Next Northern Ireland Assembly election explained

Election Name:Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election
Previous Year:2022
Outgoing Members:7th Northern Ireland Assembly
Seats For Election:All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly
Election Date:No later than 6 May 2027
Leader1:Michelle O'Neill
Party1:Sinn Féin
Last Election1:27 seats, 29.0%
Leader2:Gavin Robinson
Party2:Democratic Unionist Party
Last Election2:25 seats, 21.3%
Leader3:Naomi Long
Party3:Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
Last Election3:17 seats, 13.5%
Leader4:Doug Beattie
Party4:Ulster Unionist Party
Last Election4:9 seats, 11.2%
Leader5:Colum Eastwood
Party5:Social Democratic and Labour Party
Last Election5:8 seats, 9.1%
Leader6:Jim Allister
Party6:Traditional Unionist Voice
Last Election6:1 seat, 7.6%
Leader7:Eamonn McCann
Party7:People Before Profit
Last Election7:1 seat, 1.1%
First Minister and
deputy First Minister
Posttitle:First Minister and
deputy First Minister
Before Election:Michelle O'Neill (SF) &
Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP)
Leader Since1:23 January 2017
Leader Since2:29 March 2024
Leader Since3:26 October 2016
Leader Since4:27 May 2021
Leader Since5:14 November 2015
Leader Since6:7 December 2007
Leaders Seat1:Mid Ulster
Leaders Seat2:MP (not an MLA)
Leaders Seat3:Belfast East
Leaders Seat4:Upper Bann
Leaders Seat5:MP (not an MLA)
Leaders Seat6:MP (not an MLA)

A Northern Ireland Assembly election will be held to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly on or before 6 May 2027.

After the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May 2022, the DUP (the largest unionist party in the legislature) declined to agree on the appointment of Speaker to the Assembly, preventing the formation of an Executive. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, confirmed a legal obligation to call an election if no Executive was formed by a 27 October 2022 deadline.[1] No Executive was formed by this deadline,[2] but the deadline was extended by legislation in the Westminster Parliament.[3] [4] A deadline of 18 January 2024 was then proposed.[5] [6] On 31 January 2024 the DUP and UK Government announced a deal had been struck to revive the Executive,[7] and on 3 February 2024 the Assembly swore in Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O'Neill and DUP deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.[8]

This election will be the eighth since the assembly was established in 1998. Seven parties have MLAs in the seventh assembly: Sinn Féin led by Michelle O'Neill, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Gavin Robinson,[9] Alliance led by Naomi Long, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) led by Doug Beattie, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) led by Colum Eastwood, Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) led by Jim Allister, in addition to People Before Profit (PBP), who have a collective leadership.

Background

See main article: 2024 Northern Ireland Executive Formation. Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,[10] which is 6 May 2027. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved earlier.

After the 2022 Assembly election, the DUP declined to join in forming a government due to its opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol on post-Brexit trading arrangements. If no government is formed within six months, the United Kingdom Government's Northern Ireland Secretary has to call a new election early or come up with some other solution.[11] No government was formed by the deadline.[12] Rather than call a new election, Heaton-Harris introduced legislation to extend the deadline, the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022.[13] [14] [15] The new deadline also passed with no resolution.[16] [17] [18] Heaton-Harris produced a further extension through legislation via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) Act 2023.[19] [20]

On 27 February 2023, the UK and EU announced the Windsor Framework to make changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.[21] It was hoped that this would lead to formation of an Assembly executive.[22] However, the DUP boycott continued.[23] Heaton-Harris again brought primary legislation to further extend the deadline to 8 February 2024, via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2024.[24] [25] [26]

On 30 January, the DUP announced that they would accept a deal conditional on legislation being passed by the UK government that saw them agreeing to form an executive with Sinn Fein.[27] A new executive was formed on 3 February 2024.

Opinion polling

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientdata-sort-type="number" rowspan="2" Sample
size
SF
N
DUP UAPNI OUUP USDLP NTUV UGreen OAontú NPBP OOtherLead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
19 Aug 2024Doug Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party
10-13 May 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,02129%21%15%11%8%8%1%2%1%4%8%
Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party
9–12 Feb 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,20731%24%14%10%7%6%1%2%1%4%7%
Establishment of the new executive
LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,04631%28%16%8%6%4%2%1%1%2%3%
14 Jan – 7 Sep 2023Northern Ireland Life and Times SurveyARK1,20019%15%22%10%7%4%3%
LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95031%26%15%10%6%5%2%2%1%2%5%
2023 local elections30.9%23.3%13.3%10.9%8.7%3.9%1.7%0.9%1.0%7.6%
LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,55729%25%13%11%7%7%2%2%1%3%4%
Institute of Irish StudiesUniversity of Liverpool/The Irish NewsN/A30.6%23.9%15.4%11.3%6.7%4.8%3.2%0.2%2.2%6.7%
LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,49931%25%15%10%7%7%1%2%1%1%6%
LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35132%27%15%9%7%5%2%1%1%1%5%
LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38430%24%16%11%7%6%2%2%1%1%6%
Institute of Irish StudiesUniversity of Liverpool/The Irish News1,00030.9%20.1%15.3%9.6%10.0%4.7%2.8%1.6%2.2%2.8% 10.8%
2022 Assembly election29.0%21.3%13.5%11.2%9.1%7.6%1.9%1.5%1.1%7.7%
Note: Next to the party initials at the top of the table there are the letters "N", "O", and "U". These show how the parties have chosen to designate themselves, Unionist (U), Nationalist (N) or other (O), in the Assembly previously (or, in the case of Aontú, how they are expected to designate if they win a seat). This is a function of the Assembly's consociational design.

Leadership approval ratings

Michelle O'Neill

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018, First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95043%37%20%+6%
21–24 Apr 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95741%37%22%+4%
20–23 Jan 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44941%40%19%+4%
4–7 Nov 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35146%37%17%+9%
12–15 Aug 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38440%42%18%–2%
Jeffrey Donaldson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) until 29 March 2024.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95024%66%10%–42%
21–24 Apr 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95727%65%8%–38%
20–23 Jan 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44925%63%12%–38%
4–7 Nov 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35129%65%6%–36%
12–15 Aug 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38427%64%9%–37%
Naomi Long

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016 and Minister of Justice since 3 February 2024 and from 11 January 2020 to 27 October 2022.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95038%39%23%–1%
21–24 Apr 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95740%38%22%+2%
20–23 Jan 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44937%38%25%–1%
4–7 Nov 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35145%37%18%+8%
12–15 Aug 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38446%37%17%+9%
Doug Beattie

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95034%38%28%–4%
21–24 Apr 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95738%33%29%+5%
20–23 Jan 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44928%42%30%–14%
4–7 Nov 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35137%32%31%+5%
12–15 Aug 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38434%34%32%0%
Colum Eastwood

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95026%43%31%–17%
21–24 Apr 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95732%40%28%–8%
20–23 Jan 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44933%38%29%–5%
4–7 Nov 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35131%39%30%–8%
12–15 Aug 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38434%39%27%–5%
Jim Allister

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95023%63%14%–40%
21–24 Apr 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95727%61%12%–34%
20–23 Jan 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44927%57%16%–30%
4–7 Nov 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35127%59%14%–32%
12–15 Aug 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38431%54%15%–23%

See also

Notes and References

  1. News: Pogatchnik . Shawn . 28 September 2022 . UK warns of snap Northern Ireland election if DUP won't share power . Politico . 29 September 2022.
  2. News: NI election looms as Stormont deadline passes . BBC News . 27 October 2022 . 28 October 2022.
  3. News: McClafferty . Enda . McCormack . Jayne . 2 November 2022 . NI election date to be confirmed soon – Steve Baker . BBC News . en-GB . 18 November 2022.
  4. News: 2023-01-19 . Stormont election: Further delay suggested as NI Protocol talks continue . en-GB . BBC News . 2023-01-22.
  5. News: O'Carroll . Lisa . 2023-02-09 . Northern Ireland assembly election to be delayed again . en-GB . The Guardian . 2023-02-09 . 0261-3077.
  6. Web site: 2023-02-09 . UK concedes reality of Northern Ireland deadlock, shifts election 'deadline' to 2024 . Shawn . Pogatchnik . 2023-02-09 . POLITICO . en-US.
  7. Web site: UK unveils DUP deal to restore Northern Ireland government. Reuters. 1 February 2024. Elizabeth Piper and Sarah Young.
  8. Web site: Northern Ireland appoints Irish nationalist as First Minister in historic shift. Reuters. 4 February 2024. Amanda Ferguson and Natalie Thomas.
  9. News: Carroll . Rory . 29 March 2024 . Sir Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as Democratic Unionist party leader . The Guardian . 29 March 2024.
  10. Web site: Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 . Legislation.gov.uk . en-GB . 7 May 2016.
  11. Web site: Sproule . Luke . 12 May 2022 . NI election results 2022: What does Sinn Féin's vote success mean? . BBC News . 14 May 2022.
  12. News: Simpson . Mark . Andrews . Chris . 27 October 2022 . DUP blocks NI government as election call looms . BBC News . 27 October 2022.
  13. https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9939/CBP-9939.pdf
  14. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/48/enacted
  15. News: Stormont: MLA pay cut bill passed in House of Lords. McCormack. Jayne. 5 December 2022. www.bbc.co.uk.
  16. Web site: Secretary of State for Northern Ireland – Statement on Executive Formation . UK Government . en-GB . 11 November 2022 . 9 November 2022.
  17. News: McCormack . Jayne . Fox . Matt . 9 November 2022 . Stormont stalemate: Heaton-Harris pushes back NI election deadline . BBC News . 18 November 2022.
  18. Web site: Latest Stormont deadline looms but little sign of snap election. Brendan. Hughes. 18 January 2023. BelfastLive.
  19. Web site: Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) (changed from Northern Ireland (Executive Formation)) Bill – Parliamentary Bills – UK Parliament.
  20. Web site: Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2022–23 – House of Commons Library.
  21. Web site: The Windsor Framework. Institute for Government. 27 March 2023 .
  22. News: Windsor Framework: Sinn Fein and SDLP call for restoration of Assembly following NI Protocol deal. Press Association. 27 February 2023. Belfast News Letter.
  23. News: DUP: No dissent within the party over Stormont boycott, says leader . BBC News . 5 October 2023 .
  24. News: Stormont stalemate: Deadline to restore Northern Ireland Executive to expire . BBC News . 18 January 2024 .
  25. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9939/
  26. https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3672
  27. Web site: Northern Ireland: New deal means goods will flow freely throughout UK – Jeffrey Donaldson . 30 January 2024 .