2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election explained

See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

Election Name:2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election
Country:New Mexico
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2014 New Mexico gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2014
Next Election:2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election
Next Year:2022
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Image1:File:Michelle Lujan Grisham official photo (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee1:Michelle Lujan Grisham
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate1:Howie Morales
Popular Vote1:398,368
Percentage1:57.20%
Nominee2:Steve Pearce
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate2:Michelle Garcia Holmes
Popular Vote2:298,091
Percentage2:42.80%
Map Size:200px
Governor
Before Election:Susana Martinez
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Michelle Lujan Grisham
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of New Mexico, concurrently with the election of New Mexico's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

Incumbent Republican governor Susana Martinez was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Following party primaries on June 5, 2018, U.S. Representative Steve Pearce was the Republican nominee and U.S. Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham was the Democratic nominee. Lujan Grisham won the election by a substantial margin, which in fact was a complete and exact reversal of the 2014 gubernatorial results. Her win also signaled a continuation of the pattern of the partisanship of the office changing every two terms, beginning with Gary Johnson's first election in 1994. Furthermore, the pattern of the partisanship changing with each officeholder was continued, a pattern first started after Toney Anaya left office in 1987. Furthermore, the margin between the candidates (57.2% to 42.8%) was the same as the previous election, albeit with the parties switched.

Background

At the presidential level, New Mexico has begun to trend into a Democratic-leaning swing state. It has gone Democratic in all but one presidential election since 1992. The only break in this trend came in 2004, when George W. Bush won it by less than a point. However, in 2008, Barack Obama won the state over John McCain by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points over Mitt Romney. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by eight points.

However, in 2010, then-District Attorney of New Mexico's Third Judicial District Susana Martinez won the election, becoming the first US Latina Governor, over Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, former running mate of two-term Democrat Bill Richardson, by approximately seven points. In 2014, Martinez was re-elected over state Attorney General Gary King by nearly 15 points. It has been described as one of the Democrats' best chances at a pickup, due to Gov. Martinez's unpopularity and because "she's leaving behind a high unemployment rate and struggling education system."[1]

The 2018 primary election results show 116,311 votes for Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham and a total of 175,182 for all three Democratic candidates while Republican candidate/nominee Steve Pearce received 74,705; note that 23% of New Mexico's registered voters are third party or independents (280,000), who do not vote in the primary election.

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
Declined

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Results

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jeff
Apodaca		Joe
Cervantes		Michelle
OtherUndecided
Research & Polling, Inc.[28] May 20–24, 2018444 (LV)± 4.6%15%9%57%–19%
GQR Research (D)[29] February 14–19, 2018400 (LV)± 4.9%13%6%72%2%6%
GQR Research (D)[30] October 12–18, 2017446 (LV)± 4.6%10%3%75%2%10%

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Results

Libertarian primary

Based on the party's voter registration numbers and presidential nominee Gary Johnson's result in 2016, the Libertarian Party holds major-party status in New Mexico.[39] Under New Mexico law, both gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates must receive each at least 230 signatures from registered Libertarian voters to formally receive the nomination and be placed on the ballot as the Libertarian nominees. Both Walsh and Dunn failed to meet that requirement and were not on the ballot.[40]

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Declined

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

Results

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[47] October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[48] November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[49] November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[50] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[51] November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[52] November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[53] November 5, 2018
Fox News[54] November 5, 2018
Politico[55] November 5, 2018
Governing[56] November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Steve
Pearce (R)		Michelle Lujan
Grisham (D)		Undecided
Research Co.[57] November 1–3, 2018450 (V)± 4.6%41%53%6%
Research & Polling, Inc.[58] October 26 – November 1, 2018993 (LV)± 3.1%43%53%4%
Carroll Strategies[59] October 29, 20181,200 (LV)± 2.8%45%51%4%
Emerson College[60] October 24–26, 2018936 (LV)± 3.4%44%53%4%
GQR Research (D)[61] October 22–26, 2018600 (LV)± 4.0%44%53%4%
Pacific Market Research[62] October 19–24, 2018400 (LV)± 4.9%39%48%13%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[63] September 20–24, 2018932 (LV)–40%44%16%
Research & Polling, Inc.[64] September 7–13, 2018966 (LV)± 3.1%43%50%–
Global Strategy Group (D)[65] August 27–30, 2018601 (LV)± 4.0%42%52%5%
GQR Research (D)[66] August 18–22, 2018600 (LV)± 4.0%44%52%–
Emerson College[67] August 17–18, 2018500 (RV)± 4.6%40%42%18%
The Tarrance Group (R)[68] April 9–12, 2018608 (LV)± 4.1%45%47%8%
The Tarrance Group (R)[69] May 20–23, 2017605 (RV)± 4.1%43%47%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Steve
Pearce (R)		Michelle Lujan
Grisham (D)		Bob
Walsh (L)		Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[70] July 2018500 (LV)–37%44%7%11%
SurveyUSA[71] June 19–23, 2018535 (LV)± 5.0%38%51%3%8%
Carroll Strategies[72] June 15–16, 20181,199 (LV)± 2.8%42%51%3%4%

Results

By county

CountyMichelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic		Steve Pearce
Republican		MarginTotal votes cast
%%%
Bernalillo149,48062.10%91,22137.90%58,25924.20%240,701
Catron51127.73%1,33272.27%-821-44.55%1,843
Chaves5,34832.02%11,35267.98%-6,004-35.95%16,700
Cibola3,98855.94%3,14144.06%84711.88%7,129
Colfax2,32749.91%2,33550.09%-8-0.17%4,662
Curry3,10630.41%7,10769.59%-4,001-39.18%10,213
De Baca22928.06%58771.94%-358-43.87%816
Doña Ana36,95460.64%23,98539.36%12,96921.28%60,939
Eddy4,63129.29%11,17870.71%-6,547-41.41%15,809
Grant7,04359.72%4,75040.28%2,29319.44%11,793
Guadalupe1,02160.27%67339.73%34820.54%1,694
Harding17837.24%30062.76%-122-25.52%478
Hidalgo78548.25%84251.75%-57-3.50%1,627
Lea3,08622.15%10,84577.85%-7,759-55.70%13,931
Lincoln2,62533.48%5,21666.52%-2,591-33.04%7,841
Los Alamos6,00558.61%4,24041.39%1,76517.23%10,245
Luna2,96748.30%3,17651.70%-209-3.40%6,143
McKinley13,11771.46%5,23828.54%7,87942.93%18,355
Mora1,66471.05%67828.95%98642.10%2,342
Otero6,45037.73%10,64462.27%-4,194-24.53%17,094
Quay1,14437.03%1,94562.97%-801-25.93%3,089
Rio Arriba9,35273.00%3,45927.00%5,89346.00%12,811
Roosevelt1,43030.74%3,22269.26%-1,792-38.52%4,652
San Juan13,34735.78%23,96164.22%-10,614-28.45%37,308
San Miguel7,00175.78%2,23824.22%4,76351.55%9,239
Sandoval30,42555.09%24,80344.91%5,62210.18%55,228
Santa Fe52,69278.54%14,39421.46%38,29857.09%67,086
Sierra1,88039.81%2,84360.19%-963-20.39%4,723
Socorro3,59657.44%2,66442.56%93214.89%6,260
Taos11,80681.46%2,68718.54%9,11962.92%14,493
Torrance2,04838.17%3,31761.83%-1,269-23.65%5,365
Union41528.15%1,05971.85%-644-43.69%1,474
Valencia11,71748.07%12,65951.93%-942-3.86%24,376
Total398,36857.20%298,09142.80%100,27714.40%696,459

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Grisham won 2 of 3 congressional districts, with Pearce winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[73]

DistrictPearceLujan GrishamRepresentative
39%61%Michelle Lujan Grisham
Deb Haaland
53%47%Steve Pearce
Xochitl Torres Small
39%61%Ben Ray Luján

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official Governor campaign websites

Official Lt. Governor campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Phillips, Amber, "The top 10 gubernatorial races of 2018, "The Washington Post", January 6, 2018
  2. News: Coleman. Michael. Pearce to run for governor of New Mexico. July 10, 2017. Albuquerque Journal. July 10, 2017.
  3. News: Q&A: Land Commissioner Dunn has his own proposal to fund early childhood programs. NMPolitics.net. Haussamen. Heath. August 10, 2016. December 8, 2016.
  4. News: Pearce confirms he's weighing run for governor. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Oxford. Andrew. May 13, 2017. May 15, 2017.
  5. News: Land Commissioner Dunn will announce his political plans early next week. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Terrell. Steve. July 10, 2017. July 12, 2017.
  6. News: John Sanchez NOT running for governor. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Terrell. Steve. July 11, 2017. July 12, 2017.
  7. News: Newly registered Republican makes bid to become GOP lieutenant governor nominee. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Oxford. Andrew. November 30, 2017. December 6, 2017.
  8. News: Native American running for GOP lieutenant governor spot. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Chacón. Daniel J.. August 15, 2017. September 1, 2017.
  9. News: Republican drops out of race for lieutenant governor, cites residency rules. Albuquerque Journal. Boyd. Dan. November 17, 2017. November 20, 2017.
  10. News: Campaign Trail Dust: Not So Fast On GOP Lt. Gov. Nod; Race Developing, Latest Perceptions On Dem Guv Chase And Our Continuing Crime Wave Coverage. New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Monahan. Joe. August 16, 2017. September 1, 2017.
  11. News: U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham announces 2018 gubernatorial bid. Albuquerque Journal. Boyd. Dan. December 13, 2016. December 13, 2016.
  12. News: Udall said no, but some Dems still looking at 2018 run for governor. New Mexico Political Report. Reichbach. Matthew. December 8, 2016. December 7, 2016.
  13. News: Jeff Apodaca to run for governor. Santa Fe New Mexican. Oxford. Andrew. May 3, 2017. May 3, 2017.
  14. News: Las Cruces legislator cites budget, jobs crisis for why he's running for governor. NMPolitics.net. Peters. Joey. July 7, 2017. July 10, 2017.
  15. News: Balderas to seek re-election as AG, won't run for governor. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Terrell. Steve. May 16, 2017. May 17, 2017.
  16. Web site: Santa Fe mayor also considering running for governor. Haussamen, Heath. New Mexico Politics. December 9, 2016. December 9, 2016.
  17. News: Is the Governor's Office the next stop for Mayor Gonzales?. Albuquerque Journal. Last. T.S.. November 28, 2014. July 6, 2016.
  18. News: Citing strength as senator, Udall says he won't run for governor in 2018. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Terrell. Steve. December 7, 2016. December 8, 2016.
  19. News: Gonzales announces bid for lt. gov. in crowded Dem field. Nott. Robert. December 9, 2017. The Santa Fe New Mexican. December 11, 2017.
  20. News: Who wants to be New Mexico's next governor?. Albuquerque Journal. Coleman. Michael. November 10, 2016. November 10, 2016.
  21. News: '18 Guv Positioning Takes Shape. New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Monahan. Joe. March 10, 2015. March 18, 2015.
  22. News: Q&A: Auditor Keller says better funding his office would protect tax dollars. NMPolitics.net. Haussamen. Heath. May 12, 2016. July 14, 2016.
  23. News: Governor's race could get crowded. Albuquerque Journal. Boyd. Dan. December 10, 2016. December 11, 2016.
  24. News: Udall weighs run for governor in 2018. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Terrell. Steve. November 9, 2016. November 10, 2016.
  25. News: Udall won't run for governor in 2018. Albuquerque Journal. Coleman. Michael. December 7, 2016. December 7, 2016.
  26. News: Udall decides against running for governor, says he's needed in D.C.. NMPolitics.net. Haussamen. Heath. December 7, 2016. December 7, 2016.
  27. News: One-time gubernatorial candidate Webber backs Lujan Grisham. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Terrell. Steve. July 13, 2017. July 14, 2017.
  28. https://www.abqjournal.com/1177219/journal-poll-big-lead-for-lujan-grisham-us-representative-has-almost-4to1-margin-over-closest-challenger.html Research & Polling, Inc.
  29. https://www.scribd.com/document/372634523/NM-Gov-GQR-D-for-Michelle-Lujan-Grisham-D-Feb-2018 GQR Research (D)
  30. https://web.archive.org/web/20171107025811/https://projectnewamerica.com/latest/new-mexico-poll-likely-democratic-primary-voters-shows-lujan-grisham-handily-beating GQR Research (D)
  31. News: Doña Ana County commissioner announces bid for lieutenant governor. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Oxford. Andrew. October 20, 2017. October 21, 2017.
  32. News: Miera and McTeigue announce runs for Lt. Gov.. Horwath. Justin. June 12, 2017. The Santa Fe New Mexican. September 1, 2017.
  33. News: Sen. Morales launches bid for lieutenant governor. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Oxford. Andrew. December 5, 2017. December 6, 2017.
  34. News: Longtime educator jumps into race for lieutenant governor. Oxford. Andrew. January 5, 2017. The Santa Fe New Mexican. September 1, 2017.
  35. Web site: Home. Javier Gonzales. en-US. 2018-02-20. https://web.archive.org/web/20180220212534/https://www.javiergonzales4nm.com/. 2018-02-20. dead.
  36. News: State Sen. Padilla will run for lieutenant governor. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Terrell. Steve. July 19, 2017. September 1, 2017.
  37. News: Padilla drops bid for lieutenant governor. Albuquerque Journal. McKay. Dan. December 4, 2017. December 6, 2017.
  38. News: State Sen. Padilla will run for lieutenant governor. Albuquerque Journal. Boyd. Dan. July 21, 2017. September 1, 2017.
  39. http://35.161.75.124/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/LPNM-Major-Party-Release-WEB-6-2-17.pdf Press release
  40. News: Oxford . Andrew . Libertarian candidate for governor fails to make ballot . Santa Fe New Mexican . June 26, 2018 . en.
  41. Web site: Three Dunns running: For New Mexico's Libertarian Party, it's a family affair. Santa Fe New Mexican. March 20, 2018. May 13, 2018. Andrew. Oxford.
  42. Web site: N.M land commissioner may run for governor as Libertarian - LAMonitor.com. lamonitor.com. 22 May 2018. 29 May 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180529225619/http://www.lamonitor.com/content/nm-land-commissioner-may-run-governor-libertarian. dead.
  43. Web site: Son: State Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn mulling run for governor, as Libertarian. 22 May 2018.
  44. Web site: Here's Why Gary Johnson Won't Be Running For Governor of New Mexico In 2018. 16 September 2017. thejacknews.com. 14 June 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180615111745/http://thejacknews.com/politics/political-highlights/why-gary-johnson-wont-run-governor-new-mexico-2018/. 15 June 2018. dead.
  45. Web site: With easy ballot access, Libertarian Party seeks N.M. candidates; Dunn eyes bid for governor . Morgan Lee - The Associated Press . 13 November 2017 . 22 May 2018.
  46. Web site: Boyd. Dan. Gary Johnson makes it official: He's running for U.S. Senate. Albuquerque Journal. August 14, 2018.
  47. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
  48. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  49. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. 17 October 2018 . en. October 17, 2018.
  50. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
  51. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
  52. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  53. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  54. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News.
  55. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
  56. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
  57. https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Tables_Midterms_05Nov2018.pdf Research Co.
  58. https://www.abqjournal.com/1241676/poll-lujan-grisham-has-sizable-lead-over-pearce.html Research & Polling, Inc.
  59. https://web.archive.org/web/20181102222941/https://www.kob.com/kobtvimages/repository/cs/files/Poll%20Results.pdf Carroll Strategies
  60. https://web.archive.org/web/20181031173151/https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-democrats-favored-pick-governorships-mi-nm-hold-us-senate-seat-nj#.W9nnGuzP3z8 Emerson College
  61. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20181028_NM.pdf GQR Research (D)
  62. https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-governement/elections/krqe-news-13-statewide-new-mexico-poll/1552195786 Pacific Market Research
  63. https://web.archive.org/web/20180928003410/https://electliberty.com/frequencies-sept-26/ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  64. https://www.abqjournal.com/1221438/journal-poll-lujan-grisham-has-solid-lead-over-pearce.html Research & Polling, Inc.
  65. https://www.scribd.com/document/387926367/Global-Strategy-Group-NM-AG-Poll-Memo Global Strategy Group (D)
  66. http://nmpoliticalreport.com/874055/lujan-grisham-internal-poll-shows-8-point-lead-over-pearce/ GQR Research (D)
  67. https://web.archive.org/web/20181107074042/https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-nm-8.19.18.pdf Emerson College
  68. https://www.scribd.com/document/376631538/Pearce-Internal-Poll-April-2018 The Tarrance Group (R)
  69. https://www.scribd.com/document/350187692/May-2017-New-Mexico-Survey/ The Tarrance Group (R)
  70. https://web.archive.org/web/20180927050326/https://electliberty.com/new-mexico-statewide-frequencies/ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  71. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c167021b-46f6-4423-a92e-cafedfdf2276 SurveyUSA
  72. http://www.carrollstrategies.net/blog/2018/6/19/new-carroll-poll Carroll Strategies
  73. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.

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