2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election
Country:	Mississippi
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2011 Mississippi gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2011
Next Election:	2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2019
Election Date:	November 3, 2015
Image1:	File:Secretary Perry with Govt Phil Bryant KSS2455 (32743097363) (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee1:	Phil Bryant
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	480,399
Percentage1:	66.24%
Electoral Vote1:	85
Nominee2:	Robert Gray
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	234,858
Percentage2:	32.38%
Electoral Vote2:	37
Governor
Before Election:	Phil Bryant
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Phil Bryant
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)
Map Size:	250px
Flag Year:	2001

The 2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015, to elect the Governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Bryant ran for re-election to a second and final term in office. This is the highest percentage that a Republican has ever won in a gubernatorial election in Mississippi.

The election gained national news coverage and attention due to the unexpected Democratic nominee selection of truck driver and former firefighter, Robert Gray, who had not had any political experience prior to his candidacy.^[1]

As of 2023, this is by far the best performance by a Republican in a gubernatorial election in Mississippi. This is also the only time that the following counties have voted Republican for governor: Clay, Marshall, Quitman, Sharkey, and Tallahatchie.

Background

Mississippi is one of nine states and territories that has lifetime limits of two terms for its governor. In 2011, with incumbent Republican Governor Haley Barbour term-limited, Republican Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant was elected to succeed him. Bryant won the Republican primary with 59% of the vote and then defeated the Democratic nominee, Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, with 61% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Phil Bryant, incumbent Governor^[2]
• Mitch Young^[3]

Declined

• Chris McDaniel, state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^{[4] [5]}
• Michael Watson, state senator^{[6] [7]}

Result

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Robert Gray, truck driver and retired firefighter^{[3] [8]}
• Valerie Short, physician^[9]
• Vicki Slater, attorney^{[10] [11]}

Declined

• Travis Childers, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[12]
• Jim Hood, Attorney General of Mississippi (running for re-election)^{[13] [14]}
• Bill Luckett, Mayor of Clarksdale and candidate for governor in 2011^{[10] [15]}
• Dick Molpus, former Secretary of State of Mississippi and nominee for governor in 1995^[10]
• Brandon Presley, Commissioner for the Northern District of the Mississippi Public Service Commission and former Mayor of Nettleton (running for re-election)^[16]

Result

Reform Party nomination

Candidate

• Shawn O'Hara, perennial candidate^[17]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[18]		October 26, 2015
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[19]		October 27, 2015
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[20]		October 29, 2015
align=left	DKE^[21]		October 29, 2015

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Bryant (R)	Robert Gray (D)	Shawn O'Hara (Ref)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	October 21–25, 2015	625	± 4%	align=center	66%	28%	1%	5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Bryant (R)	Jim Hood (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 10–13, 2014	691	± 3.7%	align=center	44%	33%	—	22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Bryant (R)	Brandon Presley (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 10–13, 2014	691	± 3.7%	align=center	49%	26%	—	25%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Bryant (R)	Valerie Short (D)	Other	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	April 21–23, 2015	625	± 4%	align=center	63%	28%	3%^[22]	6%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Bryant (R)	Vicki Slater (D)	Other	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	April 21–23, 2015	625	± 4%	align=center	61%	30%	2%	7%

Result

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Adams (Largest city: Natchez)
• Clay (Largest city: West Point)
• Kemper (Largest city: De Kalb)
• Marshall (Largest city: Holly Springs)
• Quitman (Largest city: Lambert)
• Sharkey (Largest city: Rolling Fork)
• Tallahatchie (Largest city: Charleston)

See also

• 2015 Mississippi elections

External links

Campaign websites (archived)

• Phil Bryant (R)
• Robert Gray (D)
• Valerie Short (D)
• Vicki Slater (D)

Notes and References

1. News: Chosen by Mississippi Democrats, Shy Trucker is at a Crossroad. The New York Times. 7 September 2015. Robertson. Campbell.
2. Web site: Power Rankings: Top Session Issues. January 18, 2015. January 28, 2015. The Clarion-Ledger. Geoff Pender.
3. Web site: Bryant to face primary challenge from Mitch Young. February 26, 2015. February 27, 2015. The Clarion-Ledger. Wagster Pettus. Emily.
4. Web site: Pender: Who's running for what in '15. July 19, 2014. September 7, 2014. The Clarion-Ledger. Geoff Pender.
5. Web site: McDaniel running for re-election to state Senate. February 26, 2015. February 27, 2015. The Clarion-Ledger. Pender. Geoff.
6. Web site: Mississippi's revolution may be just starting. June 24, 2014. June 24, 2014. Politico. Alexander Burns.
7. Web site: Watson running for re-election, not higher office. February 26, 2015. February 27, 2015. The Clarion-Ledger. Pender. Geoff.
8. Web site: Robert Gray in (Truck) Driver's Seat to Challenge Gov. Phil Bryant . . Nave, R.L. . August 5, 2015 . August 5, 2015.
9. Web site: All 8 statewide Mississippi officials challenged in election. The Sun Herald. February 27, 2015. March 1, 2015. Emily. Wagster Pettus. dead. https://archive.today/20150301122414/http://www.sunherald.com/2015/02/27/6094104_mississippi-candidates-face-friday.html?rh=1. March 1, 2015.
10. News: Candidates playing chicken with deadline. The Clarion-Ledger. Pender. Geoff. February 14, 2015. February 15, 2015.
11. News: Democratic Party announcing Slater for governor. The Clarion-Ledger. Pender. Geoff. February 19, 2015. February 19, 2015.
12. News: Mississippi Republicans Wait for Cochran's Decision . Roll Call. September 25, 2013 . September 26, 2013 . Abby Livingston.
13. News: Jim Hood to open state office in Houston . Chickasaw Journal . July 31, 2013 . July 23, 2014 . Floyd Ingram.
14. News: AP analysis: Mississippi party leaders preparing strategy for 2015 . Gulf Live . August 25, 2013 . July 23, 2014.
15. Web site: 'Draft Bill' movement not gaining traction with Luckett. https://archive.today/20150118053613/http://www.pressregister.com/news/article_dd2b7bee-9b6f-11e4-ba46-7b50800b0870.html. dead. January 18, 2015. January 13, 2015. January 14, 2015. Jesse. Wright. Clarksdale Press Register.
16. Web site: Brandon Presley says he isn't running for governor. December 30, 2014. January 1, 2015. Jimmie E.. Gates. The Clarion-Ledger.
17. Web site: 2015 Candidate Qualifying List. 28 July 2015. Mississippi Secretary of State.
18. Web site: 2015-16 Governor Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en.
19. Web site: Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections . www.insideelections.com.
20. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 Governor. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.
21. Web site: Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings . October 21, 2015 . Daily Kos.
22. Shawn O'Hara (Reform)