2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election
Country:Oklahoma
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2014 Oklahoma gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2014
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Next Election:2022 Oklahoma gubernatorial election
Next Year:2022
Image1:File:Kevin Stitt.jpg
Nominee1:Kevin Stitt
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:644,579
Percentage1:54.33%
Map Size:300px
Governor
Before Election:Mary Fallin
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Kevin Stitt
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Nominee2:Drew Edmondson
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:500,973
Percentage2:42.23%

The 2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Oklahoma. Incumbent Republican governor Mary Fallin was term-limited, and was prohibited by the Constitution of Oklahoma from seeking another gubernatorial term. Republican Businessman Kevin Stitt was elected elected with 54.3% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Oklahoma attorney general Drew Edmondson.

Primary elections occurred on June 26, 2018. Edmondson won the Democratic nomination outright. Stitt, however, faced a runoff election against former Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett. On August 28, 2018, Stitt won the Republican primary runoff and became the Republican nominee for the office. The Libertarian Party also held a primary, which advanced to a runoff, with Chris Powell, a former chair of the Libertarian Party of Oklahoma, winning the nomination.[1] [2]

This was the first election in which the Libertarian Party has been on the ballot to participate in a gubernatorial election in Oklahoma,[3] and the only time since 1986 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected Governor of Oklahoma.

A member of the Cherokee Nation, Stitt became the first tribally enrolled Native American to serve as governor of a U.S. state.[4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary runoff

Eliminated in the initial primary

First round

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mick
Cornett		Dan
Fisher		Gary
Jones		Todd
Lamb		Gary
Richardson		Kevin
Stitt		OtherUndecided
Right Strategy Group (R)[13] June 6–7, 2018435± 4.5% align=center21%4%2% align=center20%6% align=center20%– align=center28%
Oklahoma Strategic Solutions (R-Richardson)[14] May 22–23, 2018500± 4.4%13%4%3% align=center20%13% align=center17%– align=center30%
Right Strategy Group (R)[15] May 22–23, 2018409± 5.0% align=center20%4%3% align=center20%4% align=center21%– align=center29%
SoonerPoll[16] May 15–23, 2018319– align=center20%3%4% align=center23%3%14%1% align=center31%
Magellan Strategies[17] April 18–19 and 22, 2018644± 3.9%17%5%5% align=center19%12% align=center19%– align=center23%
SoonerPoll[18] March 14–22, 2018294– align=center22%4%3% align=center21%7%8%– align=center36%
Oklahoma Strategic Solutions (R-Richardson)[19] March 9, 2018500± 4.4% align=center15%2%3% align=center14%10%8%– align=center48%
SoonerPoll[20] January 4–9, 2018213– align=center24%4%3% align=center18%9%3%– align=center39%

Results

Runoff

Campaign finance

Pre-runoff report due August 20, 2018! Candidate! Total
raised! Total
spent! Total
cash-on-hand
Kevin Stitt$6,542,863.91$6,018,662.13$368,557.72
Mick Cornett$3,242,795.74$2,826,305.70$336,691.50

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mick
Cornett		Kevin
Stitt		Undecided
Remington (R)[22] August 1–2, 20181,757± 2.3%37% align=center47%16%
Right Strategy Group (R)[23] August 1–2, 2018385± 5.0%33% align=center41%26%
SoonerPoll[24] July 18–20, 2018483± 4.5%37%37%25%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Drew
Edmondson		Connie
Johnson		Undecided
Right Strategy Group (R)June 6–7, 2018–– align=center45%11% align=center45%
SoonerPoll[36] May 15–23, 2018297± 5.7% align=center44%14%43%

with Norman Brown

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Norman
Brown		Drew
Edmondson		Connie
Johnson		Undecided
SoonerPollMarch 14–22, 2018264–4% align=center34% align=center13% align=center50%
SoonerPoll[37] January 4–9, 2018162–4% align=center40% align=center21% align=center35%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary runoff

Eliminated in the initial primary

Endorsements

First round

Results

Runoff

Campaign finance

Pre-runoff report due August 20, 2018! Candidate! Total
raised! Total
spent! Total
cash-on-hand
Chris Powell$10,142.88$6,991.02$3,017.51
Rex L. Lawhorn$4,575.00$5,286.87($736.87)

Results

General election

Oklahoma determines ballot order by a random drawing which took place for this election cycle on July 12, resulting in the Libertarian Party being listed first, Republicans second, and Democrats third.[41]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[42] October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[43] November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[44] November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[45] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[47] November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[48] November 5, 2018
Fox News[49] November 5, 2018
Politico[50] November 5, 2018
Governing[51] November 5, 2018

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kevin
Stitt (R)		Drew
Chris
Powell (L)		Undecided
SoonerPoll[52] October 31 – November 3, 2018338± 5.3% align=center47%44%3%6%
SoonerPoll[53] October 23–25, 2018447± 4.6% align=center46%42%4%8%
Magellan Strategies (R)[54] October 22–23, 2018500± 4.4% align=center51%44%1%4%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R)[55] September 25–29, 2018500± 4.3% align=center46%40%4%–
Right Strategy Group (R)[56] September 25–26, 20181,058± 3.0% align=center47%43%2%8%
SoonerPoll[57] September 5–10, 2018407± 4.9% align=center47%44%3%6%
Right Strategy Group (R)August 1–2, 2018737± 4.0%41% align=center42%–17%
SoonerPoll[58] July 18–20, 2018404± 4.9%39% align=center40%–21%
SoonerPoll[59] May 15–23, 2018622± 3.9%25% align=center32%– align=center43%

with Mick Cornett

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mick
Drew
Undecided
Right Strategy Group (R)August 1–2, 2018737± 4.0%39%39%21%
SoonerPoll[60] July 18–20, 2018404± 4.9% align=center43%35%23%
SoonerPoll[61] May 15–23, 2018622± 3.9% align=center33%27% align=center40%

with Todd Lamb

Results

By county

Stitt won 73 counties, while Edmondson won four. Stitt won 56 counties with at least 60% of the popular vote, 14 counties with at least 70%, and three counties  - Beaver, Cimarron, and Ellis  - with upwards of 80%. Stitt had the largest margin of victory in Cimarron with 73.09% more votes than Edmondson's 12.27%, the latter's lowest county performance in the election. The largest county per vote count won by Stitt was Tulsa County, home of Tulsa. Oklahoma County, of which Oklahoma City is county seat, was the only county where Stitt failed to acquire three out of every seven votes.

Edmondson won Muskogee by a single vote, and had an 11.84% margin of victory  - his only margin of victory above 10%  - in Oklahoma County. Edmondson won his four counties with typically narrower margins than that of Stitt, having missed 50% of the popular vote in Muskogee. Powell never came close to winning any counties, but won his highest percentage of votes in Washita County, with 4.97%[63]

CountyStittVotesEdmondsonVotesPowellVotesTotal
Adair61.61%3,18733.73%1,7454.66%2415,173
Alfalfa74.01%1,33321.71%3914.28%771,801
Atoka69.05%2,78928.6%1,1552.35%954,039
Beaver80.82%1,45415.12%2724.06%731,799
Beckham71.18%4,06124.47%1,3964.35%2485,705
Blaine65.73%1,94130.1%8894.17%1232,953
Bryan64.33%7,30133.01%3,7462.66%30211,349
Caddo54.97%4,04741.33%3,0433.69%2727,362
Canadian59.65%27,41036.44%16,7443.91%1,79745,951
Carter64.91%9,09031.74%4,4453.35%46914,004
Cherokee45.58%6,33650.14%6,9704.28%59513,901
Choctaw65.28%2,63431.87%1,2862.85%1154,035
Cimarron85.36%68212.27%982.38%19799
Cleveland45.87%42,26850.62%46,6483.51%3,23192,147
Coal61.05%1,12735.7%6593.25%601,846
Comanche49.66%13,18046.48%12,3363.87%1,02726,543
Cotton65.44%1,31229.83%5984.74%952,005
Craig60.4%2,86336.14%1,7133.46%1644,740
Creek65.53%14,87031.06%7,0483.42%77522,693
Custer63.21%5,23932.76%2,6154.03%3348,288
Delaware65.21%8,54331.4%4,1143.39%44413,101
Dewey79.41%1,40417.82%3152.77%491,768
Ellis80.3%1,18615.98%2363.72%551,477
Garfield63.36%11,00832.31%5,6134.34%75417,375
Garvin64.91%5,14031.7%2,5103.4%2697,919
Grady65.16%11,17330.8%5,2814.05%69417,148
Grant73.36%1,25022.18%3784.46%761,704
Greer64.22%94631.84%4693.94%581,473
Harmon59.38%44337.13%2773.49%26746
Harper78.35%94817.69%2143.97%481,210
Haskell63.44%2,34833.67%1,2462.89%1073,701
Hughes60.73%2,32334.93%1,3364.34%1663,825
Jackson66.31%4,30130.67%1,9893.02%1966,486
Jefferson70.04%1,09927.02%4242.93%461,569
Johnston65.45%1,97631.86%9622.68%813,019
Kay60.51%7,85935.28%4,5824.22%54812,989
Kingfisher75.23%3,84620.81%1,0643.95%2025,112
Kiowa60.61%1,64535.81%9723.57%972,714
Latimer58.8%1,77437.25%1,1253.91%1183,017
Le Flore62.56%8,00934.89%4,4672.55%32712,803
Lincoln64.94%7,32330.31%3,4184.74%53511,276
Logan62.09%9,84733.87%5,3714.04%64115,859
Love68.69%1,90229.18%8082.13%592,769
Major79.28%2,17717.12%4703.61%992,746
Marshall66.66%2,94330.6%1,3512.74%1214,415
Mayes60.63%7,83735.62%4,6043.76%48612,927
McClain65.35%9,02131.05%4,2863.6%49713,804
McCurtain68.43%5,17829.22%2,2112.35%1787,567
McIntosh54.56%3,61242.07%2,7853.37%2236,620
Murray62.97%2,75133.03%1,4434.01%1754,369
Muskogee48.30%9,51548.31%9,5163.39%66819,699
Noble63.83%2,54331.43%1,2524.74%1893,984
Nowata66.14%2,31928.98%1,0164.88%1713,506
Okfuskee56.44%1,75239.98%1,2413.58%1113,104
Oklahoma42.38%98,99454.22%126,6673.4%7,938233,599
Okmulgee52.96%5,84643.93%4,8493.11%34311,043
Osage56.2%8,62940.39%6,2023.21%52415,355
Ottawa55.74%4,75241.08%3,5023.18%2718,525
Pawnee62.42%3,07633.38%1,6454.2%2074,928
Payne49.18%11,19346.8%10,6504.02%91422,757
Pittsburg59.66%7,98636.17%4,8424.16%55713,385
Pontotoc52.43%6,23344.52%5,2933.05%36311,889
Pottawatomie57.06%11,99638.5%8,0934.44%93321,022
Pushmataha63.07%2,10233.18%1,1063.75%1253,333
Roger Mills77.13%1,15718.87%2834%601,500
Rogers64.76%21,45032.02%10,6053.23%1,06933,124
Seminole55.99%3,68139.66%2,6074.35%2866,574
Sequoyah58.31%6,69539.02%4,4802.67%30711,482
Stephens67.48%9,31429.57%4,0812.95%40713,802
Texas74.84%3,09721.6%8943.55%1474,138
Tillman62.89%1,31534.24%7162.87%602,091
Tulsa50.11%101,51847.07%95,3502.82%5,716202,584
Wagoner63%16,34633.53%8,7003.47%9017,276
Washington62.96%11,22633.74%6,0173.3%58817,831
Washita69.72%2,65325.31%9634.97%1893,805
Woods67.83%1,92928.02%7974.15%1182,844
Woodward73.35%4,32623.53%1,3883.12%1845,898

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Stitt won 4 of 5 congressional districts.[64]

DistrictEdmondsonStittRepresentative
1st44.18%52.89%Kevin Hern
2nd37.15%59.51%Markwayne Mullin
3rd33.53%62.56%Frank Lucas
4th42.65%53.71%Tom Cole
5th52.90%43.69%Steve Russell (115th Congress)
Kendra Horn (116th Congress)

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2018 Election Calendar . May 14, 2018 . Oklahoma State Election Board.
  2. Web site: Pre-Runoff Finance Reports: Governor's race . www.muskogeepolitico.com.
  3. Web site: Three Libertarians competing in party's first Oklahoma gubernatorial primary. 2 April 2018. NewsOK.com.
  4. Web site: Only one state makes history with election of first Native governor. March 18, 2021. Indianz.com.
  5. Web site: 2018: Kevin Stitt Announces Republican Bid For Governor. 17 July 2017. 22 May 2018.
  6. Web site: Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett announces plan to run for governor. 2017-05-31. KFOR.com. 2017-06-01.
  7. Web site: Christopher Barnett for Governor. chrisforgov.com. 22 May 2018.
  8. Web site: Former Rep. Lawmaker Dan Fisher To Run For State Governor. Associated Press. 22 May 2018.
  9. Web site: Candidate Filings, 2018. www.ok.gov. 22 May 2018. 25 November 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201125230443/https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_filing_2018.html#GOV. dead.
  10. Web site: Oklahoma Auditor Gary Jones to Run for Governor in 2018. U.S. News & World Report. May 8, 2017. May 18, 2017. Sean. Murphy.
  11. Web site: Lt. Governor Todd Lamb files candidacy paperwork for 2018 governor's race. 2017-04-07. KFOR.com. 2017-06-01.
  12. Web site: Richardson announces run for governor, seeks Republican ticket. The Oklahoman. Felder. Ben. April 24, 2017. April 24, 2017.
  13. https://www.scribd.com/document/381981870/Right-Strategy-Group-Statewide-Survey-Results-6-7-2018 Right Strategy Group (R)
  14. https://www.scribd.com/document/380469572/OK-Gov-Oklahoma-Strategic-Solutions-R-for-Gary-Richardson-May-2018 Oklahoma Strategic Solutions (R-Richardson)
  15. https://archive.today/20180525184027/https://twitter.com/Right_Strategy/status/1000054571782361088 Right Strategy Group (R)
  16. http://kwtv.images.worldnow.com/library/2d195dab-904d-43f9-9308-11183d7be382.pdf SoonerPoll
  17. http://magellanstrategies.com/oklahoma-2018-governor-republican-primary-survey/ Magellan Strategies
  18. https://soonerpoll.com/wpcontent/uploads/2018/03/News9-Final-Report.pdf SoonerPoll
  19. https://www.scribd.com/document/373740944/3-9-2018-Poll-Results-Richardson?secret_password=INjvC6ksvZvZNIuhl9GQ/ Oklahoma Strategic Solutions (R-Richardson)
  20. https://soonerpoll.com/cornett-leads-but-republican-gubernatorial-nomination-up-for-grabs/ SoonerPoll
  21. https://soonerpoll.com/mccarville-report-2018-governors-race-whos-favored/ SoonerPoll
  22. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/OK_GOP_Runoff_Survey_080218.pdf Remington (R)
  23. http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/august-2-2018-survey.html Right Strategy Group (R)
  24. https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://KWTV.images.worldnow.com/library/295ca593-6feb-49f5-ab75-5443b2105337.pdf SoonerPoll
  25. Web site: Drew Edmondson announces run for Oklahoma governor. The Oklahoman. Denwalt. Dale. May 1, 2017. May 1, 2017.
  26. Web site: Gubernatorial candidate Connie Johnson kicks off OSU speaker series. NewsPress. Charles. Michelle. March 8, 2017. March 10, 2017.
  27. News: Ogle. Abigail. Rep. Scott Inman ends bid for governor, to step down from Legislature. 26 October 2017. Koco. 26 October 2017.
  28. Web site: Candidate Detail. guardian.ok.gov.
  29. Web site: Dan Boren Contemplating Governor's Run; David Boren Advises Against It. KGOU. Murphy. Sean. January 11, 2016. July 8, 2016.
  30. Web site: Dan Boren considering governor's race. Tahlequah Daily Press. Beaty. James. October 19, 2016. November 4, 2016.
  31. Web site: Dan Boren decides not to run for Oklahoma governor in 2018. McClatchy Washington Bureau. Murphy. Sean. November 29, 2016. November 29, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161130035440/http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article117646558.html. November 30, 2016. dead.
  32. Web site: Dorman Won't Seek Governor's Office Again If Boren Decides To Run. KGOU. Brooks. Adam. January 12, 2016. July 8, 2016.
  33. Web site: Talking to Cleveland County Dems, Dorman indicates a plan to run as-yet-undetermined office. Red Dirt Report. Rey. Oliver. May 17, 2016. July 8, 2016.
  34. Web site: After ho-hum year for state political contests, 2018 will be 'transformational'. The Oklahoman. Casteel. Chris. October 17, 2016. November 4, 2016.
  35. Web site: Dorman won't run for Oklahoma governor. 30 November 2016. 22 May 2018.
  36. http://kwtv.images.worldnow.com/library/2d195dab-904d-43f9-9308-11183d7be382.pdf SoonerPoll
  37. http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepagelatest/okc-mayor-mick-cornett-has-early-lead-in-republican-governor/article_1ddd60e6-d783-5bbe-89c0-7ab956b86ad7.html SoonerPoll
  38. Web site: Animal Park Operator Among Libertarians Running for Governor . May 25, 2017 . www.usnews.com.
  39. Web site: Former AG Edmondson announces bid for governor. Associated Press. 1 May 2017. 22 May 2018.
  40. Web site: Joe Exotic is running for Governor…. 8 May 2017. 22 May 2018.
  41. Web site: Oklahoma Ballot Order Lottery puts Libertarian Party on Top Line in November 2018 Election – Ballot Access News. ballot-access.org. 15 July 2018 .
  42. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
  43. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  44. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. 17 October 2018 . en. October 17, 2018.
  45. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
  46. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
  47. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  48. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  49. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News.
  50. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
  51. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
  52. https://soonerpoll.com/final-poll-before-election-day-shows-republican-kevin-stitt-with-three-point-lead/ SoonerPoll
  53. https://kwtv.images.worldnow.com/library/a13536c8-2804-4674-ac74-2bd520864032.pdf SoonerPoll
  54. http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Oklahoma-2018-General-Election-Survey-Summary-102418.pdf Magellan Strategies (R)
  55. https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/elections/mixed-polling-in-oklahoma-governor-s-race-republican-kevin-stitt/article_2d6f71ab-2263-5418-b876-f620f3375d18.html Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R)
  56. http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html Right Strategy Group (R)
  57. https://kwtv.images.worldnow.com/library/ed81bb99-7228-4cc6-be40-fd0c4c59a115.pdf SoonerPoll
  58. https://kwtv.images.worldnow.com/library/baa61424-8ea2-43f4-a201-e037533cb740.pdf SoonerPoll
  59. https://kwtv.images.worldnow.com/library/2d195dab-904d-43f9-9308-11183d7be382.pdf SoonerPoll
  60. https://kwtv.images.worldnow.com/library/baa61424-8ea2-43f4-a201-e037533cb740.pdf SoonerPoll
  61. https://kwtv.images.worldnow.com/library/2d195dab-904d-43f9-9308-11183d7be382.pdf SoonerPoll
  62. https://kwtv.images.worldnow.com/library/2d195dab-904d-43f9-9308-11183d7be382.pdf SoonerPoll
  63. Web site: OK Election Results. Okelections.us. 17 November 2020.
  64. Web site: Daily Kos.

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