| Election Name: | Next Senedd election |
| Country: | Wales |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2021 Senedd election |
| Previous Year: | 2021 |
| Outgoing Members: | outgoing members |
| Seats For Election: | All 96 seats to the Senedd |
| Majority Seats: | 49 |
| Election Date: | due on or before 7 May 2026 |
| 1Blank: | Constituency vote |
| 2Blank: | % and swing |
| 3Blank: | Regional vote |
| 4Blank: | % and swing |
| Opinion Polls: | Opinion polling for the next Senedd election |
| Image1: | Official_portrait_of_Eluned_Morgan_(cropped).jpg |
| Leader1: | Eluned Morgan |
| Party1: | Welsh Labour |
| Leaders Seat1: | Mid and West Wales |
| Leader Since1: | 24 July 2024 |
| Seats Before1: | 30 (out of 60) |
| Seats Needed1: | 19 |
| Leader2: | Andrew RT Davies |
| Leader Since2: | 24 January 2021 |
| Party2: | Welsh Conservatives |
| Leaders Seat2: | South Wales Central |
| Seats Before2: | 16 (out of 60) |
| Seats Needed2: | 33 |
| Image4: | Rhun ap Iorwerth official portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Leader4: | Rhun ap Iorwerth |
| Leader Since4: | 16 June 2023 |
| Party4: | Plaid Cymru |
| Leaders Seat4: | Ynys Môn |
| Seats Before4: | 12 (out of 60) |
| Seats Needed4: | 37 |
| Image5: | Jane-dodds (cropped).jpg |
| Leader5: | Jane Dodds |
| Leader Since5: | 3 November 2017 |
| Party5: | Welsh Liberal Democrats |
| Leaders Seat5: | Mid and West Wales |
| Seats Before5: | 1 (out of 60) |
| Seats Needed5: | 48 |
| First Minister | |
| Posttitle: | First Minister after election |
| Before Election: | Eluned Morgan |
| Before Party: | Labour |
The next Senedd election is due to be held on or before 7 May 2026[1] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament;). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020, and the first following reforms to the voting system which increased the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96 and shortened its term from five years to four.[2] [3]
The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:
See also: Senedd constituencies and electoral regions. In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.
Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.[5] [6]
Although the new system would only be ready and used for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up.[7] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.[8]
Another reform bill, which is yet to be adopted as of May 2024, would provide for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women (unlike the voluntary all-women shortlists used until 2022 by the Labour Party).
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2" | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | AWA | Reform | Others | data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2" | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | ||||||||
| Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | ||||||||||||||
| Welsh Election Study | N/A | 2,565 | 25% | 16% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 16% | 1% | 1 | |||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,072 | 27% | 18% | 23% | 5% | 6% | – | 18% | 3% | 4 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 960 | 36% | 22% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 11% | 0% | 14 | |||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,066 | 30% | 19% | 23% | 6% | 6% | – | 12% | 4% | 7 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 900 | 37% | 20% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 0% | 17 | |||
| The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | ||||||||||||||
The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2" | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | AWA | UKIP | Reform | Others | data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2" | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | ||||||||
| The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | |||||||||||||||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 33% | 18% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 4% | – | 12% | 1% | 14 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 32% | 16% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 6% | – | 11% | 1% | 14 | |||
| Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | |||||||||||||||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 29% | 16% | 25% | 4% | 8% | 7% | – | 10% | 1% | 4 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 34% | 19% | 21% | 6% | 6% | 6% | – | 7% | 1% | 13 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 28% | 20% | 24% | 7% | 8% | 4% | – | 7% | 1% | 4 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 32% | 21% | 18% | 9% | 6% | 5% | – | 7% | 1% | 11 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 5% | 7% | – | 8% | – | 10 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 35% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 12% | 2% | – | 5% | 1% | 14 | |||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 34% | 16% | 20% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 14 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 31% | 19% | 22% | 6% | 10% | – | – | 10% | 3% | 9 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 33% | 20% | 19% | 6% | 10% | – | – | 6% | 4% | 13 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 30% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 9% | – | – | 8% | 4% | 8 | |||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 36% | 16% | 18% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 18 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 30% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 10% | – | – | 8% | 4% | 6 | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 32% | 22% | 23% | 7% | 8% | – | – | 7% | 2% | 9 | |||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 39% | 18% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 0% | 6% | 1% | 19 | |||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 38% | 16% | 23% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 15 | ||||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 37% | 18% | 21% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 16 | |||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 7 | ||||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 34% | 23% | 20% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 11 | ||||
| YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 35% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 13 | |||
| YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 33% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 7 | |||
| 2021 Senedd election | – | 36.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 11.1 | ||||
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | AWA | Green | Reform | Other | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | |||||||
| The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | |||||||||||||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 37% | 21% | 22% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 10% | 0% | 15 | ||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 36% | 21% | 21% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 1% | 15 | ||
| Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[9] | |||||||||||||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 34% | 21% | 19% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 13% | 0% | 13 | ||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 39% | 25% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 14 | ||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 41% | 22% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 0% | 19 | ||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 40% | 23% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 17 | ||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 37% | 27% | 18% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | - | 10 | ||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 39% | 27% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 12 | ||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 41% | 18% | 19% | 6% | – | 4% | 8% | 7% | 22 | ||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 37% | 21% | 20% | 6% | – | 3% | 9% | 4% | 16 | ||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 42% | 22% | 16% | 6% | – | 3% | 7% | 3% | 20 | ||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 36% | 22% | 19% | 7% | – | 3% | 10% | 3% | 14 | ||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 40% | 18% | 17% | 7% | – | 5% | 8% | 4% | 22 | ||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 38% | 23% | 20% | 7% | – | 3% | 7% | 2% | 15 | ||
| Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 41% | 21% | 20% | 5% | – | 4% | 8% | 2% | 20 | ||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 43% | 18% | 20% | 4% | – | 4% | 9% | 1% | 23 | ||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 44% | 17% | 20% | 6% | – | 3% | 7% | 4% | 24 | ||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 40% | 20% | 22% | 6% | – | 3% | 5% | 4% | 18 | ||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 37% | 24% | 21% | 6% | – | 5% | 5% | 3% | 13 | ||
| YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 38% | 24% | 21% | 6% | – | 3% | 5% | 4% | 14 | ||
| YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 40% | 23% | 17% | 4% | – | 5% | 7% | 4% | 17 | ||
| YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 37% | 27% | 19% | 5% | – | 4% | 5% | 5% | 10 | ||
| 2021 Senedd election[10] | – | 39.9% | 26.1% | 20.3% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 13.8 | |||