2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary explained

Election Name:2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary
Country:Michigan
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States presidential election in Michigan#Democratic primary
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary
Next Year:2020
Candidate1:Bernie Sanders
Home State1:Vermont
Delegate Count1:67
Popular Vote1:598,943
Percentage1:49.68%
Map Size:320px
Color1:228B22
Candidate2:Hillary Clinton
Color2:d4aa00
Home State2:New York
Popular Vote2:581,775
Percentage2:48.26%
Delegate Count2:63

The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held a second primary in Mississippi, while the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was a massive upset, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.[1]

Clinton lost Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23% in the general election, against Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Forums and debates

March 2016 debate in Flint

On March 6, 2016 the Democratic Party held a seventh presidential debate at The Whiting at the Flint Cultural Center. Flint, Michigan was chosen as the center of the ongoing Flint water crisis.[2] The debate was hosted by Anderson Cooper and aired on CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. At the end of the debate, Cooper announced a labor union fund had committed $25 million in low-interest loans towards repairing the water system.

March 2016 forum in Detroit

See also: 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums.

The next day, on March 7, 2016, a Town Hall event, was held as the eighth democratic forum. It started at 6:00 p.m. E.S.T., at the Gem Theatre in Detroit, Michigan, and was aired by the Fox News Channel.[3] The forum was moderated by Bret Baier.

Opinion polling

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries.

Results

See also: Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries.

Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
DistrictDelegatesVotes ClintonVotes SandersVotes QualifiedClinton delegatesSanders delegates
1628,86044,35973,21924
2526,09039,83465,92423
3528,44145,28273,72323
4524,92835,59760,52523
5748,62242,75591,37743
6528,26539,15767,42223
7529,18636,01965,20523
8535,20546,96982,17423
9648,57050,90399,47333
10528,31433,71062,02423
11639,73245,05484,78633
12750,15758,892109,04934
13971,23537,028108,26363
14988,49442,608131,10263
Total85581,775598,9431,180,7184144
PLEO17581,775598,9431,180,71889
At Large28581,775598,9431,180,7181414
Gr. Total130581,775598,9431,180,7186367
Total vote1,205,55248.26%49.68%
Source: Michigan Department of State Election results (District 13 and 14 Wayne County) partial

Results by county

CountyClinton%Sanders%OthersTotalsTurnoutMargin
46348.74%45547.89%2694730.60%-0.84%
Alger 38437.07%62260.64%261,03544.61%23.00%
Allegan 3,51138.01%5,56960.28%169,05011.28%22.29%
Alpena 1,10244.26%1,34754.10%262,47836.51%9.89%
Antrim 86736.09%1,49162.07%392,40032.72%26.00%
Arenac 59546.12%66351.40%241,28535.89%5.29%
Baraga 27040.36%37155.46%2566937.93%15.10%
Barry 1,73635.41%3,07862.79%744,89131.62%27.44%
Bay 5,93745.98%6,36349.28%55512,85847.83%3.31%
Benzie 85333.48%1,65064.76%432,54944.66%31.27%
6,69851.54%5,96845.93%28512,95436.25%-5.64%
Branch 1,01043.44%1,24653.59%592,31827.23%10.18%
Calhoun 5,23146.36%5,81251.51%20111,24741.28%5.17%
Cass 1,65748.37%1,68449.15%693,41331.70%0.79%
Charlevoix 1,04436.73%1,73060.87%582,83536.23%24.20%
Cheboygan 1,01042.62%1,31855.61%362,36734.21%13.01%
Chippewa 1,23039.83%1,79358.06%553,08138.49%18.27%
Clare 1,09045.76%1,23952.02%432,37535.01%6.27%
Clinton 3,40242.16%4,49655.72%1508,05138.76%13.59%
Crawford 49442.33%63154.07%361,16433.90%11.77%
Delta 1,40943.34%1,70552.45%1223,23939.53%9.14%
Dickinson 90843.51%1,07551.51%992,08530.20%8.01%
Eaton 5,86643.99%7,12553.43%29813,29244.13%9.47%
Emmet 1,36933.91%2,58964.13%684,02914.48%30.28%
31,36651.75%28,17146.48%94660,48659.79%-5.28%
Gladwin 98546.33%1,08350.94%462,11733.72%
Gogebic 67844.90%79052.32%381,50946.65%
Grand Traverse 4,14033.19%8,09164.86%20612,44041.56%
Gratiot 1,18538.87%1,81259.43%423,04238.52%
Hillsdale 97740.17%1,38056.74%592,41924.31%
Houghton 1,10934.79%2,03963.96%353,18641.79%
Huron 1,05045.99%1,18451.86%362,27329.30%
Ingham 17,88443.49%22,58054.91%56241,02959.65%
Ionia 1,49133.99%2,81264.11%624,36834.63%
Iosco 1,07746.08%1,20251.43%542,33637.45%
Iron 52748.30%54650.05%181,09436.11%
Isabella 2,03233.19%4,02465.72%556,11449.53%
Jackson 5,28842.72%6,80454.97%23012,32537.16%
Kalamazoo 12,61137.92%20,16260.63%40833,18450.40%
Kalkaska 59035.53%98761.11%301,61030.46%
Kent 26,03236.86%43,44461.52%98770,506
Keweenaw 12839.75%18858.39%6325
54850.14%51447.03%301,095
Lapeer 3,32540.39%4,65056.49%2218,199
Leelanau 1,45937.67%2,36060.93%443,866
Lenawee 3,45543.73%4,25653.87%1637,877
Livingston 6,70538.14%10,43559.35%39617,539
Luce 16735.46%29161.78%11472
Mackinac 50042.77%63354.15%291,165
47,59948.80%46,24847.42%2,53471,008
Manistee 1,12039.63%1,64658.24%512,820
Marquette 3,18835.59%5,53061.74%2038,924
Mason 1,22340.56%1,74157.24%382,772
Mecosta 1,17338.88%1,76858.60%633,007
83548.72%80546.97%641,707
Midland 3,09739.81%4,56858.71%887,756
Missaukee 40139.08%59157.60%331,028
Monroe 6,71647.25%6,84248.13%59514,156
Montcalm 1,68136.85%2,76260.54%
Montmorency 39248.70%38347.58%
Muskegon 8,80744.53%10,45652.86%
Newaygo 1,29536.49%2,15560.72%
Oakland 92,30051.38%84,16346.85%
Oceana 79138.21%1,23759.76%
Ogemaw 86246.24%92649.68%
Ontonagon 32744.37%36249.12%
Osceola 67040.39%95357.44%
Oscoda 27344.90%31551.81%
Otsego 78637.97%1,22859.5%
Ottawa 7,47334.39%13,95964.24%
Presque Isle 59247.70%60648.83%
Roscommon 1,16347.33%1,18748.31%
Saginaw 12,49055.32%9,67642.86%
St. Clair 5,97340.96%8,34756.54%
St. Joseph 1,38237.66%2,21960.46%
Sanilac 1,16042.00%1,48553.77%
Schoolcraft 31245.75%34550.59%
Shiawassee 3,03139.38%4,45257.84%
Tuscola 1,98442.65%2,53254.43%
Van Buren 2,48439.73%3,65658.48%
Washtenaw 30,02243.70%38,06255.41%
Wayne 165,81960.11%105,48738.24%
Wexford 90932.95%1,79364.99%
Total 581,77548.26%598,94349.68%

Results by congressional district

DistrictSandersClinton
59.09%38.44%
59.24%38.80%
60.38%37.92%
57.48%40.26%
45.77%52.05%
57.03%41.17%
53.72%43.53%
56.00%41.97%
49.75%47.47%
52.32%43.95%
52.11%45.95%
53.09%45.22%
33.74%64.92%
32.10%66.66%

Analysis

Bernie Sanders's narrow, one-point win in Michigan was seen as a major upset for the Clinton campaign, since Bernie Sanders had never led a poll in that state. Many theories about the failure of the Michigan polling circulated throughout the media, with most centering on pollsters' erroneous assumptions about the composition of the electorate stemming from the 2008 primary in Michigan not having been contested due to an impasse between the state party and DNC.[73][74][75] Although Clinton expanded her delegate lead with a lopsided victory in Mississippi that same day, some journalists suggested Sanders' upset might presage her defeat in other delegate-rich Midwestern Rust Belt states,[76] such as Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, who voted a week later on March 15, along with North Carolina and Florida, where Clinton was more clearly favored.[77][78]

Sanders beat Clinton among white voters in Michigan, who made up 70% of the electorate, by a margin of 56–42, a margin perhaps larger than the Clinton campaign had anticipated. Independents, who made up 27% of the electorate, backed Sanders 71–28. As was true in other primaries, Clinton won the votes of women and African Americans, but Sanders's margins with Independents and rural voters, mostly working class whites who felt disaffected and disenfranchised by trade deals championed by Hillary Clinton and her husband, were not able to be surpassed, even by Clinton's large leads in major cities such as Detroit and Flint. Among voters who said their primary concern was the U.S. economy, Sanders won 56–40, even though Clinton had hammered him on his 2009 vote against the auto-bailout which she believed would resonate in a state whose economy depended upon manufacturing and the auto industry. Among unions, Sanders had beaten Clinton 49–46, even though in previous contests union households had broken for Clinton.[4] Hand-wringing began on the Clinton side, with the campaign worrying they turned their attention to the general election too soon, as Hillary Clinton had pleaded "the sooner I could become your nominee, the more I could begin to turn my attention to the Republicans."[5]

Sanders thanked supporters after his surprise win, "What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign, the people's revolution that we're talking about, the political revolution that we're talking about, is strong in every part of the country [...] And, frankly, we believe our strongest areas are yet to happen."

Clinton went on to win the next five states in the Democratic primary, including Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.

Alongside Wisconsin, Michigan was among the two "Blue Wall" states won by Bernie Sanders in the primary election that Donald Trump would ultimately flip in the 2016 United States Presidential Election.

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Election 2016 - Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary. realclearpolitics.com. 2016-05-28.
  2. News: Flint gets Democratic presidential debate on March 6. February 3, 2016. Detroit News. February 3, 2016.
  3. Web site: Feldman . Josh . Fox News Will Hold Democratic Town Hall Next Week; Only One Candidate Set to Appear . MSN . 2016-03-04 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20160307003316/http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fox-news-will-hold-democratic-town-hall-next-week-only-one-candidate-set-to-appear/ar-BBqjnZC?ocid=spartanntp . 2016-03-07 .
  4. Web site: 2016 Election Center. CNN. 2016-09-25.
  5. Web site: What went wrong for Hillary Clinton?. MJ. Lee. Jeff. Zeleny. Dana. Bash. Dan. Merica. CNN. 2016-09-25.