Opinion polling and seat projections for the 2024 European Parliament election explained

The European Parliament election is set to take place in June 2024. This article lists national polls for the European Union (EU) election as well as EU-wide seat projections and popular vote estimates.

Polling aggregations

Seat projections

Europe Elects, Der Föderalist and Politico Europe have been presenting seat projections throughout the legislative period. Other institutes started presenting data during the election campaign. All projections make their national-level data transparent, except Politico Europe, which only presents aggregate EU-level data.

Polling aggregator		Date updated	Number of seats	The Left	S&D	G/EFA	Renew	EPP	ECR	ID	NI	Others
				data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"
2024 election	After reorganisation of groups	16 July 2024	720	46	136	53	77	188	78	84 (as PfE)	33+25 ESN	–
	Dynamic^[1]	9 June 2024	720	40	136	54	80	188	82	64	76	–
	Baseline^[2]	9 June 2024	720	39	136	54	78	177	73	58	48	67
PolitPro^[3]		9 June 2024	720	40	139	40	81	174	74	89	43	40
Politico Europe^[4]		6 June 2024	720	32	143	41	75	173	76	67	58	55
election.de^[5]		6 June 2024	720	42	138	58	85	181	82	69	65	–
Cassandra-odds.com^[6]		5 June 2024	720	38	145	57	89	167	84	73	67	–
euobserver^[7]		5 June 2024	720	43	140	52	79	178	89	63	76	–
Europe Elects^[8]		4 June 2024	720	38	136	55	81	182	79	69	76	4
Der Föderalist^[9]	Baseline	3 Jun 2024	720	37	136	57	81	172	79	66	50	42
	Dynamic		720	40	137	58	85	186	80	78	56	–
Euronews^[10]		23 May 2024	720	43	135	54	82	181	80	83	62	–
2019 election	After Brexit		705	40	148	67	97	187	62	76	28	–
	Before Brexit		751	41	154	74	108	182	62	73	57	–

Popular vote projections

Europe Elects has been presenting popular vote projections throughout the legislative period. Other institutes started presenting data during the election campaign.

Polling aggregator		Date updated	The Left	S&D	G/EFA	Renew	EPP	ECR	ID	NI	Others
			data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="color:inherit;background:;"
2024 election		9 June 2024	6.7 %	19.2 %	8.8 %	10.4 %	21.2 %	12.3 %	9.0 %	9.0 %	3.4 %
PolitPro^[11]		9 June 2024	5.6%	19.3%	5.6%	11.3%	24.2%	10.3%	12.4%	6.0%	5.3%
The Economist^[12]		9 June 2024	6.0%	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	22.0%	10.0%	9.0%	7.0%	14.0%
Europe Elects		31 May 2024	6.4%	19.8%	7.7%	11.2%	21.1%	12.2%	8.5%	8.9%	4.2%
2019 election
	Before Brexit		6.5%	18.5%	11.7%	13.0%	21.0%	8.2%	10.8%	7.2%	3.1%

Seats

361 seats are needed for an absolute majority in the European Parliament.

Organisation	Release date	Area	Number of seats	The Left	S&D	G/EFA	Renew	EPP	ECR	ID	NI	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
election.de^[13]	6 June 2024	EU27	720	42	138	58	85	181	82	69	65		43
Europe Elects for EURACTIV^[14]	4 June 2024	EU27	720	38	136	55	81	182	79	69	76	4	46
election.de^[15]	30 May 2024	EU27	720	43	141	57	84	179	81	68	67		38
Europe Elects for EURACTIV^[16]	27 May 2024	EU27	720	39	138	56	86	180	75	68	76	2	42
	23 May 2024	Germany's AfD is expelled from the Identity and Democracy (ID) group.^[17]
election.de^[18]	23 May 2024	EU27	720	43	139	56	87	179	83	80	53		40
Europe Elects for EURACTIV^[19]	16 May 2024	EU27	720	43	134	54	85	182	83	83	54	2	48
election.de^[20]	9 May 2024	EU27	720	40	140	55	89	177	80	84	55		37
Europe Elects for EURACTIV^[21]	28 Apr 2024	EU27	720	44	140	48	86	183	86	84	48	1	43
EM Analytics^[22]	30 April 2024	EU27	720	40	139	55	85	176	84	79	62		37
Der Föderalist^[23]	26 Apr 2024	EU27	720	35	132	51	86	173	81	83	35	44	41
			720	39	134	53	89	181	86	99	39		47
EM Analytics^[24]	22 Apr 2024	EU27	720	39	139	51	86	181	86	77	61		42
election.de^[25]	22 Apr 2024	EU27	720	39	138	52	90	173	80	87	61		35
Europe Elects for EURACTIV^[26]	16 Apr 2024	EU27	720	40	139	52	84	184	82	84	52	3	45
election.de^[27]	8 Apr 2024	EU27	720	39	138	55	86	176	81	85	60		38
Europe Elects for EURACTIV^[28]	28 Mar 2024	EU27	720	47	135	52	87	184	81	82	48	4	49
election.de^[29]	22 Mar 2024	EU27	720	40	139	54	89	176	84	83	55		37
Ipsos for Euronews^[30]	19 Mar 2024	EU27	720	42	136	55	85	177	76	81	68		41
Europe Elects for EURACTIV^[31]	18 Mar 2024	EU27	720	46	135	50	86	183	84	89	43	4	48
Politico Europe^[32]	9 Mar 2024	EU27	720	33	141	48	90	180	87	89	52		39
election.de^[33]	8 Mar 2024	EU27	720	39	142	51	86	171	86	86	59		29
Europe Elects for EURACTIV^[34]	1 Mar 2024	EU27	720	45	140	49	82	181	83	92	44	4	41
Der Föderalist^[35]	EU27	720	35	135	48	85	176	78	85	36	42	41
	37		137	48	89	183	82	101	43		46
Europe Elects for EURACTIV^[36]	19 Feb 2024	EU27	720	44	140	48	85	180	83	92	43	6	40
election.de^[37]	7 Feb 2024	EU27	720	42	138	49	78	176	88	94	55		38
Europe Elects for EURACTIV^[38]	1 Feb 2024	EU27	720	42	140	51	82	180	80	91	49	5	40
ECFR^[39]	23 Jan 2024	EU27	720	44	131	61	86	173	85	98	42		42
Europe Elects for EURACTIV^[40]	15 Jan 2024	EU27	720	37	143	50	84	178	80	93	49	6	35
election.de^[41]	9 Jan 2024	EU27	720	41	141	45	80	179	86	95	53		38
Politico Europe^[42]	9 Jan 2024	EU27	720	33	145	43	86	178	89	96	50		33
Der Föderalist^[43]	EU27	720	33	141	45	86	169	75	89	43	39	28
	35		143	47	91	177	85	108	34		34
Europe Elects^[44]	30 Dec 2023	EU27	720	36	142	49	84	179	81	93	50	6	37
Politico Europe^[45]	11 Dec 2023	EU27	720	33	145	47	87	175	91	91	51		30
Europe Elects^[46]	30 Nov 2023	EU27	720	38	141	52	89	175	82	87	52	4	35
KAS^[47]	29 Nov 2023	EU27	720	42	143	48	87	171	78	79	41	30	35
Politico Europe^[48]	9 Nov 2023	EU27	720	38	143	49	91	179	90	85	45		36
Der Föderalist^[49]	EU27	720	43	137	43	90	170	78	76	37	45	33
	46		138	47	96	178	89	92	34		40
Europe Elects^[50]	31 Oct 2023	EU27	720	45	139	51	92	173	80	76	53	11	34
	12 Oct 2023	PES (S&D's party) suspends Slovakia's Smer–SD and Hlas–SD due to their coalition with the sovereignist SNS party.^[51]
Politico Europe^[52]	9 Oct 2023	EU27	720	40	151	49	89	172	93	82	44		21
Europe Elects^[53]	30 Sep 2023	EU27	720	43	145	52	90	165	86	74	56	10	21
	22 Sep 2023	The European Council approves the new apportionment in the European Parliament from 705 to 720 seats.^[54]
Der Föderalist^[55]	EU27	720	43	147	46	91	162	77	74	36	43	15
	45		147	50	96	171	90	89	32		24
	705	42	144	46	90	157	77	72	35	41	13
		44	144	50	95	165	89	87	31		21
Politico Europe^[56]	7 Sep 2023	EU27	705	42	146	46	91	167	93	76	44		21
Europe Elects^[57]	31 Aug 2023	EU27	720	38	149	53	90	164	83	75	58	10	15
Politico Europe^[58]	9 Aug 2023	EU27	705	45	145	48	89	165	89	77	47		20
Europe Elects^[59]	31 Jul 2023	EU27	705	45	143	49	90	157	82	82	55	12	14
Der Föderalist^[60]	EU27	705	41	136	48	94	160	79	70	36	41	24
	43		137	52	99	167	89	87	31		30
Der Föderalist^[61]	EU27	705	49	137	50	92	162	79	67	33	36	25
	50		137	54	99	172	82	83	28		35
Europe Elects^[62]		EU27	705	51	141	49	89	163	85	64	51	11	22
Der Föderalist^[63]	EU27	705	44	137	42	94	162	78	68	38	42	25
	46		141	46	102	170	81	84	35		29
Der Föderalist^[64]	EU27	705	50	135	42	96	168	78	65	37	34	33
	52		138	47	103	172	82	80	31		34
Der Föderalist^[65]	EU27	705	51	136	44	93	166	79	64	37	35	30
	53		139	50	100	170	83	80	30		31
Europe Elects^[66]		EU27	705	49	142	56	100	158	84	63	46	7	16
Europe Elects^[67]		EU27	705	55	135	53	106	162	81	66	41	6	27
Der Föderalist^[68]	EU27	705	52	127	42	100	169	79	63	35	38	42
	54		130	48	108	174	84	80	27		44
Der Föderalist^[69]	EU27	705	52	134	47	98	170	75	63	27	39	36
	54		137	53	107	175	80	76	23		38
Der Föderalist^[70]	EU27	705	54	133	44	101	165	77	64	31	36	32
	56		136	54	106	168	81	79	25		32
Der Föderalist^[71]	EU27	705	59	139	39	97	157	78	64	37	35	18
	60		143	49	102	159	84	76	32		16
Der Föderalist^[72]	EU27	705	53	139	36	98	158	78	62	45	36	19
	55		142	44	105	160	109	62	28		18
Europe Elects^[73]		EU27	705	49	152	55	99	158	78	62	35	17	6
Der Föderalist^[74]	EU27	705	51	142	39	99	165	73	62	34	40	23
	53		146	43	105	166	102	62	28		20
Europe Elects^[75]		EU27	705	50	155	55	103	146	81	75	36	4	9
Der Föderalist^[76]	EU27	705	50	144	42	96	155	75	72	36	35	11
	52		148	48	107	156	23	120	51		8
Europe Elects^[77]		EU27	705	50	155	51	102	151	81	75	35	5	4
Europe Elects^[78]		EU27	705	50	154	47	94	156	78	75	36	15	2
Der Föderalist^[79]	EU27	705	54	141	42	98	160	70	75	33	32	19
	56		145	48	107	160	22	116	51		15
Der Föderalist^[80]	EU27	705	52	133	45	97	167	71	74	31	35	34
	54		138	49	108	168	23	117	48		30
Europe Elects^[81]		EU27	705	52	144	55	94	156	75	77	34	18	12
Europe Elects^[82]		EU27	705	51	146	58	92	155	76	74	35	18	9
Der Föderalist^[83]	EU27	705	50	125	50	95	167	74	73	33	38	42
	52		130	54	109	167	87	74	32		37
Europe Elects^[84]		EU27	705	52	144	56	93	158	75	74	34	19	14
Europe Elects^[85]		EU27	705	51	151	52	93	159	74	74	32	19	8
Der Föderalist^[86]	EU27	705	52	136	46	96	164	71	73	34	33	28
	54		141	49	109	164	85	73	30		23
	3 Mar 2021	Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group.^[87]
Der Föderalist^[88]	EU27	705	52	135	45	94	184	70	71	21	33	49
	53		141	48	107	184	73	71	28		49
Europe Elects^[89]		EU27	705	55	138	47	97	190	73	72	22	11	52
Der Föderalist^[90]	EU27	705	52	136	47	93	188	67	73	20	29	52
	53		140	40	103	188	73	73	25		48
Europe Elects^[91]		EU27	705	55	136	48	95	195	68	73	23	12	59
Europe Elects^[92]		EU27	705	54	136	48	93	197	70	74	24	9	61
Der Föderalist^[93]	EU27	705	51	127	49	96	193	67	71	21	30	66
	52		136	52	102	193	71	71	28	–	57
Europe Elects^[94]		EU27	705	55	136	49	95	195	71	77	23	4	59
Europe Elects^[95]		EU27	705	55	134	49	96	196	71	75	24	5	62
Europe Elects^[96]		EU27	705	54	134	49	97	198	70	75	23	5	64
Europe Elects^[97]		EU27	705	54	133	48	97	198	71	77	24	3	65
Europe Elects^[98]		EU27	705	55	135	47	98	197	70	77	23	3	62
Europe Elects^[99]		EU27	705	55	140	46	94	193	72	78	23	4	53
Europe Elects^[100]		EU27	705	57	135	51	92	188	72	83	21	6	53
Europe Elects^[101]		EU27	705	56	133	55	99	184	68	85	21	6	51
Europe Elects^[102]		EU27	705	55	130	53	101	182	70	85	23	6	52
	31 Jan 2020	The United Kingdom leaves the European Union.^[103]
Europe Elects^[104]		EU27	705	54	131	52	102	182	70	86	25	3	51
Europe Elects^[105]		EU28	751	53	153	52	103	177	103	82	25	3	24
Europe Elects		EU28	751	49	157	61	107	176	95	80	25	1	19
Europe Elects		EU28	751	46	151	62	115	175	92	78	30	2	24
Europe Elects		EU28	751	48	151	63	118	170	87	79	32	3	19
Europe Elects		EU28	751	47	154	64	116	166	89	80	32	3	12
Europe Elects		EU28	751	48	153	65	117	168	85	79	33	3	15
Europe Elects		EU28	751	46	145	74	119	167	64	80	54	2	22
Redistribution of seats after Brexit		EU27	705	40	148	68	97	187	62	76	27	–	39
2019 European Parliament election		EU28	751	41	154	74	108	182	62	73	57	–	28

Popular vote

The following table shows the projected popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament aggregated on the European level. EU27 excludes the United Kingdom in this context. EU28 includes the United Kingdom.

Organisation	Release date	Area	The Left	S&D	G/EFA	Renew	EPP	ECR	ID	NI	Others	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	23 May 2024	Germany's AfD is expelled from the Identity and Democracy group.
EM Analytics		EU27	7.3%	18.9%	7.5%	10.0%	21.7%	10.9%	12.0%	6.8%	5.0%	2.8%
Europe Elects for Euractiv^[106]		EU27	6.3%	18.3%	7.7%	9.9%	22.9%	11.8%	11.2%	6.6%	5.2%	4.6%
EM Analytics^[107]		EU27	7.0%	18.5%	7.9%	10.3%	22.0%	11.1%	12.1%	6.7%	4.6%	3.5%
Europe Elects for Euractiv^[108]		EU27	5.9%	18.0%	7.6%	10.4%	24.3%	11.0%	10.9%	6.5%	5.4%	6.3%
Europe Elects for Euractiv^[109]		EU27	7.7%	18.4%	8.1%	10.6%	23.0%	11.2%	11.2%	6.0%	3.8%	4.6%
Europe Elects for Euractiv^[110]		EU27	4.8%	18.5%	8.1%	10.4%	22.2%	11.1%	11.6%	7.3%	6.1%	3.7%
Europe Elects for Euractiv^[111]		EU27	5.5%	18.9%	7.3%	9.5%	22.6%	11.6%	11.7%	7.4%	5.2%	3.7%
Europe Elects for Euractiv^[112]		EU27	6.7%	18.5%	7.3%	9.7%	22.9%	11.3%	11.4%	7.1%	5.0%	4.4%
Europe Elects for Euractiv^[113]		EU27	6.8%	18.4%	6.9%	9.5%	22.6%	11.3%	12.3%	5.9%	6.2%	4.2%
Europe Elects for Euractiv^[114]		EU27	5.9%	18.3%	6.8%	10.3%	23.5%	10.9%	12.5%	6.1%	5.5%	5.2%
Europe Elects^[115]		EU27	5.5%	17.9%	7.0%	10.4%	22.8%	11.1%	12.1%	6.2%	6.9%	4.9%
Europe Elects^[116]		EU27	5.7%	18.4%	7.2%	10.7%	22.4%	11.0%	11.7%	6.1%	6.7%	4.0%
Europe Elects^[117]		EU27	5.9%	18.5%	7.5%	10.5%	22.4%	11.3%	11.3%	6.1%	6.5%	3.9%
Europe Elects^[118]		EU27	6.9%	19.1%	7.0%	9.9%	21.3%	11.8%	10.8%	6.0%	7.0%	2.2%
Europe Elects		EU27	6.1%	19.5%	7.1%	10.2%	21.6%	11.8%	10.5%	6.0%	7.0%	2.1%
Europe Elects^[119]		EU27	7.2%	19.5%	6.9%	10.5%	20.6%	11.5%	10.6%	6.4%	6.7%	1.1%
Europe Elects^[120]		EU27	6.9%	18.7%	7.0%	10.4%	21.4%	11.7%	10.5%	6.3%	7.1%	2.7%
Europe Elects^[121]		EU27	7.5%	18.8%	6.9%	10.8%	20.7%	11.7%	9.6%	6.1%	7.6%	1.9%
Europe Elects^[122]		EU27	7.8%	18.2%	7.0%	10.4%	21.4%	11.6%	9.6%	6.0%	7.8%	3.2%
Europe Elects^[123]		EU27	7.3%	19.0%	7.3%	11.1%	21.6%	11.4%	9.0%	6.0%	7.1%	2.6%
Europe Elects^[124]		EU27	7.1%	18.7%	7.3%	11.1%	21.7%	11.5%	9.2%	6.0%	7.2%	3.0%
Europe Elects^[125]		EU27	7.4%	18.5%	7.4%	11.3%	21.5%	11.5%	9.0%	6.1%	6.8%	3.0%
Europe Elects^[126]		EU27	7.1%	18.7%	7.6%	11.5%	21.1%	11.6%	8.9%	5.4%	7.9%	2.4%
Europe Elects		EU27	7.2%	18.8%	8.1%	11.7%	21.2%	11.2%	8.9%	5.5%	7.2%	2.4%
Europe Elects		EU27	8.0%	18.3%	8.1%	12.0%	21.6%	11.3%	8.7%	5.7%	6.1%	3.3%
Europe Elects		EU27	6.7%	20.6%	7.2%	11.9%	20.7%	10.3%	8.8%	5.0%	8.8%	0.1%
Europe Elects		EU27	7.0%	20.4%	7.4%	13.6%	17.9%	10.3%	10.4%	4.8%	6.9%	1.2%
Europe Elects		EU27	6.9%	20.7%	7.2%	13.0%	19.5%	10.7%	10.2%	5.3%	6.5%	1.2%
Europe Elects		EU27	7.3%	20.3%	7.2%	12.0%	20.3%	10.5%	10.3%	5.3%	6.8%	Tie
Europe Elects	9 Jul 2021	EU27	7.2%	17.9%	8.0%	11.8%	21.2%	10.3%	10.6%	5.0%	8.0%	3.3%
Europe Elects	5 Jun 2021	EU27	7.8%	18.0%	9.1%	11.4%	20.6%	10.5%	10.4%	5.0%	7.1%	2.6%
Europe Elects	2 May 2021	EU27	7.9%	18.3%	8.5%	11.3%	20.3%	10.5%	10.6%	5.1%	7.4%	2.0%
Europe Elects	2 Apr 2021	EU27	8.0%	18.7%	8.2%	11.2%	21.6%	10.2%	10.8%	4.9%	6.3%	2.9%
	3 Mar 2021	Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group.
Europe Elects	2 Mar 2021	EU27	7.9%	18.9%	7.5%	11.1%	23.1%	10.3%	10.8%	3.8%	6.6%	4.2%
Europe Elects	2 Feb 2021	EU27	8.2%	18.6%	7.5%	10.9%	24.4%	10.1%	10.5%	3.8%	6.0%	5.8%
Europe Elects	31 Dec 2020	EU27	8.4%	18.9%	7.5%	10.9%	24.1%	10.2%	10.5%	3.6%	5.9%	5.2%
Europe Elects	2 Dec 2020	EU27	8.2%	18.5%	7.7%	10.9%	24.8%	9.5%	10.5%	3.8%	6.0%	6.3%
Europe Elects	31 Oct 2020	EU27	7.6%	18.4%	7.7%	10.8%	25.0%	9.9%	10.6%	4.0%	6.1%	6.6%
Europe Elects	4 Oct 2020	EU27	7.9%	17.9%	7.8%	11.4%	24.4%	9.7%	11.0%	4.1%	5.7%	6.5%
Europe Elects	31 Aug 2020	EU27	8.1%	18.3%	7.4%	11.5%	25.0%	9.6%	10.9%	4.1%	5.2%	6.7%
Europe Elects	14 Aug 2020	EU27	8.0%	18.0%	7.2%	11.5%	25.3%	9.4%	10.8%	3.8%	6.0%	7.3%
Europe Elects	24 Jul 2020	EU27	8.3%	17.9%	7.4%	11.6%	25.7%	9.5%	10.9%	4.1%	4.6%	7.8%
Europe Elects	28 May 2020	EU27	8.2%	18.0%	7.2%	11.3%	25.2%	9.6%	11.1%	4.0%	5.4%	7.2%
Europe Elects	30 Apr 2020	EU27	8.2%	18.5%	7.2%	10.9%	25.3%	9.8%	11.4%	3.9%	4.7%	6.8%
Europe Elects	31 Mar 2020	EU27	8.5%	18.2%	8.0%	10.7%	24.1%	10.0%	11.8%	3.8%	4.9%	5.9%
Europe Elects	29 Feb 2020	EU27	9.1%	18.0%	8.4%	10.9%	22.7%	9.7%	12.5%	3.8%	4.9%	4.7%
Europe Elects	31 Jan 2020	EU27	8.0%	18.6%	8.4%	12.4%	20.5%	12.1%	12.1%	4.0%	3.9%	1.9%
	31 Jan 2020	The United Kingdom leaves the European Union.
Europe Elects	31 Dec 2019	EU28	8.1%	18.8%	8.2%	11.8%	20.9%	12.4%	11.9%	4.2%	3.7%	2.1%
Europe Elects	30 Nov 2019	EU28	8.0%	18.4%	8.4%	12.3%	20.3%	12.0%	12.0%	4.0%	3.8%	1.9%
Europe Elects	31 Oct 2019	EU28	6.5%	17.8%	8.3%	13.1%	20.3%	10.0%	11.3%	4.8%	7.9%	2.5%
Europe Elects	30 Sep 2019	EU28	6.6%	19.5%	8.3%	12.3%	19.6%	9.7%	11.3%	4.8%	7.9%	0.1%
Europe Elects	31 Aug 2019	EU28	6.9%	19.0%	8.7%	12.9%	20.0%	9.6%	11.4%	5.6%	5.9%	1.0%
Europe Elects	31 Jul 2019	EU28	6.6%	19.0%	9.4%	12.8%	19.3%	9.3%	11.5%	5.3%	6.7%	0.3%
Europe Elects	30 Jun 2019	EU28	6.9%	18.9%	10.3%	13.3%	19.1%	9.8%	11.4%	5.1%	5.2%	0.2%
2019 European Parliament election^[127]	26 May 2019	EU27	7.0%	18.9%	11.2%	12.3%	22.6%	8.1%	11.5%	4.3%	4.1%	3.7%
2019 European Parliament election		EU28	6.5%	18.5%	11.7%	13.0%	21.0%	8.2%	10.8%	4.8%	5.5%	2.5%

National opinion polling

Ireland

National polls

Sweden

References

Other for Spain

Notes and References

1. Web site: Projected composition: Members of the European Parliament by political group and member state (excluding post-election shifts in affiliation) . Europe Elects . Europe Elects . 24 June 2024.
2. Web site: Projected composition: Members of the European Parliament by political group and member state (excluding post-election shifts in affiliation) . Europe Elects . Europe Elects . 24 June 2024.
3. Web site: 2024-06-09 . EU-Parliament: Polls and trends for the European Parliament election 2024 . 2024-06-09 . politpro . en.
4. Web site: 2023-12-20 . POLITICO Poll of Polls — European Election polls, trends and election news . 2024-06-06 . POLITICO . en.
5. Web site: Moehl . Matthias . 2024-06-06 . Wahl zum Europäischen Parlament - Prognose Stand 06.06.2024 . 2024-06-06 . election.de . de-DE.
6. Web site: Di Lella. Gianmarco. 2024-05-19 . Chi vincerà le elezioni europee . 2024-05-09 . Cassandra-odds.com . it-IT.
7. Web site: 2024-06-06 . Pollwatch: Final EUobserver update before Sunday's big results night . 2024-06-07 . EUobserver . en.
8. Web site: 31 May 2024 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Chaos on the Right . Europe Elects.
9. Web site: Müller . Eingestellt von Manuel . European Parliament seat projection (May 2024): The last polling numbers – who will win, who will lose, and who will form a majority? . 2024-06-03.
10. Web site: 2024-05-23 . EPP leads European polls while far right makes dramatic gains . 2024-05-24 . euronews . en.
11. Web site: 2024-06-09 . EU-Parliament: Polls and trends for the European Parliament election 2024 . 2024-06-09 . politpro . en.
12. Web site: European Parliament elections tracker: who’s leading the polls? . 2 May 2024 . 15 June 2024 . The Economist.
13. Web site: Moehl . Matthias . 2024-06-06 . Europäische Rechtspopulisten gewinnen - Liberale und Grüne verlieren. 2024-06-06 . election.de . de-DE.
14. Web site: 2024-06-04 . EU elections Projection: Early-June.. 2024-06-04 . euractiv.com . en-EN.
15. Web site: Moehl . Matthias . 2024-05-30 . Zahl der Fraktionslosen im Europaparlament steigt auf Rekordhoch. 2024-05-30 . election.de . de-DE.
16. Web site: 2024-05-27 . EU elections Projection: Late-May.. 2024-05-28 . twitter.com . en-EN.
17. Web site: 2024-05-23 . Far-right ID group expels Alternative for Germany . 2024-05-24 . POLITICO . en-GB.
18. Web site: Moehl . Matthias . 2024-05-23 . Rechte ID-Fraktion nach neuer Prognose nur noch auf Platz fünf. 2024-05-23 . election.de . de-DE.
19. Web site: 2024-05-16 . EU elections Projection: Mid-May.. 2024-05-16 . twitter.com . en-EN.
20. Web site: Moehl . Matthias . 2024-05-09 . Moderate Fraktionen legen in neuer EU-Prognose zu. 2024-05-09 . election.de . de-DE.
21. Web site: EU election projection: German SPD, far-right AfD battle for second place.
22. Web site: 2024-04-23 . Unveiling Pollwatch: A weighted ‘poll-of-polls’ for the June EU elections . 2024-05-16 . EUobserver . en.
23. Web site: Müller . Manuel . 26 April 2024 . European Parliament seat projection (April 2024): EPP far ahead, third place remains contested, Greens regain ground . Der (europäische) Föderalist.
24. Web site: EM . Analytics . 2024-04-22 . EU Observer Pollwatch. 2024-04-22 . euobserver.com . en-EN.
25. Web site: Moehl . Matthias . 2024-04-22 . Das Rennen um Platz drei in Europa bleibt spannend. 2024-04-22 . election.de . de-DE.
26. Web site: Magyar scores three seats but fails to weaken Orbán: EU election projection.
27. Web site: Moehl . Matthias . 2024-04-08 . Zahl der Fraktionslosen im EU-Parlament nimmt zu . 2024-04-08 . election.de . de-DE.
28. Web site: Far-right and liberals continue tight race for third place: EU elections projection.
29. Web site: Moehl . Matthias . 2024-03-22 . Europäische Volkspartei baut Vorsprung leicht aus . 2024-03-22 . election.de . de-DE.
30. Web site: Breaking news. Exclusive Euronews poll projects pro-EU grand coalition straining, but still alive. 19 March 2024 .
31. Web site: Romania's far-right snatches first place, Germany's AfD drops: EU elections projection.
32. Web site: Gutierrez . Rodrigo Ignacio . 2024-03-09 . EU Parliament Seat Projection . en-US.
33. Web site: Moehl . Matthias . 2024-03-08 . Europäische Rechtspopulisten verlieren an Zuspruch . 2024-03-08 . election.de . de-DE.
34. Web site: Centre-right wrestling Socialists for first place in Portugal, Romania: EU elections projection.
35. Web site: European Parliament seat projection (February 2024): EPP extends lead, far-right surge slowed down . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 18 March 2024.
36. Web site: EU elections projection: Le Pen and Meloni soars as Germany veers left with Wagenknecht .
37. Web site: Moehl . Matthias . 2024-02-07 . Prognose zur Europawahl sieht EPP stabil vor S&D . 2024-02-07 . election.de . de-DE.
38. Web site: Griera . Max . 2024-02-01 . EU election flash poll: Conservative ECR on course to snatch liberal Renew's fourth place . 2024-02-03 . EURACTIV . en-US.
39. Web site: Kevin. Cunningham. Simon. Hix. Susi. Dennison . 2024-01-23 . A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections . 2024-01-24 . ECFR . en-US.
40. Web site: Griera . Max . 2024-01-15 . EU election forecast: Far-right consolidates third position, Italy's left gains ground . 2024-01-15 . EURACTIV . en-US.
41. Web site: Moehl . Matthias . 2024-01-09 . Prognose zur EU-Wahl sieht Rechtspopulisten als größte Gewinner . 2024-01-09 . election.de . de-DE.
42. Web site: Bantel . Ivo . 2024-01-09 . EU Parliament Seat Projection . en-US.
43. Web site: European Parliament seat projection (January 2024): Left and Liberals lose, far-right ID group becomes third largest force . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 11 January 2024.
44. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-12-30 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Le Pen's Right-Wing ID Rises to Third Place . 2023-12-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
45. Web site: Hirsch . Cornelius . 2023-12-11 . EU Parliament Seat Projection . en-US.
46. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-11-30 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Record High for ID . 2023-11-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
47. Web site: Wientzek . Olaf . 2023-11-29 . EPP Party Barometer November 2023 . 2023-12-01 . KAS . en-US.
48. Web site: Hirsch . Cornelius . 2023-11-09 . EU Parliament Seat Projection . en-US.
49. Web site: European Parliament seat projection (November 2023): EPP takes big lead – historic shift to the right possible . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 9 November 2023.
50. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-10-31 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Scare for S&D and ECR, Treats for EPP . 2023-10-31 . Europe Elects . en-US.
51. News: Wax . Eddy . Barigazzi . Jacopo . Jochecová . Ketrin . 12 October 2023 . European socialists suspend Robert Fico's Smer party and its ally Hlas . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20231012163715/https://www.politico.eu/article/european-socialists-suspent-robert-fico-smer-hlas-party/. 12 October 2023.
52. Web site: Hirsch . Cornelius . 2023-10-09 . EU Parliament Seat Projection . en-US.
53. Web site: Grischa . Mingo . 2023-09-30 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Meloni's ECR Close to Becoming 3rd . en-US.
54. Web site: European Council Decision (EU) 2023/2061 of 22 September 2023 establishing the composition of the European Parliament . 2023-09-27 . EUR-Lex.
55. Web site: European Parliament seat projection (September 2023): Socialists are catching up. Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 15 September 2023.
56. Web site: Hirsch . Cornelius . 2023-09-07 . EU Parliament Seat Projection . en-US.
57. Web site: Grischa . Mingo . 2023-08-31 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Not Much LEFT . en-US.
58. Web site: Hirsch . Cornelius . 2023-08-09 . EU Parliament Seat Projection . en-US.
59. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-07-31 . EU Parliamentary Projection 2024 . Europe Elects . en-US.
60. Web site: European Parliament seat projection (July 2023): How far will the new Parliament shift to the right?. Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 20 July 2023 . 31 July 2023.
61. Web site: European Parliament seat projection (May 2023): Pre-election skirmishes between EPP and S&D – Greens and Left gain ground . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 25 May 2023 . 29 May 2023.
62. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-04-28 . EU Parliamentary Projection 2024 . 2022-04-28 . Europe Elects . en-US.
63. Web site: European Parliament seat projection (March 2023): EPP lead over S&D is shrinking . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 30 March 2023 . 30 March 2023.
64. Web site: European Parliament seat projection (February 2023): The centre-right extends its lead – could there be a majority without the S&D? . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 3 February 2023 . 3 February 2023.
65. Web site: European Parliament seat projection (December 2022): S&D make significant gains, Liberals fall back . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 8 December 2022 . 9 December 2022.
66. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2022-12-07 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Less Seats for Centre(-Right), More for Centre-Left . 2022-12-08 . Europe Elects . en-US.
67. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: Italian Defeat Prolongs Centre-Left's Plight . Garscha . Mingo . . 1 November 2022 . 3 November 2022.
68. Web site: Wenn an diesem Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Oktober 2022): S&D und Grüne verlieren, Rechte legen zu . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 14 October 2022 . 14 October 2022.
69. Web site: Wenn an diesem Sonntag Europawahl wäre (August 2022): EVP und Grüne legen zu, Newcomer im rechten Lager . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 23 August 2022 . 24 August 2022.
70. Web site: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Juni 2022): EVP erhöht Vorsprung auf S&D, Grüne legen zu. Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 27 June 2022 . 27 June 2022.
71. Web site: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (April 2022): Wie sich der Ukraine-Krieg auf die Wahlumfragen auswirkt . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 26 April 2022 . 3 May 2022.
72. Web site: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (März 2022): Aufstieg der Newcomer. Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 1 March 2022 . 2 March 2022.
73. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: France's Re-Alignment Becomes Europe's . Jukić . Luka Ivan . . 8 January 2022 . 4 November 2021.
74. Web site: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Januar 2022): EVP legt zu, Grüne verlieren, rechte Einheitsfraktion scheitert. Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 4 January 2022 . 6 January 2022.
75. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: Social Democrats Hold Firm as Christian Democrats Flounder . Jukić . Luka Ivan . . 7 December 2021 . 8 February 2021.
76. Web site: Wenn an diesem Sonntag Europawahl wäre (November 2021): S&D macht weiter Boden gut. Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 10 November 2021 . 6 January 2022.
77. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: Centre-Left Takes the Lead for the First Time in Years . Jukić . Luka Ivan . . 4 November 2021 . 4 November 2021.
78. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: Centre-Right, Centre-Left in Tossup for First Place . Jensen . Linus Folke . . 8 October 2021 . 8 October 2021.
79. Web site: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (September 2021): Sozialdemokratie im Aufschwung. Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 14 September 2021 . 20 September 2021.
80. Web site: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Juli 2021): Kommt die große Rechtsfraktion? . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist . 22 July 2021 . 20 September 2021.
81. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: Greens down, ID up . Jensen . Linus Folke . . 9 July 2021 . 9 July 2021.
82. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: May Proves Out To Be a Stable Month . Jensen . Linus Folke . . 5 June 2021 . 9 July 2021.
83. Web site: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Mai 2021): S&D auf neuem Rekordtief, Zugewinne bei den Grünen . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist . 26 May 2021 . 20 September 2021.
84. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: Centre-Left Takes a Hit . Jensen . Linus Folke . . 2 May 2021 . 2 May 2021.
85. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: Historic Setback for the Centre-Right . Jensen . Linus Folke . . 2 March 2021 . 8 April 2021.
86. Web site: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (März 2021): Fidesz-Austritt und CDU-Schwäche lassen EVP abstürzen . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist . 31 March 2021 . 20 September 2021.
87. News: Crowcroft. Orlando. 2021-03-03. Hungary PM Orban's party quits the largest group in European Parliament. Euronews. 2021-07-09.
88. Web site: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Februar 2021): EVP verliert, Newcomer gewinnen. Der (europäische) Föderalist . 3 February 2021.
89. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: Rounding Up the Tumultuous 2020. . 5 January 2021 . 6 January 2021.
90. Web site: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Dezember 2020): Zurück zum Ausgangspunkt . Müller . Manuel . Der (europäische) Föderalist. 9 December 2020 . 2 March 2022.
91. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: The Right-Wing in Retreat. . 2 December 2020 . 6 December 2020.
92. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: Talent-Show Judges, Folk Singers, and Eastern Europe. . 31 October 2020 . 31 October 2020.
93. Web site: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Oktober 2020): Sozialdemokraten verlieren, Liberale und Rechte gewinnen . foederalist.eu . 28 October 2020.
94. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: Second Wave of the Pandemic and Europeans Rally No More . . 4 October 2020 . 4 October 2020.
95. Web site: EU Parliamentary Projection: No Domino-Effect Caused by Brexit in Sight . . 31 August 2020 . 31 August 2020.
96. Web site: EU Parliament Projection: Centre-Right EPP Would Win EU Election . . 14 August 2020 . 21 August 2020.
97. Web site: EU Parliament Projection: One Year After the EU Election Post date . . 29 May 2020.
98. Web site: EU Parliament Projection: One Year After the EU Election Post date . . 28 May 2020 . 29 May 2020.
99. Web site: EU Parliament Projection: Corona Rallies Europeans Around the Flag . . 4 March 2020.
100. Web site: EU Parliament Projection: Government Parties Still Gaining . . 4 April 2020.
101. Web site: European Parliament Projection: Ireland, Thuringia, and the Aftermath . . 1 February 2020.
102. Web site: European Parliament Projection: The EU Parliament Post-Brexit . . February 2020 . 1 February 2020.
103. News: Jamieson. Alastair. Crowcroft. Orlando. 2020-01-31. Sadness and celebration as Britain leaves the European Union. Euronews. 2021-07-09.
104. Web site: 2024 EU election projection . . 31 December 2019.
105. Web site: 2024 EU election projection . . 31 December 2019.
106. Web site: Griera . Max . 30 April 2024 . EU election projection: German SPD, far-right AfD battle for second place. Euractiv.
107. Web site: Eu Observer Pollwatch . 23 April 2024 .
108. Web site: Griera . Max . 16 April 2024 . Magyar scores three seats but fails to weaken Orbán: EU election projection. Euractiv.
109. Web site: Griera . Max . 28 March 2024 . Far-right and liberals continue tight race for third place: EU elections projection. Euractiv.
110. Web site: Griera . Max . 18 March 2024 . Romania's far-right snatches first place, Germany's AfD drops: EU elections projection. Euractiv.
111. Web site: Griera . Max . 1 March 2024 . Centre-right wrestling Socialists for first place in Portugal, Romania: EU elections projection. Euractiv.
112. Web site: Griera . Max . 19 February 2024 . EU elections projection: Le Pen, Meloni soar as Germany veers left with Wagenknecht. Euractiv.
113. Web site: Griera . Max . 1 February 2024 . EU election flash poll: Conservative ECR on course to snatch liberal Renew's fourth place. Euractiv.
114. Web site: Griera . Max . 15 January 2024 . EU election forecast: Far-right consolidates third position, Italy's left gains ground . Euractiv.
115. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-12-30 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Le Pen's Right-Wing ID Rises to Third Place . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
116. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-11-30 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Record High for ID . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
117. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-10-31 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Scare for S&D and ECR, Treats for EPP . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
118. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-09-30 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Meloni's ECR Close to Becoming 3rd . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
119. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-07-31 . EU Parliamentary Projection: The Race for the Top Gets Tighter . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
120. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-06-28 . EU Parliamentary Projection: AfD Polling High Pushes the Right Up . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
121. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-05-31 . EU Parliamentary Projection: One Year to Go . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
122. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-04-30 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Gains Left and Right, Losses In Between . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
123. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-03-31 . EU Parliamentary Projection: Calm First Days of Spring . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
124. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-02-28 . EU Parliamentary Projection: The Big Three Wake Up From Hibernation . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
125. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2023-01-31 . EU Parliamentary Projection: A New Year, New Polls, and a New Projection . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
126. Web site: Garscha . Mingo . 2022-12-31 . EU Parliamentary Projection: A Calm Month Rounds Off a Busy Year . 2024-04-30 . Europe Elects . en-US.
127. Web site: 2024 EU election projection . . 31 October 2020 . 26 November 2020.