New normal explained

A new normal is a state to which an economy, society, etc. settles following a crisis, when this differs from the situation that prevailed prior to the start of the crisis (the "old normal").^[1] The term has been employed retroactively in relation to World War I, World War II, the September 11 attacks, the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the aftermath of the Great Recession, the COVID-19 pandemic and other events.^[2]

Usage history

World War I

In 1918, Henry A. Wise Wood posted a dilemma,

Dot-com bubble

The phrase was extensively used by Roger McNamee in his 2003 interview to Fast Company while describing the new normal in technology development in regards to business and finance after the dot-com bubble bust,

2005 avian influenza

The phrase was used in 2005 by Peter M. Sandman and Jody Lanard in relation to methods of manipulation of attitudes of the public towards avian influenza. They explained that the initial, typically temporary, fearfulness of a novel risk such as a flu pandemic is something to be guided, that this initial period is a "teachable moment" and offers the opportunity of establishing a "new normal".^[3]

2008 financial crisis

The phrase was used in the context of cautioning the belief of economists and policy makers that industrial economies would revert to their most recent means post the 2007–2008 financial crisis.^[4]

The 29 January 2009 edition of the Philadelphia City Paper quoted Paul Glover referring to the need for "new normals" in community development, when introducing his cover story "Prepare for the Best".^[5]

The 2010 Per Jacobsson lecture delivered by Mohamed A. El-Erian at the International Monetary Fund, was titled "Navigating the New Normal in Industrial Countries". In the lecture El-Erian stated that "Our use of the term was an attempt to move the discussion beyond the notion that the crisis was a mere flesh wound...instead the crisis cut to the bone. It was the inevitable result of an extraordinary, multiyear period which was anything but normal". El-Erian's lecture cites a 18 May 2008 Bloomberg News article written by journalists Rich Miller and Matthew Benjamin for first using the term: "Post-Subprime Economy Means Subpar Growth as New Normal in U.S."^[6]

The phrase has subsequently been used by ABC News,^[7] BBC News,^[8] the New York Times, and formed part of a question by Candy Crowley, the moderator of the Second U.S. presidential debate of 2012.^[9]

2012 China's economic slowdown

Since 2012, China's economy has shown a marked slowdown, with growth rates declining from double digit levels (before the 2007-2009 financial crisis) to around 7% in 2014. In 2014, a statement by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, indicated that China was entering a 'new normal' .^[10] This term was subsequently popularised by the press and came to refer to expectations of 7% growth rates in China for the foreseeable future. It was indicative of the Chinese government's anticipation of moderate but perhaps more stable economic growth in the medium-to-long term.

COVID-19 pandemic

During the earlier parts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the term new normal was used to refer to changes in human behavior during the pandemic or speculated changes after the pandemic.^{[11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17]}

In May 2020, physicians at the University of Kansas Health System predicted that daily life for most people would change during the pandemic after the lifting of lockdowns. This would include limiting person-to-person contact, like handshakes and hugs, as well as maintaining distance from others, known as social distancing. They predicted things would change again after vaccines became available.^[18]

In Europe, the term "new normal", first conceptualized in 2018 by Austrian philosopher and political scholar Paul Sailer-Wlasits, has become a popular buzzword in contemporary politics.^{[19] [20]} Initially introduced in the German-speaking world, Paul Sailer-Wlasits associated the term with various phenomena, including political populism and the 45th U.S. administration under Donald Trump, which he critically dubbed the "new global normal".^[21] Since then, the phrase has gained traction among politicians in Austria, Germany, and Spain.

In Austria, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz incorporated the term into his rhetoric typically based on a few catchy buzzwords from mid-April 2020, establishing it as a new political buzzword.^[22] The Austrian media reacted critically to this, questioning whether this was intended to convey a permanent erosion of civil liberties.^{[23] [24]}

Criticism

Some commentators objected of overuse and misuse of the phrase by the media while describing atypical situations or behaviors, which turned it into a cliché.^{[25] [26] [2]} Sociological research has also shown this terminology does not adequately capture societal shifts that occur during times of major disruption, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.^[27]

In popular culture

• Robert A. Heinlein used the phrase in his 1966 novel The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress, with a character telling lunar colonists:
• The New Normal is an American sitcom that aired on NBC from September 10, 2012, to April 2, 2013.
• A dramedy produced by Nigerian filmmaker Teniola Olatoni Ojigbede in 2020.^[28]

See also

• Return to normalcy, also concerned with trying to emerge from abnormal periods

Further reading

• Assessing the New Normal: Liberty and Security for the Post-September 11 United States. Lawyers Committee for Human Rights, 2003
• Briscoe, Jill. The New Normal: Living a Fear-Free Life in a Fear-Driven World, Muptnomah Publishers, 2005.
• Etzioni, Amitai. The New Normal: Finding a Balance between Individual Rights and the Common Good. New Brunswick, New Jersey: Transaction Publishers, 2015.
• McNamee, Roger, and David Diamond. The New Normal: Great Opportunities in a Time of Great Risk. New York: Portfolio, 2004.
• Porter, Suzanne. After 911 in the 'New'-Normal: Who Are We? Why Are We Here? Where Are We Going?. Author House, 2003
• Taylor, Vickie. The New Normal: How FDNY Firefighters are Rising to the Challenge of Life After September 11. Counseling Service Unit of the FDNY, 2002

External links

• Our new normal, in pictures, CNN, November 23, 2020
• The New Normal?, 7-country report drawing from a survey of 14,000 people on the impacts of COVID-19 on trust, social cohesion, democracy and expectations for an uncertain future in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland.

Notes and References

1. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext
2. Web site: There's nothing new about the 'new normal' - and here's why. 2020-09-26. World Economic Forum. 5 June 2020 . en.
3. Web site: Peter M. Sandman and Jody Lanard . Bird Flu: Communicating the Risk . Pan american Health Organisation / World Health Organisation . 25 August 2020 . 5 . 2005.
4. Book: Navigating the New Normal in Industrial Countries . 18 October 2012 . 15 December 2010 . International Monetary Fund . 978-1-4552-1168-5 . 12–.
5. https://web.archive.org/web/20090201080733/http://www.citypaper.net/articles/2009/01/29/gotta-find-a-better-way/ "Gotta Find a Better Way", Philadelphia City Paper, January 29, 2009
6. Web site: 2008-05-18. Post-Subprime Economy Means Subpar Growth as New Normal in U.S.. 2020-09-26. www.bloomberg.com.
7. News: Alice . Gomstyn . Finance: Americans adapt to the 'New Normal' . ABC News . 15 June 2009 .
8. News: Is America's high jobless rate the new normal? . BBC News Online . 10 August 2012 .
9. News: Glen . Johnson . Candidates aggressive in 2nd debate . Boston Globe . 16 October 2012 .
10. Web site: 2628613 . 2015 . China's 'New Normal': Challenges Ahead for Asia-Pacific Trade . United Nations ESCAP . Saggu, A. . Anukoonwattaka, W. . amp.
11. Saeed Elnaj. The 'New Normal' And The Future Of Technology After The Covid-19 Pandemic, Forbes, Jan 25, 2021
12. David Hochman. The New Normal: What Comes After COVID-19? Experts predict how the pandemic will change our lives, AARP, June 8, 2020.
13. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-06-25/the-new-normal-after-the-coronavirus-pandemic The New Normal After the Coronavirus Pandemic
14. Sharon Kirkey. After the COVID-19 crisis ends, what does our 'new normal' look like?, national Post, May 2, 2020
15. Brian O'Keefe. What comes next: How leaders can cope with America’s ‘new normal’, Fortune, February 4, 2021
16. Eric Lloyd and Kaleb Vinton. Special Report: The New Normal – The Changes That Will Outlast COVID-19, WWTV/WWUP-TV 9&10 News, February 18, 2021
17. https://www.elon.edu/u/imagining/surveys/xii-2021/post-covid-new-normal-2025/ Survey XII: Digital New Normal 2025 – After the Outbreak: Hopes and worries for the evolution of humans and digital life in the wake of the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic
18. Web site: The 'new normal' after coronavirus . May 1, 2020 . Kansas Capitol Bureau . bot: unknown . https://web.archive.org/web/20201130174452/https://www.ksn.com/news/capitol-bureau/the-new-normal-after-coronavirus/ . 30 November 2020 .
19. Web site: Sailer-Wlasits . Paul . 7 September 2018 . The New Normal: Woran wir uns gewöhnen müssen . 2023-04-22 . DerStandard.at . de.
20. Web site: Pesendorfer . David . 28 March 2021 . Der Erfinder der "Neuen Normalität" . 2023-04-23 . News.at . de.
21. Web site: Rötzer . Florian . 10 May 2020 . Die neue Normalität: "Gewöhnt Euch dran" . 2023-04-22 . Telepolis.de . de.
22. Web site: Münch . Peter . Österreich: Kurz will zu "neuer Normalität" finden . 2022-11-06 . Süddeutsche.de . de.
23. Web site: Kurz neue Normalität - Google Search . 2022-11-06 . www.google.de.
24. Web site: red . ORF at/Agenturen . 2020-04-22 . Nationalrat: Debatte über Schlagwort "neue Normalität" . 2022-11-06 . news.ORF.at . de.
25. Catherine Rampell. The New Normal is Actually Pretty Old, The New York Times, January 11, 2011
26. Josie Cox. COVID-19 And The Corporate Cliché: Why We Need To Stop Talking About ‘The New Normal’, Forbes, April 22, 2020
27. Deejay . Aleks . Henne . Kathryn . 2023-10-21 . Creating a New Normal? Technosocial Relations, Mundane Governance and Pandemic-Related Disruption in Everyday Life . Sociology . en . 10.1177/00380385231205135 . 0038-0385. free .
28. Laura Berger. American Black Film Fest 2020 Women Directors: Meet Teniola Olatoni Ojigbede – “The New Normal”, Women and Hollywood, August 24, 2020