| Country: | Estonia |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2023 Estonian parliamentary election |
| Opinion Polls: | Opinion polling for the next Estonian parliamentary election |
| Previous Year: | 2023 |
| Seats For Election: | All 101 seats in the Riigikogu |
| Majority Seats: | 51 |
| Election Date: | By 7 March 2027 |
| Leader1: | Kristen Michal |
| Party1: | Estonian Reform Party |
| Last Election1: | 31.24%, 37 seats |
| Leader2: | Martin Helme |
| Party2: | Conservative People's Party of Estonia |
| Last Election2: | 16.05%, 17 seats |
| Image3: | Mihhail Kõlvart Pätsi monumendi avamisel. 2022 (cropped).jpg |
| Leader3: | Mihhail Kõlvart |
| Party3: | Estonian Centre Party |
| Last Election3: | 15.28%, 16 seats |
| Image4: | E200 |
| Leader4: | TBD |
| Party4: | Estonia 200 |
| Last Election4: | 13.33%, 14 seats |
| Image5: | Lauri Läänemets at the Opinion Festival 2022 in Paide, Estonia (cropped).jpg |
| Leader5: | Lauri Läänemets |
| Party5: | Social Democratic Party (Estonia) |
| Last Election5: | 9.27%, 9 seats |
| Image6: | Urmas Reinsalu 2023.jpg |
| Leader6: | Urmas Reinsalu |
| Party6: | Isamaa |
| Last Election6: | 8.21%, 8 seats |
| Prime Minister | |
| Before Election: | Kristen Michal |
| Before Party: | Estonian Reform Party |
Parliamentary elections will be held in Estonia by 7 March 2027 to elect all 101 members of the Riigikogu. Electoral district reform has been discussed for the next election.[1] [2]
Following the 2023 Estonian parliamentary election, in which the Reform Party managed to maintain its position as biggest party in parliament, its leader and incumbent Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was reconfirmed in the office, forming a coalition with the Social Democrats and Estonia 200.
In the first year, the party's performance in opinion polls suffered significantly from the party's decision to back several tax increases unpopular with the economically liberal voter base as well as due to a scandal involving party leader Kaja Kallas. In August 2023, she came under the international spotlight after it was revealed that her husband held a significant share in a transportation company, Stark Logistics, which continued business with Russia despite Kallas's previous calls for Estonian companies to cease operations in Russia in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[3] Kallas tried to minimise the affair and ignored the calls for her resignation from her political opponents, calling the controversy a "witch-hunt".[4]
On 15 July 2024 Prime Minister Kaja Kallas submitted her resignation triggering the immediate resignation of her entire cabinet. Kristen Michal succeeded her as Prime Minister.
After the 2023 parliamentary election, EKRE's support originally skyrocketed due to being the largest opposition party against the incumbent government, yet soon declined as voters began to see Isamaa as a more moderate, fiscally competent and unshakably pro-Ukraine alternative to the government.[5] [6]
In September 2023 Mihhail Kõlvart, then-mayor of Tallinn, won the Centre Party's leadership election. His victory marked a significant change in the party's direction, choosing to focus more on its Russophone electoral base and shifting to socially conservative and economically syncretic positions, with the party becoming seen as one specifically of the niche Russian minority concentrated in the capital Tallinn and Ida-Viru County.[7] [8] [9] As a result, in the following months the previous party leader Jüri Ratas and several other party members defected to other political forces, leaving Centre Party with one third of its initial parliamentary representation (down to only 6 MPs) and with an increasingly weaker position in opinion polls.[10] [11] [12]
In the months following the 2023 Estonian parliamentary election, Estonia 200 quickly saw its support plummet, which has mostly been attributed to various scandals and the fading of the party's image of novelty.[13]
For the first year since the last election, the Social Democrats remained the only party in the government coalition to avoid losing support in polling. This was attributed to the party members' statements on the party's policy positions, especially those of the leader of the party Lauri Läänemets, setting the Social Democrats ideologically apart from the two economically liberal parties in the coalition. Moreover, the party gained MPs and members from the defections out of the Centre Party, including seeing its number of MPs increase from 9 to 13.[14] [15]
Starting August 2023, Isamaa saw its support quickly rocket to unprecedented historic highs.[16] [17] Those gains in polling were mainly attributed to the party gaining 3 MPs and several other members defecting from the Centre Party, EKRE being seen as too extreme of an option as an alternative to the government coalition and the success of the newly elected party leader Urmas Reinsalu, and his frequent public statements on any topical issues, in attracting disgruntled Reform Party voters unhappy with its fiscal policy.[18] [19] [20]
See also: Politics of Estonia. The Riigikogu is made up of 101 seats and its representatives are elected by proportional representation in twelve multi-member constituencies.[21] First, seats are to be filled in 12 constituencies of 5 to 16 seats depending on their population, and the remaining seats, known as "compensation seats", are allocated using the d'Hondt method to all parties that exceeded the 5% electoral threshold, to bring the results in terms of seats as close as possible to those of the vote of the population.[22] [23] Voters have the possibility of casting a preferential vote for one of the candidates on the list for which they are voting. If a candidate collects more preferential votes than the amount of the simple quotient in his constituency, they are declared elected even if the list for which they are candidate for fails to cross the 5% electoral threshold.
| Electoral district | Seats | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn and Kristiine districts in Tallinn | 10 | |
| 2 | Kesklinn, Lasnamäe and Pirita districts in Tallinn | 13 | |
| 3 | Mustamäe and Nõmme districts in Tallinn | 8 | |
| 4 | Harju (excluding Tallinn) and Rapla counties | 16 | |
| 5 | Hiiu, Lääne and Saare counties | 6 | |
| 6 | Lääne-Viru county | 5 | |
| 7 | Ida-Viru county | 6 | |
| 8 | Järva and Viljandi counties | 7 | |
| 9 | Jõgeva and Tartu counties (excluding Tartu) | 7 | |
| 10 | City of Tartu | 8 | |
| 11 | Võru, Valga and Põlva counties | 8 | |
| 12 | Pärnu county | 7 | |
| Source: Eesti Rahvusringhääling[24] | |||
See main article: Opinion polling for the next Estonian parliamentary election.