Next Israeli legislative election explained

Country:Israel
Previous Election:2022
Election Date:By 27 October 2026
Seats For Election:All 120 seats in the Knesset
Majority Seats:61
Ongoing:yes
Party1:Likud
Leader1:Benjamin Netanyahu
Current Seats1:32
Last Election1:32
Party2:Yesh Atid
Leader2:Yair Lapid
Current Seats2:24
Last Election2:24
Party3:Shas
Leader3:Aryeh Deri
Current Seats3:11
Last Election3:11
Party4:National Unity (Israel)
Leader4:Benny Gantz
Current Seats4:8
Last Election4:8
Party5:National Religious Party–Religious Zionism
Leader5:Bezalel Smotrich
Current Seats5:7
Last Election5:7
Party6:United Torah Judaism
Leader6:Yitzhak Goldknopf
Current Seats6:7
Last Election6:7
Party7:Otzma Yehudit
Leader7:Itamar Ben-Gvir
Current Seats7:6
Last Election7:6
Party8:Yisrael Beiteinu
Leader8:Avigdor Lieberman
Current Seats8:6
Last Election8:6
Party9:United Arab List
Leader9:Mansour Abbas
Current Seats9:5
Last Election9:5
Party10:Hadash–Ta'al
Leader10:Ayman Odeh
Current Seats10:5
Last Election10:5
Party11:The Democrats (Israel)
Leader11:Yair Golan
Current Seats11:4
Last Election11:4
Party12:New Hope
Leader12:Gideon Sa'ar
Current Seats12:4
Last Election12:4
Color12:
  1. 235298
Party13:Noam
Color13:
  1. 01AFF0
Leader13:Avi Maoz
Current Seats13:1
Last Election13:1
Prime Minister
Before Election:Benjamin Netanyahu
Before Party:Likud

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel by 27 October 2026 to elect the 120 members of the twenty-sixth Knesset. In late February 2024 it was suggested it was likely they would take place in January or February 2025.[1]

Background

After the 36th government lost its majority, the 2022 snap election was called. This resulted in the Netanyahu bloc gaining a majority,[2] and a government was successfully negotiated between Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Noam, Religious Zionist Party, United Torah Judaism and Shas. The coalition was sworn in on 29 December 2022.[3] [4]

With this new government, Netanyahu returned to the premiership, having previously been out of office since the anti-Netanyahu bloc won a majority in the 2021 election and formed a government without Netanyahu's Likud.

Five members of the National Unity party (Benny Gantz, Gadi Eizenkot, Gideon Sa'ar, Hili Tropper and Yifat Shasha-Biton) joined an emergency wartime government in October 2023 following the outbreak of the Israel–Hamas war. Gantz and Eizenkot also joined the Israeli war cabinet.[5] Sa'ar announced on 25 March 2024 that New Hope had resigned from the government.[6] Gantz and the rest of his National Unity party left the government on 9 June.[7]

Electoral system

The 120 seats in the Knesset are elected by closed list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The electoral threshold for the election is 3.25%.[8]

Two parties can sign a surplus vote agreement that allows them to compete for leftover seats as if they were running together on the same list. The Bader–Ofer method slightly favours larger lists, meaning that alliances are more likely to receive leftover seats than parties would be individually. If the alliance receives leftover seats, the Bader–Ofer calculation is applied privately, to determine how the seats are divided among the two allied lists.[9]

Timing

Per sections 8 and 9 of the Israeli quasi-constitutional Basic Law: Knesset, an election will typically be called approximately 4 years after the previous election, on the first or third Tuesday of the Hebrew month of Cheshvan, depending on whether or not the previous year was a Jewish Leap Year. An election can happen earlier if the government falls and the Knesset is dissolved, or later if the Knesset's term is extended by a supermajority vote.

The next election is scheduled to be held no later than 27 October 2026.[10] In late February 2024 Yoav Krakowsky, an Israeli journalist and radio reporter, suggested during an edition of the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation's Friday evening magazine programme that they would take place in January or February 2025.

After the 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel and subsequent Israel–Hamas war, some have called for the resignation of Prime Minister Netanyahu,[11] [12] with polls suggesting that more than 75% of Israelis believe he should step down.[13] [14] There have also been calls for a snap election once the war is over. Minister of Labor Yoav Ben-Tzur said that an election should occur within 90 days of the end of the war,[15] although he later walked those statements back.[16] Polling suggests that 64% of Israelis believe that an election should happen as soon as the war is over.

Political parties

See also: List of political parties in Israel.

2022 election results

See main article: List of members of the twenty-fifth Knesset.

The table below lists the results of the 2022 Israeli legislative election.

NameIdeologySymbolPrimary demographicLeader2022 result
Votes (%)Seats
LikudConservatism23.41%
Yesh AtidLiberal ZionismYair Lapid17.78%
Religious Zionist Party (including Noam and Otzma Yehudit)Religious Zionism
Kahanism
Israeli settlers
Modern Orthodox and Hardal Jews
Bezalel Smotrich10.83%
National UnityConservatism
Zionism
Benny Gantz9.08%
ShasReligious conservatismSephardi, Mizrahi, and Haredim JewsAryeh Deri8.24%
United Torah JudaismReligious conservatismYitzhak Goldknopf5.88%
Yisrael BeiteinuConservatism
Nationalism
Avigdor Lieberman4.49%
Ra'amIslamism
Social conservatism
Israeli Arab and Sunni Muslims
Negev Bedouin
Mansour Abbas4.07%
Hadash–Ta'alTwo-state solution
Secularism
Israeli ArabsAyman Odeh3.75%
LaborMerav Michaeli3.69%

Retiring incumbents

The table below lists all members of the Knesset (MK) who will not stand for re-election.

PartyNameYear first elected
DemocratsMerav Michaeli[17] 2013
Hadash–Ta'alAyman Odeh[18] 2015

Public expression of interest

Not running

Leadership elections and primaries

Leadership elections have been held by some parties to determine party leadership ahead of the election. Primary elections will be held by some parties in advance of the national election to determine the composition of their party list.

Labor

See main article: 2024 Israeli Labor Party leadership election. Party leader Merav Michaeli announced on 7 December 2023 that she was calling an early leadership election that she would not run in.[23] In response, Meretz chairman Tomer Reznik urged Labor to hold joint primaries with Meretz.[24]

On 6 May, the party announced the final slate of leadership candidates: Yair Golan, Itai Leshem, Azi Nagar and Avi Shaked.[25]

Golan won the leadership election, which was held on 28 May.[26] On 30 June 2024, Labor and Meretz announced an agreement to merge into a new party, The Democrats, with Golan as the new party's leader.[27] The merger was approved in July by a conference of Labor and Meretz delegates.[28]

Yesh Atid

See main article: 2024 Yesh Atid leadership election. Yesh Atid held its first leadership primary on 28 March 2024, in which party leader Yair Lapid narrowly beat MK Ram Ben-Barak 308 votes to 279, a margin of 29 votes.[29]

Opinion polls

See main article: Opinion polling for the next Israeli legislative election.

This graph shows the polling trends from the 2022 Israeli legislative election until the next election day using a 4-poll moving average. Scenario polls are not included here. For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats.

See also

Notes and References

  1. News: 23 February 2024 . חדשות שישי עם מאיה ראכלין 23.02.2024 . Friday news with Maya Rachlin 23.02.2024 . 24 February 2024 . . he . . From about the 50th minute of the video clip..
  2. News: 3 November 2022 . Netanyahu bloc wins majority in Knesset, final poll results show . Financial Times. 4 January 2023 . 4 January 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230104184245/https://www.ft.com/content/539db912-d743-4cfe-a721-236c251e81ba . live .
  3. Web site: Benjamin Netanyahu returns as PM of Israel's most far-right gov't. 9 November 2023 . . en . 4 January 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230104184245/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/29/netanyahu-to-be-sworn-in-as-head-of-new-far-right-israeli-govt . live .
  4. Web site: Benjamin Netanyahu sworn in as Israel's prime minister for sixth time. 9 November 2023 . . en . 4 January 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230104184245/https://news.sky.com/story/benjamin-netanyahu-to-be-sworn-in-as-israels-prime-minister-for-sixth-time-12776103 . live .
  5. News: Keller-Lynn . Carrie . 12 October 2023 . Knesset okays war cabinet; PM: Saturday 'most horrible day for Jews since Holocaust' . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20231012222230/https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-okays-war-cabinet-pm-saturday-most-horrible-day-for-jews-since-holocaust/ . 12 October 2023 . 28 March 2024 . The Times of Israel.
  6. Web site: Sokol. Sam. 25 March 2024 . Gideon Sa'ar quits coalition after Netanyahu fails to appoint him to war cabinet. 2 April 2024. The Times of Israel.
  7. News: Sokol. Sam. Gantz quits war government, says PM preventing 'true victory' over Hamas, urges elections. The Times of Israel. 9 June 2024. en. 6 July 2024.
  8. News: With Bader-Ofer method, not every ballot counts. The Jerusalem Post. 16 March 2014. 9 November 2023. 11 May 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190511083829/https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/With-Bader-Ofer-method-not-every-ballot-counts-394027. live.
  9. Web site: The Distribution of Knesset Seats Among the Lists—the Bader-Offer Method . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20190402221447/https://www.knesset.gov.il/lexicon/eng/seats_eng.htm . 2 April 2019 . www.knesset.gov.il.
  10. News: October 27, 2026: Judge sets date for next scheduled elections . . 20 April 2023. 9 November 2023.
  11. Web site: 7 November 2023 . Netanyahu facing resignation calls for Oct. 7 security failures, Gaza bombardment . 9 November 2023 . CBS News.
  12. News: Sokol . Sam . 7 November 2023 . Pro-Bibi Newspaper Changes Tune and Calls for His Resignation After War Ends . 9 November 2023 . Haaretz . en.
  13. Web site: Marsden . Ariella . 5 November 2023 . Netanyahu refusal to take responsibility for October 7 will be downfall . 9 November 2023 . The Jerusalem Post.
  14. Web site: Johnston . Holly . 5 November 2023 . Poll finds the majority want Benjamin Netanyahu to resign as Israel protests spread . 9 November 2023 . The National.
  15. News: Shas minister: I believe Netanyahu will have to call elections within 90 days of war's end . . 9 November 2023. 9 November 2023.
  16. News: Shas minister says comments on Netanyahu needing to call election after war were 'taken out of context' . . 9 November 2023. 9 November 2023.
  17. Web site: 2023-12-07 . מרב מיכאלי פורשת ממפלגת העבודה - ומקדימה את הפריימריז כלכליסט . 2024-07-03 . calcalist . he.
  18. News: Halabi . Einav . 2023-05-16 . איימן עודה פורש מהחיים הפוליטיים: "לא אתמודד לכנסת הבאה" . 2024-07-03 . Ynet . he.
  19. News: 20 June 2024 . Shaked open to working with Bennett, Liberman, and Sa'ar. 18 July 2024 . . en.
  20. News: 8 July 2024 . Gideon Sa’ar says former PM Bennett planning a return to politics. 18 July 2024 . . en. Sokol. Sam.
  21. News: 17 July 2024 . Liberman and Bennett meet in bid to forge new right-wing bloc, but who would lead it?. 18 July 2024 . . en. Yerushalmi. Shalom.
  22. News: 15 July 2024 . Ex-Mossad chief Yossi Cohen said to decide not to enter politics . 17 July 2024 . . en.
  23. Web site: Keller-Lynn. Carrie . 7 December 2023 . Assailed for left's Knesset woes, Michaeli says she will step down as Labor chief . 9 December 2023 . The Times of Israel.
  24. Web site: Marsden . Ariella . 7 December 2023 . Labor leader to quit politics, calls for primaries . 9 December 2023 . The Jerusalem Post.
  25. Web site: Sokol . Sam . Labor party announces the final slate of leadership candidates . . 6 May 2024. 6 May 2024.
  26. Web site: Sokol . Sam . Yair Golan wins landslide victory in Labor primary with promise to unite the left. . 10 June 2024 . 28 May 2024.
  27. News: Meretz, Labor Party sign agreement to merge parties under new party name 'The Democrats' . 30 June 2024 . Jerusalem Post . 30 June 2024.
  28. News: With an overwhelming majority, Meretz and Labor approve merge, becoming the Democrats . 13 July 2024 . . 12 July 2024.
  29. News: Sokol. Sam. 28 March 2024 . In surprise primary result, Lapid holds on to party leadership by a mere 29 votes. 28 March 2024 . The Times of Israel.