Oil megaprojects explained

Oil megaprojects are large oil field projects.

Summary of megaprojects

Definition of megaproject: 20,000 barrels per day (3,200 m3/d) of new liquid fuel capacity.

Megaprojects predicted for individual years

Overview200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Application to oil supply forecasting

A series of project tabulations and analyses by Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, have presented a more pessimistic picture of future oil supply. In a 2004 report,[1] based on an analysis of new projects over 100000oilbbl/d, he argued that although ample supply might be available in the near-term, after 2007 "the volumes of new production for this period are well below likely requirements." By 2006,[2] although "the outlook for future supply appears somewhat brighter than even six months ago", nonetheless, if "all the factors reducing new capacity come into play, markets will remain tight and prices high. Only if new capacity flows into the system rather more rapidly than of late, will there be any chance of rebuilding spare capacity and softening prices."

The smallest fields, even in aggregate, do not contribute a large fraction of the total. For example, a relatively small number of giant and super-giant oilfields are providing almost half of the world production.[3]

Decline rates

See main article: Oil depletion. The most important variable is the average decline rate for Fields in Production (FIP) which is difficult to assess.[4] [5] [6]

See also

Further reading

Notes and References

  1. News: Oil field mega projects . 2004.
  2. News: Prices holding steady, despite massive planned capacity additions . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20060628074146/http://sydneypeakoil.com/downloads/PR_APR06_Megaprojects.pdf . 2006-06-28.
  3. Book: Simmons , Matthew . Twilight in the desert : the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy . Wiley . 2005 . 978-0-471-73876-3 . registration .
  4. Web site: Medium Term Oil Market Report . Lawrence Eagles . 2006 . OECD/International Transport Forum Roundtable.
  5. Web site: Modest Non-OPEC Supply Growth Underpins $60+ Oil Price . John Gerdes . 2007 . SunTrust Robinson Humphrey .
  6. Web site: Finding the Critical Numbers: What Are the Real Decline Rates for Global Oil Production? . Peter M. Jackson . 2007 . CERA.