Opinion polling for the 2002 New Zealand general election explained

Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 46th New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2002 election by various organisations.

Party vote

Polls are listed in the table below in chronological order. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Individual polls

Poll	Date^[1]	Labour	National	Alliance	ACT	Green	NZ First	United Future	Prog
1999 election result^[2]	data-sort-value="1999-11-27"	27 Nov 1999	38.74	30.50	7.74	7.04	5.16	4.26	N/A^[3]
TV3/CM Research poll^[4]	data-sort-value="2000-02-28"	28 Feb 2000	51	30	5	4	4	3	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2000-02-28"	28 Feb 2000	50	31	4.3	5	4.3	2.1	–	–
TV3/CM Research poll^[5]	data-sort-value="2000-04-18"	18 Apr 2000	53	28	3	4	5	1	–	–
TV3/CM Research poll^[6]	data-sort-value="2000-06-26"	26 Jun 2000	46	34	4	4	5	2	–	–
Herald-DigiPoll	data-sort-value="2000-06-30"	30 Jun 2000	43	32	8	10	3	6	–	–
June 2000 – Dover Samuels resigns from Cabinet pending an investigation into alleged sex crimes committed before he entered politics.
TV3/CM Research poll^[7]	data-sort-value="2000-08-22"	22 Aug 2000	47	36	3	4	5	2	–	–
NBR-Compaq	data-sort-value="2000-09-10"	7–10 Sep 2000	36	41	6	4	7	–	–	–
TV3/CM Research poll^[8]	data-sort-value="2000-10-31"	31 Oct 2000	44	39	5	3	4	2	–	–
TV3/CM Research poll^[9]	data-sort-value="2001-02-20"	20 Feb 2001	49	34	4.5	3.6	4.7	1.5	–	–
TV3-NFO	data-sort-value="2001-04-09"	9 Apr 2001	50	32	3.7	4.2	5	2	0.5	–
NBR-Compaq	data-sort-value="2001-05-05"	5 May 2001	43	32	5	6	6.5	–	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2001-05-14"	14 May 2001	44	41	2	–	6	–	–	–
TV3-NFO	data-sort-value="2001-06-11"	11 Jun 2001	49	31	3.5	2	7	3.3	–	–
8 October 2001 – Bill English is elected leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2001-10-09"	9–12 Oct 2001	46	39	2	3.1	5	3.5	–	–
NBR-Compaq	data-sort-value="2001-10-19"	19 Oct 2001	43	33	3.8	5.2	8	3.6	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2001-11-12"	12 Nov 2001	44	40	4	3	5	2	–	–
TV3/CM Research poll^[10]	data-sort-value="2001-12-17"	17 Dec 2001	45	35	3	3	6	3	–	–
TV3/CM Research poll^[11]	data-sort-value="2002-02-27"	27 Feb 2002	54	30	2.2	3	6	2.2	–	–
April 2002 – Jim Anderton leaves the Alliance and Laila Harré replaces him as leader.
NBR HP-Invent	data-sort-value="2002-06-06"	7 Jun 2002	53	29	0.5	4.5	7.2	3.3	–	1.3
TV3-NFO	data-sort-value="2002-06-10"	10 Jun 2002	56	24	1.2	3.9	9	3.1	<0.5	<0.5
Herald-DigiPoll	data-sort-value="2002-06-10"	10 Jun 2002	49.9	31.2	0.1	4.7	7.7	2.5	0.1	0.7
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2002-06-17"	17 Jun 2002	53	27	0.5	4	9	3	–	2
Herald-DigiPoll	data-sort-value="2002-06-26"	26 Jun 2002	52.1	25.7	0.5	4.4	8.3	3.8	–	2
Herald-DigiPoll	data-sort-value="2002-07-03"	3 Jul 2002	51.2	24.6	0.4	5.7	9.6	4.4	0.1	1.4
TV3-NFO	data-sort-value="2002-07-05"	5 Jul 2002	51	24	1.1	5	10.8	5.7	–	1.1
Herald-DigiPoll	data-sort-value="2002-07-11"	11 Jul 2002	48	24.5	0.4	5.8	10.1	6.4	0.7	1.5
TV3-NFO	data-sort-value="2002-07-11"	11 Jul 2002	48	24	1.2	6.3	7.9	7.9	0.9	0.8
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2002-07-15"	15 Jul 2002	46	27	1	8	9	6	–	1
Herald-DigiPoll	data-sort-value="2002-07-17"	17 Jul 2002	46.7	23.1	0.4	5.5	11.3	8.3	1.1	1.3
TV3-NFO	data-sort-value="2002-07-18"	18 Jul 2002	46	25	1.4	6	9	8	0.7	0.7
Herald-DigiPoll	data-sort-value="2002-07-22"	22 Jul 2002	40.8	23.6	0.4	8.1	6.9	10.2	6.6	1.3
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2002-07-25"	25 Jul 2002	44	21	1	7	8	10	4	0.5
TV3-NFO	data-sort-value="2002-07-25"	25 Jul 2002	43	21	1.4	8	9	8	3.9	1.2
Herald-DigiPoll	data-sort-value="2002-07-26"	26 Jul 2002	38.8	23.2	1.3	8.9	9	9.6	5.4	1.4
2002 election result^[12]	data-sort-value="2002-07-27"	27 Jul 2002	41.26	20.93	1.27	7.14	7.00	10.38	6.69	1.70

Preferred prime minister

Individual polls

Poll	Date^[13]	Helen Clark	Jenny Shipley	Winston Peters	Jim Anderton
TV3/CM Research poll	data-sort-value="2000-02-28"	28 Feb 2000	36	13	-	-
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2000-02-28"	28 Feb 2000	43	16	-	-
TV3/CM Research poll	data-sort-value="2000-04-18"	18 Apr 2000	42	13	-	-
TV3/CM Research poll	data-sort-value="2000-08-22"	22 Aug 2000	31	16	-	-
TV3/CM Research poll	data-sort-value="2000-02-28"	18 Apr 2000	28	14	-	-
TV3/CM Research poll	data-sort-value="2001-02-20"	20 Feb 2001	35	16	-	-
TV3/CM Research poll	data-sort-value="2001-02-20"	20 Feb 2001	30	13	-	-
TV3-NFO	data-sort-value="2001-04-09"	9 Apr 2001	36	11	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2001-05-14"	14 May 2001	37	17	–	3
Poll	Date^[14]	Helen Clark	Bill English	Winston Peters	Jim Anderton
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2001-10-09"	9–12 Oct 2001	41	21	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2001-11-12"	12 Nov 2001	40	19	–	–
TV3/CM Research poll	data-sort-value="2001-12-17"	17 Dec 2001	41	17	-	-
TV3/CM Research poll	data-sort-value="2002-02-27"	27 Feb 2002	41	10	5	3
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2002-06-17"	17 Jun 2002	52	17	4	2
One News Colmar Brunton	data-sort-value="2002-07-15"	15 Jul 2002	48	19	7	2

Electorate polling

Candidate vote

See also

• Opinion polling for the 2005 New Zealand general election
• Politics of New Zealand

Notes and References

1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
2. Web site: 1999 GENERAL ELECTION - Summary of Overall Results . . Wellington . 27 November 1999 . 15 December 2017.
3. United Future was founded in 2000 and Jim Anderton's Progressive Party was founded in 2002, thus neither party contested the 1999 general election.
4. News: Labour rockets up the polls with Clark top choice . . 29 February 2000 . 2 .
5. News: PM, Labour honeymoon continues . . 18 April 2000 . 7 .
6. News: Labour support falls - poll . . 27 June 2000 . 2 .
7. News: Labour retains lead . . 22 August 2000 . 2 .
8. News: Labour dips but still ahead - poll . . 31 October 2000 . 2 .
9. News: Labour further ahead despite controversy . . 20 February 2001 . 11 .
10. News: Latest poll sees Labour maintain lead . . 17 December 2001 . 2 .
11. News: Poll news birthday lift for PM . . 27 February 2002 . 6 .
12. Web site: Official Count Results -- Overall Status . . Wellington . 10 August 2002 . 15 December 2017.
13. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
14. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
15. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
16. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
17. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
18. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
19. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.