2012 Montana gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2012 Montana gubernatorial election
Country:	Montana
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2008 Montana gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2008
Next Election:	2016 Montana gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2016
Image1:	File:Steve Bullock.jpg
Nominee1:	Steve Bullock
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate1:	John Walsh
Popular Vote1:	236,450
Percentage1:	48.90%
Nominee2:	Rick Hill
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate2:	Jon Sonju
Popular Vote2:	228,879
Percentage2:	47.34%
Map Size:	299px
Governor
Before Election:	Brian Schweitzer
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Steve Bullock
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
Turnout:	72.18%2.32^[1]

The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.

Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%.^[2] With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day.^[3] This was the last time anyone other than Greg Gianforte was the Republican nominee.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Steve Bullock, Montana Attorney General^[4]

• Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard^[5]
• Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext

• Running mate: Steve Nelsen, founder of the Montana Conservation Corps^[6]

Withdrew

• Larry Jent, state senator^[7]

Declined

• John Bohlinger, Lieutenant Governor of Montana^[8]
• Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman^[8]
• Dave Wanzenried, state senator^[9]
• Pat Williams, former U.S. representative^[10]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Steve Bullock	width=100px	Larry Jent	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[11]	November 28–30, 2011	573	± 4.1%	align=center	70%	6%	—	24%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Bob Fanning, retired businessman^[12]

• Running mate: Joel Boniek, former state representative^[13]

• Former running mate: Chuck Baldwin, pastor and Constitution Party nominee for president in 2008 (dropped out February 2012)^[14]
• Rick Hill, former U.S. representative^[15]

• Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator^[16]
• Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst^[17]

• Running mate: Ryan Zinke, state senator^[18]
• Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director^[19]

• Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and Carroll College Trustee^[20]
• Ken Miller, former state senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party^[21]

• Running mate: Bill Gallagher, Public Service Commissioner^[22]
• Jim O'Hara, Chouteau County Commissioner^[23]

• Running mate: Scott Swingley, private investigator and former trooper in the Montana Highway Patrol^[24]
• Corey Stapleton, former state senator^[25]

• Running mate: Bob Keenan, former president of the Montana Senate^[26]

Withdrew

• Jeff Essmann, Majority Leader of the Montana Senate^[27]
• Drew Turiano, real estate investor^{[28] [29]}

Declined

• Denny Rehberg, U.S. representative (ran for the U.S. Senate)^[30]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Essmann	Bob Fanning	Rick Hill	Neil Livingstone	Jim Lynch	Ken Miller	Jim O'Hara	Corey Stapleton	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[31]	April 26–29, 2012	403	± 4.88%	—	1%	align=center	33%	5%	4%	12%	4%	7%	align=center	35%
Public Policy Polling^[32]	November 28–30, 2011	700	± 3.7%	5%	1%	align=center	37%	3%	4%	10%	3%	2%	35%

Results

General election

Candidates

• Steve Bullock (D), Montana attorney general

• Running mate: John Walsh, brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
• Rick Hill (R), former U.S. representative

• Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator
• Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman^[33]

• Running mate: Marc Mulcahy^[13]

Debate

• Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 10, 2012

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[34]		November 1, 2012
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[35]		November 5, 2012
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[36]		November 2, 2012
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[37]		November 5, 2012

Polling

Aggregate polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Steve Bullock (D)	width=100px	Rick Hill (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[39]	November 2–3, 2012	836	± 3.4%	48%	48%	2%	2%
Mason-Dixon^[40]	October 29–31, 2012	625	± 4.0%	46%	align=center	49%	2%	3%
Public Policy Polling^[41]	October 8–10, 2012	737	± 3.6%	42%	align=center	43%	8%	7%
Montana State University^[42]	September 27–30, 2012	477	± 4.6%	38%	align=center	40%	2%	20%
Mason-Dixon^[43]	September 17–19, 2012	625	± 4.0%	align=center	44%	43%	2%	11%
Public Policy Polling^[44]	September 10–11, 2012	656	± 3.2%	align=center	44%	39%	8%	9%
Public Policy Polling	April 26–29, 2012	934	± 3.2%	39%	39%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	38%	align=center	39%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling^[45]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	37%	align=center	39%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling^[46]	November 10–13, 2010	1,176	± 2.9%	31%	align=center	41%	—	28%

With Bohlinger

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	John Bohlinger (D)	width=100px	Jeff Essmann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	align=center	40%	33%	—	28%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	John Bohlinger (D)	width=100px	Rick Hill (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	39%	align=center	40%	—	21%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	John Bohlinger (D)	width=100px	Ken Miller (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	align=center	39%	33%	—	28%

With Bullock

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Steve Bullock (D)	width=100px	Jeff Essmann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	align=center	42%	30%	—	28%
Public Policy Polling	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	align=center	38%	33%	—	28%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Steve Bullock (D)	width=100px	Neil Livingstone (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	align=center	41%	29%	—	30%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Steve Bullock (D)	width=100px	Ken Miller (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 26–29, 2012	934	± 3.2%	align=center	41%	35%	—	24%
Public Policy Polling	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	align=center	40%	31%	—	29%
Public Policy Polling	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	align=center	38%	34%	—	28%

With Jent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Larry Jent (D)	width=100px	Rick Hill (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	26%	align=center	39%	—	35%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Larry Jent (D)	width=100px	Neil Livingstone (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	26%	align=center	30%	—	align=center	44%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Larry Jent (D)	width=100px	Ken Miller (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	25%	align=center	33%	—	align=center	42%

With Wanzenried

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Dave Wanzenried (D)	width=100px	Jeff Essmann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	31%	align=center	33%	—	align=center	36%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Dave Wanzenried (D)	width=100px	Rick Hill (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	30%	align=center	40%	—	30%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Dave Wanzenried (D)	width=100px	Ken Miller (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	30%	align=center	35%	—	align=center	35%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

External links

• Elections and Government – Montana Secretary of State

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Steve Bullock for Governor
• Rick Hill for Governor
• Ron Vandevender for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: Montana Voter Turnout. Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. 22 February 2018 . 2022-05-26.
2. Michael Barone, et al. The Almanac of American Politics 2014 (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245).
3. Web site: Networks declare Bullock winner in tight race for governor. Charles S. Johnson . Montana Standard. 6 November 2012 .
4. Web site: Bullock joins Montana governor's race. September 7, 2011. September 7, 2011. Politico. David. Catanese.
5. Web site: Bullock makes pick of Walsh as running mate official. March 9, 2012. March 11, 2012. Independent Record. Charles S.. Johnson.
6. Web site: Democrats Margolis & Nelsen enter race for MT Governor. https://archive.today/20130127152509/http://www.kxlf.com/news/democrats-margolis-and-nelsen-enter-race-for-mt-governor/. dead. January 27, 2013. March 12, 2012. March 14, 2012. KXLF-TV. Marnee. Banks.
7. Web site: Jent drops out of governor's race, leaving Bullock as lone Democrat. March 8, 2012. March 9, 2012. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
8. Web site: Bohlinger, Essmann eye governor's race. June 12, 2011. June 15, 2011. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
9. News: Wanzenried ends run for governor. Charles S. Johnson . Billings Gazette. 7 July 2011 .
10. Web site: Pat Williams not running for governor. September 13, 2010. January 17, 2011. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
11. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1205925.pdf Public Policy Polling
12. Web site: 3 more GOP candidates running for governor. October 4, 2011. October 5, 2011. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
13. Web site: Long list of candidates running for U.S. House & MT Governor. https://archive.today/20130127101528/http://www.krtv.com/news/long-list-of-candidates-running-for-u-s-house-and-mt-governor/. dead. January 27, 2013. March 12, 2012. March 14, 2012. KRTV. Marnee. Banks.
14. Web site: MT gubernatorial candidate Fanning loses running mate. February 13, 2012. March 11, 2012. KTVQ. Marnee. Banks. https://web.archive.org/web/20150119003517/http://www.ktvq.com/news/mt-gubernatorial-candidate-fanning-loses-running-mate/. January 19, 2015. dead. mdy-all.
15. Web site: Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor. November 6, 2010. January 17, 2011. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
16. Web site: Rick Hill Announces Jon Sonju as Gubernatorial Running Mate. January 18, 2012. March 11, 2012. Flathead Beacon. Myers. Reece.
17. Web site: Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race. February 12, 2011. February 12, 2011. Associated Press.
18. Web site: Livingstone taps Zinke as running mate. July 10, 2011. March 11, 2012. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
19. Web site: Jim Lynch announces candidacy for Governor. October 13, 2011. October 14, 2011. KTVQ. https://web.archive.org/web/20111023163337/http://www.ktvq.com/news/jim-lynch-announces-candidacy-for-governor/. October 23, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
20. Web site: Lynch names Olszewski as running mate in MT governor race. https://archive.today/20130127105141/http://www.krtv.com/news/lynch-names-olszewski-as-running-mate-in-mt-governor-race/. dead. January 27, 2013. March 12, 2012. March 14, 2012. KRTV. David. Sherman.
21. Web site: Republican former state senator from Laurel formally enters 2012 governor's race. August 9, 2010. January 17, 2011. Billings Gazette. Mike. Dennison.
22. Web site: Ken Miller Announces Bill Gallagher as Gubernatorial Running Mate. February 6, 2012. March 11, 2012. Flathead Beacon. Myers. Reece.
23. Web site: Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor. January 14, 2011. January 17, 2011. KFBB-TV. Charlie. Keegan. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20110713145346/http://www.kfbb.com/news/local/Jim-OHara-Announces-Candidacy-for-Governor-113650059.html. July 13, 2011.
24. Web site: O'Hara picks retired MHP officer as running mate. February 7, 2012. March 11, 2012. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
25. Web site: Stapleton bidding for governor. July 19, 2010. January 17, 2011. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
26. Web site: Stapleton picks Keenan for running mate. February 7, 2012. March 11, 2012. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
27. Web site: Essmann drops out of GOP race for governor. Billingsgazette.com. 27 January 2012 . 5 January 2018.
28. http://www.greatfallstribune.com/article/20120117/NEWS01/120117001/Turiano-drops-gubernatorial-bid
29. News: Turiano Drops Gubernatorial Bid . 11 March 2021 . Flathead Beacon . 17 January 2012 . en.
30. Web site: Rehberg focusing on current job. November 11, 2010. January 17, 2011. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
31. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050312.pdf Public Policy Polling
32. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FLMT_1130925.pdf Public Policy Polling
33. Web site: Governor candidates talk about state economy. March 1, 2012. March 14, 2012. Independent Record. Charles S.. Johnson.
34. Web site: 2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . November 30, 2018.
35. Web site: PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM . Sabato's Crystal Ball . November 30, 2018 . December 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181201094552/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/ . dead .
36. Web site: 2012 Gubernatorial Ratings . Gubernatorial Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 30, 2018.
37. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races . Real Clear Politics . November 30, 2018.
38. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/governor/mt/montana_governor_hill_vs_bullock-1839.html Real Clear Politics
39. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZMT_1104.pdf Public Policy Polling
40. http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/poll-shows-hill-edging-bullock-in-tight-race/article_fc15146b-d133-5b0e-b51b-e16435d9fd02.html Mason-Dixon
41. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1010121.pdf Public Policy Polling
42. http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2012/MSUB_poll_Day%201_%2010-10-12.pdf Montana State University
43. http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/poll-governor-s-race-about-even-bullock-hill/article_062cf741-101c-52b4-968c-36b9d89e17e7.html Mason-Dixon
44. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_091312.pdf Public Policy Polling
45. https://web.archive.org/web/20110706113425/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_623.pdf Public Policy Polling
46. https://web.archive.org/web/20110504105047/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_1119.pdf Public Policy Polling