Opinion polling for the 2004 Canadian federal election explained

Polls leading up to the 2004 Canadian federal election.

Graphical summary

National polls

Evolution of voting intentions at national level
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPBQGPCPolling firmSampleSource
Voting results36.729.615.712.44.3
June 24, 2004333217135Léger± PDF
June 24, 2004343020124SES± PDF
June 24, 200432.631.819.011.24.9Ekos± 1.4PDF
June 23, 2004323117126Ipsos± HTML
June 23, 2004343315135CompassPDF
June 23, 2004343021123SES± PDF
June 22, 2004343121123SES± PDF
June 22, 2004333318115Environics± PDF
June 21, 2004343121104SES± PDF
June 20, 2004342816136Ipsos± HTML
June 20, 2004333318125SES± PDF
June 18, 2004342922105Nanos
June 17, 2004293216127Ipsos± HTML
June 16, 2004323221124SES± PDF
June 16, 2004323419123Nanos
June 16, 2004343516124Léger± PDF
June 16, 2004353417113Compas± PDF
Leaders Debate in English (June 15, 2004)
Leaders Debate in French (June 14, 2004)
June 13, 2004313217126Ipsos± HTML
June 13, 2004333418115SES± PDF
June 10, 2004333418115SES± PDF
June 9, 2004323717105SES± PDF
June 9, 200430341912Ekos± PDF
June 8, 2004333715105SES± PDF
June 8, 2004323116117Ipsos± HTML
June 7, 2004313516116SES± PDF
June 7, 2004333019125Léger± PDF
June 7, 2004323420114Nanos
June 3, 2004323117116Ipsos± HTML
June 3, 200437341793SES± PDF
June 2, 200435321994SES± PDF
June 1, 2004372919115SES± PDF
May 31, 2004353017125Léger± PDF
May 31, 2004362522135SES± PDF
May 30, 2004362620135SES± PDF
May 30, 2004343016116Ipsos± HTML
May 29, 2004343119123SES± PDF
May 27, 200438301811Ekos± PDF
May 27, 2004403116103SES± PDF
May 26, 2004422917102SES± PDF
May 25, 2004412818113SES± PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)

During the 37th Parliament of Canada

After the creation of the Conservative Party

Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPBQGPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
Dissolution of the 37th Parliament of Canada (May 23, 2004)
May 13, 2004402515Ipsos± 2.2[1]
May 6, 20043826165Ipsos± HTML
April 28, 2004402318115Ipsos± HTML
April 24, 2004382617125Leger± PDF
April 18, 2004392919112Environics± HTML
April 8, 2004352818105Ipsos± HTML
March 25, 2004382715105Ipsos± HTML
March 22, 200438261613Leger± PDF
Stephen Harper becomes leader of the Conservative Party of Canada (March 20, 2004)
March 7, 20043826171242IpsosPDF
February 25, 200442321592Ekos± HTML
February 12, 20043924181053Ipsos± PDF
January 29, 20044823151130SES± PDF
January 27, 200449211511Leger± PDF
January 15, 20044819161044Ipsos± PDF
December 29, 200351241582Environics± 1 2
Paul Martin becomes Prime Minister of Canada (December 12, 2003)
Creation of the Conservative Party of Canada (7/12/2003)

Before the creation of the Conservative Party

Last day
of survey
LPCNDPBQGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
November 27, 200343159510144Ipsos± PDF
November 9, 200349121012161SES± PDF
October 23, 200346118411154IpsosPDF
September 2, 20034615813190SES± PDF
June 9, 2003541051117Ekos± 2.5PDF
June 6, 2003441481616Environics± 2.2HTML
June 5, 20034511951415Ipsos± 3.1HTML
Peter MacKay becomes leader of the Progressive Conservative Party (May 31, 2003)
May 25, 2003551081214Leger± PDF
May 23, 2003521071218SES± PDF
April 17, 20035010941413IpsosPDF
March 27, 20034414916152Environics± 2.3HTML
February 20, 200347.317.27.610.714.1Ekos± 3.1PDF
February 11, 2003481471316SES± 3.1PDF
Jack Layton becomes leader of the NDP (January 25, 2003)
January 16, 2003521471114Ekos± 3.1PDF
January 14, 20034315917151Environics± 1.6HTML
December 12, 200241128616170Ipsos± PDF
December 4, 2002471181614Ekos± 2.8PDF
November 3, 2002491371216SES± PDF
September 30, 200244139415151Ipsos± PDF
July 14, 20024113816184Ipsos± PDF
July 2, 2002461281812SES± PDF
June 18, 2002461471714Ipsos± PDF
June 20, 20024314101710Ipsos± PDF
June 9, 2002419101815Leger± PDF
June 6, 2002501181713Ekos± HTML
May 30, 20024313101815Ipsos± HTML
May 29, 2002461381713Ekos± 2.8PDF
April 24, 2002491061916SES± PDF
March 28, 20024510101515Ipsos± HTML
March 24, 20024410913168Leger± PDF
February 21, 200247101012165Ipsos± PDF
December 12, 2001541071116Ekos±
July 29, 200152981018Ekos± PDF
July 23, 2001499911203Ipsos± PDF
July 13, 200148991016Leger± PDF
June 10, 20014611813202Environics± HTML
June 8, 20014891010212Ipsos± PDF
May 31, 2001509101116Leger± [2]
May 30, 200155759195Gallup± [3]
May 27, 200150101011173Ipsos± PDF
April 26, 20014911913153Ipsos± PDF
April 24, 20014310919152Environics± HTML
March 29, 2001487919152Ipsos± PDF
March 10, 2001441119145Ipsos± HTML
January 31, 200149872113EkosHTML
January 15, 20014510823113Environics± HTML
2000 Election40.858.5110.720.8125.4912.191.43

Regional polls

Atlantic Canada

Evolution of voting intentions in the provinces of Atlantic
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
Voting result[4] 43.830.022.63.00.5
June 24, 20044524254Nanos
June 24, 200439332800EkosPDF
June 23, 200444232670IpsosPDF
June 20, 200437411525IpsosPDF
June 9, 200443282540EkosPDF
June 7, 20044229226LégerPDF
May 31, 200441302162LégerPDF
May 30, 20044130262SES± 11.0PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
May 20, 200450212413IpsosPDF
April 25, 20044634191SES± 10.0PDF
March 22, 20043639186LégerPDF
April 17, 2003532105220IpsosPDF
February 20, 200355155232EkosPDF
January 16, 200359113262EkosPDF
January 14, 200349147281Environics± 4.6HTML
December 12, 2002461405340IpsosPDF
July 18, 200253126272IpsosPDF
June 20, 200250159251IpsosPDF
June 9, 200255115227LégerPDF
May 30, 200253139250IpsosPDF
April 2002372212235LégerPDF
March 28, 200249154311IpsosPDF
February 21, 20025772286IpsosPDF
August 29, 200154122311EkosPDF
August 13, 200150195234LégerPDF
July 10, 200151129271Environics± HTML
May 27, 200161115230IpsosPDF
April 24, 2001461211291Environics± HTML
April 200151136263LégerPDF
March 29, 200159611240IpsosPDF

Central Canada

Quebec

During the election campaign
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPBQGPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
Election33.98.84.648.93.23.8
June 24, 200428117513SES± 5.9PDF
June 24, 200432115484[5] Leger± PDF
June 24, 200428117513EkosPDF
June 23, 200429954853IpsosPDF
June 22, 2004251010504EnvironicsHTML
June 21, 20042613650CROP± 4.0PDF
June 20, 200423895333IpsosHTML
June 17, 2004221394872IpsosPDF
June 16, 20043697462CompasPDF
June 16, 200430136483Leger± PDF
June 16, 20043095525SES± 7.6PDF
June 15, 200431157461Leger± PDF
June 13, 2004281174851IpsosPDF
June 9, 200422138543EkosPDF
June 9, 20043214844CROP± 4.0PDF
June 8, 20042498505IpsosHTML
June 7, 200431138462LegerPDF
June 6, 2004301510433SES± 7.5PDF
June 3, 200428136454IpsosHTML
May 31, 20043389462Leger± PDF
May 30, 20042944IpsosHTML
May 30, 200430135493SES± PDF
May 27, 20043611645EkosPDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
In 2004 (before the election campaign)
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPBQGPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
May 20, 20042878504IpsosPDF
May 20, 200434101542CROP± PDF
May 19, 20044043Compass[6]
May 16, 200435107444Leger± 3.0PDF
May 13, 200431101046IpsosPDF
May 6, 20043641IpsosHTML
April 28, 200433884651IpsosPDF
April 25, 200439101041CROP± PDF
April 25, 20043598462SES± PDF
April 24, 20043488463LegerPDF
April 18, 20043788452EnvironicsHTML
April 8, 20043011104522IpsosHTML
March 29, 20043511945CROP± PDF
March 25, 200433864472IpsosPDF
March 22, 20043688453LegerPDF
March 7, 200431684942IpsosPDF
February 26, 200432910481CROP± 4.0PDF
February 25, 20043844EkosHTML
February 22, 20043838CROPPDF
February 19, 2004301094435IpsosPDF
February 12, 200434711471CROPPDF
February 12, 200440583953IpsosPDF
January 27, 2004466739LegerPDF
January 24, 200451510331CROP± 3.0PDF
January 18, 20044768363Leger± 3.4PDF
January 15, 200445363943IpsosPDF
In 2003
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPBQGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
December 17, 2003505935CROP± 3.0PDF
November 27, 2003408385343IpsosPDF
November 25, 2003461038213LegerPDF [7]
November 23, 20035034CROPPDF
October 23, 2003506314352IpsosPDF
September 29, 2003507355CROPPDF
July 9, 20036520EkosPDF
July 6, 200349356Environics± 4.5HTML
June 5, 200352533414IpsosPDF
May 25, 20036262813LegerPDF
April 17, 200350336524IpsosPDF
March 27, 200346838341Environics± 4.5HTML
February 20, 200349935132EkosPDF
January 16, 200355531334Ekos± 6.31 2
January 14, 2003411238341Environics± 3.2HTML
In 2002
Last day
of survey
LPCNDPBQGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
December 12, 20023912347250IpsosPDF
November 24, 200240440385Leger774± 3.4PDF
September 30, 20023811364181IpsosPDF
August 14, 2002381533752IpsosPDF
July 18, 2002461226573IpsosPDF
June 20, 2002391239351IpsosHTML
June 9, 2002376372711Leger± PDF
May 30, 200238123938IpsosHTML
March 28, 20024753835IpsosHTML
March 24, 200246437247LegerPDF
February 21, 200246639171IpsosPDF
In 2001
Last day
of survey
LPCNDPBQGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
December 12, 200146337177Leger± 1 2
December 12, 200158331161Ekos[8] HTML
August 29, 200150533291Ekos± 3.7PDF
August 23, 200147537471IpsosPDF
August 13, 200145537374Leger± 1 2
July 10, 200149433491Environics± HTML
July 8, 2001434412100IpsosPDF
May 27, 2001442392112IpsosPDF
May 21, 2001453381103Leger1 2
April 26, 200143736492IpsosPDF
April 24, 200141640563Environics± HTML
March 29, 200145437492IpsosPDF
March 10, 20014632IpsosHTML
January 31, 20015230Ekos± 5.1HTML
January 15, 200142735654Environics± 4.5HTML
2000 Election44.21.839.90.66.75.61.2

Ontario

Evolution of voting intentions in Ontario! rowspan="2"
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
Voting result44.731.518.14.41.3
June 24, 20043932254Nanos
June 24, 20043932254SES± PDF
June 24, 200438352151EkosPDF
June 23, 200438342062IpsosPDF
June 22, 20044035195EnvironicsHTML
June 20, 200442302062IpsosPDF
June 16, 20043640232SES± PDF
June 9, 20043438216EkosPDF
June 7, 20043536245LégerPDF
June 6, 20043343223SES± PDF
May 31, 200439371851Léger± PDF
May 30, 20043932253SES± PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
March 22, 20044728196LégerPDF
February 25, 20044736152EkosHTML
April 17, 2003589314151IpsosPDF
March 27, 2003501515182Environics± 4.3HTML
February 20, 200352208192EkosPDF
January 16, 200360158171EkosPDF
January 14, 2003531414181EnvironicsHTML
December 12, 20025111611220IpsosPDF
May 30, 2002551115190IpsosPDF
August 29, 200162108202EkosPDF
August 23, 2001531111222IpsosPDF
August 13, 200158981511LégerPDF
July 10, 2001511311241Environics± HTML
April 24, 200154819182Environics± HTML
March 29, 200156818162IpsosPDF
Election 200051.58.30.923.614.41.3

Prairies

Evolution of voting intentions in Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan)! rowspan="2"
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
Voting result30.340.423.42.73.1
June 24, 20043934242SES± PDF
June 24, 20043040264LégerPDF
June 24, 200429373050EkosPDF
June 23, 200432362552IpsosPDF
June 20, 200433371776IpsosPDF
June 17, 200428362943IpsosPDF
June 16, 20043232306SES± PDF
June 13, 200421561642IpsosPDF
June 9, 20043236283EkosPDF
June 7, 20043538216LégerPDF
June 6, 20043542204SES± 11.4PDF
May 31, 200435342642LégerPDF
May 30, 20044135231SES± 11.0PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
May 20, 200432402432IpsosPDF
April 25, 20043331334SES± 11.0PDF
March 22, 20042540259LégerPDF
April 17, 20033827119131IpsosPDF
February 20, 2003472022100EkosPDF
January 16, 2003273123182EkosPDF
December 12, 20022822432140IpsosPDF
July 18, 2002331731163IpsosPDF
June 20, 2002371732140IpsosPDF
June 9, 2002261336187LégerPDF
May 30, 2002272232163IpsosPDF
April 2002302819176LégerPDF
March 28, 2002292229145IpsosPDF
February 21, 2002411918157IpsosPDF
August 29, 2001412118174EkosPDF
August 13, 2001411614254LégerPDF
May 27, 2001402224123IpsosPDF
May 2001302019238LégerPDF
March 29, 2001381830131IpsosPDF

Alberta

Evolution of voting intentions in Alberta
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
Voting result22.061.79.56.10.7
June 24, 200423621320SES± 8.3PDF
June 24, 200423581270EkosPDF
June 23, 200420591164IpsosPDF
June 22, 20042162134EnvironicsHTML
June 20, 2004254517111IpsosPDF
June 17, 200417591175IpsosPDF
June 16, 200432511450SES± 10.6PDF
June 9, 20042557144EkosPDF
June 7, 20043052153LégerPDF
June 6, 200433511420SES± 10.7PDF
May 31, 200428541242LégerPDF
May 30, 200431531150SES± 11.0PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
April 28, 200431461562IpsosPDF
April 25, 200433571000SES± 11.0PDF
April 24, 20042460142LégerPDF
March 22, 20042749177LégerPDF
February 12, 200428501633IpsosPDF
January 27, 2004405352LégerPDF
January 15, 200435471324IpsosPDF
November 27, 2003288630243IpsosPDF
October 23, 2003278134237IpsosPDF
July 6, 200328639261Environics± 6.9HTML
June 5, 20032710434250IpsosPDF
April 17, 2003294439240IpsosPDF
March 27, 2003251240221Environics± 7.1HTML
February 20, 200332832283EkosPDF
January 16, 200335726275EkosPDF
January 14, 200324945211Environics± 4.9HTML
December 12, 2002247248191IpsosPDF
September 30, 2002239348160IpsosPDF
August 14, 200219942246IpsosPDF
July 18, 200219650251IpsosPDF
June 9, 200219655165LégerPDF
May 30, 200228649161IpsosPDF
April 200231634209LégerPDF
March 28, 200226945147IpsosPDF
February 21, 200231434274IpsosPDF
August 29, 200133726304EkosPDF
August 23, 200134828272IpsosPDF
August 13, 2001311020328LégerPDF
July 24, 200129730322Ipsos± 3.5PDF
July 10, 200125837292Environics± HTML
May 31, 200133729256LégerPDF
May 27, 200128831293IpsosPDF
April 26, 200126439301IpsosPDF
April 24, 200124643241Environics± HTML
April 19, 200127738244IpsosPDF
March 29, 200127340273IpsosPDF
January 15, 200130646144Environics± 2.7PDF
Election 200020.95.40.558.913.50.8

British Columbia

Evolution of voting intentions in British Columbia! rowspan="2"
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleSource
Voting result28.636.326.66.32.2
June 24, 200430342772EkosPDF
June 24, 20042838286SES± 7.2PDF
June 23, 200425382682Ipsos± 3.5PDF
June 23, 200424442282IpsosPDF
June 22, 20043134314EnvironicsHTML
June 20, 200432361886IpsosPDF
June 17, 200432341276IpsosPDF
June 16, 2004273525103[9] SES± 8.7PDF
June 9, 20042941265EkosPDF
June 7, 200431312612LégerPDF
June 6, 20043137265SES± 9.2PDF
May 31, 200429322891LégerPDF
May 30, 200434292980SES± 9.1PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
April 28, 2004302526910IpsosPDF
April 25, 200431303280SES± 9.2PDF
April 24, 2004312329133LégerPDF
March 22, 200431372210LégerPDF
January 27, 200431372210LégerPDF
January 15, 200439262610IpsosPDF
November 27, 200332191320115IpsosPDF
October 23, 2003401482396IpsosPDF
April 17, 20034518101880IpsosPDF
March 27, 2003442022123Environics± 6.7HTML
February 20, 200339281969EkosPDF
January 16, 200346231868EkosPDF
January 14, 2003322232122Environics± 4.7HTML
December 12, 200231111331131IpsosPDF
July 18, 200234272586IpsosPDF
June 20, 2002282131146IpsosPDF
June 9, 20023011311711LégerPDF
May 30, 2002331833142IpsosPDF
April 20023213202014LégerPDF
August 29, 2001521119145EkosPDF
August 13, 2001437221315LégerPDF
July 10, 2001421522183Environics± HTML
May 31, 2001498211012LégerPDF
April 24, 2001341632124Environics± HTML
Election 200027.711.32.149.47.32.2

External links

Notes and References

  1. [The Globe and Mail]
  2. News: Richard . Mackie . Canadians split on PM's future . The Globe and Mail . May 31, 2001. A4.
  3. News: Tory popularity rose as Alliance support dropped. new poll suggests. The Canadian Press . June 9, 2001.
  4. Web site: Tableau 8 - Nombre de votes valides, par appartenance politique . www.elections.ca . August 23, 2020.
  5. Including the Green Party of Canada.
  6. News: Tories closing gap. poll shows Liberals may drop to minority government . Winnipeg Free Press . May 21, 2004 . A3.
  7. News: Brian Daly . Two in three Canadians wanted Paul Martin to hold spring election: poll . The Canadian Press . December 7, 2003.
  8. News: Tim Harper . Liberals ahead in every region . Toronto Star . December 14, 2001 . A7.
  9. Of which 3% for the Bloc Québécois which only presents candidates Québec.