See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.
| Election Name: | 2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election |
| Country: | Massachusetts |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2014 Massachusetts gubernatorial election |
| Previous Year: | 2014 |
| Next Election: | 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election |
| Next Year: | 2022 |
| Turnout: | 60.17% 9.33%[1] |
| Image1: | File:Charlie Baker official photo (3x4a).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Charlie Baker |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Running Mate1: | Karyn Polito |
| Popular Vote1: | 1,781,341 |
| Percentage1: | 66.60% |
| Nominee2: | Jay Gonzalez |
| Running Mate2: | Quentin Palfrey |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 885,770 |
| Percentage2: | 33.12% |
| Governor | |
| Before Election: | Charlie Baker |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Charlie Baker |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Republican Governor Charlie Baker and Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito sought reelection to a second term in office, facing Democratic challengers Jay Gonzalez and Quentin Palfrey, respectively. Candidates were selected in the primary election held on September 4, 2018.
This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Despite Massachusetts's Democratic lean at the presidential level, Charlie Baker retained high approval ratings and was expected to safely win re-election. Shortly after polls closed at 8 p.m. local time, the Associated Press declared the race in favor of incumbents Baker and Polito.[2] Shortly after 9 p.m. location time, Gonzalez conceded the election.[3]
Baker was re-elected with the highest vote total in the history of Massachusetts gubernatorial elections and by the widest margin since Bill Weld was re-elected governor in 1994. He won many of the Commonwealth's most populated cities, including Worcester, New Bedford, and Springfield.[4] Baker almost won Boston, losing it by only around 3,000 votes, an extraordinary showing for a statewide Republican candidate in a major city. Baker also carried every county in the state.[5]
As of, this is the last time Republicans won a statewide election in Massachusetts.
Charlie Baker was elected in 2014 by a slim margin over then-Attorney General Martha Coakley; however, he was consistently rated as one of the most popular governors in the country.[6] Some Democrats, including Congressman Mike Capuano and Speaker of the House Bob DeLeo publicly speculated they may vote for Baker over the eventual Democratic nominee.[7] Speculated candidates such as Attorney General Maura Healey, Congressman Joe Kennedy, former State Senator Dan Wolf, and Boston Mayor Marty Walsh all declined to be candidates, leaving no prominent Democrats to challenge Baker, which was seen as a necessary prerequisite to mount a formidable challenge to him.
Because Evan Falchuk received more than 3% of the vote in the 2014 gubernatorial election, the United Independent Party gained official status.[8] Falchuck had stated that he would "certainly" run for office in 2018.[9] In 2016 however, the UIP lost its official party status after it failed to register 1% of Massachusetts voters as members.[10] Falchuk later left the UIP and registered as a Democrat in early 2017.[11] [12]
There was some concern amongst the Republican Party that Baker was too moderate, and there were talks of challenging him with a more conservative opponent in the primaries. GOP state committeeman Robert Cappucci told the Boston Herald that if Baker "shuns conservatives [...] there will be 100 percent an effort to try to find a conservative, viable candidate to challenge him in 2018 for governor". David Kopacz, the president of the Massachusetts Republican Assembly, also stated that Baker might face a conservative challenger in 2018.[13]
Following his 2016 election, Barnstable County Commissioner Ron Beaty, who once was tried and convicted for threatening the life of President George H. W. Bush,[14] had been making local and state headlines. He proposed a "shark mitigation strategy" to combat the growing presence of sharks near Cape Cod beaches by baiting and shooting them, which was rejected for consideration by the commission chairman. He also mulled a primary run against his state representative, Randy Hunt, after Hunt parked in his Barnstable County Courthouse parking spot. In September 2017 he announced he was in the process of changing the purpose of his campaign committee from a county to a statewide office. He cited the Governor's criticisms of President Donald Trump and his willingness to work with Democrats as his inspiration to run. On December 8, 2017, Scott Lively announced his campaign.[15]
On December 13, 2017, Beaty stated he was no longer considering a run against Baker.[16] Scott Lively, an evangelical pastor, challenged Baker and received more than the 15% of delegate votes necessary at the state convention to qualify for ballot access. Baker won the endorsement of the party by an overwhelming margin.[17]
Baker ultimately won the nomination, but not without Lively securing 36 percent of the primary vote, leading to speculation that Baker's more moderate disposition and opposition to President Trump might have damaged his general election chances with Republican base voters.[18]
In November 2014, after interviewing over a dozen Democratic operatives, strategists, and activists, Joshua Miller of The Boston Globe wrote that the party would be looking for a young, fresh candidate who could appeal to the party's progressive base. He identified Attorney General Maura Healey as being "the first name on many Democratic lists".[22] Samantha Lachman of The Huffington Post also identified Healey as a potential candidate for governor in 2018 or in a future United States Senate race.[23]
As of July 2017, the declared candidates were relatively unknown to the state's voters.[24] Their identification by Democratic voters was bolstered by addressing the 2017 state Democratic Convention, which saw its largest attendance in years, of around 3,000 delegates.[25]
On April 26, 2018, Setti Warren announced via Facebook that he was withdrawing from the race due to financial concerns. He stated he would not endorse either of his former opponents until the nomination was won.[26]
At the Massachusetts Democratic Convention in June, party delegates endorsed Gonzalez and Palfrey, but Bob Massie and Jimmy Tingle also surpassed the 15% threshold for ballot access by comfortable margins.[27] A poll from late June conducted by WBUR and MassInc. indicated that the contest for the Democratic nomination in the gubernatorial race was a toss-up, with Massie and Gonzalez being separated by a percentage smaller than the margin of error.
Gonzalez and Palfrey went on to win their respective nominations generously (winning almost every municipality in the state) and headed into the general election to face their Republican counterparts.
| Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn | |||||||
| Charlie Baker | Jay Gonzalez | ||||||
| 1 | October 9, 2018 | WSBK-TV | Jon Keller | C-SPAN | |||
| 2 | October 17, 2018 | WGBH-TV | Jim Braude Margery Eagan | C-SPAN | |||
| 3 | November 1, 2018 | WCVB-TV | WCVB-TV | ||||
All individuals belong to the nominee's party unless otherwise specified.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[49] | October 26, 2018 | ||
| The Washington Post[50] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| FiveThirtyEight[51] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| Rothenberg Political Report[52] | November 1, 2018 | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| RealClearPolitics[54] | November 4, 2018 | ||
| Daily Kos[55] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| Fox News[56] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| Politico[57] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| Governing[58] | November 5, 2018 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Charlie Baker (R) | Jay Gonzalez (D) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC | October 25–28, 2018 | 502 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 68% | 25% | 2% | 2% | |
| Suffolk University | October 24–28, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 65% | 26% | – | 8% | |
| Western New England University | October 10–27, 2018 | 402 LV | ± 5.0% | align=center | 65% | 27% | – | 7% | |
| 485 RV | ± 4.0% | align=center | 64% | 25% | – | 10% | |||
| UMass Lowell | October 1–7, 2018 | 485 LV | ± 5.6% | align=center | 66% | 27% | 5% | 3% | |
| 791 RV | ± 4.4% | align=center | 65% | 26% | 6% | 2% | |||
| MassINC | September 17–21, 2018 | 506 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 68% | 24% | 1% | 6% | |
| Suffolk University | September 13–17, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 55% | 28% | – | 17% | |
| Suffolk University | June 8–12, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 52% | 22% | – | 25% | |
| MassINC | May 22–26, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 60% | 20% | 1% | 19% | |
| MassINC | March 16–18, 2018 | 504 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 60% | 21% | 2% | 15% | |
| MassINC | November 9–12, 2017 | 503 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 59% | 19% | 3% | 18% | |
| MassINC | June 19–22, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 55% | 22% | 1% | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Charlie Baker (R) | Setti Warren (D) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC | March 16–18, 2018 | 504 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 58% | 24% | 3% | 13% | |
| MassINC | November 9–12, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 58% | 24% | 2% | 15% | |
| MassINC | June 19–22, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 53% | 26% | 1% | 17% | |
| UMass Amherst | September 15–20, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.1% | align=center | 40% | 17% | – | 36% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Charlie Baker (R) | Maura Healey (D) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC | June 19–22, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 48% | 36% | 13% | |
| UMass Amherst | September 15–20, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.1% | align=center | 43% | 25% | 29% | |
| Gravis Marketing | July 12–13, 2016 | 901 | ± 3.3% | align=center | 56% | 30% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Charlie Baker (R) | Joseph P. Kennedy III (D) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Amherst | September 15–20, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.1% | 33% | 33% | 29% | ||
| Gravis Marketing | July 12–13, 2016 | 901 | ± 3.3% | align=center | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Charlie Baker (R) | Bob Massie (D) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | June 8–12, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 54% | 21% | – | 25% | |
| MassINC | May 22–26, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 60% | 20% | 1% | 17% | |
| MassINC | March 16–18, 2018 | 504 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 59% | 22% | 2% | 16% | |
| MassINC | November 9–12, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 60% | 21% | 2% | 16% | |
| MassINC | June 19–22, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 55% | 25% | 1% | 17% |
| 2018 United States gubernatorial election in Massachusetts (by county) [59] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Baker % | Baker # | Gonzalez % | Gonzalez # | Others % | Others # | Total # | ||
| 71.7% | 85,726 | 25.2% | 30,169 | 3.0% | 3,599 | 119,494 | |||
| 51.6% | 28,331 | 45.5% | 25,030 | 2.9% | 1,592 | 54,953 | |||
| 68.5% | 132,371 | 28.1% | 54,280 | 3.3% | 6,458 | 193,109 | |||
| 54.1% | 5,556 | 43.5% | 4,470 | 2.5% | 253 | 10,279 | |||
| 69.2% | 219,522 | 27.4% | 86,893 | 3.4% | 10,849 | 317,264 | |||
| 54.6% | 18,263 | 43.4% | 14,507 | 2.0% | 670 | 33,440 | |||
| 69.1% | 109,952 | 27.5% | 43,806 | 3.4% | 5,416 | 159,174 | |||
| 52.0% | 37,272 | 45.6% | 32,667 | 2.5% | 1,764 | 71,703 | |||
| 60.7% | 411,687 | 36.3% | 246,197 | 3.0% | 20,294 | 678,178 | |||
| 56.8% | 2,388 | 41.6% | 1,750 | 1.6% | 67 | 4,205 | |||
| 67.1% | 209,318 | 29.7% | 92,709 | 3.2% | 10,125 | 312,152 | |||
| 72.4% | 164,438 | 23.9% | 54,303 | 3.7% | 8,472 | 227,213 | |||
| 49.1% | 125,247 | 48.0% | 122,249 | 2.9% | 7,346 | 254,842 | |||
| 73.0% | 231,270 | 24.2% | 76,740 | 2.7% | 8,649 | 316,659 | |||
Baker won 8 of 9 congressional districts, all of which elected Democrats.[60]
| District | Baker | Gonzalez | Representative | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 67.24% | 32.76% | Richard Neal | ||
| 2nd | 68.85% | 31.15% | |||
| 3rd | 71.3% | 28.7% | Lori Trahan | ||
| 4th | 69.49% | 30.51% | |||
| 5th | 60.39% | 39.61% | |||
| 6th | 73.52% | 26.48% | Seth Moulton | ||
| 7th | 43.78% | 56.22% | |||
| 8th | 68.43% | 31.53% | Stephen Lynch | ||
| 9th | 73.19% | 26.81% | |||