2006 United States Senate election in Montana explained

Election Name:2006 United States Senate election in Montana
Country:Montana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2000 United States Senate election in Montana
Previous Year:2000
Next Election:2012 United States Senate election in Montana
Next Year:2012
Election Date:November 7, 2006
Image1:File:Jon Tester, official 110th Congress photo.jpg
Nominee1:Jon Tester
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:199,845
Percentage1:49.16%
Nominee2:Conrad Burns
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:196,283
Percentage2:48.29%
Map Size:302px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Conrad Burns
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Jon Tester
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2006 United States Senate election in Montana was held November 7, 2006. The filing deadline was March 23; the primary was held June 6. Incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns ran for re-election to a fourth term, but lost to Democrat Jon Tester by a margin of 0.87%, or 3,562 votes out of 406,505 cast. This made the election the second-closest race of the 2006 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Virginia.

Background

Burns was first elected as a United States Senator from Montana in 1988, when he defeated Democratic incumbent John Melcher in a close race, 52% to 48%. Burns was re-elected 62.4% to 37.6%, over Jack Mudd in the Republican Revolution year of 1994. In 2000, Burns faced the well-financed Brian Schweitzer whom he beat 50.6% to 47.2%.

In 2000, George W. Bush carried Montana 58% to 33% in the race for president, but Burns won by 3.4%. Since the direct election of Senators began in 1913, Burns is only the second Republican Montana has elected to the U.S. Senate. Also, for thirty-two straight years, 1952 to 1984, Montana elected only Democratic Senators.

Burns' involvement in the Jack Abramoff scandal made him vulnerable.[1] A SurveyUSA poll released in March 2006 found that 38% of Montanans approved of him, while 52% disapproved of him.[2] Polls against leading Democratic candidates had him below his challengers.[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

On May 31, 2006, Richards, citing the closeness of the race, and his own position (third) in the polls, withdrew from the race, and threw his support to Tester.[4] Morrison started off strong in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator, collecting $1.05 million as of the start of 2006, including $409,241 in the last three months of 2005.[5] but Morrison's advantages in fundraising and name identification did not translate into a lead in the polls.[6] Later, the race was called a "deadlock,"[7] but Tester continued to gather momentum.

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

General election

Candidates

Campaign

The race was expected to be close, due to Burns' narrow margin of victory in 2000, when he significantly underperformed Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush, and political scandal that he had been involved in. Republican incumbents everywhere were facing more challenging races in 2006 due to the waning popularity of the Republican-controlled Congress and the administration of President George W. Bush. In July 2006, the Rasmussen report viewed Burns as the "second most vulnerable Senator seeking re-election this year", after Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum.[8]

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by 3.4% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%.[9] [10] This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party[11] and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal,[12] made this a highly competitive race.

On July 27, Burns was forced to apologize after he confronted out of state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill, remarks for which he was strongly criticized.[13]

On August 31, in a letter faxed to the office of Montana governor Brian Schweitzer, Burns urged the governor, a Democrat, to declare a fire state of emergency and activate the Montana Army National Guard for firefighting. Schweitzer had already declared such a state of emergency on July 11 — thus, activating the Montana Army National Guard. He issued a second declaration on August 11. A Burns spokesman said the senator was "pretty sure" Schweitzer had already issued such a disaster declaration, but just wanted to make sure. "The genesis of the letter was just to make sure that all the bases were covered," Pendleton said. "This is not a political football. It’s just a cover-the-bases letter and certainly casts no aspersions on the governor."[14]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[15] November 6, 2006
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] November 6, 2006
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[17] November 6, 2006
align=left Real Clear Politics[18] November 6, 2006

Polling

SourceDateJon
Tester (D)		Conrad
Burns (R)		Stan
Jones (L)
align=left Mason Dixon[19] May 200526%50%
align=left Rasmussen[20] September 8, 200538%51%
align=left Mason DixonDecember 24, 200535%49%
align=left Rasmussen[21] January 11, 200645%45%
align=left Rasmussen[22] February 13, 200646%46%
align=left Rasmussen[23] March 20, 200646%43%
align=left Rasmussen[24] April 15, 200644%47%
align=left Ayres McHenry & Associates (R)[25] May 2, 200648%42%
align=left Rasmussen[26] May 16, 200648%44%
align=left Mason Dixon[27] May 28, 200645%42%
align=left Lake Research (D)[28] June 20–26, 200643%42%
align=left Rasmussen[29] July 11, 200650%43%
align=left Rasmussen[30] August 10, 200647%47%
align=left Lake Research (D)[31] August 10, 200644%37%
align=left Gallup[32] September 5, 200648%45%
align=left Rasmussen[33] September 13, 200652%43%
align=left Rasmussen[34] September 20, 200650%43%
align=left Mason-Dixon[35] October 1, 200647%40%3%
align=left Reuters/Zogby[36] October 5, 200646%42%
align=left Rasmussen[37] October 11, 200649%42%
align=left Rasmussen[38] October 18, 200648%46%
align=left Montana State University-Billings[39] October 19, 200646%35%
align=left Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC[40] October 24, 200646%43%
align=left Harstad Strategic (D)[41] October 25, 200648%42%
align=left Rasmussen[42] October 29, 200651%47%
align=left Reuters/Zogby[43] October 31, 200647%46%2%
align=left Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy[44] November 3, 200647%47%1%
align=left Rasmussen[45] November 3, 200650%46%
align=left USA Today/Gallup[46] November 4, 200650%41%
align=left Rasmussen[47] November 4, 200650%48%
align=left OnPoint Polling and Research[48] November 6, 200649%44%

Results

Tester narrowly defeated Burns on election day by just over 3,000 votes. Libertarian candidate Jones received over 10,000 votes, greater than Tester's margin of victory. Due to errors with polling machines, the Montana count was delayed well into Wednesday, November 8. The race was too close to call throughout the night and many pundits predicted the need for a recount. After a very close election, on November 9, incumbent Conrad Burns conceded defeat.[49]

Just before 11:00 AM (MST) on November 8, Jon Tester was declared Senator-elect for Montana in USA Today.[50] At 2:27 PM EST on November 8, CNN projected that Jon Tester would win the race.[51]

Under Montana law, if the margin of defeat is more than 0.25% but less than 0.5%, the losing candidate can request a recount if they pay for it themselves.[52] However, this election did not qualify for a recount because the margin was larger than 0.5%. Burns conceded the race on November 9 and congratulated Tester on his victory.[53]

County results

Source[54]

Jon Tester
Democratic		Conrad Burns
Republican		Stan Jones
Libertarian		MarginTotal
align=center CountyVotes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes
Beaverhead1,37634.14%2,55263.31%1032.56%1,17629.17%4,031
Big Horn2,99964.72%1,55133.47%841.81%1,44831.25%4,634
Blaine1,39051.90%1,22645.78%622.32%1646.12%2,678
Broadwater82534.93%1,45161.43%863.64%62626.50%2,362
Carbon2,24745.92%2,51051.30%1362.78%2635.38%4,893
Carter9814.71%55483.18%142.10%45668.47%666
Cascade14,94749.37%14,78948.85%5401.78%1580.52%30,276
Chouteau1,49151.86%1,34546.78%391.36%1465.08%2,875
Custer1,99142.36%2,58154.91%1282.72%59012.55%4,700
Daniels42440.77%59457.12%222.12%17016.35%1,040
Dawson1,59540.31%2,24756.79%1152.91%65216.48%3,957
Deer Lodge3,21172.63%1,09624.79%1142.58%2,11547.84%4,421
Fallon34726.31%95172.10%211.59%60445.79%1,319
Fergus1,98535.25%3,47461.68%1733.07%1,48926.44%5,632
Flathead13,27640.24%18,51156.10%1,2093.66%5,23515.87%32,996
Gallatin16,51148.67%16,69349.21%7202.12%1820.54%33,924
Garfield9816.58%48381.73%101.69%38565.14%591
Glacier2,74862.37%1,56435.50%942.13%1,18426.87%4,406
Golden Valley18137.24%29861.32%71.44%11724.07%486
Granite59439.13%86256.79%624.08%26817.65%1,518
Hill3,41158.33%2,32039.67%1172.00%1,09118.66%5,848
Jefferson2,41545.76%2,71551.44%1482.80%3005.68%5,278
Judith Basin37731.63%78565.86%302.52%40834.23%1,192
Lake5,61848.81%5,48047.61%4133.59%1381.20%11,511
Lewis and Clark14,92154.74%11,73443.05%6042.22%3,18711.69%27,259
Liberty40139.66%59658.95%141.38%19519.29%1,011
Lincoln2,86039.17%4,10556.23%3364.60%1,24517.05%7,301
Madison1,22433.68%2,31163.59%992.72%1,08729.91%3,634
McCone39437.88%62460.00%222.12%23022.12%1,040
Meagher27232.19%55265.33%212.49%28033.14%845
Mineral79648.98%77947.94%503.08%171.05%1,625
Missoula29,32763.92%15,61034.02%9422.05%13,71729.90%45,879
Musselshell67031.16%1,38264.28%984.56%71233.12%2,150
Park3,73150.60%3,44146.67%2012.73%2903.93%7,373
Petroleum7429.43%18067.92%114.15%10640.00%265
Phillips55928.18%1,36668.85%592.97%80740.68%1,984
Pondera1,08041.08%1,49456.83%552.09%41415.75%2,629
Powder River24824.55%73472.67%282.77%48648.12%1,010
Powell1,05240.48%1,45455.94%933.58%40215.47%2,599
Prairie21331.09%45566.42%172.48%24235.33%685
Ravalli7,90642.41%10,27355.11%4622.48%2,36712.70%18,641
Richland1,35435.22%2,38161.94%1092.84%1,02726.72%3,844
Roosevelt2,20357.47%1,57341.04%571.49%63016.44%3,833
Rosebud1,89555.31%1,42532.15%1063.09%47013.72%3,426
Sanders2,16543.53%2,57551.77%2344.70%4108.24%4,974
Sheridan98851.43%88746.17%462.39%1015.26%1,921
Silver Bow9,50066.69%4,39430.85%3512.46%5,10635.84%14,245
Stillwater1,55639.28%2,26257.11%1433.61%70617.82%3,961
Sweet Grass56332.39%1,11564.15%603.45%55231.76%1,738
Teton1,25240.80%1,75557.18%622.02%50316.39%3,069
Toole75937.52%1,19559.07%693.41%43621.55%2,023
Treasure16136.93%26059.63%153.44%9922.71%436
Valley1,55043.90%1,89353.61%882.49%3439,71%3,531
Wheatland32738.47%49858.59%252.94%17120.12%850
Wibaux16533.81%31764.96%61.23%15231.15%488
Yellowstone27,98147.77%29,20349.85%1,3942.38%1,2222.09%58,578

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Welna . David . 5 June 2006 . Montana's Sen. Burns Faces Tough Test This Fall . 1 June 2024 . NPR.
  2. Web site: SurveyUSA News Poll #8541. www.surveyusa.com. 8 April 2023.
  3. Web site: 2006 Senate RealClearPolitics Poll Averages RealClearPolitics . 2024-06-01 . www.realclearpolitics.com . en-us.
  4. Web site: BillingsGazette.com :: Richards: Tester is best choice . June 1, 2006 . https://web.archive.org/web/20060602004409/http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2006/05/31/news/state/25-richards-tester.txt . June 2, 2006 . dead . mdy-all .
  5. Web site: BillingsGazette.com :: Burns' fundraising nears $5 million; Morrison's hits $1 million. 8 April 2023.
  6. Web site: Politics Home Page : Roll Call . June 7, 2006 . https://web.archive.org/web/20060827025641/http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/05/mt_senate_race_to_take_on_emba.html . August 27, 2006 . dead . mdy-all .
  7. Web site: Tester, Morrison deadlocked. Charles S. . Johnson . May 28, 2006. Helena Independent Record. 8 April 2023.
  8. Web site: Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election . July 11, 2006 . https://web.archive.org/web/20060713152910/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/montanaSenate.htm . July 13, 2006 . dead . mdy-all .
  9. Web site: 2000 Election Statistics . 2024-06-01 . clerk.house.gov.
  10. Web site: 1 June 2024 . 2000 Presidential General Election Results - Montana . 1 June 2024 . U.S. Election Atlas.
  11. Web site: Saad . Lydia . 28 June 2006 . Voters Seem Ready for a Change of Scenery in Congress . 1 June 2024 . astrid-online.it.
  12. Web site: Ydstie . John . 27 March 2006 . Sen. Burns Scrutinized for Earmark Tied to Abramoff . 1 June 2024 . NPR.
  13. Web site: Conrad Burns Issues Apology for Altercation with Firefighters . Missoula . New West Network . August 3, 2006 . https://web.archive.org/web/20061226085513/http://www.newwest.net/index.php/city/article/10273/C8/L8 . December 26, 2006 . dead . mdy-all .
  14. Web site: Burns urges Schweitzer to take steps already taken. Jennifer . McKee . September 1, 2006. Helena Independent Record. 8 April 2023.
  15. Web site: 2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006 . The Cook Political Report . https://web.archive.org/web/20080605093937/https://cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_sen_ratings_nov6.pdf . September 30, 2021. June 5, 2008 .
  16. Web site: Election Eve 2006: The Final Predictions . Sabato's Crystal Ball . June 25, 2021.
  17. Web site: 2006 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . June 25, 2021.
  18. Web site: Election 2006 . Real Clear Politics . June 25, 2021.
  19. http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2005/12/25/build/state/25-burns-poll.inc Mason Dixon
  20. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Montana%20Senate.htm Rasmussen
  21. https://web.archive.org/web/20060113024023/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Montana%20Senator%20January%209.htm Rasmussen
  22. https://web.archive.org/web/20060308082646/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Montana%20Senate%20February.htm Rasmussen
  23. https://web.archive.org/web/20071006200622/http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/03/20/in_montana_burns_struggling_in_reelection_bid.html Rasmussen
  24. https://web.archive.org/web/20060518052350/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Montana%20Senate%20April.htm Rasmussen
  25. https://web.archive.org/web/20060503191753/http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2006/05/02/news/state/25-keenan-survey.txt Ayres McHenry & Associates (R)
  26. https://web.archive.org/web/20060602154244/http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/Montana%20Senate%20May.htm Rasmussen
  27. http://www.helenair.com/articles/2006/05/28/montana_top/a01052806_01.txt Mason Dixon
  28. https://web.archive.org/web/20060716165151/http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/07/big_sky_tie.html Lake Research (D)
  29. https://web.archive.org/web/20060713152910/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/montanaSenate.htm Rasmussen
  30. https://web.archive.org/web/20060815133340/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/MontanaSenate.htm Rasmussen
  31. http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=30200608101 Lake Research (D)
  32. https://web.archive.org/web/20061005190751/http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=24358 Gallup
  33. https://web.archive.org/web/20061021124551/http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/September%202006/montanaSenate.htm Rasmussen
  34. https://web.archive.org/web/20061021124555/http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/September%202006/MontanaSenateSep20.htm Rasmussen
  35. http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2006/10/01/news/state/30-tester.txt Mason-Dixon
  36. http://elections.us.reuters.com/ Reuters/Zogby
  37. https://web.archive.org/web/20061016111714/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/October%202006/MontanaSenate.htm Rasmussen
  38. https://web.archive.org/web/20061021125418/http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/October%202006/MontanaSenate1018.htm Rasmussen
  39. http://www.greatfallstribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061018/NEWS03/61018005 Montana State University-Billings
  40. http://www.realcities.com/multimedia/nationalchannel/news/KRT_Packages/archive/krwashington/POLL-Tues-MT.pdf Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC
  41. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/mt/montana_senate_race-11.html Harstad Strategic (D)
  42. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/October%202006/montanaSenate1026.htm Rasmussen
  43. https://web.archive.org/web/20070927021227/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1192 Reuters/Zogby
  44. http://www.realcities.com/multimedia/nationalchannel/archive/mcw/pdf/110506_montana_poll.pdf Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy
  45. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/November%202006/MontanaSenate.htm Rasmussen
  46. https://www.usatoday.com//news/polls/tables/live/2006-11-05-state-polls.htm USA Today/Gallup
  47. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2006/senate_races/montana_senate_burns_r_trailing_tester_d_by_two Rasmussen
  48. https://web.archive.org/web/20070928181421/http://www.onpointpolling.com/pdf/MT_Survey_110606.pdf OnPoint Polling and Research
  49. Web site: Sen. Burns Concedes Montana Race . November 9, 2006 . . April 1, 2018 . mdy-all .
  50. News: Democrat challenger takes Montana . USA Today . November 8, 2006 . May 27, 2010.
  51. News: Democrat wins Montana Senate seat, CNN projects . CNN. dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20061108230743/http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/08/election.senate/index.html . November 8, 2006.
  52. Web site: 13-16-211. Recounts are allowed if bond is posted to cover all costs . November 9, 2006 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071110015451/http://data.opi.state.mt.us/bills/mca/13/16/13-16-211.htm . November 10, 2007 . dead . mdy-all .
  53. News: Montana's Burns concedes Senate race . USA Today . November 9, 2006 . May 27, 2010.
  54. Web site: U.S. Senate / Montana / County Results. CNN. 8 November 2022.

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