2016 Minnesota Republican presidential caucuses explained

Election Name:2016 Minnesota Republican presidential caucuses
Country:Minnesota
Flag Year:1983
Flag Image:File:Flag of Minnesota (1983-2024).svg
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States presidential election in Minnesota#Republican caucuses
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2020 Minnesota Republican presidential primary
Next Year:2020
Outgoing Members:MA
Elected Members:OK
Image1:Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg
Candidate1:Marco Rubio
Image1 Size:120x120px
Color1:c60e3b
Home State1:Florida
Delegate Count1:17
Popular Vote1:41,126
Percentage1:36.5%
Candidate2:Ted Cruz
Color2:d4aa00
Image2 Size:120x120px
Home State2:Texas
Delegate Count2:13
Popular Vote2:32,684
Percentage2:29.0%
Image3:Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg
Candidate3:Donald Trump
Color3:283681
Image3 Size:120x120px
Home State3:New York
Delegate Count3:8
Popular Vote3:24,018
Percentage3:21.3%
Image4:Ben Carson by Skidmore with lighting correction (cropped).jpg
Candidate4:Ben Carson
Color4:99ccff
Image4 Size:120x120px
Home State4:Virginia
Delegate Count4:0
Popular Vote4:8,233
Percentage4:7.3%
Image5:John Kasich (24618295175) (cropped).jpg
Candidate5:John Kasich
Image5 Size:120x120px
Color5:00b487
Home State5:Ohio
Delegate Count5:0
Popular Vote5:6,488
Percentage5:5.8%
Map Size:250px

The 2016 Minnesota Republican presidential caucuses were held on March 1, 2016, as part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries. This event was part of the Super Tuesday elections, the day on which the greatest number of states hold primaries and caucuses. The Democratic Party held its Minnesota caucuses on the same day.

The results were notable because it was the only state that was won by Florida senator Marco Rubio. He won 36.5% of the popular vote and received 17 national delegates. He had a particularly strong showing in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th congressional districts.[1] Rubio's success in Minnesota followed a substantial campaigning effort in the state, including a rally in Anoka County on the day of the caucus.

Minnesota was also one of the rare states where then-candidate Donald Trump finished in third place, behind both Rubio and Texas senator Ted Cruz. Analysts attributed Rubio's success in Minnesota to several factors, including the state's caucus format, which tends to favor candidates with strong organizational structures and active, engaged supporters. Additionally, the high proportion of college-educated voters in Minnesota was seen as favorable to Rubio, who tended to perform well with this demographic.[2]

The Minnesota caucus experienced a high voter turnout, with reports of many attending a caucus for the first time. This surge led to organizational difficulties, such as overcrowding and ballot shortages. In some locations, volunteers struggled to manage the influx of participants.[3]

Polling

PollDate(s)RubioCruzTrumpCarsonOthers
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon[4] ± 6.5%Jan. 18–20, 201623%21%18%11%27%
KSTP[5] ± 4.4% Oct. 29–Nov. 2, 201516%4%26%19%35%
PPP[6] ± 5.2%Jul. 30–Aug. 2, 20155%7%18%11%63%
Suffolk[7] ± 10% Apr. 24–28, 2014 8.1%9.2%4.6%78.2%

Results

Florida senator Marco Rubio emerged as the winner of the caucus, securing 41,126 (36.5%) votes, which translated to 17 delegates. Ted Cruz, senator from Texas, came in second with 32,684 (29.0%) votes, earning 13 delegates. Donald Trump, who was leading in most other GOP Super Tuesday states, came in third place in Minnesota with 24,018 (21.3%) votes and received 8 delegates.

2016 Minnesota Republican caucuses results
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
bgcolor=Marco Rubio41,39736.24%17
bgcolor=Ted Cruz33,18129.04%13
bgcolor=Donald Trump24,47321.42%8
bgcolor=Ben Carson8,4227.37%0
bgcolor=John Kasich6,5655.75%0
bgcolor=Write-ins2070.18%0
Total114,245100.00%38
Source: Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Andrews . Wilson . Bloch . Matthew . Bowers . Jeremy . Giratikanon . Tom . Minnesota Caucus Election Results 2016 . The New York Times . 2016-02-01 . 2024-01-16.
  2. News: Cox . Amanda . Katz . Josh . Quealy . Kevin . 2016-03-01 . Who Will Win Super Tuesday? Live Estimates of Tonight's Final Republican Delegate Count . en-US . The New York Times . 2022-06-18 . 0362-4331.
  3. Web site: Pugmire . Tim . Bakst . Brian . Rubio, Sanders score big wins in Minnesota caucuses . MPR News . 2016-03-02 . 2024-01-16.
  4. Web site: January 23, 2016 . Minnesota Poll Results: Presidential race . Star Tribune.
  5. Web site: KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll Results | KSTP TV - Minneapolis and St. Paul . https://web.archive.org/web/20160206164112/http://kstp.com/article/stories/s3952441.shtml . February 6, 2016 .
  6. Web site: Public Policy Polling . 2024-01-16.
  7. Web site: Minnesota Likely Voters . suffolk.edu . https://web.archive.org/web/20141107014432/http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/4_29_2014_marginals.pdf . 7 November 2014.