2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Country:	New Hampshire
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2016
Next Election:	2020 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2020
Election Date:	November 6, 2018
Image1:	File:GOV SUNUNU OFFICIAL PHOTO (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Chris Sununu
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	302,764
Percentage1:	52.78%
Nominee2:	Molly Kelly
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	262,359
Percentage2:	45.74%
Governor
Before Election:	Chris Sununu
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Chris Sununu
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu won re-election to a second term, defeating former state senator Molly Kelly. Sununu was the first incumbent Republican to win reelection as governor since Steve Merrill was reelected in 1994.

Primary elections were held on September 11, 2018. The gubernatorial election was coincident with races for the state legislature and the United States House of Representatives. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state won by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

Background

New Hampshire is one of only two states, along with Vermont, where governors are elected to two-year terms. Republican Chris Sununu was elected in the 2016 election.^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Chris Sununu, incumbent governor^[2]

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Molly Kelly, former state senator^[4]
• Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth and candidate for governor in 2016^[5]

Declined

• Dan Feltes, state senator^[6]
• Chris Pappas, Executive Councilor (running for NH-01)^{[7] [8]}
• Colin Van Ostern, former executive councilor and nominee for governor in 2016 (running for Secretary of State)^[9]
• Andru Volinsky, Executive Councilor^[10]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Connolly	Molly Kelly	Steve Marchand	Other	Undecided
Suffolk University^[11]	April 26–30, 2018	401	–	–	align=center	21%	19%	–	align=center	58%
TargetPoint/GQR	March 8–15, 2018	346	± 5.3%	9%	align=center	17%	11%	4%	align=center	58%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

• Aaron Day, former chair of the Free State Project^[12] and independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016^[13]
• Jilletta Jarvis, former secretary of the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire and independent candidate for governor in 2016^{[14] [15]}

Results

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[16]		October 26, 2018
The Washington Post^[17]		November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight^[18]		November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report^[19]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[20]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[21]		November 4, 2018
Daily Kos^[22]		November 5, 2018
Fox News^[23]		November 5, 2018
Politico^[24]		November 5, 2018
Governing^[25]		November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chris Sununu (R)	Molly Kelly (D)	Jilletta Jarvis (L)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire^[26]	November 1–4, 2018	630	± 3.9%	46%	46%	2%	0%	6%
Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party)^[27]	October 27–29, 2018	901	–	align=center	47%	46%	–	–	–
Emerson College^[28]	October 27–29, 2018	1,139	± 3.7%	align=center	51%	43%	1%	–	5%
University of New Hampshire^[29]	October 10–18, 2018	499	± 4.4%	align=center	50%	39%	4%	–	7%
Saint Anselm College^[30]	October 10–15, 2018	454	± 4.6%	align=center	49%	39%	1%	0%	12%
Emerson College^[31]	October 10–12, 2018	625	± 4.2%	align=center	51%	35%	1%	–	14%
American Research Group^[32]	September 21–26, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	49%	44%	–	0%	7%
University of New Hampshire^[33]	August 2–19, 2018	389	± 5.0%	align=center	48%	32%	–	5%	16%
Suffolk University^[34]	April 26–30, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	48%	27%	4%	–	21%
University of New Hampshire^[35]	April 13–22, 2018	379	± 5.0%	align=center	51%	24%	2%	4%	20%

with Steve Marchand

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chris Sununu (R)	Steve Marchand (D)	Jilletta Jarvis (L)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	August 2–19, 2018	389	± 5.0%	align=center	48%	33%	–	4%	15%
Suffolk University^[36]	April 26–30, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	49%	25%	4%	–	21%
University of New Hampshire	April 13–22, 2018	379	± 5.0%	align=center	49%	24%	2%	2%	20%
University of New Hampshire^[37]	January 28 – February 10, 2018	381	± 5.0%	align=center	42%	28%	–	–	30%

with Chris Sununu and generic Democrat

with generic Republican and Democrat
with Mark Connolly
with Sununu and Van Ostern

Results

By county

2018 Gubernatorial election results in New Hampshire (by county) ^[39]
County	Molly Kelly Democratic		Chris Sununu Republican		Other votes		Margin		Total votes
		%		%		%		%
	9,690	36.00%	16,856	62.62%	374	1.39%	7,166	26.62%	26,920
	10,432	43.46%	13,308	55.44%	265	1.10%	2,876	11.98%	24,005
	18,158	55.80%	13,875	42.64%	509	1.56%	-4,283	-13.16%	32,542
	4,988	42.96%	6,397	55.10%	225	1.94%	1,409	12.14%	11,610
	22,932	56.89%	16,734	41.52%	642	1.59%	-6,198	-15.37%	40,308
	72,033	44.34%	87,846	54.07%	2,589	1.59%	15,813	9.73%	162,468
	30,540	46.97%	33,513	51.54%	972	1.49%	2,973	4.57%	65,025
	59,269	42.29%	79,195	56.50%	1,699	1.21%	19,926	14.21%	140,163
	26,593	49.89%	25,782	48.37%	931	1.75%	-811	-1.52%	53,306
	7,724	44.76%	9,258	53.65%	273	1.58%	1,534	8.89%	17,255

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Merrimack (largest city: Concord)

By congressional district

Sununu won both congressional districts, which simultaneously elected Democrats.^[40]

District	Kelly	Sununu	Representative
		44.01%	54.64%		Chris Pappas
		47.58%	50.91%		Annie Kuster

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Jilletta Jarvis (L) for Governor
• Molly Kelly (D) for Governor
• Chris Sununu (R) for Governor

Notes and References

1. News: Ramer . Holly . November 9, 2016 . Sununu chosen as N.H. governor . Associated Press . Concord Monitor . November 9, 2016.
2. Web site: To No One's Surprise, Sununu Confirms He's Running for Re-Election. New Hampshire Public Radio. Bookman. Todd. October 4, 2017. October 5, 2017.
3. https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/scan-2018-nh-statewide-toplines-1522338776.pdf TargetPoint/GQR
4. News: NH Primary Source: Molly Kelly to announce gubernatorial decision next week. DiStaso. John. 2018-04-05. WMUR. 2018-04-06. en.
5. Web site: Marchand says he's running for governor. New Hampshire Union Leader. Dan. Tuohy. April 3, 2017. April 7, 2017. April 6, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170406174846/http://www.unionleader.com/Steve_Marchand_running_for_governor_again. dead.
6. Web site: Feltes rules out run for governor. WMUR. Sexton. Adam. March 11, 2018. March 12, 2018.
7. Web site: Pappas heads north, says it's about the ice cream. WMUR. DiStaso. John. July 20, 2017. September 27, 2017.
8. Web site: Democrat Pappas announces candidacy for 1st District US House seat. WMUR-TV. DiStaso. John. November 9, 2017. November 9, 2017.
9. Web site: Van Ostern to challenge Gardner for Secretary of State position. New Hampshire Union Leader. LANDRIGAN. KEVIN. March 13, 2018. July 22, 2018. July 23, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180723034313/http://www.unionleader.com/state-government/Van-Ostern-to-challenge-Gardner-for-Secy-of-State-position-03132018. dead.
10. Web site: Executive Councilor Volinsky won't run for governor in 2018. New Hampshire Union Leader. Solomon. David. September 27, 2017. September 27, 2017. September 27, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170927181736/http://www.unionleader.com/state-government/executive-councilor-volinsky-wont-run-for-governor-in-2018--20170927. dead.
11. http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/5_2_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
12. Web site: Free State Project Early Movers: FSP Chairman Aaron Day. February 12, 2016. September 12, 2018.
13. Web site: NH Primary Source: Libertarian Party of NH may have primary for governor. John. DiStaso. June 7, 2018. September 12, 2018.
14. Web site: Updated NH Primary Source. WMUR. John. DiStaso. April 3, 2017. April 22, 2017.
15. Web site: Libertarian Jilletta Jarvis Announces Campaign for NH Governor in 2018!. Free Keene. Ian. Freeman. March 25, 2017. April 22, 2017.
16. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
17. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
18. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018 . en. October 17, 2018.
19. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
20. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
21. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
22. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
23. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News. August 2022 .
24. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
25. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
26. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105184227/https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2018_fall_nhelec110418.pdf University of New Hampshire
27. https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-democratic-poll-claims-dead-heat-in-governors-race-as-rga-ups-its-anti-kelly-buy/24576396 Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party)
28. https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-polls-ct-me-nh-two-house-races-play-potential-gubernatorial-upset Emerson College
29. https://web.archive.org/web/20181019173514/https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2018_fall_govrace101918.pdf University of New Hampshire
30. https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/1018%20Executive%20Summary%20(002).pdf Saint Anselm College
31. https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/two-emerson-e-polls-republicans-edge-us-senate-governor-races-nevada-new-hampshire-races-come-focus Emerson College
32. http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/nhgov18/ American Research Group
33. https://web.archive.org/web/20180820211003/https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2018_summer_govapp82018.pdf University of New Hampshire
34. http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/5_2_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
35. https://web.archive.org/web/20180424160540/https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2018_spring_govapp42418.pdf University of New Hampshire
36. http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/5_2_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
37. https://web.archive.org/web/20180213160301/https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2018_winter_govapp21318.pdf University of New Hampshire
38. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Z1lbFrjnIBmYZxWLZkzo_1nVg3uTRLcerSSauihlLdM/edit Praecones Analytica
39. Web site: 2018 General Election Results .
40. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. August 11, 2020.