| Election Name: | Next Canarian regional election |
| Country: | Canary Islands |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2023 Canarian regional election |
| Previous Year: | 2023 |
| Seats For Election: | All 70 seats in the Parliament of the Canary Islands |
| Majority Seats: | 36 |
| Opinion Polls: |
|
| Election Date: | No later than 27 June 2027 |
| 1Blank: | Island vote |
| 2Blank: | Island % |
| 3Blank: | Island swing |
| Leader1: | TBD |
| Party1: | Socialist Party of the Canaries |
| Leader Since1: | TBD |
| Leaders Seat1: | TBD |
| Last Election1: | 23 seats, 27.2% |
| Seats Before1: | 23 |
| Seats Needed1: | 13 |
| Leader2: | Fernando Clavijo |
| Party2: | CCa |
| Leader Since2: | 12 September 2014 |
| Leaders Seat2: | Regional |
| Last Election2: | 19 seats, 22.1% |
| Seats Before2: | 19 |
| Seats Needed2: | 17 |
| Leader3: | Manuel Domínguez |
| Party3: | People's Party of the Canary Islands |
| Leader Since3: | 23 January 2022 |
| Leaders Seat3: | Regional |
| Last Election3: | 15 seats, 19.3% |
| Seats Before3: | 15 |
| Seats Needed3: | 21 |
| Leader4: | Román Rodríguez |
| Party4: | NC–BC |
| Leader Since4: | 26 February 2005 |
| Leaders Seat4: | None |
| Last Election4: | 5 seats, 7.9% |
| Seats Before4: | 5 |
| Seats Needed4: | 31 |
| Leader5: | Nicasio Galván |
| Party5: | Vox (political party) |
| Leader Since5: | 29 December 2022 |
| Leaders Seat5: | Gran Canaria |
| Last Election5: | 4 seats, 7.9% |
| Seats Before5: | 4 |
| Seats Needed5: | 32 |
| Leader6: | Casimiro Curbelo |
| Party6: | Gomera Socialist Group |
| Leader Since6: | 6 March 2015 |
| Leaders Seat6: | La Gomera |
| Last Election6: | 3 seats, 0.7% |
| Seats Before6: | 3 |
| Seats Needed6: | 33 |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Fernando Clavijo |
| Before Party: | CCa |
The next Canarian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of the Canary Islands. All 70 seats in the Parliament will be up for election. If customary practice is maintained, the election will be held on Sunday, 23 May 2027, simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
The Parliament of the Canary Islands is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Canary Islands, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Canarian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Canary Islands and in full enjoyment of their political rights.
The 70 members of the Parliament of the Canary Islands are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of 15 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties can also enter the seat distribution as long as they reach four percent regionally. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the islands of El Hierro, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, La Gomera, La Palma, Lanzarote and Tenerife, as well as an additional constituency comprising the whole archipelago, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:[1] [2]
| Seats | Constituencies | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Gran Canaria, Tenerife | |
| 9 | Regional | |
| 8 | Fuerteventura, La Palma, Lanzarote | |
| 4 | La Gomera | |
| 3 | El Hierro |
The term of the Parliament of the Canary Islands expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Canary Islands (BOC), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which meant that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree shall be published in the BOC no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 27 June 2027.[1] [2] [3]
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of the Canary Islands and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time.[4]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | |||||
| Canarian Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 23 | 23 | |||
| Canarian Nationalist Parliamentary Group (CCa) | CCa | 19 | 19 | |||
| People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 15 | 15 | |||
| New Canaries–Canarian Bloc Parliamentary Group (NC–BC) | NC–BC | 5 | 5 | |||
| Vox Parliamentary Group | Vox | 4 | 4 | |||
| Gomera Socialist Group Parliamentary Group (ASG) | ASG | 3 | 3 | |||
| Mixed Parliamentary Group | AHI | 1 | 1 | |||
The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Candidate | Ideology | Previous result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||||
| PSOE | TBD | Social democracy | 27.17% | ||||||||
| CCa | Fernando Clavijo | Regionalism Canarian nationalism Centrism | 22.08% | ||||||||
| PP | Manuel Domínguez | Conservatism Christian democracy | 19.33% | ||||||||
| NC–BC | Román Rodríguez | Canarian nationalism Social democracy | 7.93% | ||||||||
| Vox | Nicasio Galván | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism | 7.86% | ||||||||
| ASG | Casimiro Curbelo | Insularism Social democracy | 0.74% | ||||||||
| AHI | Raúl Acosta (politician) | Raúl Acosta | Insularism Canarian nationalism Centrism | 0.18% | |||||||
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 36 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Canary Islands.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | Lead | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ElectoPanel/GMG[5] | 1–24 May 2024 | 1,207 | ? | 25.7 | 23.9 | 22.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | 58.2 | 33.3 | 11.4 | 30.4 | 4.5 | 7.6 | – | – | – | – | 10.5 | 2.9 | ||||
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | 52.0 | 27.2 | 22.1 | 19.3 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | 5.1 | ||