Opinion polling for the 2005 New Zealand general election explained

Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 47th New Zealand Parliament and in the lead up to the 2005 election by various organisations.

Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2005 election

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Individual polls

Poll	Date	Labour	National	NZ First	ACT	Green	United Future	Māori	Destiny
2002 election result	27 Jul 2002	41.26	20.93	10.38	7.14	7.00	6.69	N/A^[1]
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	1 Sep 2002	40	25	10	6	7	8
TV3 NFO^[3]	16 – 22 Sep 2002	49	19	10	5	8	4.7
NBR-HP Invent^[4]	19 – 22 Sep 2002	44	22	9.5		8.5	5.9
One News Colmar Brunton^[5]	23 – 26 Sep 2002^[6]	47	26	8	5	6	4
One News Colmar Brunton^[7]	27 Oct 2002	51	25	7	5	5	5
NBR-HP Invent^[8]	18 – 20 Oct 2002	47	24	9.1	4.9	7.5	4.7
TV3 NFO^[9]	18 – 24 Nov 2002^[10]	50	19	10	4.8	8	5
One News Colmar Brunton^[11]	18 Nov 2002	49	26	8	6	5	2.9
One News Colmar Brunton^[12]	15 Dec 2002	52	25	6	5	5	4
Herald-DigiPoll^[13]	3 Feb 2003	49.6	22.9	7.2	5.9	5.1	3.3
TV3 NFO^[14]	10 – 16 Feb 2003	56	21	6	4.2	6	3.6
One News Colmar Brunton^[15]	17 Feb 2003	53	27	5	6	6	2
One News Colmar Brunton^[16]	23 Mar 2003	51	28	6	6	5	2.9
TV3 NFO^[17]	7 – 13 Apr 2003	53	26	5	4.9	6	2.4
One News Colmar Brunton^[18]	13 Apr 2003	52	26	6	5	5	2
Herald-DigiPoll^[19]	15–18 May 2003	49.4	28	8	5.6	5.3	1.8
One News Colmar Brunton^[20]	12 – 15 May 2003	50	28	7	6	3	2
TV3 NFO^[21]	9 – 16 Jun 2003^[22]	52	24	8	4.5	6	2.9
One News Colmar Brunton^[23]	16 Jun 2003	54	28			4
13 Jun 2003 – Destiny New Zealand is formed.^[24]
Herald-DigiPoll	Jul 2003	48.2	27.2	9.2	4.8	5.1	3.4
One News Colmar Brunton^[25]	13 Jul 2003	51	28	7	6	4	1.1
Herald-DigiPoll^[26]	12 – 17 Aug 2003	47.7	26.8	9.7	4.4	5	4.2
TV3 NFO^[27]	12 Aug 2003	52	23	9	5	6	2.7
One News Colmar Brunton^[28]	17 Aug 2003	47	27	8	6	5	2.6
One News Colmar Brunton^[29]	15 Sep 2003	45	29	8	5	7	3.4
Herald-DigiPoll^[30]	15 Oct 2003	43.3	22.3	12.3	6.2	9.2	2.7
TV3 NFO^[31]	6 Oct 2003	46	24	10	6	8	2.9
One News Colmar Brunton^[32]	14 Oct 2003	45	27	8	6	7	2.8
28 Oct 2003 – Don Brash is elected leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton^[33]	9 Nov 2003	45	31	8	4	7	2.2
One News Colmar Brunton^[34]	14 Dec 2003	45	28	11	6	4	2.1
27 Jan 2004 – Don Brash delivers his Orewa Speech.
Herald-DigiPoll^[35]	23 Feb 2004	37	45.5	5.6	2.3	5.3	1.4
3 News TNS^[36]	5 Feb 2004	43	32	8	4.2	8	2.4
One News Colmar Brunton^[37]	29 Jan – 4 Feb 2004^[38]	38	45	6	1.3	5	1.8
3 News TNS	27 – 29 Feb 2004	39	42	6	2.4	6	0.9
One News Colmar Brunton^[39]	22 Mar 2004	39	49	4	2	2.2	1.7
3 News TNS^[40]	25 – 31 Mar 2004	42	42	5	1.3	4.6	2.1
One News Colmar Brunton^[41]	25 Apr 2004	37	48	5	1.6	5	1.9
One News Colmar Brunton^[42]	17 – 20 May 2004^[43]	37	47	5	3	4	1.4
Herald-DigiPoll^[44]	27 May – 1 Jun 2004	36	44	5.6	2	4.7	2.4
3 News TNS^[45]	27 May – 3 Jun 2004^[46]	43	40	5	2	4.6	2.3
13 Jun 2004 – Rodney Hide replaces Richard Prebble as leader of ACT New Zealand.
One News Colmar Brunton	21 Jun 2004	40	44	2.7	2.3	5	2.2
One News Colmar Brunton^[47]	5 – 8 Jul 2004	39	43	5	2.7	4	2.2
7 Jul 2004 – The Māori Party is formed.
3 News TNS^[48]	31 Jul 2004	44	39	5	2.6	4.7	1.8	0.9
Sunday Star-Times/BRC	1 Aug 2004	44	39		3			3
One News Colmar Brunton^[49]	9 – 12 Aug 2004	44	40	4	1.6	4	1.5
One News Colmar Brunton^[50]	13 Sep 2004	42	42	5	2.5	4	1.7
Herald-DigiPoll^[51]	28 Sep 2004	40.8	36	5	1	3.6	2.6	1.5
3 News TNS^[52]	30 Sep – 6 Oct 2004	45	33	5	3.3	5.2	2.8
One News Colmar Brunton^[53]	14 Oct 2004	44	39	5	3.1	4	2.2
One News Colmar Brunton^[54]	15 Nov 2004	44	38	5	3.3	4	2.5
Herald-DigiPoll^[55]	19 – 27 Nov 2004	50.1	30.4	5.7	2.5	5.4	2.3	1.9
3 News TNS^[56]	25 Nov – 1 Dec 2004	46	32	7	2.8	5.1	2.3	2.6
One News Colmar Brunton^[57]	13 Dec 2004	47	35	5	2.8	5	1.4
Herald-DigiPoll^[58]	1 Feb 2005	44.8	35.3	4.7	1.6	6.9	3	1.5
3 News TNS^[59]	4 Feb 2005	46	38	5	2.1	4.7	1.4	1.7
One News Colmar Brunton^[60]	14 Feb 2005	44	39	5	2	4	1	2
One News Colmar Brunton^[61]	14 – 17 Mar 2005	46	35	5	3	5	1	1
Herald-DigiPoll^[62]	22 – 30 Mar 2005	47.7	34.5
3 News TNS^[63]	15 Apr 2005	45	34	8
One News Colmar Brunton^[64]	17 Apr 2005	45	38	7	3	4	1	1
One News Colmar Brunton^[65]	16 May 2005	44	37	8	2	4	1	2
3 News TNS^[66]	9 – 16 Jun 2005	40	36	11	1.5	6
Fairfax Media–Nielsen^[67]	18 Jun 2005	40	38	8	2	5	2	2
One News Colmar Brunton^[68]	19 Jun 2005	41	43	7	2	3	1	2
One News Colmar Brunton^[69]	18 Jul 2005	39	42	7	1	6	1	2
3 News TNS^[70]	21 – 27 Jul 2005	39	39	7	1.6	6	1.4	2.2
Roy Morgan Research^[71]	21 Jul – 1 Aug 2005	38	38	10	1.5	6	2
One News Colmar Brunton^[72]	1–4 Aug 2005	45	41	5	2	3	1	1
Roy Morgan Research	2–15 Aug 2005	40	36.5	8	2.5	7.5	2
One News Colmar Brunton^[73]	15–18 Aug 2005	45	37	6	2	6	1	1	1
One News Colmar Brunton^[74]	22–25 Aug 2005	43	40	5	2	7	1	1	1
3 News TNS^[75]	25 – 30 Aug 2005	39	41	6	1.4	6	1.7	1.7
One News Colmar Brunton^[76]	29 Aug – 1 Sep 2005	38	46	5	1	6	1	2	1
Roy Morgan Research^[77]	3 – 13 Sep 2005	38.5	37	6.5	3	7.5	2.5	1.5
One News Colmar Brunton^[78]	5–8 Sep 2005	39	41	6	3	6	2	1	1
3 News TNS^[79]	8 – 14 Sep 2005	40.5	38.7	6.8	0.9	6.9	3.0	1.4
Herald-DigiPoll	9 – 14 Sep 2005	44.6	37.4	4.5	1.3	4.6	2.6	2.3
One News Colmar Brunton	12 – 14 Sep 2005	38	44	6	1.9	5	2.5	1.7
Fairfax Media–Nielsen	13 Sep 2005	37	43	7	1	6	3	1
2005 election result	17 Sep 2005	41.1	39.1	5.7	1.5	5.3	2.7	2.1	0.6
Poll	Date	Labour	National	NZ First	ACT	Green	United Future	Māori	Destiny

1. The Māori Party and Destiny New Zealand were formed in 2004 and 2003, so did not contest the 2002 election
2. News: LABOUR DOWN, NATS UP IN LATEST POLL.. New Zealand Press Association. 1 September 2002.
3. News: Support For NZ PM's Labour Party Rose After July Election. Dow Jones International News. 25 September 2002.
4. News: GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR NATIONAL.. New Zealand Press Association. 27 September 2002.
5. News: NZ's Labour Party Picks Up Support at Expense of United. Dow Jones International News. 30 September 2002.
6. News: Support for Labour stronger than ever.. The New Zealand Herald. 29 October 2002.
7. News: Labour just can't go wrong, gaining four points to reach 51 percent support in the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll.. IRN News. 27 October 2002.
8. News: Hill Cone. Deborah. Voters give cold shoulder to smaller parties.. National Business Review. 25 October 2002.
9. News: The latest TV3 poll confirms a continuing decline in support for National Party leader Bill English.. Dow Jones International News. 28 November 2002.
10. News: ENGLISH TAKES POLL BATTERING AGAIN.. Dominion Post. 28 November 2002.
11. News: NZ First Party Immigration Stance Adds To Tensions – Poll. Dow Jones International News. 18 November 2002.
12. News: LABOUR, UNITED FUTURE GAIN SUPPORT.. New Zealand Press Association. 15 December 2002.
13. News: NZ Herald-Digipoll survey puts Govt on 49.6% support – National 23% – English trails Clark and Peters as preferred PM.. IRN News. 3 February 2003.
14. News: SUPPORT FOR LABOUR SURGES.. New Zealand Press Association. 17 February 2003.
15. News: National Party Posts Minor Rise in Latest NZ Poll. Dow Jones International News. 17 February 2003.
16. News: WAR CASTS SHADOW OVER ECONOMY – POLL.. New Zealand Press Association. 23 March 2003.
17. News: Young. Audrey. English, Brash on level pegging, survey finds.. The New Zealand Herald. 15 April 2003.
18. News: POLL BOOSTS POPULARITY OF BRASH IN PREFERRED PM STAKES.. New Zealand Press Association. 13 April 2003.
19. News: National polling its highest after turbulent few months.. The New Zealand Herald. 19 May 2003.
20. News: LABOUR DOWN, NATIONAL UP IN LATEST POLL.. New Zealand Press Association. 18 May 2003.
21. News: Sutherland. Richard. National loses 2 points in TV3-NFO poll causing further concerns about English's leadership – Labour has 52% support.. IRN News. 19 June 2003.
22. News: NZ Consumer Confidence Rebounded in June – TV3 NFO Poll. Dow Jones International News. 19 June 2003.
23. News: Berry. Ruth. LABOUR SUPPORT 'RISING'.. The Christchurch Press. 16 June 2003.
24. Web site: Electoral Commission registers another party | Scoop News. www.scoop.co.nz.
25. News: PETERS PICKS UP SUPPORT AS PREFERRED PM IN LATEST POLL.. New Zealand Press Association. 13 July 2003.
26. News: Taylor. Kevin. United, NZ First up as National slides.. The New Zealand Herald. 20 August 2003.
27. News: SEABED ISSUE FAILS TO GIVE ENGLISH TRACTION.. New Zealand Press Association. 12 August 2003.
28. News: SUPPORT FOR LABOUR FALLING, POLL SHOWS.. New Zealand Press Association. 17 August 2003.
29. News: Wilson. Peter. GOVT'S POPULARITY DROPS AGAIN.. New Zealand Press Association. 15 September 2003.
30. News: Sutherland. Richard. Herald-DigPol survey shows Labour down 4.4% to 43.3% support – National down 4.5 points on 22.3%.. IRN News. 15 October 2003.
31. News: Tunnah. Helen. GOVT'S POPULARITY DROPS AGAIN.. The New Zealand Herald. 6 October 2003.
32. News: GOVT STEADY, NATS DOWN IN LATEST POLL.. New Zealand Press Association. 14 October 2003.
33. News: BRASH SHOOTS UP POLLS.. New Zealand Press Association. 9 November 2003.
34. News: Berry. Ruth. Williamson on good behaviour bond.. The New Zealand Herald. 15 December 2003.
35. News: NZ Poll Confirms Opposition Party Overtakes Govt. Dow Jones International News. 23 February 2004.
36. News: Dower. Tim. The National Party has rated 32 percent support in a 3 News/TNS poll, Labour has 43 percent, NZ First 8 – ACT 4.2.. IRN News. 5 February 2004.
37. News: Jennings. Alan. Big change of fortune for National at the expense of Labour and NZ First in latest One News-Colmar Brunton poll.. IRN News. 14 February 2004.
38. News: NZ National Party Ahead of Current Govt in TV3 Poll. Dow Jones International News. 4 March 2004.
39. News: NZ's National Party Extends Lead Over Govt in Latest Poll. Dow Jones International News. 22 March 2004.
40. News: Small. Vernon. MAIN PARTIES NECK AND NECK.. The Christchurch Press. 5 April 2004.
41. News: New Poll Shows NZ's Brash Closing Gap on PM – Report. Dow Jones International News. 26 April 2004.
42. News: NZ National Party Maintains Lead Over Govt in Latest Poll. Dow Jones International News. 24 May 2004.
43. News: NZ Govt Claws Back Some of Natl's Lead After Budget -Poll. Dow Jones International News. 21 June 2004.
44. News: Support For NZ Govt Down Despite New Spending – Poll. Dow Jones International News. 2 June 2004.
45. News: Small. Vernon. LABOUR WIDENS LEAD IN POLL.. Dominion Post. 7 June 2004.
46. News: NZ Labour Party Opens Slight Lead Over National -TV3 Poll. Dow Jones International News. 8 June 2004.
47. News: SMALLER PARTIES UP BUT NATIONAL, LABOUR WELL OUT IN FRONT. New Zealand Press Association. 11 July 2004.
48. News: Labour opens lead over National; POLLS: The new Maori Party shows up for the first time with the equivalent of five seats in the House. 4 August 2004. 4 August 2004.
49. News: Poll Puts NZ's Labour Govt Ahead of Natl Party -Report. Dow Jones International News. 16 August 2004.
50. News: NZ's Labour, National parties poll neck-and-neck.. Reuters. 13 September 2004.
51. News: Sutherland. Richard. Herald-DigiPoll shows Labour with 40.8% support, National 36%; ACT 1%; Maori Party 1.5%; NZ First 5%; Greens 3.6%. IRN News. 28 September 2004.
52. News: Small. Vernon. LABOUR BOLSTERS ITS LEAD IN POLLS. Dominion Post. 9 October 2004.
53. News: NZ voter confidence in economy steady – poll.. Reuters. 14 October 2004.
54. News: NZ voters more confident in economy – poll.. Reuters. 15 November 2004.
55. News: Young. Audrey. National has slumped in popularity to 30.4 per cent, giving Labour a 20-point lead on 50.1 per cent in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey. The New Zealand Herald. 1 December 2004.
56. News: LABOUR ENJOYS 14 PERCENT LEAD IN LATEST OPINION POLL. New Zealand Press Association. 4 December 2004.
57. News: NZ Government Extends Lead Over Opposition -Survey. Dow Jones International News. 13 December 2004.
58. News: Garton. Liz. Herald-DigiPoll shows National on 35.3% of party vote, Labour on 45.8%; personal popularity Brash 28.2%; Clark 54.9%. IRN News. 1 February 2005.
59. News: BRASH SPEECH REDUCES POLL GAP. Dominion Post. 4 February 2005.
60. News: NZ voter confidence in economy eases off high – poll.. Reuters. 14 February 2005.
61. News: LABOUR RETAINS HEALTHY LEAD IN POLLS DESPITE GROWING CONCERNS. New Zealand Press Association. 20 March 2005.
62. News: LABOUR AND CLARK BOTH INCREASE LEAD IN LATEST POLL. New Zealand Press Association. 1 April 2005.
63. News: Watkins. Tracy. TAMIHERE TALKBACK DEBUT DELAYED. Dominion Post. 15 April 2005.
64. News: SEVEN-POINT GAP BETWEEN LABOUR AND NATIONAL, NEW POLL SHOWS. New Zealand Press Association. 17 April 2005.
65. News: NZ Govt Maintains Poll Lead; Consumer Confidence Improves. Dow Jones International News. 16 May 2005.
66. News: LABOUR'S LEAD SLIPPING IN NEW POLL. Dominion Post. 17 June 2005.
67. News: Dower. Tim. Fairfax New Zealand-AC Nielson poll shows Labour has lost its once-commanding lead over National. IRN News. 18 June 2005.
68. News: NZ's Ruling Labour Stumbling in Polls 3 Mos Before Vote. Dow Jones International News. 19 June 2005.
69. News: NZ Government Slips Further Behind in Latest Opinion Poll. Dow Jones International News. 18 July 2005.
70. News: LABOUR, NATIONAL LEVEL-PEGGING IN LATEST POLL. New Zealand Press Association. 28 July 2005.
71. Web site: Support For NZ Labour Up 2% To 40% – Latest Morgan Poll Shows. Roy Morgan. 12 October 2013. 18 August 2005.
72. News: LABOUR MAINTAINS LEAD IN LATEST POLL. New Zealand Press Association. 7 August 2005.
73. News: New Zealand Labour Party stretches poll lead to eight percent ahead of election. Associated Press. 22 August 2005.
74. News: Polls Show NZ Opposition National Party Gaining on Labour. Dow Jones International News. 28 August 2005.
75. News: POLL PUTS NATIONAL IN FRONT, TAX CUTS POLICY INFLUENCING VOTERS. New Zealand Press Association. 31 August 2005.
76. News: NZ opposition extends poll lead on governing party 13 days from election. Associated Press. 4 September 2005.
77. Web site: NZ National Party Swing of 16.1% Threatens Clark Labour Government. Roy Morgan. 12 October 2013. 16 September 2005.
78. News: Polls point to cliffhanger New Zealand election. Agence France Presse. 11 September 2005.
79. News: One News Poll: NZ Labour Govt on 38% Support. Dow Jones International News. 15 September 2005.

See also

• 2005 New Zealand general election
• Politics of New Zealand