2024 Thuringian state election explained

Election Name:2024 Thuringian state election
Country:Thuringia
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2019 Thuringian state election
Previous Year:2019
Seats For Election:All 88 seats in the Landtag of Thuringia, plus overhang and leveling seats
Majority Seats:45+
Election Date:1 September 2024
Leader1:Bodo Ramelow
Party1:The Left (Germany)
Leaders Seat1:Erfurt III
Last Election1:29 seats, 31.0%
Leader2:Björn Höcke &<br>Stefan Möller
Party2:Alternative for Germany
Leaders Seat2:List
List
Last Election2:22 seats, 23.4%
Image3: CDU
Leader3:Mario Voigt
Party3:Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Leaders Seat3:
Last Election3:21 seats, 21.7%
Leader4:Georg Maier
Party4:Social Democratic Party of Germany
Leaders Seat4:
Last Election4:8 seats, 8.2%
Image5: Greens
Leader5:Ann-Sophie Bohm-Eisenbrandt
Party5:Alliance 90/The Greens
Leaders Seat5:
Last Election5:5 seats, 5.2%
Leader6:Thomas Kemmerich
Party6:Free Democratic Party (Germany)
Leaders Seat6:List
Last Election6:5 seats, 5.0%
Government
Before Election:Second Ramelow cabinet
Before Party:LeftSPD–Green
Posttitle:Government after election

The next election to the Landtag of Thuringia is scheduled for 1 September 2024.[1]

The current government is a minority government consisting of The Left, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), and The Greens, led by Minister-President Bodo Ramelow of The Left. As a result of the 2020 Thuringian government crisis, there was a cross-party agreement to hold an early Landtag election on 25 April 2021. In January 2021, the parties involved agreed to postpone the election to 26 September due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. All plans for a snap election were later shelved when it became clear there were not sufficient votes to dissolve the Landtag.[2] Minister-President Ramelow proposed 1 September as a date for the 2024 state elections,[3] that was later approved by his cabinet and the Landtag.[4]

Election date

According to § 18 of the Thuringian Electoral Law for the Landtag,[5] the Landtag election must take place on a Sunday or public holiday at the earliest 57 months after the beginning of the current parliamentary term on 5 February 2020 and at the latest 61 months after, i.e. at the earliest in August 2024 and at the latest December 2024.[6]

According to the Thuringian Constitution, an early election may be held if, at the request of one-third of its members, the Landtag votes with a two-thirds majority to dissolve itself. This may also occur if the Landtag does not vote confidence in a Minister President within three weeks of a failed vote of confidence in the incumbent. The motion to dissolve the Landtag may only be voted on between the eleven and thirty days after its submission. If passed, the election must then take place within 70 days.

On 21 February 2020, The Left, CDU, SPD, and Greens came to an agreement to schedule a new election for 25 April 2021.[7] On 14 January 2021, the four parties agreed to postpone the election to 26 September 2021, the same date as the upcoming federal election.[8]

The vote to dissolve the Landtag was scheduled for 19 July. However, the motion was withdrawn on 16 July after four CDU and two Left members informed party leaders they would vote against it, leaving it clearly short of the required two-thirds majority. Left parliamentary leader Stefan Dittes announced there would not be another effort to dissolve the Landtag, and the red-red-green minority government would continue.[9]

Background

Previous election

See main article: 2019 Thuringian state election. In the previous state election held on 27 October 2019, The Left became the largest party for the first time in any German state, winning 31.0% of votes cast. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) made the largest gains, increasing its voteshare by almost 13 percentage points and became the second largest party with 23.4%. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had previously been the largest party in the Landtag, lost almost 12 points and fell to third place with 21.7%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) placed fourth on 8.2%. The Greens narrowly retained their position in the legislature, winning 5.2% of votes. The Free Democratic (FDP) entered the Landtag for the first time since 2009, exceeding the 5% electoral threshold by just 73 votes.[10]

Incumbent Minister President Bodo Ramelow of The Left had led a coalition government of The Left, SPD, and Greens since 2014. The Left's gains were offset by losses for the SPD and Greens, and the coalition lost its majority.

Government crisis

See main article: article and 2020 Thuringian government crisis.

On 5 February, the Landtag narrowly elected the FDP's state leader Thomas Kemmerich as Minister President, with 45 votes to incumbent Bodo Ramelow's 44. Kemmerich was elected with the support of the FDP, CDU and, controversially, the AfD. This was the first time AfD had been involved in the election of a head of state government in Germany. The apparent cooperation of the three parties was viewed by some as breaking the cordon sanitaire around AfD which had been in place since its formation, in which all other parties sought to deny AfD government or political influence, refusing to negotiate or work with them on any level. This sparked major controversy nationwide, with many politicians expressing their outrage, including federal Chancellor and former CDU leader Angela Merkel, who described it as "unforgivable" and condemned her party's involvement.[11] [12] Kemmerich announced his pending resignation on 6 February, just a day after taking office. He submitted his resignation 8 February, but remained in office in an interim capacity.[13]

Following discussions, The Left, CDU, SPD, and Greens announced on 21 February that they had reached an agreement to hold a new election for Minister President on 4 March 2020, and a new state election on 25 April 2021. The four parties stated that they would support Ramelow for Minister President, and that he would lead an interim government for the next 13 months until the election is held. This government would comprise the same red-red-green arrangement which governed Thuringia from 2014 to February 2020 but would not seek to pass a budget before the election. Between them, the four parties hold 63 of the 90 seats in the Landtag (70%), more than the two-thirds required to dissolve the Landtag and trigger an early election. Ramelow was elected Minister President by the Landtag after three rounds of voting on 4 March. In the first two rounds, The Left, SPD, and Greens voted for Ramelow, while AfD voted for Höcke, the CDU abstained, and the FDP did not vote or abstain. In the third round, Höcke withdrew, and Ramelow was elected with 43 in favour, 23 against, and 20 abstentions.[14]

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 7th Landtag of Thuringia.

NameIdeologyLeader(s)2019 resultCurrent
seats
Votes (%)Seats
bgcolor= LinkeThe Left
Democratic socialismHeike Werner
31.0%
bgcolor= AfDAlternative for Germany
Right-wing populismBjörn Höcke
23.4%
bgcolor= CDUChristian Democratic Union of Germany
Christian democracyMario Voigt21.3%
bgcolor= SPDSocial Democratic Party of Germany
Social democracy8.2%
bgcolor= GrüneAlliance 90/The Greens
Green politicsAnn-Sophie Bohm-Eisenbrandt
Bernhard Stengele
5.2%
bgcolor= FDPFree Democratic Party
Classical liberalismThomas Kemmerich5.0%
INDIndependents
,

Campaign

Lead candidates

On 15 June 2020, the SPD elected Georg Maier as state chairman and lead candidate for the planned 2021 election. This came after previous leader Wolfgang Tiefensee resigned his position.[15]

In September 2020, former Federal Commissioner for the New States Christian Hirte was elected as state CDU chairman, succeeding Mike Mohring, who had resigned during the government crisis in February.[16] On 17 November, the state executive nominated parliamentary group leader Mario Voigt as their preferred lead candidate.[17]

After extended pressure from the federal FDP as well as other state branches, Thomas Kemmerich announced on 11 December that he would not stand as his party's lead candidate in the planned 2021 election.[18]

Opinion polls

Party polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
LinkeAfDCDUSPDGrüneFDPBSWOthersLead
Forsa7–14 Aug 20241,011133021741879
INSA1,0001630216331929
Wahlkreisprognose1.00015.527.5234.52.52.5195.54.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen1,015153021731959
INSA1,0001429227422027
Infratest dimap1,172112823742165
European Parliament election5.730.723.28.24.22.015.011.07.5
INSA22–29 Apr 20241,00016302075215410
Infratest dimap1,182162920951569
INSA1,00018312165213410
INSA1,00015312065317311
Forsa1,2531736209534616
Wahlkreisprognose98720.527.512.562.5322.55.55
2736.5167346.59.5
INSA1,000203422944712
INSA1,0002232211064510
INSA1,0002232201054710
1822169532523
Infratest dimap1,1932034211054613
Wahlkreisprognose904253017.510467.55
INSAdata-sort-value="2023-04-24"17–24 Apr 20231,000222821116576
INSAdata-sort-value="2023-01-27"20–27 Jan 20231,000252622106561
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2022-12-11"5–11 Dec 20221,016273015105673
INSAdata-sort-value="2022-11-08"1–8 Nov 20221,108232521117582
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2022-10-31"25–31 Oct 20221,008242817.512666.54
INSAdata-sort-value="2022-09-15"7–15 Sep 20221,081232620118573
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2022-09-06"29 Aug–6 Sep 20221,000222820.5115.5586
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2022-08-02"28 Jul–2 Aug 20221,172222522117583
INSAdata-sort-value="2022-07-11"4–11 Jul 20221,01924242013856Tie
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2022-06-15"7–15 Jun 20221,031242616147582
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2022-05-30"23–30 May 20221,000242318167481
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2022-04-14"6–14 Apr 2022994202119205871
INSAdata-sort-value="2022-04-11"4–11 Apr 20221,027242220167562
INSAdata-sort-value="2022-03-01"1 Mar 20221,000252319166652
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2022-02-22"17–22 Feb 20221,158232419155771
INSAdata-sort-value="2021-12-02"24–30 Nov 20211,000242315187761
INSAdata-sort-value="2021-10-04"29 Sep–4 Oct 20211,074202415217853
2021 federal electiondata-sort-value="2021-09-26"26 Sep 202111.424.016.923.46.69.08.70.6
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2021-07-27"20–23 Jul 20211,162272221116675
INSAdata-sort-value="2021-07-16"9–15 Jul 20211,00627222197865
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2021-06-24"17–24 Jun 202128222110.56.5756
INSAdata-sort-value="2021-06-17"7–14 Jun 20211,00626232296773
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2021-05-18"18 May 202126231610.510.5863
INSAdata-sort-value="2021-03-18"8–16 Mar 20211,03630231998657
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2021-03-02"25 Feb–1 Mar 20211,000292322105666
INSAdata-sort-value="2021-02-04"27 Jan–2 Feb 20211,00031232278638
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2021-01-31"23–31 Jan 20212922.52510652.54
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2020-11-17"10–17 Nov 202033.522.524853.53.59.5
INSAdata-sort-value="2020-11-06"2–5 Nov 20201,032332222965311
INSAdata-sort-value="2020-10-15"5–12 Oct 20201,004332222874411
INSAdata-sort-value="2020-09-04"24 Aug–2 Sep 20201,012332222954511
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2020-08-18"9–18 Aug 20203420.520105.55513.5
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2020-08-04"30 Jul–4 Aug 20201,000322024106448
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2020-06-22"17–22 Jun 202035.521198664.514.5
INSAdata-sort-value="2020-06-25"15–22 Jun 20201,016352222863313
INSAdata-sort-value="2020-05-19"14–19 May 20201,010342221875312
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2020-05-10"2–10 May 2020352517.583.58310
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2020-04-19"14–19 Apr 2020342620.58443.58
INSAdata-sort-value="2020-03-31"25–31 Mar 20201,018372318774414
INSAdata-sort-value="2020-03-09"5–9 Mar 20201,034382515864413
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2020-02-13"13 Feb 20204125.51010.554415.5
INSAdata-sort-value="2020-02-13"10–13 Feb 20201,006402514764415
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2020-02-10"7–10 Feb 20201,0073924131054515
Forsadata-sort-value="2020-02-07"6 Feb 20201,003372412974713
INSAdata-sort-value="2020-02-06"5–6 Feb 20201,006342319667511
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2020-01-25"21–25 Jan 20201,00032241986658
2019 state electiondata-sort-value="2019-10-27"27 Oct 201931.023.421.78.25.25.04.97.6

Hypothetical scenarios

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Ramelow listAfDCDUSPDGrüneFDPBSWOthersLead
Wahlkreisprognose9873537154.53.552
25.53314.53.517.567.5

Minister President polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
None/
Unsure
Lead

Linke

AfD

CDU

CDU

SPD

Grüne

Grüne

Grüne

FDP

Independent

BSW
INSA1.0001818114113291511
2620546
Wahlkreisprognose98740301146910
332610451397
50272323
45243121
49133836
2025555
2830422
45154030
INSA1,00034181243116
INSAdata-sort-value="2023-04-24"17–24 Apr 20231,00035161263119
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2022-12-11"5–11 Dec 20221,0164131881210
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2022-10-31"25–31 Oct 20221,00835261114149
Wahlkreisprognose29 Aug–6 Sep 20221,00032261414146
INSAdata-sort-value="2022-07-11"4–11 Jul 20221,0193811434427
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2022-05-30" 23–30 May 20221,000401815161122
Wahlkreisprognosedata-sort-value="2022-04-14"6–14 Apr 2022994381613181520
INSAdata-sort-value="2022-04-11"4–11 Apr 20221,02737954928
INSAdata-sort-value="2020-09-04"24 Aug–2 Sep 20201,01242973253233
INSAdata-sort-value="2020-03-12"5–9 Mar 20201,03456162140
Forsadata-sort-value="2020-02-07"6 Feb 20201,003649631855
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2020-01-28"21–25 Jan 20201,000609191041

Preferred coalition

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
AssessmentLinke
SPD
BSW
Linke
SPD
Grüne
Linke
SPD
Linke
CDU
BSW
Linke
CDU
SPD
Linke
CDU
Linke
CDU
SPD
FDP
Linke
AfD
CDU
SPD
Grüne
CDU
SPD
Grüne
FDP
CDU
SPD
FDP
AfD
BSW
AfD
CDU
FDP
AfD
CDU
Wahlkreisprognose987Positive3332323331271719283229 colspan="2"41
Infratest dimap28 Jun–3 Jul 20231,193Positive2726211327 colspan="2"31
Negative6767738167 colspan="2"63
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2020-08-06" rowspan="2"30 Jul–4 Aug 20201,000Positive colspan="3"454332362119
Negative colspan="3"52 colspan="2"5263607678
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2020-01-28" rowspan="2"21–25 Jan 20201,000Positive colspan="3"433319
Negative colspan="3"546479

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Ramelow . Bodo . 16 January 2024 . Für alle X Accounts, die mich dauernd fragen wann denn nun die Landtagswahlen in Thüringen wären. . X.
  2. News: Lehmann . Timo . Winter . Steffen . Weiter Chaos in Thüringen: Warum nichts aus der vorgezogenen Neuwahl des Landtags wurde . www.spiegel.de . 16 July 2021 . de.
  3. News: Landtagswahl in Thüringen 2024: Ramelow schlägt Termin 1. September vor . MDR Thüringen . 14 June 2023 . de.
  4. News: Neuer Landtag wird am 1. September 2024 gewählt . MDR Thüringen . 9 September 2023 . de.
  5. http://landesrecht.thueringen.de/jportal/portal/t/glw/page/bsthueprod.psml/action/portlets.jw.MainAction?p1=n&eventSubmit_doNavigate=searchInSubtreeTOC&showdoccase=1&doc.hl=0&doc.id=jlr-WahlGTH2012pP18&doc.part=S&toc.poskey=#focuspoint landesrecht.thueringen.de
  6. http://www.wahlen.thueringen.de/wahltermine.asp Wahltermine in Thüringen
  7. News: Troubled Thuringia gets fresh election dates. 21 February 2020. Deutsche Welle.
  8. Web site: State election in Thuringia postponed to September. 14 January 2021. Mdr.de.
  9. News: Landtagswahl abgesagt: Thüringer Landtag wird nicht aufgelöst . MDR . 16 July 2021 . de.
  10. Web site: Wahlen in Thüringen. Thüringer Landesamt für Statistik.
  11. News: Desolation and hope in German city of Erfurt after far-right vote. Deutsche Welle. 9 February 2020.
  12. News: Germany AfD: Thuringia PM quits amid fury over far right. BBC. 8 February 2020.
  13. News: Germany: Thuringia state premier Kemmerich quits, 'effective immediately'. Deutsche Welle. 8 February 2020.
  14. News: Germany's Thuringia gets left-wing state premier in re-run vote. 4 March 2020.
  15. Web site: SPD state executive nominates Maier for state chairmanship and top candidate. 15 June 2020. Mdr.de.
  16. Web site: Thuringian CDU still without a top candidate. 16 November 2020. Mdr.de.
  17. Web site: Mario Voigt is to become the CDU top candidate for the state election. 17 November 2020. Mdr.de.
  18. Web site: Has the FDP's Kemmerich problem now been solved?. 11 December 2020. Der Tagesspiegel.