Olduvai theory explained

The Olduvai Theory states that the current industrial civilization would have a maximum duration of one hundred years, counted from 1930. From 2030 onwards, humankind would gradually return to levels of civilization comparable to those previously experienced, culminating in about a thousand years (3000 AD) in a hunting-based culture, such as existed on Earth three million years ago, when the Oldowan industry developed; hence the name of this theory,[1] put forward by Richard C. Duncan based on his experience in handling energy sources and his love of archaeology.

Originally, the theory was proposed in 1989 under the name "pulse-transient theory".[2] Subsequently, in 1996, its current name was adopted, inspired by the famous archaeological site, but the theory does not rely in any way on data collected at that site. Richard C. Duncan has published several versions since the appearance of his first paper with different parameters and predictions, which has been a source of criticism and controversy.

In 2007, Duncan defined five postulates based on the observation of data on:

  1. The world energy production per capita.
  2. Earth carrying capacity.
  3. The return to the use of coal as a primary source and the peak oil production.
  4. Migratory movements.
  5. The stages of energy utilization in the United States.

In 2009, he again published an update restating the postulate concerning world energy consumption per capita concerning OECD countries, where previously he only compared with the United States, downplaying the role of emerging economies.

Different people, such as Pedro A. Prieto, based on this and other theories of catastrophic collapse or die-off, have formulated probable scenarios with various dates and social events.[3] On the other hand, there is a group of people, such as Richard Heinberg or Jared Diamond, who also believe in social collapse, but still visualize the possibility of more benevolent scenarios where degrowth can occur with continued welfare.

This theory has been criticized for the way in which the problem of migratory movements is posed and for the ideological orientation of the publishing house that published its articles, the Social Contract Press, which is an advocate of anti-immigration measures and birth control.[4] [5] There are major criticisms on each of the argumentative bases and different ideologies contrary to such approaches such as the Cornucopians,[6] the advocates of the natural resource-based economy,[7] environmentalist positions and the positions of various nations also fail to establish a consistent basis for such claims.

History

Richard C. Duncan is an author who first proposed Olduvai's theory in 1989 under the title "The pulse-transient theory of industrial civilization." Later this theory was supplemented in 1993 with the article "The life-expectancy of industrial civilization: The decline to global equilibrium."[8]

In June 1996, Duncan presented a paper titled "The Olduvai Theory: Falling Towards a post-industrial stone-age Era", adopting the term "Olduvai theory" in place of "pulse-transient theory" used in earlier work. Duncan published a more updated version of his theory under the title "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge" at the 2000 Symposium Summit of the Geological Society of America on November 13, 2000.[9] In 2005, Duncan extended the data set within his theory to 2003 in the article "The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization."[10]

Description

The Olduvai theory is a model that is mainly based on the peak oil theory and the per capita energy yield of oil. In the face of a foreseeable depletion, it establishes that the rate of energy consumption and world population growth cannot be the same as that of the 20th century.

Put differently, Olduvai's theory is defined by the rise and fall of the material quality of life (MQOL) which consists of the rate resulting from the increase or decrease of the production, use and consumption of energy sources (E) between the growth of the world population (P), (MQOL = E/P). From 1954 to 1979 that rate grew annually by about 2.8%, from that date to 2000 it increased erratically by 0.2% per year. From 2000 to 2007 it grew again at an exponential rate due to the development of emerging economies.

In works before 2000, Richard C. Duncan considered the peak of per capita energy consumption in 1979 as the peak of civilization. Currently, due to the growth since 2000 of the emerging economies, he considers 2010 as the likely date of peak energy per capita. But despite that adjustment, he continues to claim that in 2030 that rate of energy production per capita would be similar to that of 1930, considering that date as the end of the current civilization.

The theory argues that the first reliable signs of collapse are likely to consist of a series of widespread blackouts in the developed world. With the lack of electrical power and fossil fuels, there will be a transition from today's civilization to a situation close to that of the pre-industrial era. He goes on to argue that in events following that collapse the technological level is expected to eventually move from Dark Ages-like levels to those observed in the Stone Age within approximately three thousand years.

Duncan takes as a basis for the formulation of his theory data consisting of the following facts:

  1. Data obtained on world energy production per capita.
  2. The development of population from 1850 to 2005.
  3. The carrying capacity of the Earth in the absence of oil.[11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]
  4. Energy utilization stages and their level of growth in United States anticipate global ones, due to their dominance.
  5. Estimation of the year 2007 as the time of the peak oil.
  6. Migratory movements or attractiveness principle.

According to Duncan, the theory has five postulates:

  1. The exponential growth of world energy production ended in 1970.
  2. The intervals of growth, stagnation, and final decline of energy production per capita in the United States anticipate the intervals of energy production per capita in the rest of the world. In such intervals, there is a shift from oil to coal as the primary energy source.
  3. The final decline of industrial civilization will begin around 2008-2012.
  4. Partial and total blackouts will be reliable indicators of terminal or final decline.
  5. The world population will decline in line with world energy production per capita.

Bases for the formulation of the theory

Carrying capacity limit and demographic explosion

See main article: Carrying capacity.

He stipulates that the real capacity of the Earth without oil in the long run is between 500 and 2000 million people, which has been exceeded by a factor of three thanks to an artificial welfare bubble due to cheap oil. He argues that since the homeostatic balance of the Earth is around at most 2 billion people, as oil runs out at least 4 billion people will not be able to be regulated by the system, resulting in a large mortality rate.

Prior to 1800 the world population was doubling at a rate of between 500 and 1000 years, and by that date the world living human population was just under 1 billion.[17] With the first industrial revolution and colonialism, the population in the Western world began to double at a rate just over 100 years, with the rest of the world following soon after, with 1550 million inhabitants by 1900. With the second industrial revolution the world began to double at a rate of less than 100 years, and with maximum oil extraction and the digital revolution it doubled at a rate of about 50 years, from 2.4 billion people in 1950 to 6070 million people in 2000.

The theory not only predicts that the Earth's net load does not allow for the rate of such growth but that its population already exceeded its capacity after 1925. Thus one can see an apocalyptic scenario where the population would slow down in 2012 due to sudden global economic decline and peak in 2015 at around 6900 million (see critiques section), and would never in history grow to these levels again, there being as many deaths as births at any given time (1:1), roughly around the year 2017 or so. Thereafter the number of deaths would exceed the number of births (>1:1) and the world population would begin to contract dramatically with approximately 6.8 billion people remaining by the end of 2020, 6500 million by 2025, 5260 million by 2027, 4600 million by 2030 (reduction between 1800 and 2000 million people in 5 years), until the number of humans stabilizes at a figure between 2000 and 500 million inhabitants at a point between the years 2050 and 2100.

Duncan compares the forecast of his theory with that of Dennis Meadows in his book The Limits to Growth (1972). While Duncan expects the peak population in 2015 to be around 6.9 billion, Meadows expects the peak in 2027 to be around 7.47 billion. In addition, Duncan forecasts only 2000 million inhabitants by 2050, while Meadows estimates 6450 million inhabitants by 2050.

Other estimates similar to Olduvai's theory predict that the population will reach a zenith around the year 2025-2030 reaching a number between 7100 and 8000 million inhabitants and thereafter the population will decrease at the same rate it grew before the zenith describing a symmetric Gaussian bell.[18]

Scholars, such as Paul Chefurka, point out that the Earth's carrying capacity will be defined both by factors such as the level of damage caused to ecosystems during the industrial period (pollution, alterations and even depletion of ecosystems, highly polluting and long-lasting waste and destruction of resources due to possible competition for them), the development of alternative technologies or oil substitutes and the existence of knowledge that would allow the survival of the remaining population in a sustainable manner (such as the rescue of traditional ways of life prior to the industrial revolution).

Principle of attractiveness

See main article: Human migration.

See also: Ecological footprint and List of countries by energy consumption per capita. The formulation of this basis, supported on the work on the dynamics of complex social systems by Jay Forrester,[19] proposes that the variables of per capita natural resource and material standard of living are subordinated to the per capita energy yield of oil. This principle holds that attractiveness is the difference in material standard of living between nations. Thus the US material standard of living in 2005 was 57.7 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per capita while the material standard of living of the rest of the world was 9.8 BOE per capita, there being a difference in consumption of 47.9 BOE equivalent per capita.[20] Put another way, the huge difference in lifestyle and consumption becomes attractive to immigrants.

The new immigrant, upon arriving in that society, adopts the same consumerist lifestyle, further overloading that system. Duncan argues that the greater the immigration the greater the number of population where the differences in the material standard of living of the attracting country will diminish in an equalizing process until that country reaches the world's material standard of living.

This proposition has already been criticized in several parts of the world, because although Duncan insinuates that borders should be closed, he does not stop to consider that the main cause of resource depletion is the consumerist and predatory lifestyle of these attractive countries (see critiques section).

Return to the use of coal as a primary source

The theory proposes that due to the predominance of one nation the rest of the world will follow the same sequence in the implementation of a resource as a primary source. It thus comparatively analyzes a chronology of resource utilization as a primary source between United States and the rest of the world:

Utilization of biomass as a primary source.

Use of coal as primary source.

Use of oil as primary source.

Return to the use of coal as primary source.

According to Duncan, from 2000 to 2005 while world coal production increased by 4.8% per year, oil increased by just 1.6%.

The return to coal as a primary source, another taboo fact due to its high level of pollution, has been muted in the media as has the carrying capacity of the Earth for obvious political reasons, Duncan says.

Energy consumption of the population

Just as the shift from oil to coal as a primary source in the U.S. is marking global changes in advance, the indicator of the level of per capita energy consumption and production over time in the U.S. is also marking that of the rest of the world. Thus, Duncan distinguishes three stages in U.S. consumption that were subsequently reflected in world consumption:

Growth

Stagnation

Final decline or decay

Theory updates

2009 update

After criticism received for the discrepancy shown by the United States per capita energy consumption curve, which tends to decrease, concerning the world curve, which has tended to increase extraordinarily after 2000, Duncan published an update in 2009 of his theory where he compares a curve of the OECD members (30 countries) relative to the curve of the rest of the non-OECD world (165 countries) in which Brazil, India, and China are included.

In this new paper on the various peaks of per capita energy consumption in the world, Duncan concludes the following:

In this new scenario, it forecasts that the United States average standard of living or energy per capita would fall by 90% between 2008 and 2030, OECD levels would fall by 86% and the level of non-OECD countries would fall by 60%. The average standard of living in the OECD would catch up with the average level of the rest of the world by 2030 standing at 3.53 barrels of oil equivalent per capita.

Societal scenarios according to the theory

Pedro A. Prieto, one of the Spanish-language specialists on the subject, has gone so far as to outline a probable scenario of societal collapse based on aspects of this theory.

Crisis of the Nation-State

Wealthy nations would suffer increased insecurity, and what had been democratic societies would become totalitarian and ultraconservative societies where the population itself would demand outside resources and increased security. It is possible that before the great final die-off, large developed nations would dispute scarce resources in a sort of World War III, without ruling out scenarios similar to the final solution or nuclear war. Others argue that such a war, if it were to happen, would be an intercapitalist war involving three blocks of civilizations.[22] The first would be constituted by the Western civilization, the second by the Orthodox civilization as well as Sinic, and a third block formed by the Islamic civilization. Japan and India would play a major role in such a war as they define their position.[23]

If some nations survived, lack of resources could trigger famines in large urban centers forcing widespread looting, and governments would issue decrees and martial laws restricting social freedoms and eliminating property rights to keep the starving population at bay. In the face of permanent shortages, governments would impose rationing that would fall short of the required minimums which would cause the very ones imposing force to plunder for their profit, this would be the first symptom of the fading of the states.

In a major economic crisis, the value of fiat money could plummet, and people might start using precious metals like gold and silver instead. But eventually, even those metals could become hard to come by. Some experts think that humankind could end up in a situation where a necessity like a loaf of bread might be worth as much as something more extravagant, like a rugged off-road vehicle. The dominant minorities and military forces would plunder for themselves, and form small dictatorships and kingdoms within what were once great nations. On the other hand, the "great masses of the disinherited" would form disorganized groups of very unstable characters that would act violently and chaotically to take scarce resources. Between one and the other, the conflict would be served and in the end, both would succumb like the rest of the population.

Survivor's profile

It is estimated that cities with more than twenty thousand inhabitants would be very unstable, having better life expectancy in the first place those societies of hunters and gatherers in the Amazon, the Central African jungles, those of Southeast Asia, the Bushmen, and the aborigines in Australia. In second place of survival would be the fairly homogeneous nuclei of three hundred to two thousand inhabitants with an agricultural lifestyle close to places with uncontaminated water resources, inaccessible and hundreds of kilometers away from the large cities and from the hordes of starving people that would exude these cities or from the decaying military forces that would engage in looting.

In the end there could also be a huge number of small agricultural villages vying for the few privileged places, with only those villages surviving that the land carrying capacity would allow.

Other visions

Pedro A. Prieto himself speculates that war scenarios similar to World War III or other types of destructive war conflicts would be less likely to occur if the social collapse is rapid, such as the one predicted by Olduvai's theory. The difference between scenarios is that the majority of the population, contained in the cities, dies of famine in the rapid collapse, while in the slow collapse the war would spread to the safest areas, ranging from large cities to small, isolated rural communities.

The conjectures of those who opine on the possibility of a post-industrial era are spread across a spectrum ranging from scenarios of rapid and catastrophic social collapse to scenarios of slow and benevolent collapse, and even scenarios where they still envision degrowths with continued welfare.

Catastrophic collapse or die-off

The first group, the pessimists, is framed by the same Olduvai theory of Duncan and other works such as the die-off[24] or catastrophic collapse proposed by David Price,[25] Reg Morrison[26] and Jay Hanson.[27] [28] [29] They usually invoke several determinisms such as strong, genetic, and energetic determinism (Leslie A. White's Basic Law of Evolution)[30] to announce the inevitable collapse that will lead to the decomposition of civilized life ruling out the possibility of a peaceful decline.

Smooth decline or "prosperous downhill path"

Among those who predict slow and benevolent collapse scenarios where the degrowth option with continuity of the welfare state we can mention the "prosperous way downhill" of Elizabeth and Howard T. Odum,[31] the end of suburbanization and the return to ruralization proposed by James Kunstler,[32] societies that can still choose to save themselves or fail proposed by Jared Diamond and Richard Heinberg's "gradual shutdown" option.[33]

Heinberg, in his book "Shutdown: Options and Actions in a Post-Coal World", proposes the four possible paths that nations could take in the face of coal and oil depletion:

The Renaissance of utopias

These are visions where collapse is both an outcome and an objective. As in the 19th century, and at the beginning of the industrial era, romanticism and the utopian movements arose, again and in the face of the prediction of a collapse of the industrial era, new hatching of utopian visions is registered. This renaissance advances in the opposite direction to the decline of sociological theories which can no longer provide adequate solutions due to the translimitation situation.

For Joseph Tainter, a collapsing complex society is suddenly smaller, simpler, less stratified, and with fewer social differences.[34] This situation, according to Theodore Roszak, evokes the utopian dogma of the old environmentalist program of reducing, slowing down, democratizing, and decentralizing.[35]

According to Ernest Garcia, many of these proponents are scientists engaged in areas ranging from the ecologist discipline to geology, computer science, biochemistry, and evolutionary genetics, far removed from the study of the social sciences. Among the most palpable recent utopian movements are anarchoprimitivism,[36] deep ecology, and techno-utopias such as transhumanism.

Critiques and positions on the theory

Criticism of the basis of the argument

Criticism of the limit of carrying capacity and population explosion

This forecast also differs from that of a 2004 United Nations report where estimates of world population development from 1800 to 2300 were calculated, with the worst-case scenario being that where world population reaches a peak of 7500 million between 2035-2040, subsequently reducing to 7000 million by 2065, 6000 million by 2090 and 5500 million approximately by the year 2100.

A report issued in 2011 by the United Nations Population Division states that on October 31, 2011 officially the world's population would reach 7 billion[37] and in the year 2019 it was estimated a total population of 7.8 billion people.[38] All contradicting Duncan's estimate that by 2015 there would be around 6.9 billion living humans in the world population. However, recent times have seen a decline in population growth, albeit due to the increasingly common decision to have fewer children or discard parenthood due to cultural and social factors rather than the deaths caused by famine and disease mentioned in the theory.[39] [40] Because of these factors China abolished its one-child policy[41] and in several places around the world their governments offer incentives to have children.[42]

Criticism of the principle of attractiveness

Of the critics who object to some point of the theory, those who criticize the xenophobic and racist cultural biases that are reflected to a greater extent on the principle of attractiveness stand out. Pedro A. Prieto criticizes the proposal of closing borders to immigrants, but not the closure to the entry of depredated resources that end up serving the high US consumption. Nevertheless, he concludes that the more general tenets of the theory such as peak oil, land carrying capacity, and a return to coal as a primary source are feasible to some degree.

Many of Richard C. Duncan's works have been published by the Social Contract Press, an American publishing house founded by John Tanton and directed by Wayne Lutton. This publishing house is an advocate of birth control and the reduction of immigration, as well as emphasizing issues such as culture and the environment covering everything from the point of view of the political right. Among its most controversial publications is the book The Camp of the Saints by French author Jean Raspail, causing such publisher to be described by the Southern Poverty Law Center as a "hate group" that "publishes a series of racist works."

Critics of the peak oil estimate

Some positions speak from the peak oil theory may be a hoax, as argued by Lindsey Williams (2006),[43] [44] to that of different governments, social organizations or private companies that predict the peak at dates ranging from two years before to forty years after the date proposed by Duncan and with very different behaviors in the production curve.

The abiogenic petroleum origin theory argument, proposed since the 19th century, holds that natural petroleum formed in deep coal deposits, perhaps dating back to the formation of the Earth. This would therefore prove that fossil fuel reserves are more numerous, according to geophysicist Alexander Goncharov of the Carnegie Institution in Washington, who simulated in 2009 the conditions of the mantle with a diamond probe and a laser creating from methane other molecules such as ethane, propane, butane, molecular hydrogen and graphite.[45] [46] Goncharov says all estimates of peak to date have been wrong, so believing in peak oil is unreliable and asserts that oil companies could look for new abiotic deposits.

Criticism of the return to coal

Another data that can be observed and that does not correspond with the prediction that coal replaced oil in 2005 differs from other reports such as the EDRO website, where for the year 2006 oil still represented 35.27% as a source of consumption, while coal still represented 28.02%, although the same page admits the increasing use of coal over oil. Similarly on the BP Global page, in its energy graphs tool mode, it can be seen that within the year 2007, oil consumption had a slight decrease from 3939.4 Mtoe to 3927.9 Mtoe. Yet coal consumption during the same period rose from 3194.5 Mtoe to 3303.7 Mtoe.[47]

Critiques on per capita energy consumption

Duncan's articles assume that peak per capita energy was 11.15 bep/c/yr in 1979, but other data from the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA) show that since that date there has been an increase in that figure to 12.12 bep/c/yr after 2004.[48] [49] This is in contradiction with the postulate of the theory that energy per capita does not grow exponentially from 1979 to 2008.

TheOilDrum.com page argues that a true peak in per capita energy consumption of around 12.50 bep/year was observed between 2004 and 2005 based on data from the United Nations, British Petroleum and the International Energy Agency. These proponents mention that Duncan relied primarily on the per capita energy consumption of oil, but with notable omissions of the growth in per capita energy consumption of coal since 2000, attributed to the Asian emergency, and of the uninterrupted growth of natural gas since 1965.

They point out that the civilizational peak was not in 1979 but at a date after 2004 and with a duration of industrial civilization between 1950 and 2044.[50] They also add that if other resources are not so dependent on the behavior of oil consumption probably the civilizational duration will be much longer than a hundred years.[51]

After the reliability of the postulate that the rest of the world was following in the footsteps of the United States in the behavior of per capita energy consumption dynamics was challenged, in 2009 he published a new article called "Olduvai's Theory: Towards the Re-Equalization of the World Standard of Living", in which he compared the behavior of world per capita consumption with that of the most developed countries (OECD). In that article, based on a March 2009 OECD report of the composite leading indicator for China, India, and Brazil, he claims that world per capita energy consumption would start to decline, however, a new OECD composite leading indicator report in February 2010 sees a huge recovery, which contradicts Duncan's assertion.

Political and ideological criticisms

Ecologist criticism

Social ecologists and international associations such as Greenpeace are more optimistic, pinning their hopes on the alternative energies that neo- Malthusians despise such as geothermal energy, solar energy, wind energy and others with low or no pollution,[52] but reject fusion energy, as they consider it potentially polluting.[53] They say that data such as population growth are counted without taking into account the scenarios opened up by a large number of social and technological changes to solve problems, such as alternative energies and radical lifestyle changes that can reduce the effects that such a theory predicts. In contrast, market ecologists claim that such changes will occur by forcing them on consumers through the use of the laws of supply and demand.[54]

Meanwhile, anarcho-primitivists and deep ecologists see this catastrophist scenario as a painful path to which civilization is leading us. Thus, they tend to see civilizational collapse as an inevitable outcome as much as a goal to be reached.

Left-wing criticism

Some libertarians, anarchists, and socialists think that these types of theories are lies or exaggerations that benefit economic speculation and that they have the purpose of selling more expensive and easily controllable resources that are depleted or scarce, to perpetuate the free market game and the ruling classes.[55]

Jacque Fresco mentions that energy resources are not only inappropriate, but also that there are other very abundant energy sources that the social elites could not easily control because they are not speculable, since their reserves would be virtually inexhaustible in no less than 4000 years at the current rate of consumption, and this is only counting the case of geothermal energy.[56]

He has also created The Venus Project in supposed opposition to the current capitalist economic model based on monetary gain.[57]

Already some time ago there was a wide movement on the web to check the movement and, above all, the figure of Jacques Fresco. From the results, we can infer a possible fraud on Jacques Fresco's shares.[58]

In the meantime, authors such as Peter Lindemann or Jeane Manning,[59] [60] [61] add that there are a number of alternatives for obtaining and distributing energy freely, which if employed, would end the capitalist model of hoarding procurement and distribution. This has led them to formulate a conspiracy theory for the suppression of free energy. Prominent among such forms of free and free energy distribution is the wireless power transfer devised by Nikola Tesla.

In turn, all authors of such arguments about alleged conspiracies, see as an agenda of the elitists the formulations of peak oil, warmongering ideas, catastrophism, and neo-Malthusianism.[62]

Right-wing criticism

Cornucopians are libertarians who argue that population growth, resource scarcity, and its polluting potential are exaggerations or lies, such as peak oil or the devastating environmental effect of coal. They argue that the same laws of the market would solve such problems if they were real.[63] [64]

The main theses defended by cornucopians are usually optimistic and pragmatic. Meanwhile, others consider them conservative, moralistic, and exclusionary. These theses consist of the following points:

Criticism and national positions

Conservatives, traditionalists and nationalists focus their positions only on temporal benefit from the ethnocentric or anthropocentric point of view without accounting for adverse effects to the environment,[67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] and do not usually outright deny peak oil or Olduvai's theory, but usually omit some points or all of the theory as a form of institutional denial.[73] It is easy, and in fact according to theory, it predicts that most countries in the world will take this line and move from oil to coal or nuclear power like United States or China without caring about the social or ecological consequences.[74] [75]

An argument in favor of the positions of the various countries, especially China and the United States, is that while there is a shift from oil to coal, coal is beginning to be used in a non-polluting way through integrated gasification combined cycle,[76] although their rate of energy return may be lower than doing it in a polluting way.

Another argument in favor is the cooperation of China, India, Japan, United States and Europe in the ITER project to demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of nuclear fusion,[77] [78] although participation from some countries has been intermittent.

If fusion energy were possible, the energy potential of the deuterium contained in all the planet's seas, rivers and lakes would be equivalent to approximately 1,068 x 109 times the world's oil reserves in 2009,[79] [80] [81] [82] i.e., each cubic meter of water on land would be equivalent to 150 tonnes of oil in energy content.[83]

At the world "consumption rate" of 2007 this would equate to an approximate duration of 17.5 billion years of modern industrial civilization before this resource could be exhausted assuming a constant population of 6.5 billion people not growing and no economic growth.[84] In reality the current system is based on economic, productive, demographic, material, or energy growth, and this growth rate is usually measured on an annualized basis.[85] For example, at a growth rate of 2% per year the energy consumption of oil would be doubling every 34.65 years and, at the end of 1220 years, as much energy would be consumed as is available in all the seas in the form of deuterium to perform nuclear fusion.[86] At a growth rate of 5% per year all the deuterium would be used up in 488 years,[87] and at a growth rate of 11.4% per year in only 214 years.[88]

Some positions and several developed countries have opted for the non-anthropogenic global warming or solar-origin version, seeing the environmentalist warnings as an exaggeration.[89] [90] Other countries, the Third World countries, see the depletion theories and the international environmental agreements as measures imposed by the First World countries to curb their development.

See also

Notes

  1. Until a few decades ago, special importance was given to the role of hunting in the subsistence of the first humans, and a hypothesis was put forward in which hominids were unspecialized hunters who took their prey to a base camp where they shared food. Revision of these ideas has been severe, especially since the 1968 international colloquium, Man the Hunter. Possibly Oldowan toolmakers were just foragers and scavengers.
  2. Duncan, R. C. (1989). Evolution, technology, and the natural environment: A unified theory of human history. Proceedings of the Annual Meeting, American Society of Engineering Educators: Science, Technology, & Society, 14B1-11 to 14B1-20.
  3. Web site: Pietro . Pedro A. . El libro de la selva . Crisis energética . 30 March 2024 . Spanish . 8 September 2004 .
  4. Web site: Pietro . Pedro A. . La teoría de Olduvai: El declive final es inminente . Crisis Energética . 30 March 2024 . Spanish . 14 February 2007 .
  5. Southern Poverty Law Center . 2001 . Anti-Immigration Groups . Southern Poverty Law Center, Intelligence Report . 101 . 2022-06-03 . 2022-06-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220618020051/https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/intelligence-report/2001/anti-immigration-groups . live .
  6. Book: Chang . Man Yu . ¿Sustentabilidad?: Desacuerdos sobre el desarrollo sustentable . Foladori . Guillermo . Pierri . Naína . Miguel Ángel Porrua . 2005 . 9707016108 . 219 . spanish . According to the Cornucopians, in order to stop an activity potentially harmful to the physical environment or human health, irrefutable scientific evidence is necessary, which costs a lot of time and money and, for this reason, mere prevention may not justify the very high social cost perpetrated..
  7. Web site: Fresco . Jacque . Zeitgeits: The Movie - Transcript . At present, we don't have to burn fossil fuels. We don't have to use anything that would contaminate the environment. There are many sources of energy available. . 2022-06-03 . 2010-05-09 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100509202135/http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/transcript.htm . live .
  8. Duncan, R. C. (1993). The life-expectancy of industrial civilization: The decline to global equilibrium. Population and Environment, 14(4), 325-357.
  9. Duncan, Richard C. (2000). "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge"
  10. Duncan . R. C. . Winter 2005–2006 . The Olduvai Theory . The Social Contract . 16 . 2.
  11. Web site: Chefurka . Paul . 2007 . Population, The Elephant in the Room . Industrial agriculture as practiced in the 20th and 21st centuries is supported by three legs: mechanization, pesticides/fertilizers and genetic engineering. Of those three legs, the first two are directly dependent on petroleum to run the machines and natural gas to act as the chemical feedstock... . 2022-06-03 . 2022-06-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220618020054/http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html . live .
  12. News: Hayden . Howard C. . 2004 . The Solar Fraud: Why Solar Energy Won't run the World . Vales Lake Publishing . Pueblo West . The Earth's [living human] population has far exceeded the number that solar sources could sustain. Likewise, the agricultural technology that existed just a century ago could not possibly feed a population of billions. For those who long for the glorious old days of a population below one billion, it is useful to point out that the only way to this end is the death of many billions of those now alive, even if no children were born in the next thirty years..
  13. News: McCluney . R. . 2004 . The Fate of Humanity . Vales Lake Publishing . Pueblo West . My warning for today: we are systematically ignoring the life support system of planet Earth. We have exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet by a factor of 3. For everyone to live as Americans do, it would take three Earths. . 2022-06-18 . 2018-04-19 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180419013911/http://www.futureofhumanity.org/ . live .
  14. News: Grant . L. . 2005 . The collapsing bubble: Growth and Fossil Energy . Seven Locks Press . Santa Anna . The population of the less developed world has grown by two-thirds since 1950 and was poor in 1950. The need for a fundamental change in the ratio of resources to people in poor countries can, by itself, justify an optimal world population figure of one billion. Barring a catastrophe, it could take centuries to reach such figures, even with a determined global effort..
  15. News: Pfeiffer . Dale Allen . 2006 . Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture . New Society Publishers . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20220607020524/https://newsociety.com/ . 2022-06-07 . 2022-06-18 . 0865715653 . Some studies suggest that without fossil fuel-based agriculture, the U.S. would only be able to support about two-thirds of its current population. For the planet as a whole, the sustainable figure is thought to be around two billion..
  16. News: Thompson . P. . 2006 . The Twilight of the Modern World: The Four Stages of the Post-oil Breakdown. . https://web.archive.org/web/20100205062457/http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/ . 5 February 2010 . Sooner or later, all remnants of our society will have vanished, turned into ruins to rival those of the Aztecs and Mayans. By then, all those who have been unable to convert to a sustainable, self-sufficient way of life may have perished, leaving only those living in independent communities to carry on the human story. The human population could fall to as few as one billion, scattered in farmland oases among deserts of buildings, rusting vehicles, and jungles..
  17. Web site: US Census Bureau . Historical Estimates of World Population . https://web.archive.org/web/20110102201303/http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html . 2 January 2011 .
  18. SIU Edwardsville, The End of World Population Growth
  19. Book: Forrester . Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester. . Wright Allen Press . 1975 . Cambridge . 275–276 . The attractiveness principle states that, for any given class of population, all geographic areas tend to be equally attractive. Or perhaps more realistically put, all areas tend to become equally unattractive. Why do all areas tend toward equal attractiveness? I use the word "attractiveness" to qualify any aspect of a city that contributes to its desirability or undesirability. Population movement is an equalizing process. As people move to a more attractive area, they drive up prices and overburden employment opportunities, environmental capacity, available housing and public services. In other words, the growing population reduces all the characteristics of an area that was initially attractive..
  20. The energy contained in a barrel of oil is equivalent to 1.46 x 106 Kcal or equivalent to one year of energy consumption of a forestry worker in the tropics (4,000 Kcal/day according to Apud and collaborators, 1999). However, for Matthew Savinar one barrel of oil is equivalent to 25,000 man-hours and for Roscoe Bartlett 12 workers working for a year.
  21. Web site: OECD . 2010 . OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release . Paris . 2022-06-03 . 2022-06-03 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220603184951/https://www.oecd.org/centrodemexico/medios/44560495.pdf . live .
  22. Web site: Freytas . Manuel . 2009-05-18 . Sepa porqué usted está parado sobre la tercera guerra mundial . 2024-03-30 . IAR Noticias . Spanish.
  23. Book: Huntington, Samuel P. . . 1996 . 0-684-81164-2 . New York, United States . 1996 . 185 .
  24. DieOff.org The language of ecology defines "overshoot", "crash" and "die-off" .
  25. Price . David . 1995 . Energy and Human Evolution . Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies . 16 . 4 . 301–319. 10.1007/BF02208116 .
  26. Book: Morrison, Reg . The spirit in the gene: humanity's proud illusion and the laws of nature . 1999 . Comstock Pub. Associates, a division of Cornell University Press . 978-0-8014-3651-2 . Ithaca London.
  27. Web site: Crisisenergetica.org . 2005 . Articles translated from the Die Off website, created and maintained by Jay Hanson. . 2022-06-03 . 2021-11-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211118092923/https://www.crisisenergetica.org/staticpages/index.php?page=20031016175841470 . live .
  28. Hanson, J. (2001). Synopsis
  29. Hanson, J. (2001). Maximum power
  30. Web site: Decrease.com . 2007 . White's Law . https://web.archive.org/web/20111118183055/http://www.decrecimiento.info/2007/03/ley-de-white_19.html . 18 November 2011 . Leslie A. White formulates the "Basic Law of Evolution" in which he emphasizes the levels of energy use as determinants of cultural evolution. [...] As long as other factors are held constant, culture evolves as the amount of energy available per head per year grows, or as the efficiency of the means of making that energy work grows..
  31. Odum, H.T. and E.C. Odum (2001). A prosperous way down: Principles and policies. Boulder, University Press of Colorado.
  32. Book: Kunstler, James Howard . James Howard Kunstler . . . 2005 . 9781555846701 . New York, United States.
  33. Heinberg, Richard. China or the United States: which nation will maintain leadership?
  34. Tainter, J. (1995). The collapse of complex societies. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  35. Roszak, T. (1993). The Voice of the Earth: An Exploration of Ecopsychology. London, Bantam.
  36. Kimble, T.; Zerzan, J.; Jensen, J.; Yu Koyo Peya, Open Source Movies.
  37. Web site: Lostiempos.com . 2011 . World population reaches 7 billion . 2022-06-03 . 2013-04-11 . https://archive.today/20130411071759/http://www.lostiempos.com/diario/actualidad/vida-y-futuro/20110712/la-poblacion-mundial-llega-a-7-mil-millones_133340_270906.html . live .
  38. Book: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs . World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights . United Nations . 2019 . New York . 2022-06-03 . 2020-05-12 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200512070724/https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf . live .
  39. News: BBC News Mundo . 2020 . 6 países donde se reducirá drásticamente la población y uno donde crecerá (y qué consecuencias traerán estos cambios) . spanish . BBC News Mundo . 2022-06-03 . 2022-06-09 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220609015636/https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-53454187 . live .
  40. News: Jiménez . Javier . 2020 . El mundo vacío: cada vez hay más expertos convencidos de que el crecimiento de la población mundial está a punto de hundirse . spanish . Xataka . 2022-06-03 . 2021-06-23 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210623122754/https://www.xataka.com/investigacion/crecimiento-poblacion-mundial . live .
  41. News: BBC News Mundo . 2015 . China anuncia el final de su política de hijo único . spanish . BBC News Mundo . 2022-06-03 . 2022-04-03 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220403193418/https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias/2015/10/151029_china_politica_un_hijo_finaliza_mr . live .
  42. News: Wilt . Chloe . 2019 . The Government Will Pay You to Have Babies in These Countries . Money.com . 2022-06-03 . 2022-05-06 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220506191321/https://money.com/government-pays-have-a-baby-low-birth-rate/ . live .
  43. Lindsey Williams (2006) Peak Oil Hoax, Reformation.org.
  44. Lindsey Williams is a Baptist church minister in Alaska who posits the conspiracy theory that peak oil is a form of enrichment directed by "social elites" through the methods of speculation and bankruptcy.
  45. Kolesnikov . Anton . Methane-derived hydrocarbons produced under upper-mantle conditions . Kutcherov . Vladimir G. . Goncharov . Alexander F. . Nature Geoscience . 2009 . 2 . 8 . 566–570 . 10.1038/ngeo591 . 2009NatGe...2..566K . 2022-06-03 . 2017-03-10 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170310195552/http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n8/abs/ngeo591.html . live .
  46. Web site: Fernández Muerza . Alex . 2009 . Puede que haya mucho más petróleo del que se cree . 2022-06-03 . 2017-06-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170626035422/http://www.consumer.es/web/es/medio_ambiente/energia_y_ciencia/2009/08/29/187582.php . live .
  47. Web site: BP Global . Energy charting tool . 2022-06-03 . 2011-01-27 . https://web.archive.org/web/20110127121214/http://www.bp.com/iframe.do?categoryId=9024179&contentId=7044895 . live .
  48. Web site: 2006 . World Consumption of Primary Energy by Energy Type and Selected Country Groups, 1980-2004 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090515090756/http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls . 15 May 2009 . U.S. Department of Energy . XLS.
  49. Silverman, Dennis; Energy Units and Conversions, UC Irvine.
  50. Web site: The Oil Drum . 2006 . Revisiting the Olduvai Theory . So we can assume that 2005 is very likely to be a peak year in Energy/Capita. 30% of 12,522 is approximately 3,756, a value first reached in 1950. In the scenario of an oil-driven world, this value is crossed again in 2044. . 2007-05-21 . 2007-04-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070426210642/http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/6/135437/7111 . live .
  51. Web site: The Oil Drum . 2006 . Revisiting the Olduvai Theory . If it turns out that Oil drives the production of energy from other sources, the life expectancy of the Electric Civilization is less than one hundred years: i.e., X < 100. In case Oil does not drive the production of other energy sources, the life expectancy of the Electric Civilization is greater than or equal to one hundred years: i.e., X >= 100. In such a case, X will be limited by an upper bound not yet evaluated, set by the decline of finite energy sources other than Oil: i.e., X < U. . 2007-05-21 . 2007-04-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070426210642/http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/6/135437/7111 . live .
  52. Book: García Ortega . José Luis . Renovables 2050. Un informe sobre el potencial de las energías renovables en la España peninsular . Cantero . Alicia . 2005 . Madrid, Spain . spanish . It would be technically feasible to supply 100% of the total energy demand with renewable sources. The most appropriate combination of technologies and their geographical location will depend on the energy distribution system, the need for generation regulation (linked to demand management), and the cost evolution of each technology. . 2022-06-03 . 2008-07-04 . https://web.archive.org/web/20080704203016/http://www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/espana/reports/renovables-2050-resumen.pdf . live .
  53. Web site: Colunga . Alfredo . La energía de fusión: posibilidades, realidades, partidarios y detractores . Most of the detractors of fusion energy, environmental groups such as Greenpeace or Ecologistas en Acción, focus their criticism on the fact that it is not a 100% clean form of energy, i.e. it generates highly polluting radioactive waste such as tritium. Tritium is a radioactive isotope that emits beta i radiation and can cause congenital diseases, cancer, or genetic damage if ingested. A hypothetical leak of these materials could, for example, contaminate water, turning it into tritiated water, also radioactive..
  54. Book: Hahnel . Economic Justice And Democracy: From Competition To Cooperation . Routledge . 2005 . 0-415-93345-5 . 2022-06-07 . 2022-06-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220618020054/https://books.google.com/books?id=CI5d2CpL60oC&dq=Hahnel+2005+overexploitation&pg=PA67 . live .
  55. Web site: Fresco . Jacque . Zeitgeits: Addendum - Transcript . https://web.archive.org/web/20090520125145/http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/transcript_add.htm . 20 May 2009 . The fact is, efficiency, sustainability and abundance are enemies of profit. To put it into a word, it is the mechanism of SCARCITY that increases profits..... What is scarcity? Based on keeping products valuable. Slowing up production on OIL raises the price. Maintaining scarcity of diamonds, keeps the price high. They burn diamonds at the Kimberly diamond mines- they are made of carbon-it keeps the price up..
  56. Web site: Fresco . Jacque . Zeitgeits: Addendum - Transcription . https://web.archive.org/web/20090520125145/http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/transcript_add.htm . 20 May 2009 . That said, it turns out that there is another form of clean, renewable energy that beats them all: geothermal energy. Geothermal energy uses what is called heat extraction, which, while a simple process using water, is capable of generating massive amounts of clean energy. In 2006, an MIT report on geothermal energy found that there are currently 13,000 zettajoules of energy available in the earth, with the possibility of 2000 zj being easily harnessed with improved technology. The total energy consumption of all countries on the planet is about half of one zettajoule per year. This means that about 4000 years of planetary energy could be harnessed in this medium alone. And if we understand that the Earth's heat generation is constantly renewing itself, this energy is truly unlimited and could be used forever..
  57. Web site: Fresco . Jacque . Zeitgeits: The Movie - Transcript . Today, we don't have to burn fossil fuels. We don't have to use anything that pollutes the environment. There are many sources of energy available. . 2022-06-03 . 2010-05-09 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100509202135/http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/transcript.htm . live .
  58. Web site: Proyecto Venus contrastado . 14 July 2013 . spanish . Currently, Fresco calls himself things like "social engineer" (it is not a degree, it is a qualification that he gives himself), "futuristic designer", "architectural designer" (avoiding calling you "architect", eh, Jacque?), "conceptual artist", "educator" and he also calls himself the closest thing to a degree that he has been able to find without being denounced by any professional association: "industrial designer". And I say "without being denounced" because Fresco has had, as the swindler that he is, numerous problems with various professional associations of all kinds, since he has tried to pass himself off on many occasions as what he is not, and has been forced to use increasingly "neutral" and "aseptic" terms when referring to his "training" or "profession". . 2022-06-03 . 2016-12-22 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161222195159/https://chemazdamundi.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/el-proyecto-venus-contrastado-3a-parte-analisis-profesional-y-tecnico-de-las-caracteristicas-arquitectonicas-de-el-proyecto-venus-pv-y-de-la-economia-basada-en-recursos-ebr-son-ciertas/ . live .
  59. Book: The Free Energy Secrets of Cold Electricity . Clear Tech . 2001 . 130 . 2022-06-07 .
  60. Web site: Lindemann . Peter . 2001 . Where is the free energy? . 2022-06-03 . 2010-03-25 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100325234816/http://free-news.org/NOM_ciencia_oculta_01.htm . live .
  61. Book: The Coming Energy Revolution: The Search for Free Energy . Avery . 1996 . 0895297132 . U.S.A. . 230 . 2022-06-07 . 2022-06-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220618020056/https://books.google.com/books?id=KzRpAAAACAAJ&q=The+Coming+Energy+Revolution%3A+The+Search+for+Free+Energy . live .
  62. Malthus only advised honest celibacy as the only preventive means of overpopulation, declaring that he understood by moral constraint, that which a man imposes upon himself concerning marriage, from a motive of prudence, when his conduct, during this time, is strictly moral, and that his practical object was only to improve the lot of the lower classes of society. With time, however, the doctrine of Malthus divided among his disciples into two currents. A moderate current composed of those who attenuated his theses, such as J. B. Say, Hegewisch, Joseph de Maistre, Rossi, and Roscher, accepted in general the principle of Malthus under conscious procreation, but added that employing good economy and intelligent art, products can grow more rapidly than in arithmetical progression. On the other hand, a new current of disciples was formed, neo-Malthusianism, who went far beyond what Malthus proposed, and who, far from only advising reflection on honest celibacy, demanded a small number of children through measures ranging from contraception, and voluntary sterility to induced abortion.
  63. Web site: Miller . 1990 . Cornucopians versus Neomaltusians . 2022-06-03 . 2009-12-17 . https://web.archive.org/web/20091217002336/http://ggyma.geo.ucm.es/docencia/HGA-LG/documentos/texcomplemento/CORNUCOPIANOS%20VERSUS%20%20NEOMALTUS.pdf . live .
  64. Web site: Rodríguez . José Carlos . December 2004 . Abundancia sin límites - La Ilustración Liberal . Spanish and American Magazine . 2022-06-03 . 2016-03-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160314120126/http://ilustracionliberal.com/21-22/abundancia-sin-limites-jose-carlos-rodriguez.html . live .
  65. Mascaró Rotger . Antonio . 2005 . El ecologismo falso y cruel, desenmascarado . La Ilustración Liberal . spanish . 26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20091221065035/http://www.libertaddigital.com/ilustracion_liberal/articulo.php/658 . 21 December 2009.
  66. Web site: Yergin . Daniel . 2011 . There will be oil, Business and Finance . Expansion.com . 2022-06-03 . 2021-04-11 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210411105634/https://www.expansion.com/2011/09/24/empresas/1316887208.html?a=7c424fdc70bef59802a38e769f5e3352&t=1317489294 . live .
  67. Routley, R. and V. (1980). 'Human Chauvinism and Environmental Ethics' in Environmental Philosophy (eds) D.S. Mannison, M. McRobbie and R. Routley. Canberra: ANU Research School of Social Sciences: 96-189.
  68. Fabelo Corzo, José Ramón (1999). "¿Qué tipo de antropocentrismo ha de ser erradicado?" . In: Cuba Verde. In search of a model for sustainability in the 21st century. (in Spanish) Havana: José Martí. pp. 264-268.
  69. News: Ryder . Richard . 2005-08-05 . All beings that feel pain deserve human rights . 2024-03-30 . The Guardian . en-GB . 0261-3077.
  70. Plumwood, V. (1993). Feminism and the mastery of nature. London: Routledge.
  71. Plumwood, V. (1996). Androcentrism and anthrocentrism: Parallelism and Politics. Ethics and the Environment 1.
  72. Naess, A. (1973). The Shallow and the Deep, Long-Range Ecology Movement. Inquiry 16: pp. 95-100.
  73. Book: Leggett, Jeremy K. . Half gone: oil, gas, hot air and the global energy crisis . Portobello . 2005 . 1846270049 . It reminds me of those years when nobody wanted to listen to scientists talking about global warming. At that time we predicted events with a lot of attachment to the way they happened. Then as now, we wondered what it would take to get people to listen. It's not a conspiracy: it's institutional denial. . 2022-06-07 . 2022-06-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220618020058/https://books.google.com/books?id=WXYTAQAAIAAJ&q=Half+Gone%3A+Oil%2C+Gas%2C+Hot+Air+and+the+Global+Energy+Crisis . live .
  74. News: Alandete . David . 2010 . Obama apoya con un crédito de 6.000 millones la construcción de la primera central nuclear en 30 años . El País . spanish . It has been assumed that environmentalists are opposed to nuclear power, and nuclear power is the largest source of carbon-free fuel," the president says. . 2022-06-03 . 2022-06-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220618020104/https://elpais.com/sociedad/2010/02/16/actualidad/1266274821_850215.html . live .
  75. Web site: 2005 . China sustituye a Estados Unidos como principal consumidor mundial . Terra . spanish . 2022-06-03 . 2012-08-28 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120828152019/http://www.terra.org/articulos/art01145.html . live .
  76. News: Ruiz de Elvira . Malen . 2007 . El sueño del carbón limpio . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20070521051606/http://www.elpais.com/articulo/futuro/sueno/carbon/limpio/elpepusocfut/20070516elpepifut_2/Tes . 2007-05-21 . 2022-06-03 . ElPaís.com . Spanish . The goal is to close the carbon cycle, to prevent CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, without radically changing the way it works. Hopes are pinned on perfecting and making CO2 capture processes cheaper.
  77. Web site: New Scientist Tech and AFP . 2006 . Green light for nuclear fusion project . New Scientist . 2022-06-03 . 2012-10-21 . https://web.archive.org/web/20121021185409/http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10633-green-light-for-nuclear-fusion-project.html . live .
  78. Web site: Cox . Brian . 2009 . How to build a star on Earth . BBC News . 2022-06-03 . 2022-01-16 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220116155552/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sci/tech/7891787.stm . live .
  79. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2.007x10%5E20%2F1.879x10%5E11 2.007x1020 tep de agua entre 1.879x1011 reservas de petróleo en toneladas
  80. Web site: Genesis Group . 2004 . Crude Oil Definitions . So 1 barrel weighs: 158.9872972 * 0.88 = 139.908821536 kilograms . 2022-06-03 . 2020-11-11 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201111223509/http://www.genesisny.net/Commodity/Oil/ODefinitions.html . live .
  81. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Oil+reserves+*+0.139908821536 Convirtiendo cantidad de reservas de petróleo en barriles a toneladas
  82. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Earth+water+volume+in+cubic+meters+*+150 Convirtiendo cantidad de agua terrestre de metros cúbicos a equivalente en tep
  83. Book: Colino Martínez, Antonio . Historia, Energía e Hidrógeno. . Real Academia de Ingeniería . 2004 . 8495662329 . Spain . https://web.archive.org/web/20110903185905/http://www.real-academia-de-ingenieria.org/docs/2007/11/20/11550001_4_8_0.pdf . 3 September 2011.
  84. On the planet there are 1.386×1018 m^3 of water. If each cubic meter of water is equivalent to 1030 boe in deuterium on earth there are 1.42×1021 boe in deuterium. That total between the annual consumption rate of 12.5 bep per capita in 6.5 billion inhabitants (1.42×1021bep/(12.5bep*6.5x109) gives us an approximate duration of 17.5 billion years.
  85. Web site: Bartlett . Albert . Aritmética, población y energía . 2022-06-03 . 2022-03-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220326125014/https://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy_transcript_spanish.html . live .
  86. At a growth rate of 2% per year we have that PET/(TP*2^(A/(In2*100/2))) = 1 where 200,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 tons of oil equivalent approximately in deuterium reserves in all bodies of water on the planet is PET, where 4,989,300. 477 tons of oil consumed approximately during the year 2011 is TP, where 1220.63 years are needed to equal TP and TEP is A, where 0.693 or natural logarithm of *2^ is In2, and where annual growth at 2% is 100/2. Equating or consuming TP to TEP the result of the equation is 1/1 = 1.
  87. At a growth rate of 5% per year we have that PET/(TP*2^(A/(In2*100/5))) = 1 where 200,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 tons of oil equivalent approximately in deuterium reserves in all bodies of water on the planet is PET, where 4. 989,300,300,477 tons of oil consumed approximately during the year 2011 is TP, where 488.25 years are needed to equal TP and TEP is A, where 0.693 or natural logarithm of *2^ is In2 and where annual growth at 5% is 100/5. When equating or consuming TP to TEP the result of the equation is 1/1 = 1.
  88. At a growth rate of 11.4% per year we have that TEP/(TP*2^(A/(In2*100/11.4))) = 1 where 200,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 tons of oil equivalent approximately in deuterium reserves in all water bodies on the planet is TEP, where 4,989,300. 477 tons of oil consumed approximately during the year 2011 is TP, where 214.14 years are needed to equal TP and TEP is A, where 0.693 or natural logarithm of *2^ is In2 and where annual growth at 11.4% is 100/11.4. Equating or consuming TP to TEP the result of the equation is 1/1 = 1.
  89. Web site: Durkin . Martin . The Great Global Warming Swindle . . 2022-06-03 . 2022-04-24 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220424151830/https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1020027/ . live .
  90. News: Monbiot . George . 2006-09-19 . The denial industry . 2024-03-30 . The Guardian . en-GB . 0261-3077.

Bibliography

This article is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia article "Olduvai theory".

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