Next Thai general election explained

Country:Thailand
Previous Election:2023
Election Date:By 28 June 2027
Seats For Election:All 500 seats in the House of Representatives
Majority Seats:251
Ongoing:yes
Party1:People's Party (Thailand, 2024)
Last Election1:0
Current Seats1:143
Leader2:Paetongtarn Shinawatra
Party2:Pheu Thai Party
Last Election2:141
Current Seats2:142
Leader3:Anutin Charnvirakul
Party3:Bhumjaithai Party
Last Election3:71
Current Seats3:71
Leader4:Prawit Wongsuwon
Party4:Palang Pracharath Party
Last Election4:40
Current Seats4:40
Leader5:Pirapan Salirathavibhaga
Party5:United Thai Nation Party
Last Election5:36
Current Seats5:36
Leader6:Chalermchai Sri-on
Party6:Democrat Party (Thailand)
Last Election6:25
Current Seats6:25
Leader7:Varawut Silpa-archa
Party7:Chart Thai Pattana Party
Last Election7:10
Current Seats7:10
Leader8:Tawee Sodsong
Party8:Prachachart Party
Last Election8:9
Current Seats8:9
Leader9:Sudarat Keyuraphan
Party9:Thai Sang Thai Party
Last Election9:6
Current Seats9:6
Leader10:Narumon Pinyosinwat
Colour10:
  1. F0e68c
Last Election10:New
Current Seats10:4
Leader11:Tewan Liptapanlop
Party11:Chart Pattana Party (2007)
Last Election11:2
Current Seats11:3
Leader12:Wasawat Puangpornsri
Party12:Thai Ruam Palang Party
Last Election12:2
Current Seats12:2
Last Election13:1
Current Seats13:2
Leader14:Sereepisuth Temeeyaves
Party14:Thai Liberal Party
Last Election14:1
Current Seats14:1
Party15:New Democracy Party (Thailand)
Last Election15:1
Current Seats15:1
Last Election16:0
Current Seats16:1
Leader17:
Party17:Casual vacancy
Last Election17:0
Current Seats17:5
Percentage17:
Prime Minister
Before Party:Pheu Thai Party

General elections are scheduled to be held in Thailand no later than 28 June 2027. They will determine the composition of the House of Representatives.

Background

This will be the third election under the 2017 constitution, which was implemented under the National Council for Peace and Order (the junta that took power in the 2014 Thai coup d'état), and the first after the expiration of the constitution's five-year transitory provision that gave the senate voting rights to choose the prime minister in a joint session of parliament. As such, unlike in 2023 when the junta-appointed senate (whose term also ends after five years) blocked the election's majority winner from forming government, this time the outcome of the election should determine the resulting government.[1]

Electoral system

As in the 2023 election, the electoral system will follow that of the 2021 amendment of the 2017 constitution. The 500 members of the House of Representatives are elected by parallel voting. 400 seats are elected from single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting and 100 seats by proportional representation. Voters cast separate ballots for the two sets of seats.[2]

Opinion polls

Preferred party

Fieldwork date(s)Polling firmSamplePP

MFP
BJTDemPPRPUndecidedOthersLead
NIDA2,00034.25%27.15%9.95%3.55%4.40%2.05%15.10%3.55%7.10%
NIDA2,00049.20%16.85%7.55%2.20%3.75%1.75%15.00%3.70%32.35%
KPI1,62044.90%20.20%10.90%3.50%3.00%3.00%12.60%24.70%
NIDA2,00048.45%22.10%5.10%1.70%3.50%2.30%12.75%4.10%26.35%
SPU1,16861.50%25.50%1.08%1.03%1.04%1.95%7.90%26.00%
NIDA2,00044.05%24.05%3.20%1.75%3.60%1.45%16.10%6.00%20.00%
SPU1,25362.00%12.87%9.27%4.39%1.86%2.00%7.61%49.13%
14 May 20232023 election37.99%28.84%12.54%2.99%2.43%1.41%13.80%9.15%

Preferred prime minister

Fieldwork date(s)Polling firmSampleNatthaphongPirapanAnutinSudaratPrawitUndecidedOthersLead
NIDA2,00022.9031.358.654.004.801.1523.503.658.45
Fieldwork date(s)Polling firmSampleSretthaAnutinSudaratPrawitUndecidedOthersLead
NIDA2,00045.5012.854.856.852.053.4020.553.9524.95
KPI1,62046.908.7010.503.300.4030.5036.40
NIDA2,00042.4517.756.003.551.452.901.0520.054.8022.40
NIDA2,00039.4022.355.752.401.701.6518.608.1517.05

Government Approval

Fieldwork date(s)Polling firmSample sizeApproveDisapproveNeitherOthersNet approvalNotes
9–11 September 2024NIDA1,31041.300.76–16.64Paetongtarn's Cabinet
data-sort-value="2024-04-18" 4–5 June 2024NIDA1,31032.591.37–33.45Srettha's Cabinet

Notes and References

  1. News: Sattaburuth . Aekarach . Representatives of Thai public to succeed junta-appointed senators . 24 February 2024 . Bangkok Post . 19 February 2024 . en.
    News: Thailand falls 8 places in Democracy Index . 24 February 2024 . Bangkok Post . 17 February 2024 . en.
  2. News: Thai Parliament passes election changes favouring ruling party . 26 June 2020 . The Business Times . 10 September 2021 . en . 13 September 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210913082555/https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/thai-parliament-passes-election-changes-favouring-ruling-party . live .