Opinion polling for the 2007 French legislative election explained

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2007 French legislative elections, which were held in two rounds on 10 and 17 June 2007.

Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.

Graphical summary

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the five major French pollsters. The graphs are smoothed 14-day weighted moving averages, using only the most recent poll conducted by any given pollster within that range (each poll weighted based on recency).

First round

During the 2007 presidential election, Ipsos launched the first ever rolling poll in France, described as a "continuous electoral barometer",[1] which it continued to carry out for the legislative elections in June.

Other far-left parties received 0.32% of the vote in the first round in 2002; this total is included in the total for miscellaneous candidates, which would otherwise be 0.84%. Results for the Citizen and Republican Movement are compared with those of the Republican Pole in 2002, and Liberal Democracy and Rally for France are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 3.89%; the two parties received 0.42% and 0.36% of the vote, respectively.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
LOLCRPCFMRCPSPRGDVGLVECOMoDemNCUMPDVDMPFFNMNRCPNTEXDREGDIV
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-10"10 Jun 200739.58%3.41% (EXG)4.29%(DVG)24.73%1.32%1.97%3.25%0.80%7.61%2.37%39.54%2.47%1.20%4.29%(EXD)0.82%0.39%0.51%1.03%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-08"8 Jun 20079622.5%3.5%29.5%2.5%10%41.5%1%1.5%5.5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
CSAdata-sort-value="2007-06-07"6–7 Jun 20078221%3%4%28%4%7%41%1%6%1%4%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-07"6–7 Jun 20071,2073%4%28%3%9%43%1%1.5%5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-06"5–6 Jun 20071,2073%4%29%3%9%41.5%1%2%5.5%0.5%0.5%1%
TNS Sofresdata-sort-value="2007-06-06"5–6 Jun 20071,0003.5%3%29.5%3%10%41.5%2%1%4%0.5%0.5%1.5%
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-06-05"4–5 Jun 20078203%4%28%3%8%42%4%5%3%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-05"4–5 Jun 20071,2063%3.5%29%3%9%41.5%1%1.5%6%0.5%1%1%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-04"1–4 Jun 20071,5582.5%3.5%29%3.5%9%42.5%1%1%5.5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-02"31 May–2 Jun 20071,3572.5%3.5%29%4%8%43%1%1.5%5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-06-01"31 May–1 Jun 20079294%4.5%27%3%9%41%1.5%6%4%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-01"30 May–1 Jun 20071,2242.5%3%29.5%4%7.5%43.5%1.5%1.5%4.5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
CSAdata-sort-value="2007-05-31"30–31 May 20078522%2%4%26%5%8%42%1%5%1%4%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-31"29–31 May 20071,2122.5%3%29.5%3.5%7%43.5%1.5%2%5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-30"28–30 May 20071,2153%3.5%29.5%3%7.5%43.5%1.5%2%4.5%0.5%0.5%1%
TNS Sofresdata-sort-value="2007-05-29"28–29 May 20071,0004%4%27%3%10%42%2%1.5%4%0.5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-29"26–29 May 20071,3213%3.5%29.5%3%8.5%43%1%2%4.5%0.5%0.5%1%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-28"25–28 May 20071,3563%4%28.5%3%9%43.5%1%2%4%0.5%0.5%1%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-26"24–26 May 20071,3563%4%28%2.5%9.5%43%1%2.5%4.5%0.5%0.5%1%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-05-25"24–25 May 20079312%3.5%27.5%4%12%41%2%6%2%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-25"23–25 May 20071,2513%4%27.5%2.5%9.5%43.5%1%2%5%0.5%0.5%1%
CSAdata-sort-value="2007-05-24"23–24 May 20078632%3%3%26%5%12%37%2%8%1%1%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-24"22–24 May 20071,2134%4%28%3%9%42.5%2.5%5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-23"21–23 May 20071,2124%4%29%3.5%8.5%41.5%2%5.5%0.5%1.5%
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-05-22"21–22 May 20078654.5%3%30%3.5%9%42%3%5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-22"19–22 May 20071,7734%3.5%28.5%3.5%9%41.5%2.5%5.5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-21"19–21 May 20071,3724%3.5%29.5%4%8.5%41%2.5%5.5%0.5%1%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-19"19 May 20079684%3%29%4%9%41%2.5%6%0.5%1%
TNS Sofresdata-sort-value="2007-05-19"18–19 May 20071,0003.5%3.5%28%4%15%40%1.5%3.5%1%
CSAdata-sort-value="2007-05-16"15–16 May 20078901%2%3%27%3%16%38%1%7%1%1%
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-05-15"14–15 May 20078403%3%30%4%12%36%4%8%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-12"11–12 May 20079483%3.5%28%4%10%40%2%8%0.5%1%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-05-11"10–11 May 20078853%4%28%4%14%37%2%7%1%
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-05-07"7 May 20078065%3%30%6%9%35%4%8%
CSAdata-sort-value="2007-05-06"6 May 20071,0302%1%2%30%1%15%35%2%8%2%2%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-05-04"3–4 May 20078834%4%29%5%12%34%2%7%1%2%
TNS Sofresdata-sort-value="2007-04-23"23 Apr 20071,0004%3%32%4%12%32%2%9%2%
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-01-09"8–9 Jan 20078594%5%31%2%5%1%5%31%3%10%3%
2002 electiondata-sort-value="2002-06-09"9 Jun 200235.58%1.18%1.24%4.91%1.19%23.78%1.51%1.38%4.44%1.15%4.79%33.37%4.68%0.79%11.12%1.08%1.64%0.25%0.36%1.16%

Second round seat projections

Projections marked with an asterisk (*) are for 555 deputies representing metropolitan France. The final three Ipsos projections were constructed using interviews in 184 constituencies with left-right duels where the outcome appeared uncertain, while the two preceding projections were based on 197 constituencies.

Seats for Liberal Democracy and Rally for France are included in the miscellaneous right total for 2002, which would otherwise be 9; the parties each won 2 seats.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
PCFMRCPSPRGDVGLVMoDemNCUMPDVDMPFREGDIV
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-17"17 Jun 200740.02%15(DVG)18671543223139111
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-15"14–15 Jun 20071,20911–16140–1752–42–320–23358–3952
CSAdata-sort-value="2007-06-14"13–14 Jun 200793910–1595–1301–31–3420–4631–3
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-14"13–14 Jun 20071,00910–15125–1562–32–320–23379–4112
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-13"12–13 Jun 200797210–15121–1491–32–320–23386–4152
TNS Sofresdata-sort-value="2007-06-13"12–13 Jun 20071,00010–15125–1552–41–221–23380–41022
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-06-12"12 Jun 200780610–16105–1313–41–3394–434
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-12"11–12 Jun 20071,3738–15115–1461–32–320–23388–4222
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-11"11 Jun 20077937–14117–1571–31–320–23387–4282
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-08"8 Jun 20079625–10114–1620–22–621–24364–404
CSAdata-sort-value="2007-06-07"6–7 Jun 20078224–12110–1541–31–6390–4202–3
TNS Sofresdata-sort-value="2007-06-06"5–6 Jun 20071,0004–10115–1551–32–6390–4302–3
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-06-05"4–5 Jun 20078206–14120–1731–31–4366–4190–3
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-05"4–5 Jun 20071,2065–10115–1580–21–621–24361–406
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-06-01"31 May–1 Jun 20079299–1580–1200–20–4420–4602
CSAdata-sort-value="2007-05-31"30–31 May 20078524–12111–1511–31–6402–4252–3
TNS Sofresdata-sort-value="2007-05-29"28–29 May 20071,0004–10101–1421–32–6410–4302–3
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-28"25–28 May 20071,3566–12102–1420–21–621–25380–417
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-05-25"24–25 May 20079316–1090–1300–20–6410–4502
CSAdata-sort-value="2007-05-24"23–24 May 20078636–14132–1821–41–6353–4072–3
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-05-22"21–22 May 20078654–10121–1590–30–3379–431
TNS Sofresdata-sort-value="2007-05-19"18–19 May 20071,0002–9137–1531–22–10365–4152–3
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-05-15"14–15 May 200784014–21151–2001–20–4317–3814–11
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-05-11"10–11 May 20078859–13149–1900–40–8336–3900–2
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-05-07"7 May 200780614–18158–2000–68–134–7
2002 electiondata-sort-value="2002-06-16"16 Jun 200239.69%2101407632935513111

By second round configuration

Configurations tested before the first were collected among a national sample, except for the Ipsos poll conducted on 13 June 2007 which was conducted specifically in 17 constituencies where a victory for a French Communist Party candidate was considered possible.

PS/PCF/LV–UMP/NC

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
PS/
PCF/LV
UMP/
NC
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-08"8 Jun 200796244%56%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-07"6–7 Jun 20071,20743%57%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-06"5–6 Jun 20071,20744%56%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-05"4–5 Jun 20071,20644%56%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-04"1–4 Jun 20071,55843%57%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-02"31 May–2 Jun 20071,35743.5%56.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-06-01"30 May–1 Jun 20071,22444%56%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-31"29–31 May 20071,21244.5%55.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-30"28–30 May 20071,21544%56%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-29"26–29 May 20071,32143.5%56.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-28"25–28 May 20071,35642.5%57.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-26"24–26 May 20071,35642.5%57.5%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-25"23–25 May 20071,25142%58%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-24"22–24 May 20071,21342%58%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-23"21–23 May 20071,21243%57%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-22"19–22 May 20071,77343%57%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-21"19–21 May 20071,37244%56%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-19"19 May 200796843%57%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-12"11–12 May 200794844%56%

PS/PCF/LV–MoDem–UMP

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
PS/
PCF/LV
MoDemUMP
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-23"21–23 May 20071,21239%9%52%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-22"19–22 May 20071,77338%10%52%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-21"19–21 May 20071,37239%10%51%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-19"19 May 200796838%10%52%
Ipsosdata-sort-value="2007-05-12"11–12 May 200794838%11%51%

PCF–UMP/NC

By constituency

First round

Ardèche's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Jean Fantini
Olivier Dussopt
Jean-Claude Mourgues
Dominique Chambon
Gérard Weber
Jacques Dubay
Claude Richard
Others
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-10"10 Jun 200737.71%3.51%26.10%3.42%8.82%29.37%16.87%3.72%8.20%
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-06-05"1–5 Jun 20076072.5%27%4%14%26%14%6%6.5%

Drôme's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Anne-Marie Reme-Pic
Thierry Cornillet
Franck Reynier
Joël Cheval
Others
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-10"10 Jun 200739.10%27.76%13.71%40.41%6.63%11.50%
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-06-02"31 May–2 Jun 200760328%17%36%6%13%

Eure's 3rd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Francis Courel
Nathalie Zanon
Philippe Raviart
Hervé Morin
Marc Le Tanneur
Others
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-10"10 Jun 200736.78%16.07%10.32%5.40%50.05%3.97%14.19%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-06-05"4–5 Jun 200760717%10%5%49%4%15%

Gironde's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Michèle Delaunay
Pierre Hurmic
Ludovic Guinard
Alain Juppé
Others
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-10"10 Jun 200739.54%31.36%6.83%8.31%43.73%9.77%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-05-30"29–30 May 200760233%6%6%44%11%

Isère's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Geneviève Fioraso
Marie-Odile Novelli
Philippe de Longevialle
Alain Carignon
Richard Cazenave
Others
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-10"10 Jun 200736.88%32.02%6.52%10.35%21.45%19.62%10.04%
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-06-02"31 May–2 Jun 200760435%5%11%19%20%10%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd

Jean-Pierre Mariné withdrew and did not contest the second round despite being eligible to after the decision of the party to allow Bayrou to carry the constituency.[2]

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Marie-Pierre Cabanne
Nicole Juyoux
François Bayrou
Jean-Pierre Mariné
Michèle Darricarrère
Frédéric Nihous
Others
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-10"10 Jun 200733.22%23.32%2.36%37.25%25.92%2.29%2.39%6.47%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-06-02"1–2 Jun 200760321%2.5%45%20%3%3%5.5%

Saône-et-Loire's 6th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Arnaud Montebourg
Éric Michoux
Arnaud Danjean
Monique Faure-Lafont
Others
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-10"10 Jun 200735.04%41.37%4.58%43.95%2.91%7.18%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-06-04"2–4 Jun 200760542%5%39%8%6%

Sarthe's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Gilles Leproust
Stéphane Le Foll
Jean-Pierre Bourrely
François Fillon
Catherine du Boisbaudry
Others
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-10"10 Jun 200736.47%4.09%30.03%4.10%53.40%2.39%5.99%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-05-30"29–30 May 20076024%25%4%54%5%8%

Paris's 8th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Sandrine Mazetier
Pénélope Komitès
Jean-François Pernin
Arno Klarsfeld
Philippe Coulnecheff
Others
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-10"10 Jun 200734.29%33.54%3.67%12.31%35.76%2.47%12.24%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-06-05"4–5 Jun 200760534%5%13%34%4%10%

Vaucluse's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Pierre Meffre
Roland Roticci
Thierry Mariani
Jacques Bompard
Emmanuelle Gueguen
Others
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-10"10 Jun 200737.11%20.34%4.80%41.36%19.72%4.44%9.34%
BVAdata-sort-value="2007-06-02"31 May–2 Jun 200760524%3%40%19%5%9%

Second round

Ardèche's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Olivier Dussopt
Dominique Chambon
Gérard Weber
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-17"17 Jun 200737.16%53.71%46.29%
BVA1–5 Jun 200760751%49%
43%15%42%

Drôme's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Anne-Marie Reme-Pic
Thierry Cornillet
Franck Reynier
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-17"17 Jun 200739.10%47.00%53.00%
BVA31 May–2 Jun 200760350%50%
39%18%43%
47%53%
47%53%

Eure's 3rd

Hervé Morin was directly elected in the first round on 10 June 2007.

Gironde's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Michèle Delaunay
Alain Juppé
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-17"17 Jun 200738.93%50.93%49.07%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-05-30"29–30 May 200760248.5%51.5%

Isère's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Geneviève Fioraso
Philippe de Longevialle
Alain Carignon
Richard Cazenave
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-17"17 Jun 200737.64%63.03%36.97%
BVA31 May–2 Jun 200760462%38%
50%22%28%
53%47%
46%24%30%
45%18%37%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Marie-Pierre Cabanne
François Bayrou
Jean-Pierre Mariné
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-17"17 Jun 200737.26%38.79%61.21%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-06-02"1–2 Jun 200760328%46%26%

Saône-et-Loire's 6th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Arnaud Montebourg
Arnaud Danjean
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-17"17 Jun 200730.10%50.34%49.66%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-06-04"2–4 Jun 200760551%49%

Paris's 8th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Sandrine Mazetier
Arno Klarsfeld
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-17"17 Jun 200735.64%55.85%44.15%
Ifopdata-sort-value="2007-06-05"4–5 Jun 200760550%50%

Vaucluse's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Pierre Meffre
Thierry Mariani
Jacques Bompard
2007 electiondata-sort-value="2007-06-17"17 Jun 200739.31%39.82%60.18%
BVA31 May–2 Jun 200760537%63%
32%46%22%
69%31%

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Ipsos lance le premier baromètre électoral en continu. Ipsos. 28 February 2007. 1 March 2018.
  2. News: François Bayrou réélu dans les Pyrénée-Atlantiques. La Dépêche du Midi. 17 June 2007. 1 March 2018.