2024 Lithuanian parliamentary election explained

Ongoing:yes
Country:Lithuania
Previous Election:2020
Next Election:2028
Election Date:13 October 2024 (first round)
27 October 2024 (second round)
Seats For Election:All 141 seats in the Seimas
Majority Seats:71
Party1:Homeland Union
Last Election1:50
Current Seats1:49
Leader2:Ramūnas Karbauskis
Party2:Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union
Last Election2:32
Current Seats2:17
Leader3:Saulius Skvernelis
Party3:Democrats Union "For Lithuania"
Last Election3:new
Current Seats3:16
Leader4:Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen
Party4:Liberal Movement (Lithuania)
Last Election4:13
Current Seats4:13
Leader5:Vilija Blinkevičiūtė
Party5:Social Democratic Party of Lithuania
Last Election5:13
Current Seats5:14
Leader6:Aušrinė Armonaitė
Party6:Freedom Party (Lithuania)
Last Election6:11
Current Seats6:10
Leader7:Andrius Mazuronis
Party7:Labour Party (Lithuania)
Last Election7:10
Current Seats7:2
Leader8:Valdemar Tomaševski
Party8:Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance
Last Election8:3
Current Seats8:2
Leader9:Jonas Pinskus
Party9:Lithuanian Regions Party
Last Election9:3
Current Seats9:9
Leader10:Artūras Zuokas
Party10:Freedom and Justice
Last Election10:1
Current Seats10:0
Leader11:
Party11:Independents
Last Election11:4
Current Seats11:5
Percentage11:
Prime Minister
Before Election:Ingrida Šimonytė
Before Party:Homeland Union

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Lithuania by 13 October 2024,[1] [2] with a second round on 27 October 2024.[3]

Electoral system

See main article: Elections in Lithuania.

The Seimas has 141 members, elected to a four-year term in parallel voting, with 71 members elected in single-seat constituencies using the two-round system and 70 members elected by proportional representation.[4] The voting in the elections is open to all citizens of Lithuania who are at least 18 years old.

Parliament members in the 71 single-seat constituencies are elected in a majority vote, with a run-off held within 15 days, if necessary. The remaining 70 seats are allocated to the participating political parties using the largest remainder method. Parties normally need to receive at least 5% (7% for multi-party electoral lists) of the votes to be eligible for a seat. Candidates take the seats allocated to their parties based on the preference lists submitted before the election and adjusted by preference votes given by the voters.

Background

The 2020 election was won by the Homeland Union, which formed a coalition with the Liberal Movement and Freedom Party. The Šimonytė Cabinet was appointed by President Gitanas Nausėda on 7 December 2020, after the Seimas approved Ingrida Šimonytė as Prime Minister.[5] On 11 December, the Government program was approved, thus, the cabinet officially took office.[6] Major domestic and foreign events during the term include the COVID-19 pandemic in Lithuania, 2020–2021 Belarusian protests and the Belarus–European Union border crisis, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The 2023 Lithuanian municipal elections were won by the opposition Social Democratic Party of Lithuania, with the Homeland Union at second place, and the Homeland Union candidate Ingrida Šimonytė was defeated by incumbent Gitanas Nausėda in the 2024 Lithuanian presidential election with the largest share of the vote in the history of presidential elections in Lithuania. However, the Homeland Union finished at first place in the 2024 European Parliament election in Lithuania, with the Social Democrats at second place. The Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, which was the largest party in the Seimas prior to the 2020 parliamentary election, split, with the defectors forming the Union of Democrats "For Lithuania", and finished third in the 2023 municipal and the 2024 European Parliament elections.

Other notable changes in the political landscape since 2020 included the establishment of Dawn of Nemunas, led by presidential candidate Remigijus Žemaitaitis after his expulsion from Freedom and Justice due to his antisemitic statements, which grew in popularity after the 2024 presidential election, as well as the poor performance of the Labour Party, which failed to win a deputy in the European Parliament for the first time since its establishment in 2003, and which was subsequently abandoned by several of the party's members of parliament, which led to the collapse of the party's parliamentary group.[7]

Changes to the constitution and new electoral code

After passing amendment of Constitution's article № 56 in April 2022, to be eligible for election, candidates must be at least 21 years old on the election day, not under allegiance to a foreign state and permanently reside in Lithuania,[8] while previously, candidates needed to be at least 25 years old on the election day. Persons serving or due to serve a sentence imposed by the court 65 days before the election are not eligible. Also, judges, citizens performing military service, and servicemen of professional military service and officials of statutory institutions and establishments may not stand for election. In addition, a person who has been removed from office through impeachment may be elected after 10 year period after impeachment.[9] [10]

The Electoral Code was adopted on 23 June 2022. The Code replaced various elections' acts and introduced several changes to the parliamentary elections. Firstly, it gave possibility to establish more than one worldwide constituency. Secondly, it removed a ban of political parties' agitation on Saturdays (e. g. one day prior to the election).[11]

Impeached politicians that will be eligible for reelection

PoliticianPartyImpeachment dateEligibility for standing date
President of the Republic Rolandas PaksasIndependent6 April 20046 April 2014
Member of Seimas National Resurrection Party11 November 201011 November 2020
Member of Seimas Neringa VenckienėThe Way of Courage19 June 201419 June 2024

Boundary changes

In 2023, single-member constituencies were redrawn. Most boundary changes took part in Klaipėda, Kaunas, Vilnius and their suburbs.[12] [13]

LLRA–KŠS accused some boundary changes as being an attempt of "artificial dilution of the minority electorate".[14]

Participating parties and coalitions

The following is a list of parties which are registered as participants in the election by the Central Election Commission. 23 political parties were eligible to participate in the elections, having submitted their membership rolls before 10 April 2024, in compliance with legal requirements. 20 political parties registered for the elections before the deadline on 22 July 2024. [15] Three parties, Together with the Vytis, Movement for Forests - Young Lithuania and Christian Union, withdrew from the race on their own accord.[16] [17] [18] On 9 August 2024, 15 different electoral lists were registered. 1769 candidates will participate in the elections: 1112 men and 657 women. This number may decrease further after all applicants are verified to meet the requirements.[19]

Party / Electoral listAbbr.LeaderIdeologySeats
PartyElectoral listLast electionCurrent seats
bgcolor=Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats
TS–LKDGabrielius LandsbergisIngrida Šimonytė[20] Liberal conservatism
Christian democracy
bgcolor=Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union
LVŽSRamūnas KarbauskisAurelijus VerygaAgrarianism
Social conservatism
Union of Democrats "For Lithuania"
DSVLSaulius Skvernelis[21] Green conservatismsplit from LVŽS
bgcolor=Social Democratic Party of Lithuania
LSDPVilija Blinkevičiūtė[22] Social democracy
bgcolor=Liberals' Movement
LSViktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen[23] Classical liberalism
bgcolor=Freedom Party
LPAušrinė Armonaitė[24] Liberalism
bgcolor=Lithuanian Regions Party
LRPJonas Pinskus[25] Regionalism
bgcolor=Dawn of Nemunas
NARemigijus Žemaitaitis[26] Lithuanian nationalism
Regionalism
split from PLT
bgcolor=Coalition of Peace
Labour PartyDPViktor UspaskichViktor Uspaskich[27] Populism
bgcolor=Lithuanian Christian Democracy PartyLKDPMindaugas PuidokasChristian rightdid not participate
bgcolor=Samogitian PartyŽPIrena Stražinskaitė-GlinskienėRegionalism
bgcolor=Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance
LLRA-KŠSWaldemar Tomaszewski[28] Polish interests
Social conservatism
bgcolor=Lithuanian Green Party
LŽPIeva Budraitė[29] Green liberalism
bgcolor=Freedom and Justice
PLTArtūras Zuokas[30] Conservative liberalism
bgcolor=People and Justice Union
TTSPetras Gražulis[31] National conservatism
Euroscepticism
bgcolor=National Alliance
NS[32] National conservatism
Euroscepticism
bgcolor=Lithuanian People's Party
LLPTauras JakelaitisEduardas Vaitkus[33] Russophilia

Politicians not standing

Opinion polls

Parliamentary election poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and its background is shaded in the leading party's colour. The "Lead" column shows the percentage point difference between the two parties with the highest figures.

PollsterFieldwork datesSample sizeTS–LKDLVŽSLSDPLPLRLSLLRA−
KŠS
LRPTTSLTDSVLNANSLead
Spinter tyrimai19–29 July 20241,00716.813.33.521.55.310.711.817.04.5
Vilmorus11–21 July 20241,00015.713.84.326.44.37.11.74.8--10.29.9-10.7
Baltijos tyrimai21 June – 7 July 20241,00512.310.14.623.23.47.52.85.02.51.714.39.81.48.9
Spinter tyrimai18–28 June 20241,01315.68.83.221.36.09.18.913.46.7
2024 European elections9 June 2024691,57221.339.131.6617.988.105.425.785.255.451.255.953.793.35
Spinter tyrimai17–26 May 20241,01616.49.22.919.36.39.29.113.02.92.9
Baltijos tyrimai16–25 May 20241,02713.612.68.022.73.44.43.45.51.92.510.89.91.19.1
Spinter tyrimai17–25 April 20241,01815.49.63.220.45.19.98.47.42.95.0
Spinter tyrimai18–28 March 20241,00913.711.33.621.17.39.67.85.63.97.4
Baltijos tyrimai15–25 March 20241,11511.815.47.423.22.66.52.85.22.812.16.57.8
Vilmorus15–23 March 20241,00111.014.87.030.34.19.42.35.214.315.5
Baltijos tyrimai22 February – 5 March 20241,02112.711.35.822.34.34.83.24.73.215.34.57.0
Spinter tyrimai18–25 February 20241,01715.310.04.521.45.48.48.06.46.1
Vilmorus8–17 February 20241,00217.613.67.329.62.57.01.75.113.612.0
Baltijos tyrimai19–29 January 20241,02112.013.77.422.34.85.85.24.113.72.78.6
Spinter tyrimai19–26 January 20241,01215.110.82.922.95.68.29.75.92.97.8
Baltijos tyrimai15–30 December 20231,01714.113.47.121.04.47.93.35.02.03.917.13.9
Spinter tyrimai15–23 December 20231,01215.913.83.224.03.89.12.92.93.88.92.28.1
Vilmorus22 November – 2 December 20231,00012.612.55.932.74.65.91.95.13.612.320.1
Spinter tyrimai17–29 November 20231,01515.412.721.95.210.53.24.14.06.36.5
Baltijos tyrimai16–27 November 20231,01811.515.57.023.42.88.42.85.72.814.87.9
Vilmorus9–19 November 20231,00012.612.14.432.13.09.02.03.63.74.210.619.5
Baltijos tyrimai23 October – 7 November 20231,01311.914.19.725.92.89.91.44.61.43.513.611.8
Spinter tyrimai17–28 October 20231,01116.310.024.05.411.45.23.23.48.57.7
Vilmorus12–21 October 20231,00315.011.84.629.13.87.62.53.84.33.312.11.414.1
Spinter tyrimai18–26 September 20231,01315.39.44.722.85.712.63.55.08.97.5
Vilmorus14–23 September 20231,00319.212.44.531.93.77.41.73.92.84.09.314.7
Baltijos tyrimai24 August – 5 September 20231,01612.512.87.521.83.99.52.93.51.25.018.92.9
Spinter tyrimai20–29 July 20231,00917.412.13.819.64.210.73.33.912.42.2
Vilmorus17–19 July 20231,00316.012.65.231.04.36.91.63.92.12.612.315.0
Spinter tyrimai19–28 June 20231,01212.89.74.018.47.011.53.25.811.45.6
Baltijos tyrimai14–29 June 20231,02011.811.57.823.23.59.04.25.52.82.918.64.6
Baltijos tyrimai12–29 May 20231,00911.213.06.223.24.19.54.32.70.95.019.14.1
Spinter tyrimai19–26 May 20231,00913.112.55.420.75.59.73.45.19.47.6
Vilmorus17–21 May 20231,00013.015.46.229.83.97.01.62.61.44.413.514.4
Baltijos tyrimai20 April – 5 May 20231,02613.49.79.125.83.59.73.42.31.93.217.28.6
Spinter tyrimai18–27 April 20231,01416.613.72.723.53.89.83.810.16.7
Vilmorus14–22 April 20231,00015.613.13.928.84.18.02.33.62.63.312.913.2
Spinter tyrimai17–27 March 20231,01616.512.03.018.15.89.56.111.51.6
Vilmorus9–18 March 20231,00015.114.04.328.23.97.12.02.83.24.213.413.1
2023 municipal elections5 March 20231,169,17416.29.23.6717.453.556.955.332.472.60.926.681.121.25
Baltijos tyrimai15–28 February 20231,00314.210.08.918.33.47.44.83.62.34.718.30.6data-sort-value="0"Tie
Spinter tyrimai18–27 February 20231,01216.712.35.517.25.87.83.913.90.5
Vilmorus9–18 February 20231,00016.114.95.124.45.15.31.73.52.43.816.28.2
Baltijos tyrimai19–31 January 20231,02315.79.77.919.43.67.12.82.81.43.719.80.10.4
Spinter tyrimai18–27 January 20231,01016.413.14.617.66.88.93.017.30.3
Spinter tyrimai15–24 December 20221,01019.88.83.017.84.58.63.914.52.0
Vilmorus8–15 December 20221,00016.712.76.025.03.69.31.82.71.93.415.38.3
Baltijos tyrimai17 November – 2 December 20221,02612.211.37.316.23.89.53.02.62.18.618.90.32.7
Spinter tyrimai18–29 November 20221,01318.812.53.616.94.18.35.012.11.9
Vilmorus10–19 November 20221,00017.110.55.624.32.58.12.93.41.29.513.17.2
Baltijos tyrimai26 October – 8 November 20221,02615.712.48.017.73.77.52.63.22.28.016.11.6
Spinter tyrimai18–28 October 20221,01121.510.43.617.85.48.88.011.23.7
Vilmorus11–16 October 20221,00218.710.15.823.72.78.61.44.41.97.511.43.5
Spinter tyrimai20–30 September 20221,01018.710.15.817.66.19.77.510.11.1
Baltijos tyrimai16−27 September 20221,02413.410.68.320.03.67.04.23.42.48.915.74.3
Vilmorus15–24 September 20221,00018.911.65.922.42.86.41.95.42.88.612.32.5
Spinter tyrimai25 August – 2 September 20221,00619.110.83.612.77.89.86.414.54.6
Baltijos tyrimaiAugust 202215.010.66.418.33.19.42.72.21.18.720.11.8
Baltijos tyrimai12–28 July 20221,02115.87.46.520.02.59.93.32.21.812.716.93.1
Spinter tyrimai18–28 July 20221,01316.510.93.614.86.69.47.016.5data-sort-value="0"Tie
Vilmorus15–23 July 20221,00317.411.66.120.83.98.71.33.61.86.816.23.4
Spinter tyrimai18–28 June 20221,01519.79.54.216.45.28.07.517.02.7
Vilmorus9–18 June 20221,00318.111.54.722.54.27.61.14.32.28.114.74.4
Baltijos tyrimai16–28 May 20221,02115.47.36.817.13.78.52.92.53.010.720.93.8
Spinter tyrimai18–27 May 20221,01320.38.65.118.76.58.16.812.81.6
Vilmorus12–18 May 20221,00119.99.16.125.84.38.71.62.52.519.15.9
Spinter tyrimai20–28 April 20221,00720.110.26.113.96.59.36.414.85.3
Baltijos tyrimai13–27 April 20221,00914.76.66.319.02.99.53.81.01.010.722.03.0
Open Agency/Norstat15–22 April 20221,00023.411.84.516.66.57.12.51.32.05.512.46.8
Spinter tyrimai17–25 March 20221,00719.39.76.215.15.58.96.915.83.5
Baltijos tyrimai10–24 March 20221,00013.37.57.718.04.210.75.02.10.99.818.80.8
Vilmorus10–19 March 20221,00519.010.76.923.02.38.21.34.03.519.83.2
Baltijos tyrimai22 February – 3 March 20221,01716.68.78.817.14.19.53.71.40.78.819.52.4
Spinter tyrimai17–25 February 20221,01017.39.69.417.66.58.65.912.50.3
Vilmorus3–8 February 20221,00515.812.88.626.93.27.71.53.617.89.1
Baltijos tyrimai24 January – 4 February 20221,02211.913.413.423.94.510.54.51.51.511.913.5
Spinter tyrimai17–29 January 20221,01016.911.28.714.97.99.65.811.92.0
Spinter tyrimai13–25 December 20211,01217.010.66.617.27.411.35.711.30.2
Open Agency/Norstat10–18 December 20211,00224.68.97.517.84.69.82.40.94.910.51.76.8
Vilmorus10–18 December 20211,00017.513.79.932.03.810.91.25.514.5
Baltijos tyrimai16 November – 2 December 20211,00915.515.07.825.74.111.23.32.62.610.110.2
Spinter tyrimai11–28 November 20211,01516.513.49.019.48.09.03.05.02.9
Vilmorus18–27 November 20211,00019.317.68.727.34.79.43.24.58.0
Baltijos tyrimai17 October – 5 November 20211,00414.114.110.326.73.110.94.32.02.310.412.7
Spinter tyrimai18–28 October 20211,01517.413.29.819.57.411.44.42.1
Vilmorus15–22 October 20211,00016.716.19.828.94.610.82.25.212.2
Baltijos tyrimai17 September – 3 October 20211,00415.515.17.825.74.111.23.42.72.710.210.2
Spinter tyrimai17–26 September 20211,00918.613.89.421.28.010.13.02.6
Vilmorus9–16 September 20211,00321.617.49.429.63.010.12.02.58.0
Spinter tyrimai24–31 August 20211,01418.917.39.518.68.310.94.50.3
Baltijos tyrimai20–31 August 20211,00615.717.37.425.95.09.15.52.58.68.6
Vilmorus29 July – 5 August 20211,00019.523.28.723.64.48.12.64.00.4
Spinter tyrimai17–28 June 20211,00320.822.86.315.38.510.92.72.0
Vilmorus9–18 June 20211,00020.225.98.922.85.010.31.43.45.7
Baltijos tyrimai20 May – 2 June 20211,01817.322.011.920.05.412.94.95.12.0
Spinter tyrimai18–28 May 20211,01123.022.07.610.98.612.62.71.0
Vilmorus11–21 May 20211,00424.526.87.316.95.810.22.15.12.3
Spinter tyrimai19–28 April 20211,00623.723.17.48.29.012.53.60.6
Vilmorus8–17 April 20211,00129.226.56.711.76.99.11.07.02.7
Spinter tyrimai17–23 March 20211,01123.521.17.48.69.812.83.93.02.4
Spinter tyrimai17–26 February 20211,01425.618.35.86.511.812.94.54.37.3
Spinter tyrimai18–27 January 20211,01327.216.168.511.812.64.22.411.1
Spinter tyrimai10–20 December 20201,00723.319.78.17.811.712.14.63.6
Baltijos tyrimai6–30 November 20201,00422.719.010.59.411.312.94.71.92.54.23.7
2020 parliamentary election1,174,84325.7718.079.779.599.457.054.973.282.362.062.217.7

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: The forthcoming elections . https://web.archive.org/web/20240229231713/https://www.vrk.lt/en/numatomi . 2024-02-29 . 2024-02-29 . www.vrk.lt.
  2. Web site: 2023-11-28 . Lithuania starts registering voters abroad for next year's elections . 2024-02-29 . lrt.lt . . en.
  3. Web site: 2024-07-23 . Lithuania's general elections: 19 parties, 18 unaffiliated politicians register to run . 2024-07-27 . lrt.lt . en.
  4. Web site: Law on Elections to the Seimas . 14 May 2015 . Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania . 31 July 2015.
  5. Web site: 2020 . Lietuvos Respublikos Prezidentas . August 1, 2024 . www.lrp.lt.
  6. Web site: Lietuva turi naują Vyriausybę – Seimas pritarė programai, prisiekė ministrai. 11 December 2020.
  7. Web site: Seimo narys Bukauskas palieka Darbo partiją, rinkimuose dalyvaus savarankiškai . LRT . lt . 22 July 2024 . Per kelis mėnesius iš DP pasitraukė buvęs jos pirmininkas pastaraisiais metais Seimo narys Andrius Mazuronis, parlamentarai Viktoras Fiodorovas, Ieva Kačinskaitė-Urbonienė, Valdemaras Valkiūnas. Dėl to subyrėjo „darbiečių“ frakcija parlamente. Po šių pokyčių Darbo partijos steigėjas ir ilgametis jos vadovas, buvęs europarlamentaras V. Uspaskichas, pastaruosius dvejus metus aktyviai nedalyvavęs organizacijos veikloje, liepos pradžioje atkūrė narystę partijoje ir tapo laikinuoju jos pirmininku..
  8. Web site: XIV-1030 Lietuvos Respublikos Konstitucijos 56 straipsnio pakeitimo įstatymas .
  9. Web site: XIV-1029 Lietuvos Respublikos Konstitucijos 74 straipsnio pakeitimo įstatymas .
  10. Web site: Konstitucinis Teismas R. Paksui vilties nesuteikė . Lithuanian . The constitutional court did not give R. Paksas hope . 20 March 2014 . Delfi.lt . 31 July 2015.
  11. Web site: Rinkimų kodekso patvirtinimo, įsigaliojimo ir įgyvendinimo konstitucinio įstatymo projektas + Rin .
  12. Web site: November 30, 2023 . VIENMANDAČIŲ RINKIMŲ APYGARDŲ RIBŲ POKYČIAI . August 1, 2024 . www.vrk.lt.
  13. https://www.vrk.lt/documents/10180/786874/Apygard%C5%B3%20%C5%BEem%C4%97lapis+%28LT%29/0d5a2f3b-722a-4d93-ad31-39b37aeef594?t=1701452562550
  14. Web site: Zmiany granic okręgów wyborczych dotkną polską mniejszość narodową. December 6, 2023. August 8, 2024. Anna Pieszko. pl. Kurier Wileński.
  15. Web site: Dalyvauti Seimo rinkimuose VRK registravo 19 partijų . Central Election Commission . lt . 23 July 2024.
  16. Web site: 2024-07-22 prarado dalyvio statusą "KARTU SU VYČIU" POLITINĖ PARTIJA (PR) . Central Election Commission . lt . 22 July 2024.
  17. Web site: 2024-08-02 prarado dalyvio statusą SĄJŪDIS UŽ MIŠKUS – JAUNOJI LIETUVA (PR) . Central Election Commission . lt . 2 August 2024.
  18. Web site: 2024-08-09 prarado dalyvio statusą KRIKŠČIONIŲ SĄJUNGA (PR) . Central Election Commission . lt . 9 August 2024.
  19. Web site: Dėl 141 Seimo nario mandato planuoja varžytis 1769 būsimieji kandidatai . Central Election Commission . lt . 9 August 2024.
  20. Web site: Intriga baigėsi – Šimonytė ves konservatorių sąrašą į Seimo rinkimus . lrt.lt . . Lithuanian . 18 July 2024.
  21. Web site: Demokratų Vardan Lietuvos kandidatų sąraše – buvęs VST vadovas Pocius . lrt.lt . . Lithuanian . 8 July 2024.
  22. Web site: Socdemų sąraše į Seimą – patyrę politikai, olimpinė čempionė ir Sinkevičiaus pavardė . lrt.lt . . Lithuanian . 15 June 2024.
  23. Web site: Po Liberalo sąjūdžio reitingavimo – netikėta lyderystė: viršūnėje – Aleknos pavardė . lrt.lt . . Lithuanian . 4 July 2024.
  24. Web site: Laisvės partiją į Seimą ves Armonaitė, daugiausia reitingo balsų gavo Raskevičius . lrt.lt . . Lithuanian . 26 July 2024.
  25. Web site: Lietuvos regionų partijos kandidatų sąrašas: priekyje – Pinskus, gale – Pinskuvienė . LRT . lt . 2 August 2024.
  26. Web site: Partiją "Nemuno aušra" į Seimą ves Žemaitaitis ir Širinskienė . lrt.lt . . Lithuanian . 28 July 2024.
  27. Web site: Uspaskichas ves koalicinį sąrašą Seimo rinkimuose, jame – darbiečiai, dar dvi partijos . lrt.lt . . Lithuanian . 17 July 2024.
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