem	44.6	33.5	7.7	4.0	6.5	3.7	11.1
19–22 Sep	Marktest	45.7	29.9	9.9	1.7	8.4	4.4	15.8
6–7 Sep	Aximage	36.6	29.6	9.1	3.3	6.7	14.7	7.0
31 Aug–5 Sep	Eurosondagem	44.2	34.3	7.1	5.0	5.9	3.5	9.9
15–18 Aug	Marktest	44.4	30.9	9.8	2.2	8.5	4.2	13.5
18–21 Jul	Marktest	43.1	31.9	9.7	2.6	8.6	4.1	11.2
29 Jun–4 Jul	Eurosondagem	43.8	32.5	8.7	3.9	7.5	3.6	11.3
20–23 Jun	Marktest	44.1	28.6	9.5	6.1	7.8	3.9	15.5
8 Jun	Eurosondagem	43.0	34.5	8.0	4.9	6.9	2.7	8.5
2–3 Jun	Aximage	36.8	31.7	7.6	3.8	5.7	14.4	5.1
16–19 May	Marktest	42.1	30.2	8.2	7.0	8.5	4.0	11.9
4–5 May	Aximage	37.5	32.2	8.2	4.6	3.8	13.7	5.3
26 Apr–2 May	Eurosondagem	43.3	36.0	6.9	5.0	5.2	3.6	7.3
18–21 Apr	Marktest	43.1	30.5	8.0	5.2	9.0	4.2	12.6
10 Apr	Eurosondagem	42.4	36.6	7.7	4.7	5.0	3.6	5.8
1–3 Apr	Aximage	37.8	34.2	7.6	3.8	4.4	12.2	3.6
21–24 Mar	Marktest	41.9	35.1	7.2	4.0	7.8	4.0	6.8
2–7 Mar	Eurosondagem	42.6	34.3	8.4	4.8	6.3	3.6	8.3
1–3 Mar	Aximage	37.9	34.1	6.9	4.0	5.1	12.0	3.8
15–19 Feb	Marktest	38.0	35.8	9.6	3.8	8.8	4.0	2.2
2–7 Feb	Eurosondagem	41.4	36.0	8.0	5.2	5.8	3.6	5.4
1–3 Feb	Aximage	37.9	34.5	6.9	4.4	7.3	9.0	3.4
5–10 Jan	Eurosondagem	43.3	33.0	7.7	5.8	6.9	3.3	10.3
3–5 Jan	Aximage	37.5	33.9	7.1	4.2	8.2	9.1	3.6
2006
30 Nov–2 Dec	Aximage	35.4	34.9	7.4	4.8	7.7	9.8	0.5
15–19 Nov	Marktest	35.4	37.7	9.1	5.3	8.5	4.0	2.3
7–8 Nov	Aximage	35.1	33.4	8.1	4.1	7.2	12.1	1.7
18–21 Oct	Marktest	37.3	36.1	8.2	5.3	9.1	4.0	1.2
17–19 Oct	Aximage	35.4	32.7	7.6	3.7	8.0	12.6	2.7
9 Oct 2005	2005 local elections	35.9	39.9	10.9	3.1	3.0	7.2	4.0
22–27 Sep	Eurosondagem	42.5	33.0	8.0	7.0	6.0	3.5	9.5
20–26 Sep	Marktest	33.7	39.0	9.6	4.3	9.6	3.8	5.3
5–6 Sep	Aximage	38.2	30.1				31.7	8.1
1–6 Sep	Eurosondagem	43.0	31.9	7.8	6.2	6.8	4.2	11.1
19–22 Jul	Marktest	43.0	31.2	8.2	4.0	9.4	4.2	11.8
1–5 Jul	Aximage	40.4	28.4	6.5	4.5	7.2	13.0	12.0
18–20 Jun	UCP–CESOP	42.0	31.0	11.0	3.0	8.0	5.0	11.0
14–17 Jun	Marktest	46.5	27.7	10.8	4.2	6.9	3.9	18.8
3–6 Jun	Aximage	45.7	26.0	5.8	3.1	6.7	12.7	19.3
17–19 May	Marktest	48.8	30.2	6.0	4.2	6.8	4.0	18.6
3–4 May	Aximage	46.1	26.5	6.6	4.9	5.2	10.7	19.6
19–22 Apr	Marktest	45.7	30.6	7.2	4.5	8.1	3.9	15.1
3–4 Apr	Aximage	44.7	29.3	7.2	4.8	5.8	8.2	15.4
15–18 Mar	Marktest	51.7	26.3	6.5	5.0	6.7	3.8	25.4
20 Feb 2005	2005 legislative election	45.0	28.8	7.5	7.2	6.4	5.1	16.2

External links

• Marktest Opinion Poll Tracker
• ERC - Official publication of polls