New Hampshire presidential primary explained

The New Hampshire presidential primary is the first in a series of nationwide party primary elections and the second party contest, the first being the Iowa caucuses, held in the United States every four years as part of the process of choosing the delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions which choose the party nominees for the presidential elections to be held in November. Although only a few delegates are chosen in the New Hampshire primary, its real importance comes from the massive media coverage it receives, along with the first caucus in Iowa.

Spurred by the events of the 1968 election, reforms that began with the 1972 election elevated the two states' importance to the overall election,[1] and began to receive as much media attention as all of the other state contests combined.[2] An upset victory by an underdog candidate, or a weak showing by a front-runner can change the course of the primaries, as happened in 1952, 1968, and 2008 for the Democrats, and in 1980 for the Republicans.

Since 1952, the primary has been a major testing ground for candidates for both the Republican and Democratic nominations. Candidates who do poorly frequently drop out, while lesser-known, underfunded candidates who excel in New Hampshire can become serious contenders, garnering large amounts of media attention and campaign funding.

The New Hampshire primary is a semi-open primary: unaffiliated voters (those registered without party affiliation) may vote in either party's primary. Voters registered with one party cannot "cross vote" to vote in another party's primary.

"First primary" status and efforts to change

New Hampshire state law provides: "The presidential primary election shall be held on the second Tuesday in March or on a date selected by the secretary of state which is 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election, whichever is earlier."[3] New Hampshire has closely guarded its "first primary in the nation" status through this provision. The state has held the first primary in each presidential campaign since 1920.[4]

The Iowa caucuses, which began in 1972 for Democrats and 1976 for Republicans, occur earlier than the New Hampshire primary.[5] [6] Iowa's contest is not considered to be "a similar election" because the caucuses do not involve actual balloting.[7]

New Hampshire's status as the first in the nation has been considered controversial by those who claim the ethnic makeup of the state is not diverse enough.[8] Efforts to alter New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary status have periodically occurred.[9] In 2007, different states attempted to leapfrog other states by scheduling earlier primaries and caucuses for the 2008 presidential race.[9] [4] Florida, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina all moved their nominating contests up.[4] New Hampshire ultimately retained its first-primary status, holding its primary on January 8, 2008, the earliest ever date.[9]

In 2023, the Democratic National Committee approved a calendar that would make New Hampshire the second Democratic primary to be held in 2024. Under the DNC calendar, the South Carolina primary would be held first on February 3, followed by both the New Hampshire primary and Nevada caucuses on February 6. New Hampshire officials of both parties have opposed the move, and vowed to go forward with a first-in-the-nation primary, even if it triggers a loss of its convention delegates as a penalty for breaching the party calendar.[10] [11] [12]

Mechanics of the primary

Voter eligibility

The New Hampshire primary is a semi-open primary:[13] [14] unaffiliated voters (those registered without party affiliation) may vote in either party's primary. Votes registered with one party cannot "cross vote" to vote in another party's primary.[15]

Candidate and party eligibility

Under state law, officially recognized parties may hold a state-sanctioned primary.[16] To receive official party status, a party's candidate must receive at least 4% of the votes cast for governor or U.S. senator in the most recent general election in New Hampshire.[16] [17] Currently, only Democrats and Republicans meet this criterion.[16]

New Hampshire has a low barrier to ballot access. Any person may run for president by (1) paying a $1,000 filing fee or collecting the signatures of 10 registered voters in each New Hampshire county and (2) completing a declaration of candidacy form that declares, under penalty of perjury, that the candidate meets the constitutional requirement for the presidency, being at least 35 years old, a natural-born citizen status, and a U.S. resident for at least 14 years. A candidates must affirm that he or she is a registered member of the party for the nomination they seek.[16]

The record number of candidates was 62, in the 1992 primary.[16] In the 2016 New Hampshire primary, 58 candidates ran.[16] Many candidates who appear on the ballot are obscure or fringe, and some are perennial candidates. Saint Anselm College runs a Lesser-Known Candidates Forum every four years.[18]

Balloting

The primary is conducted by secret ballot. Voters mark their selection on paper ballots, which are tabulated by hand and optical scan.[19]

Dixville Notch and other "midnight voting" towns

The communities of Dixville Notch, Hart's Location, and Millsfield traditionally participate in the New Hampshire midnight voting, in which they open their polling places at midnight.[20] In particular, the polling place inside the ballroom of The Balsams Grand Resort Hotel in Dixville Notch opens at midnight, usually in front of a crowd of journalists, where the village's handful of voters cast their ballots before the polls close about less than ten minutes later.[21] This has led many presidential candidates to visit the area before the New Hampshire primary in hopes of securing an early-morning boost.[22]

Significance

There is consensus among scholars and pundits that the New Hampshire primary, because of the timing and the vast media attention, can have a great impact and may even make, break or revive a candidate.[23] Controlling for other factors statistically, a win in New Hampshire increases a candidate's share of the final primary count in all states by 27 percentage points.[24]

Since 1977, New Hampshire has fought hard to keep its timing as the first primary, while Iowa has the first caucus a few days sooner. State law requires that its primary must be the first in the nation. It has been the first by tradition since 1920.[25] As a result, the state has moved its primary earlier in the year to remain the first.

The primary was held on the following dates: 1952–1968, the second Tuesday in March. 1972, the first Tuesday in March. 1976–1984, the fourth Tuesday in February. 1988–1996, the third Tuesday in February. 2000, the first Tuesday in February (February 1). 2004, the fourth Tuesday in January (January 27). The shifts have been to compete with changing primary dates in other states. The primary dates for 2008 (January 8) and 2012 (January 10) continued the trend – they were held the second Tuesday in January, in both years.

In defense of their primary, voters of New Hampshire have tended to downplay the importance of the Iowa caucus. "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents," said then-Governor John H. Sununu in 1988.[26]

Recently, media expectations for the New Hampshire primary have come to be almost as important as the results themselves. Meeting or beating expectations can provide a candidate with national attention, often leading to an infusion of donations to a campaign that has spent most of its reserves. For example, in 1992, Bill Clinton, although he did not win, did surprisingly well, with his team dubbing him the "Comeback Kid". The extra media attention helped his campaign's visibility in later primaries.[27]

The most recent presidential election winner to win the New Hampshire primary was Donald Trump in 2016. The three presidents before him (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama) finished second in the New Hampshire primary before later being elected to the presidency. The previous four presidents before that, won the New Hampshire primary.

History

New Hampshire has held a presidential primary since 1916 and started the tradition of being the first presidential primary in the United States starting in 1920.[28] Until 1948, the New Hampshire primary, like most of the small number of other primaries in the country, listed only the names of local citizens who wanted to be delegates to the state convention. In 1948, Richard F. Upton, speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives decided to make the primary "more interesting and meaningful…so there would be a greater turnout at the polls." The state legislature passed a law allowing citizens to vote directly for the presidential candidates. Any candidate could get on the ballot if he submitted fifty supporting petitions from each of the two congressional districts. Voters could choose delegates who were explicitly pledged to a particular candidate.[29]

New Hampshire did not begin to assume its current importance until 1952. In that year, Dwight D. Eisenhower demonstrated his broad voter appeal by defeating Robert A. Taft, "Mr. Republican", who had been favored for the nomination, and Estes Kefauver defeated incumbent President Harry S. Truman, leading Truman to abandon his campaign for a second term of his own. The other president to be forced out of the running for re-election by New Hampshire voters was Lyndon Johnson, who, as a write-in candidate, managed only a 49–42 percent victory over Eugene McCarthy in 1968, and won fewer delegates than McCarthy, and consequently withdrew from the race.[30]

The winner in New Hampshire has not always won their party's nomination, as demonstrated by Republicans Leonard Wood in 1920, Harold Stassen in 1948, Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. as a write-in candidate in 1964, Pat Buchanan in 1996, and John McCain in 2000, and Democrats Estes Kefauver in 1952 and 1956, Paul Tsongas in 1992, Hillary Clinton in 2008, and Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020.

From 1952 to 1988, the person elected president had always carried the primary. Bill Clinton broke the pattern in 1992, as did George W. Bush in 2000, Barack Obama in 2008, and Joe Biden in 2020. In 1992, Clinton lost to Paul Tsongas in New Hampshire. In 2000, George W. Bush lost to John McCain in New Hampshire. In 2008, Barack Obama lost to Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Joe Biden lost to Bernie Sanders.

1968

In November 1967, Eugene McCarthy declared, "there comes a time when an honorable man simply has to raise the flag" and entered the New Hampshire Democratic primary. On March 12, 1968, McCarthy, who was the only candidate on the ballot, came within 7 percentage points of defeating President Lyndon Johnson, a write-in candidate who was technically still exploring his candidacy and had not bothered to file. Just a few days later, on March 16, 1968, Robert F. Kennedy entered the race for President. Johnson subsequently withdrew from the election with this Shermanesque statement: "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."[31]

One minor candidate in the Republican primary was William W. Evans Jr., a former New Jersey State Assemblyman, who received just 151 votes statewide.[32]

The 1968 New Hampshire Democratic primary was one of the crucial events in the politics of that landmark year in United States history. Senator Eugene McCarthy began his campaign with a poem that he wrote in imitation of the poet Robert Lowell, "Are you running with me Jesus":

1980

George H. W. Bush emerged as the front-runner of the 1980 Republican presidential primary after his upset Iowa caucus victory over Ronald Reagan. Bush and Reagan became the two leading candidates in the primaries over the other four candidates. With the other candidates in single digits, the Nashua Telegraph offered to host a debate between Reagan and Bush. Worried that a newspaper-sponsored debate might violate electoral regulations, Reagan arranged to fund the event with his own campaign money, inviting the other candidates to participate at short notice.[33] [34] [35]

The Bush camp did not learn of Reagan's decision to include the other candidates until the debate was due to begin. Bush refused to participate, which led to an impasse on the stage. As Reagan attempted to explain his decision, Jon Breen, the editor of the Nashua Telegraph and debate moderator, ordered Bob Malloy, the volume operator, to mute Reagan's microphone. When Malloy refused, Breen repeated his order. A visibly angry Reagan responded, "I am paying for this microphone, Mr. , referring to the editor and debate moderator Jon Breen.[36] [34] [37]

Eventually the other candidates agreed to leave, and the debate proceeded between Reagan and Bush. Reagan's quote was often repeated as "I paid for this microphone!" and dominated news coverage of the event. Reagan sailed to an easy win in New Hampshire.[38] Reagan eventually secured the nomination, and selected Bush as his running mate. The two won the general election.

1992

Bill Clinton was able to declare himself the "Comeback Kid" after posting a surprise second-place finish behind Paul Tsongas in the Democratic primary. Clinton's support had been flagging for weeks since being hit by allegations of infidelity with actress Gennifer Flowers. On the Republican side, Pat Buchanan garnered an unexpected 37% showing behind incumbent President George H. W. Bush. Buchanan did not win a single state, but revealed some doubts about the moderate president among conservative voters.

2000

George W. Bush's campaign, which for months had dominated in polling, money and endorsements on the Republican side, suffered a blow when John McCain, who had been surging in late polls, ended up beating the governor in New Hampshire by more than 18 points. The result forecast a tough two-man race for the GOP nomination, which carried on until Super Tuesday in March. Al Gore helped himself with a narrow win in the Democratic primary, which somewhat assuaged his supporters' concerns about Bill Bradley's insurgent campaign.

2004

Senator John Kerry secured a decisive victory with 35% of the vote, 10 percentage points more than second-place finisher Howard Dean.

2008

Hillary Clinton managed an upset win over Barack Obama in New Hampshire, despite polls showing her as much as 13 points behind in the run-up to the vote.[39] The win helped Clinton get back some of the momentum she lost the week before when Obama carried the Iowa caucuses—though Obama eventually won the Democratic nomination. John McCain won the Republican primary, sparking an unexpected comeback for the senator whose long-shot campaign had been written off as a lost cause months before. He went on to win the GOP nomination.

2016

Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton by 22 percentage points. Sanders amassed 152,193 votes in total, earning him 15 delegates, while Clinton managed 95,252 votes with 9 delegates.[40] Together with Donald Trump's double-digit win in the GOP race, the primary results revealed voter frustrations with mainstream "establishment" politicians.[41]

2020

Bernie Sanders narrowly placed first in the Democratic primary once again, edging out former Mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg with 76,384 votes to 72,454. Incumbent President Donald Trump won an overwhelming victory in the Republican primary with 129,734 votes, beating former Governor of Massachusetts Bill Weld by over 75 percentage points and receiving the most votes in the New Hampshire primary for an incumbent candidate in U.S. history, breaking Bill Clinton's 1996 record of 76,797.

2024

President Joe Biden was a write-in candidate due to the Democratic primary scheduling controversy;[42] he won the Democratic race with over 64 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with about 54 percent of the vote, beating Nikki Haley's approximate 43 percent.[43]

Democratic results

Notes: An asterisk indicates a write-in candidate. Candidates in bold won the primary. Candidates in italics were incumbent presidents.

Republican results

Notes: An asterisk indicates a write-in candidate. Candidates in bold won the primary. Candidates in italics were incumbent presidents.

Libertarian results

Primary date Winner Runners-Up
February 18, 1992Former Alaska state representative Andre Marrou (100%)No other candidate received a vote[88]
February 26, 1996Investment analyst Harry Browne (35.00%)Tax protester Irwin Schiff (18.33%)

Vice-presidential results

A vice-presidential preference primary was also formerly held at the New Hampshire primary. New Hampshire State Senator Jack Barnes, who won the 2008 Republican contest, co-sponsored a bill in 2009 which would eliminate the vice-presidential preference ballot. The bill passed both houses of the state legislature and took effect in 2012.[89]

The only time a non-incumbent won the vice-presidential primary and then went on to be formally nominated by his or her party was in 2004, when Democratic U.S. Senator John Edwards won as a write-in candidate. Edwards, who was running for President at the time, did not actively solicit vice-presidential votes.

In 1968, the sitting Vice President Hubert Humphrey won the Democratic vice-presidential primary, and then later won the Presidential nomination after the sitting President Lyndon B. Johnson dropped out of the race.

The following candidates received the greatest number of votes at each election.

Year Date Republican Democratic Libertarian
1952 March 11 Styles BridgesEstes Kefauver
1956 March 13 Richard NixonAdlai Stevenson II
1960 March 8 Wesley PowellWesley Powell
1964 March 10 Richard NixonRobert F. Kennedy
1968 March 12 Austin BurtonHubert Humphrey
1972 March 7 Spiro AgnewJorge Almeyda
1976 February 24 Auburn Lee Packwood
1980 February 26 Walter Mondale
1984 February 28 George H. W. Bush
1988 February 16
1992 February 18 Herb Clark Jr.Nancy Lord
1996 February 20 Colin PowellAl GoreIrwin Schiff
2000 February 1 Wladislav D. Kubiak
2004 January 27 Dick CheneyJohn Edwards
2008 January 8 John Barnes Jr.[90] Raymond Stebbins[91]

Sources: New Hampshire Department of State, New Hampshire Political Library

See also

Early votes:

Reform plans:

Further reading

Notes and References

  1. http://conventions.cps.neu.edu/nominations-conventions/current-practices/iowa-and-new-hampshire/ "Nominations & Conventions: Current Practices: Iowa and New Hampshire"
  2. Richard M. Perloff, Political Communication: Politics, Press, and Public in America (1998) p. 294
  3. Web site: New Hampshire Revised Statutes: Section 653:9, Presidential Primary Election..
  4. Brian Early, New Hampshire sets date for presidential primary, Reuters (November 21, 2007).
  5. https://www.wbur.org/news/2023/02/06/national-democrat-party-primary-2024-new-hampshire Democrats' reshuffle makes N.H. 2nd to hold primary in 2024. But state leaders push to be 1st
  6. Thomas E. Patterson, "Voter Participation: Records Galore This Time, but What about Next Time?" Reforming the Presidential Nomination Process (eds: Melanie J. Springer & Steven S. Smith: Brookings Institution Press: 2009), p. 46.
  7. Brianne Pfannenstiel, Iowa Democrats are trying to replace the virtual caucuses. What are their options?, The Des Moines Register (September 19, 2019).
  8. Steven S. Smith, Reforming the Presidential Nomination Process (2009) p. 143
  9. Julie Bosman, New Hampshire retains first primary, New York Times (November 22, 2007).
  10. Will Weissert, Georgia and New Hampshire’s places in limbo as Democrats hammer out 2024 primary order, Associated Press (June 16, 2023).
  11. Lisa Kashinsky, Democrats buy time in fight over New Hampshire primary, Politico (June 16, 2023).
  12. Ross Barkan, The D.N.C. Has a Primary Problem, New York Times (July 5, 2023).
  13. David Weigel, New Hampshire's political geography: Where candidates are looking for voters, Washington Post (February 7, 2020).
  14. Katelyn Burns, New Hampshire primary turnout was good for Democrats — sort of, Vox (February 12, 2020).
  15. https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/state-primary-election-types State Primary Election Types
  16. Dan Tuohy, Primary School: What Do You Have to Do to Actually Run for President in N.H.?, New Hampshire Public Radio (November 14, 2019).
  17. https://law.justia.com/codes/new-hampshire/2021/title-lxiii/title-652/section-652-11/ N.H. Rev. Stat. § 652:11.
  18. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUS379001990620111220 In New Hampshire, fringe candidates get their moment
  19. Ben Popken, How New Hampshire votes: Pencils and paper, NBC News (June 4, 2020).
  20. News: Small New Hampshire town votes for Bloomberg in primary . February 11, 2020 . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20200211084951/https://apnews.com/9369eb84718260ccd834737d36267d7e . February 11, 2020.
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  23. Rebecca B. Morton, Learning by Voting: Sequential Choices in Presidential Primaries and Other Elections (2001) p. 24
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