Opinion polling for the 2008 Austrian legislative election explained

Election Name:2008 Austrian legislative election
Country:Austria
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2006 Austrian legislative election
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2013 Austrian legislative election
Next Year:2013
Seats For Election:183 seats in the National Council of Austria
92 seats were needed for a majority
Election Date:28 September 2008
Leader1:Werner Faymann
Leader Since1:2008
Party1:Social Democratic Party of Austria
Leaders Seat1:9 Vienna
Last Election1:68 seats, 35.34%
Seats1:57
Seat Change1: 11
Popular Vote1:1,430,206
Percentage1:29.26%
Swing1: 6.08%
Leader2:Wilhelm Molterer
Leader Since2:2007
Party2:Austrian People's Party
Leaders Seat2:4D Traunviertel
Last Election2:66 seats, 34.33%
Seats2:51
Seat Change2: 15
Popular Vote2:1,269,656
Percentage2:25.98%
Swing2: 8.35%
Leader3:Heinz-Christian Strache
Leader Since3:2005
Party3:Freedom Party of Austria
Leaders Seat3:9D Vienna South
Last Election3:21 seats, 11.04%
Seats3:34
Seat Change3: 13
Popular Vote3:857,029
Percentage3:17.54%
Swing3: 6.50%
Leader4:Jörg Haider
Leader Since4:2008
Party4:Alliance for the Future of Austria
Leaders Seat4:2A Klagenfurt
Last Election4:7 seats, 4.11%
Seats4:21
Seat Change4: 14
Popular Vote4:522,933
Percentage4:10.70%
Swing4: 6.59%
Leader5:Alexander Van der Bellen
Leader Since5:1997
Party5:The Greens – The Green Alternative
Leaders Seat5:9F Vienna North-West
Last Election5:21 seats, 11.05%
Seats5:20
Seat Change5: 1
Popular Vote5:509,936
Percentage5:10.43%
Swing5: 0.62%
Leader6:Heide Schmidt
Leader Since6:2008
Party6:Liberal Forum
Leaders Seat6:9F Vienna North-West
Last Election6:did not contest on their own
Seats6:0
Seat Change6: 0
Popular Vote6:102,249
Percentage6:2.09%
Swing6: 2.09%
Chancellor
Before Election:Alfred Gusenbauer
Before Party:Social Democratic Party of Austria
After Election:Werner Faymann
After Party:Social Democratic Party of Austria

A legislative snap election for the National Council in Austria was held on 28 September 2008.[1] The previous election was held on 1 October 2006. The election (the 24th in Austrian history) was caused by the withdrawal of Austrian People's Party leader Wilhelm Molterer from the governing grand coalition (led by the Social Democratic Party of Austria) on 7 July 2008.[2] Due to dissatisfaction with the grand coalition and the two main parties, it was widely expected to be a realigning election, with gains for the opposition and up to seven parties expected to be in the National Council after the election.[3] [4] [5] [6] The losses for the government parties (both the SPÖ and the ÖVP had the worst election result in history) resulted in strong gains for the far right, while neither the Liberal Forum nor the Citizens' Forum Austria (both of which were considered to have chances of gaining seats) gained as much as 2% of the vote, defying earlier expectations. The result of the election was seen as strong for the far-right and in support of Eurosceptics.[7]

Molterer resigned as party chairman as a result of the losses suffered by the ÖVP and was replaced by environment minister Josef Pröll; the Greens' federal spokesman Alexander Van der Bellen (in office since 1997) also resigned and was replaced by his deputy, Eva Glawischnig. Due to the LIF's failure to enter parliament on its own, LIF founder Heide Schmidt and financier Hans-Peter Haselsteiner both declared their complete withdrawal from politics, and the LIF's fate was seen as uncertain. Shortly after the election, BZÖ leader and Carinthian governor Jörg Haider died in a car accident.

Opinion polling

AgencyDateSPÖÖVPGRÜNEFPÖBZÖLIFFRITZKPÖRETTÖDCOthersSKÖMATIN
Election 20062006-10-0135.334.311.511.04.1—1.0——3.1——
OGM2008-06-2133bgcolor=lightgrey3314164——————
market2008-07-0227bgcolor=lightgrey3314213—————2
Fessel-GfK2008-07-0828bgcolor=lightgrey3514203——————
market2008-07-0926bgcolor=lightgrey3314224—————1
Gallup2008-07-1027bgcolor=lightgrey3216194—————2
Gallup2008-07-1021bgcolor=lightgrey2314185272——2
Integral2008-07-1228bgcolor=lightgrey3114164—5———2
OGM2008-07-1330bgcolor=lightgrey3314183—————2
Gallup2008-07-1724bgcolor=lightgrey261619526————
Humaninstitut2008-07-1725bgcolor=lightgrey2811192—————15
IMAS2008-07-1924bgcolor=lightgrey2915204—5———3
Gallup2008-07-2527bgcolor=lightgrey3016195——————
Gallup2008-07-2525bgcolor=lightgrey291415746————
OGM2008-07-2925bgcolor=lightgrey301317445———2
IMAS2008-07-2925bgcolor=lightgrey2915186——————
Gallup2008-07-3123bgcolor=lightgrey261517757————
Fessel-GfK2008-08-0425bgcolor=lightgrey2912–1317–182–33–44–5————
market2008-08-0726bgcolor=lightgrey291420334————
Gallup2008-08-0826bgcolor=lightgrey261419636————
Gallup2008-08-1427bgcolor=lightgrey281517535————
OGM2008-08-1626bgcolor=lightgrey311317444————
market2008-08-2026bgcolor=lightgrey271420534———1
IMAS2008-08-2027–29bgcolor=lightgrey27–2912–1417–196–8—————7–9
Gallup2008-08-2425bgcolor=lightgrey261518644———2
market2008-08-2728261320433———3
Gallup2008-08-2827261219544———3
IFES2008-08-2926bgcolor=lightgrey2616155—4———8
IMAS2008-08-2926–2825–2712–1417–196–83–43–41–21–20–1—
Fessel-GfK2008-08-3028261217>44————<9
OGM2008-08-3127bgcolor=lightgrey281218643———2
market2008-09-032825122053311—2
Gallup2008-09-0428271217643———3
Humaninstitut2008-09-04321912191044————
OGM2008-09-0629271217742———2
GMK2008-09-0830271118634————
market2008-09-1029271118732———3
Fessel-GfK2008-09-1125.8bgcolor=lightgrey28.51712.76.72.11.23.3—1.51.2
Gallup2008-09-1228271216643———4
IFES2008-09-1227bgcolor=lightgrey271317543———4
Spectra2008-09-1228–3126–2911–1315–177–92–41–3————
OGM2008-09-1328261218842———2
Integral2008-09-1628bgcolor=lightgrey281218742———2
market2008-09-1629261120632———3
Gallup2008-09-1828261217843———2
OGM2008-09-2029261118842———2
market2008-09-2329271019832———2
IFES2008-09-2627bgcolor=lightgrey271216752———4
Gallup2008-09-2629271217832———2
Results2008-09-2829.326.010.417.510.72.11.80.80.70.60.9

~ Failed to collect the required signatures.
# Decided not to contest the election.

Kanzlerfrage (chancellor question)
AgencyDateFaymann
(SPÖ)		Molterer
(ÖVP)		Van der Bellen
(GRÜNE)		Strache
(FPÖ)		Haider
(BZÖ)		Schmidt
(LIF)		Dinkhauser
(FRITZ)
market2008-07-0926bgcolor=lightgrey29—————
Gallup2008-07-104031—————
OGM2008-07-13191810113*——
Gallup2008-07-173831—————
Gallup2008-07-253930—————
Gallup2008-07-314223—————
Gallup2008-08-094526—————
Gallup2008-08-094027—————
OGM2008-08-1722191286——
Gallup2008-08-244225—————
market2008-08-273520—————
Gallup2008-08-284627—————
OGM2008-08-312118128624
market2008-09-033521—————
Gallup2008-09-044528—————
OGM2008-09-062417128843
market2008-09-103520—————
Gallup2008-09-124731—————
Spectra2008-09-1228171110943
OGM2008-09-132215911943
market2008-09-163323—————
Gallup2008-09-184532—————
OGM2009-09-202316810942

* Westenthaler was polled instead of Haider before it was announced that Westenthaler would not be the leading candidate.

Koalitionsfrage (coalition question)
AgencyDateSPÖ–ÖVPÖVP–SPÖSPÖ–GRÜNEÖVP–GRÜNESPÖ–FPÖ(–BZÖ)ÖVP–FPÖ(–BZÖ)
OGM14 July 2008799bgcolor=lightgrey1369
Gallup4 August 200816°16°271879
OGM5 September 2008101011911bgcolor=lightgrey13
Gallup15 September 200818°18°2013175

° The two types of grand coalition were not polled separately.

State polls

StateAgencyDateSPÖÖVPGRÜNEFPÖBZÖLIFFRITZOthers
SalzburgIFG2008-07-1023bgcolor=lightgrey3711175—43
SalzburgIFG2008-09-1127bgcolor=lightgrey3111157324
Upper AustriaSpectra2008-08-0228–3026–2813–1516–184–61–3—6–8
ViennaOEKONSULT2008-08-1739.2016.0417.0820.183.23——4.27
Kanzlerfrage (chancellor question)
Koalitionsfrage (coalition question)
StateAgencyDateSPÖ–ÖVPSPÖ–GRÜNEÖVP–GRÜNESPÖ–FPÖ(–BZÖ)ÖVP–FPÖ(–BZÖ)
SalzburgIFG10 July 20081617bgcolor=lightgrey22919
SalzburgIFG11 September 2008bgcolor=lightgrey2611181110

External links

Information on the 2008 National Council election

Site of the ORF on the 2008 National Council election

Site of FM4 on the 2008 National Council election

blog with interviews, polls and commentaries (Neuwal, "early whale", is a pun on Neuwahl, "early election".)

Political parties

Werner Faymann's website

Wilhelm Molterer's website

Alexander Van der Bellen's website

Heinz-Christian Strache's website

Heide Schmidt's website

supported by Unity List (Enotna lista/Einheitsliste)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 28. September als Neuwahltermin fix . de. Orf.at. 26 November 2008.
  2. News: BBC NEWS World Europe Austria ruling coalition crumbles. News.bbc.co.uk. 7 July 2008. 26 November 2008. https://web.archive.org/web/20081219140519/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7493842.stm. 19 December 2008 . live.
  3. Web site: Bronner Online AG . derStandard.at . Derstandard.at. 26 November 2008.
  4. Web site: Die Zeit ist reif für einen Umbruch « DiePresse.com . Diepresse.com. 26 November 2008.
  5. Web site: Datum 7-8/08 – Seiten der Zeit: Hajek bloggt: Die Unentschlossenen. Das geheime Wesen . Datum.at . 26 November 2008 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101225214841/http://www.datum.at/7808/stories/5137794/ . 25 December 2010 .
  6. Web site: Listenrekord bei NR-Wahlen kurier.at . Kurier.at . 26 November 2008 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20120227134840/http://kurier.at/nachrichten/193968.php . February 27, 2012 .
  7. News: Far Right storms election as Austrians back anti-EU rhetoric – Times Online . The Times . London . 26 November 2008 . 29 September 2008. Bojan. Pancevski.

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