2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary explained

Election Name:2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary
Country:Ohio
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 Ohio Republican presidential primary
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2020 Ohio Republican presidential primary
Next Year:2020
Candidate1:John Kasich
Home State1:Ohio
Delegate Count1:66
Popular Vote1:933,886
Percentage1:46.95%
Map Size:250px
Color1:00B487
Candidate2:Donald Trump
Color2:283681
Home State2:New York
Popular Vote2:713,404
Percentage2:35.87%
Delegate Count2:0
Candidate3:Ted Cruz
Color3:DAA520
Home State3:Texas
Popular Vote3:264,640
Percentage3:13.31%
Delegate Count3:0
Outgoing Members:NC
Elected Members:AS

The 2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary took place March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio, as a part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The Ohio primary was held alongside Republican primary elections in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, along with the Democratic contest in Ohio.

The primary was won by the state's then governor, John Kasich.

Background

In the 2012 Republican primary elections, the Ohio primary was a winner-take-most primary scheduled for March 6.[1] However, the state's winner, Mitt Romney, reached only 37% of the vote and thus won only 58% of the state's delegates. House Bill 153, signed by Governor Kasich, moved the primary to March 15 for the 2016 contest, in what would be dubbed a second Super Tuesday by several news networks.[2] In addition, in mid-September, Ohio's Republican Party decided to make the state's 66 delegates completely winner-take-all, in order to maximize the state's power on the nominating convention and to avoid a similar problem to what happened in 2012. This was also expected to help John Kasich, as the state's governor.[3]

The state of the campaign

Previous contests

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 3 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.[4] [5]

Run-up to the election

The opinion polls during early March showed a narrow lead for Trump over Governor Kasich. These polls found approximately 10% support for Marco Rubio, in a distant fourth place. Seeing that many Rubio voters also preferred Governor Kasich as "establishment" voters, Rubio's communications director encouraged Rubio voters to vote for Kasich on March 11.[21] The strategy seemed to work, as Kasich drew narrowly ahead in the polls immediately before the election.[22] Kasich was seen as a slight favorite to take the state immediately before the primary.[23]

Results

Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after March 15's contests, although this was more based on a poor Florida primary as opposed to the Ohio contest.[24]

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Ohio Republican Delegation 2012. www.thegreenpapers.com. June 23, 2016.
  2. Web site: Super Tuesday II: Clinton sweeps Florida, Illinois, Ohio and North Carolina; Rubio quits after Trump wins Florida. Washington Post. June 23, 2016.
  3. Web site: Ohio GOP sets presidential primary as a winner-take-all event, a move that could boost John Kasich. cleveland.com. June 23, 2016.
  4. Web site: Michigan Republican Presidential Primary. americanresearchgroup.com. June 23, 2016.
  5. Web site: Trump wins in Hawaii, Mississippi and Michigan. Washington Post. June 23, 2016.
  6. Web site: 2016 Ohio Republican Presidential Primary. American Research Group. March 15, 2016. March 15, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160315033406/http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-24082. dead.
  7. Web site: OHIO: KASICH, TRUMP IN GOP SQUEAKER; CLINTON LEADS IN DEM RACE. Monmouth University Polling Institute. March 15, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160314235826/http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/e2e94533-5376-4498-8e62-b21454f3e8ba.pdf. March 14, 2016. dead.
  8. Web site: TRUMP TOPS RUBIO IN FLORIDA, TIES KASICH IN OHIO, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; CLINTON LEADS SANDERS IN TWO CRITICAL PRIMARIES. Quinnipiac University. March 14, 2016. March 14, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160314230943/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps03142016_O33umkp.pdf. dead.
  9. Web site: Poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida. YouGov. March 13, 2016.
  10. Web site: Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio . NBC News . March 13, 2016.
  11. Web site: Fox News Poll: Kasich ahead in Ohio. Fox News. March 10, 2016.
  12. Web site: TRUMP BURIES RUBIO 2-1 IN FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; KASICH TRYING TO CATCH TRUMP IN OHIO. Quinnipiac University. March 10, 2016. March 10, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160310021529/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps03092016_Fhs28mb.pdf. dead.
  13. Web site: Trump, Kasich in Tight Ohio Race. Public Policy Polling. March 8, 2016.
  14. News: Bradner. Eric. CNN/ORC Poll: Trump, Clinton leading in Florida, Ohio. March 9, 2016. CNN. March 9, 2016.
  15. Web site: Quinnipiac University Poll. February 26, 2016.
  16. Web site: Topline Report: Ohio Election Poll. February 26, 2016. February 28, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160228175046/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/oh/oh02232016_Osm46vb.pdf. dead.
  17. Web site: Quinnipiac University Poll. January 7, 2016. December 13, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20151213192340/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps10072015_S73fgbv.pdf. dead.
  18. Web site: Quinnipiac University Poll. January 7, 2015. August 20, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150820182606/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps08202015_Sdeg82k.pdf. dead.
  19. Web site: Quinnipiac University Poll. January 7, 2015. June 19, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150619220957/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06182015_Sk32gth.pdf. dead.
  20. Web site: Public Policy Polling. January 7, 2015.
  21. Web site: Best chance to stop Trump in Ohio is Kasich, Rubio adviser says. Tal Kopan, Julia Manchester and MJ Lee. CNN. June 23, 2016.
  22. Web site: ARG (3/12-3/13 2016). The Huffington Post. June 23, 2016. March 15, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160315033406/http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-24082. dead.
  23. Web site: What’s At Stake For Republicans In The March 15 Primaries. March 14, 2016. FiveThirtyEight. en-US. June 23, 2016.
  24. Web site: Rubio suspends presidential campaign. POLITICO. June 23, 2016.