44th Ontario general election explained

Election Name:44th Ontario general election
Country:Ontario
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:yes
Party Colour:no
Party Name:no
Previous Election:2022 Ontario general election
Previous Year:2022
Outgoing Members:43rd Parliament of Ontario
Election Date:On or before
Next Election:45th Ontario general election
Next Year:45th
Seats For Election:124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
Majority Seats:63
Opinion Polls:
  1. Opinion polls
Image1:Installation of 30th Lieutenant Governor of Ontario ONT 8196 (53335409257) (cropped).jpg
Image1 Size:175x175px
Leader1:Doug Ford
Leader Since1:March 10, 2018
Leaders Seat1:Etobicoke North
Last Election1:83 seats, 40.82%
Seats Before1:78
Image2 Size:x175px
Leader2:Marit Stiles
Leader Since2:February 4, 2023
Leaders Seat2:Davenport
Last Election2:31 seats, 23.74%
Seats Before2:28
Image4:Bonnie Crombie at 2017 AMO Conference (36541302906) (cropped3).jpg
Image4 Size:x175px
Leader4:Bonnie Crombie
Leader Since4:December 2, 2023
Leaders Seat4:None
Last Election4:8 seats, 23.85%
Seats Before4:9
Image5:Gpo-mike-schreiner-headshot-2021-bricks (cropped).jpg
Image5 Size:175x175px
Leader5:Mike Schreiner
Leader Since5:May 16, 2009
Leaders Seat5:Guelph
Last Election5:1 seat, 5.96%
Seats Before5:2
Premier
Posttitle:Premier-designate
Before Election:Doug Ford

The 44th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on June 4, 2026. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election,[1] unless the Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due to advice from the Premier of Ontario, a motion of no confidence or the failure of the Assembly to grant supply.

Date

Under the Ontario Elections Act, general elections shall be held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election. As the previous election was held on June 2, 2022, the election would be June 4, 2026. However, there has been speculation that Premier Ford will call a snap election to take advantage of a lead in the polls and fundraising, as well as a desire to hold the election before the next federal election, which the Conservative party is currently leading in polls and speculated to win.[2] [3] Speculation was further fueled by Ford refusing to commit to the June 2026 date when asked by reporters at multiple press conferences in May 2024.[4] [5] [6]

Standings

|-!rowspan="2" colspan="2" align=left|Party!rowspan="2" align=left|Party leader!colspan="2" align=center|Seats|-!align="center"|2022!align="center"|Current|align=left|Doug Ford|83|78|align=left|Marit Stiles|31|28|align=left|Bonnie Crombie|8|9|align=left|Mike Schreiner|1|2| colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Independent|1|6|-|| colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Vacant|0|1|-|align=left colspan="3"|Total| align="right"|124| align="right"|124|}

Timeline

2022

2023

2024

Changes in seats held since June 2, 2022
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Hamilton CentreAugust 15, 2022Andrea Horwath[15] [16] Resignation from legislature.[17] March 16, 2023Sarah Jama[18]
Don Valley NorthMarch 10, 2023Vincent Ke[19] Resignation from caucus.[20]
Kanata—CarletonMarch 24, 2023Merrilee Fullerton[21] Resignation from legislature.July 27, 2023Karen McCrimmon[22]
Algoma—ManitoulinMarch 31, 2023Michael Mantha[23] Expelled from caucus.[24]
Scarborough—GuildwoodMay 10, 2023Mitzie Hunter[25] Resignation from legislature Resignation from legislature.[26] July 27, 2023Andrea Hazell[27]
Kitchener CentreJuly 13, 2023Laura Mae Lindo[28] [29] Resignation from legislature Resignation from legislature.[30] November 30, 2023Aislinn Clancy[31]
Mississauga East—CooksvilleSeptember 20, 2023Kaleed Rasheed[32] Resignation from caucus.[33]
Lambton—Kent—MiddlesexSeptember 22, 2023Monte McNaughton[34] Resignation from legislature[35] May 2, 2024Steve Pinsonneault
Hamilton CentreOctober 23, 2023Sarah Jama[36] Expelled from caucus.[37]
MiltonJanuary 25, 2024Parm Gill[38] Resignation from legislature. May 2, 2024Zee Hamid
CarletonJune 28, 2024Goldie Ghamari[39] Expelled from caucus.
Bay of QuinteAugust 16, 2024Todd Smith[40] Resignation from legislature. Vacant

Ridings

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015[41] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,[42] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124.[43] [44] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.[45]

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario has been allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons, which could potentially increase the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

Opinion polls

Polling firmLast date
of polling		SourcePCNDPLiberalGreenNew BlueOtherMargin of errorSample sizePolling typeLead
Abacus DataJuly 21, 2024[46] 44192674±3.1%1,000Online18
Liaison StrategiesJune 27, 2024[47] 39212875±2.77%1,245IVR11
Abacus DataJune 25, 2024[48] 41222584±3.1%1,000Online16
Pallas Data[49] 39.422.626.58.33.2±2.9%1,136IVR12.9
Abacus DataMay 15, 2024[50] 39222694±3.1%1,000Online13
Abacus DataApril 16, 2024[51] 41212575±3.1%995Online16
Liaison StrategiesApril 7, 2024[52] 40183056±2.74%1,280IVR10
Abacus DataMarch 21, 2024[53] 41212775±2.5%1,500Online14
Liaison StrategiesMarch 9, 2024[54] 39212956±2.74%1,283IVR10
Angus ReidMarch 6, 2024[55] 37252764±3.0%777Online10
Abacus DataFebruary 21, 2024[56] 41192785±3.1%1,000Online14
Pallas Data[57] 34.521.631.67.35.0±2.9%1,121IVR2.9
Liaison StrategiesFebruary 3, 2024[58] [59] 38223055±2.8%1,236IVR8
Abacus DataJanuary 23, 2024[60] 38232756±3.1%995Online11
Abacus DataDecember 12, 2023[61] 39242764±3.1%1,000Online12
Mainstreet ResearchDecember 4, 2023[62] 36193465±3.3%872Smart IVR2
December 2, 2023Bonnie Crombie is elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
Abacus DataNovember 28, 2023[63] 42242374±2.6%1,500Online18
Innovative ResearchOctober 30, 2023[64] 41262572925Online15
Abacus DataOctober 15, 2023[65] 40242475±3.7%700Online16
Pallas Data[66] [67] 33.427.426.76.75.8±3.2%964IVR6
Angus ReidSeptember 6, 2023[68] 38282275656Online10
Abacus DataSeptember 4, 2023[69] 34262875±2.2%2,003Online6
Pallas DataAugust 29, 2023[70] 37.325.826.95.24.9±3.2%940IVR10.4
Abacus DataAugust 23, 2023[71] 38242576±3.1%1,040Online13
Abacus DataJuly 25, 2023[72] 41232475±3.1%1,000Online17
Mainstreet ResearchJune 30, 2023[73] [74] 34.724.725.010.74.9±3.1%993Smart IVR9.7
Abacus DataJune 11, 2023[75] [76] 36262764±3.1%1,000Online9
Counsel Public AffairsJune 8, 2023[77] 392327741,323Online12
Angus ReidJune 3, 2023[78] 36272566653Online9
Angus ReidMarch 13, 2023[79] 38302066±3%861Online8
Abacus DataMarch 4, 2023[80] 412228522±3.1%1,000Online13
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 4, 2023[81] 36.819.423.311.29.4±2.9%1,166Smart IVR13.5
February 4, 2023Marit Stiles is declared leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party
Angus ReidDecember 3, 2022[82] 37272565±3%1,058Online10
December 2, 2022[83] 37.325.924.46.65.8±2.9%1,162Smart IVR11.4
Abacus DataNovember 5, 2022[84] 382627532±3.1%1,000Online11
August 3, 2022Steven Del Duca resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party; John Fraser becomes interim leader
June 28, 2022Andrea Horwath resigns as leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party; Peter Tabuns becomes interim leader
EKOSJune 20, 2022[85] [86] 37.523.319.29.85.25±2.7%1,357Online/Telephone14.2
2022 election40.8223.7423.855.962.722.9016.97

References

Opinion poll sources

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: Ferguson. Rob. Ontario moves election date to June 7, 2018. October 31, 2016. Toronto Star. October 19, 2016.
  2. News: Benzie . Robert . Tory insiders say fear of a Pierre Poilievre victory has Doug Ford considering an early election call . 28 May 2024 . . 27 May 2024.
  3. News: Paikin . Steve . Keep your eyes open for signs of an early election call in Ontario . 28 May 2024 . . 15 April 2024.
  4. News: D'Mello . Colin . Ontario opposition parties ready for early election call after premier fuels speculation . 28 May 2024 . . 27 May 2024.
  5. News: Premier declines to commit to June 2026 Ontario election . 28 May 2024 . . . 24 May 2024.
  6. News: Benzie . Robert . Doug Ford was asked about calling on early election. ‘Stay tuned,’ he says . 28 May 2024 . . 28 May 2024.
  7. News: Benzie . Robert . 2 June 2022 . Doug Ford trounces the competition as Steven Del Duca and Andrea Horwath resign as party leaders . . 6 June 2022.
  8. News: 28 June 2022 . Ontario NDP names Peter Tabuns interim leader . . . 10 August 2022.
  9. News: Jackson . Hannah . 25 July 2022 . Ontario Liberal caucus selects John Fraser to serve as party's interim leader . . 10 August 2022.
  10. Web site: Ontario Liberals Announce New Critic Roles . 10 August 2022 . www.ontarioliberal.ca.
  11. Web site: It's a done deal: Marit Stiles will win the NDP leadership uncontested TVO.org . 2022-12-06 . www.tvo.org.
  12. Web site: CityNews . toronto.citynews.ca.
  13. News: Griffin . Tyler . 4 February 2023 . Ontario NDP officially confirms Marit Stiles as leader by majority vote . . . 8 February 2023.
  14. News: 2023-12-02 . Bonnie Crombie takes aim at Doug Ford after winning Ontario Liberal leadership . en-CA . The Globe and Mail . 2023-12-03.
  15. News: Moro . Teviah . 'I love this city': Former Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath enters Hamilton mayoral race . 26 July 2022 . . 26 July 2022.
  16. News: Werner . Kevin . Hamilton mayoral candidate Andrea Horwath officially resigns her Hamilton Centre seat Aug. 15 . 18 August 2022 . . 15 August 2022.
  17. to run for Mayor of Hamilton.
  18. Web site: NDP's Sarah Jama elected as next MPP for Hamilton Centre. April 12, 2023. Hristova. Bobby. CBC News. March 16, 2023 . https://archive.today/20230412133903/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/byelection-hamilton-centre-results-1.6781562. April 12, 2023. live.
  19. News: Stone . Laura . Progressive Conservative MPP Vincent Ke leaves caucus after allegations of election interference . 13 March 2023 . . 10 March 2023.
  20. due to allegations that he was involved in the 2019 Canadian Parliament infiltration plot.
  21. News: Ontario PC cabinet minister Merrilee Fullerton resigns . 24 March 2023 . . . 24 March 2023.
  22. News: Holder . Gord . Karen McCrimmon wins Kanata-Carleton byelection for Ontario Liberals . 1 December 2023 . . . 27 July 2023.
  23. Web site: Michael Mantha removed from Ontario NDP caucus amid workplace investigation. 1 April 2023. The Canadian Press . The Canadian Press. CBC News. 1 April 2023. https://archive.today/20230401151654/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/michael-mantha-ndp-1.6798600. 1 April 2023. live.
  24. over workplace misconduct allegations.
  25. Web site: Toronto mayoral candidate Mitzie Hunter reveals date she'll resign as MPP. May 2, 2023. thestar.com.
  26. to run for Mayor of Toronto.
  27. News: Nakhavoly . Melissa . Liberal victory in Scarborough-Guildwood byelection . 1 December 2023 . . 27 July 2023.
  28. News: Maher . Brandon . Lindo steps down as MPP, citing cost of childcare . 13 July 2023 . . 11 July 2023.
  29. News: Bueckert . Kate . Kitchener Centre MPP Laura Mae Lindo stepping down to take Ontario university job . 13 July 2023 . . 18 January 2023.
  30. to accept position at the University of Waterloo
  31. News: Bholla . Cheyenne . Aislinn Clancy wins Kitchener Centre . 1 December 2023 . . 30 November 2023.
  32. Web site: Ontario MPP Kaleed Rasheed resigns from Ford's cabinet following Greenbelt probe . CBC . 21 September 2023 . 11 February 2024.
  33. after contradictory claims were made regarding a Las Vegas business trip.
  34. News: Richmond . Randy . 'Rising star' Monte McNaughton, region's top-ranking MPP, quits amid tumult . 1 December 2023 . . 22 September 2023.
  35. to accept position in the private sector
  36. News: DeClerq . Katherine . Ontario MPP Sarah Jama censured and removed from NDP caucus over Israel-Gaza comments . 23 October 2023 . . 23 October 2023.
  37. over comments made regarding the 2023 Israel–Hamas war
  38. News: Crawley . Mike . Ontario PCs' Parm Gill resigns from cabinet to run for Poilievre's Conservatives . 2 February 2024 . . 25 January 2024.
  39. News: Rushowy . Kristin . Doug Ford removes MPP Goldie Ghamari from caucus after she met with British far-right figure . 28 June 2024 . . 28 June 2024.
  40. News: Baldwin . Derek . Bay of Quinte MPP Smith resigns, taking job in private sector . 17 August 2024 . . 16 August 2024.
  41. Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015. S.O.. 2015. 31. https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/s15031.
  42. as a result of the Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016. S.O.. 2016. 33. 36. https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/s16033.
  43. Web site: Report: Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission. . August 8, 2017. May 1, 2018. March 19, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180319204331/https://www.attorneygeneral.jus.gov.on.ca/english/about/pubs/fnebc/. live.
  44. News: Benzie. Robert. Ontario to get 17 new ridings, including a constituency that is largely Indigenous. December 10, 2017. Toronto Star. August 8, 2017. December 6, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171206135922/https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/08/08/ontario-to-get-17-new-ridings-including-a-constituency-that-is-largely-indigenous.html. live.
  45. Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017. S.O.. 2017. 18. https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/S17018.
  46. Web site: Abacus Data Ontario Poll: LCBO strike seems to have had little impact on Ontario’s political opinions. PCs lead Liberals by 18.. . July 27, 2024 . July 29, 2024 .
  47. Web site: Valentin . David . Ontario PCs Lead Liberals by 11 - But Gap Would Narrow if Early Election Called . Liaison Strategies . 2 July 2024 . 2 July 2024.
  48. Web site: Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs lead by 16 despite increase in disapproval of the provincial government’s performance. . June 30, 2024 . June 30, 2024 .
  49. Web site: Ontario - Provincial Voting Intentions And Opinions on Alcohol Sales, Early Election, and Strategic Voting . 10 June 2024.
  50. Web site: Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs lead by 13 over Crombie Liberals. . May 22, 2024 . May 23, 2024 .
  51. Web site: Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs ahead of Crombie Liberals by 16. . April 22, 2024 . April 22, 2024 .
  52. Web site: Valentin . David . Ford PCs Lead Liberals by 10, 49% of Ontarians Would Abolish Carbon Tax . Liaison Strategies . 11 April 2024 . 11 April 2024.
  53. Web site: Ford vs. Poilievre: What Ontarians think plus the latest Ontario politics tracker. . March 25, 2024 . March 25, 2024 .
  54. Web site: Valentin . David . Ontario PCs Lead Liberals by 10, Ontarians believe Province is Doing Best on Housing . Liaison Strategies . 11 March 2024 . 11 March 2024.
  55. Web site: Ontario Spotlight: Budget deficit adds to Ford government’s challenges, as criticism on top issues mounts from all sides . Angus Reid Institute . 2 April 2024 . 2 April 2024.
  56. Web site: Doug Ford's Tories are surging at the expense of Marit Stiles' New Democrats, poll suggests. . February 26, 2024 . February 26, 2024 .
  57. Web site: Ontario - Provincial Voting Intentions And Assessment of the Ford Government . www.thetrillium.ca . Pallas Data . 19 February 2024.
  58. Web site: Valentin . David . Ontario PCs Lead Liberals by 8, No Confidence in the Healthcare system . Liaison Strategies . 6 February 2024 . 9 February 2024.
  59. Web site: Wilson . Codi . Ford's PC Party has eight-point lead over Liberals but Crombie gaining ground in some areas: poll . . . 6 February 2024 . 9 February 2024.
  60. Web site: Doug Ford's Tories are ahead, but ominous signs are on the horizon, poll suggests. . January 28, 2024 . January 28, 2024 .
  61. Web site: Bonnie Crombie is exposing vulnerabilities in Doug Ford's Tories, poll suggests. . December 18, 2023 . 18 December 2023.
  62. Web site: Martin . Robert . Mainstreet Ontario, December 2023 Public. Mainstreet Research . 5 December 2023 . 5 December 2023.
  63. Web site: Coletto . David. As the Ontario Liberals prepare to announce new leader, Ford PCs open up an 18-point lead over the NDP.. Abacus Data. December 1, 2023 . 2 December 2023.
  64. Web site: Canada This Month: Greenbelt Controversy . Innovative Research Group . 10 November 2023 . 13 November 2023.
  65. Web site: Coletto . David . Ontario PCs rebound despite RCMP investigation starting . . 18 October 2023 . 20 October 2023.
  66. Web site: Provincial Voting Intentions and Ontarians' Opinions on Ontario Liberal Leadership Candidates . Village Media . 2 October 2023.
  67. Web site: Smith Cross . Jessica . Support for Doug Ford's PCs nears all-time low, poll finds . The Trillium . 2 October 2023 . . 2 October 2023.
  68. Web site: Greenbelt Grief: Ford's personal approval drops to five-year low, but voters still prefer PCPO to opposition options. www.angusreid.org. September 8, 2023 .
  69. Web site: Coletto . David . Ford's PCs down 7-points since the end of July as the Greenbelt scandal bites. Abacus Data . 6 September 2023 . 6 September 2023.
  70. Web site: Provincial Voting Intentions and Ontarians' Attitudes About Greenbelt Development . Village Media . Pallas Data . 30 August 2023 . 1 September 2023.
  71. Web site: Coletto . David . Has the Greenbelt scandal hurt the Ford PCs in Ontario? . Abacus Data . 25 August 2023 . 25 August 2023.
  72. Web site: Benzie . Robert . A bad sign for Doug Ford's future? Majority of Ontarians think his decisions benefit 'friends and supporters,' poll finds . Toronto Star . 26 July 2023 . 26 July 2023.
  73. Web site: Fric . Curtis . Ontario Provincial, July 2023 Public . Mainstreet Research . 6 July 2023 . 6 July 2023.
  74. Web site: Latest Ontario Polling From Mainstreet! . Twitter . Mainstreet Research . 6 July 2023 . 6 July 2023.
  75. Web site: Benzie . Robert . A front-runner has emerged in the Liberal leadership race, poll finds . Toronto Star . 12 June 2023 . 12 June 2023.
  76. Web site: Coletto . David . Ford PCs ahead by 9 as Ontario Liberal leadership race kicks off: Abacus Data Poll . Abacus Data . 13 June 2023 . 18 June 2023.
  77. Web site: Nanji . Sabrina . Exclusive: Crombie is tops, Ford is Teflon . Queen's Park Observer . 20 July 2023 . 21 July 2023.
  78. Web site: Provincial Performance: B.C. & Ontario governments face immense, growing criticism over handling of key issues. www.angusreid.org.
  79. Web site: Ontario Spotlight: NDP under Marit Stiles opens up gap over Liberals, but new leader still relatively unknown . www.angusreid.org.
  80. Web site: Ontario Politics: PCs lead by 13 as the public reacts to the story about the Ford family stag-and-doe and wedding . 2023-03-07 . abacusdata.ca.
  81. Web site: Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario . 2023-02-06 . ipolitics.ca.
  82. Web site: Angus Reid Ontario Spotlight: Ford government frozen out over key issues of inflation, health care, education . 2022-12-16 . angusreid.org. December 15, 2022 .
  83. Web site: Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario . 2022-12-05 . ipolitics.ca.
  84. Web site: Abacus Data Ford vs. Education Workers: How are Ontarians reacting? . 2022-11-07 . abacusdata.ca. November 6, 2022 .
  85. Web site: The 2022 Ontario Election in Review . June 27, 2022 . Ekos Politics.
  86. Web site: Ekos Data Tables . https://web.archive.org/web/20221107004504/https://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/20220627datatables.pdf . November 7, 2022 .

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