Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies explained

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, now called Magellan Strategies, is a survey research, data mining and campaign consulting firm located in Louisville, Colorado. The company's clients include Republican Party candidates, conservative political organizations, non-profit organizations, trade associations, businesses and local governments. The firm was founded in November 2006. Using quantitative and qualitative survey research methods, the firm helps Republican candidates, conservative organizations, trade associations and governments better understand voter opinion. In addition to survey research, the company provides predictive voter modeling, voter data analysis and campaign consulting services. Magellan is a member of the Marketing Research Association, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, and the American Association of Political Consultants. Some of the firm's clients include the Republican National Committee and Americans for Prosperity.

Survey weighting methodology

Magellan Strategies maintains and uses a national database of registered voters to determine their survey sampling weights by gender, age group, party registration and race. The firm does take into account past exit polling for a state or district when determining final survey weighting, but the principals of the firm consider exit polling data secondary and much less accurate than aggregated vote history from a complete and accurate voter registration database with solid vote history.

Public polling and media references

2017 references

2016 election cycle

2015 Colorado legislative session

Magellan Strategies staff testifies in front of Colorado Senate Transportation Committee regarding Colorado voter opinion of a proposed $3.5 billion bond measure to fund transportation need in the state.[22]

2012 election cycle

In mid-November 2011, a Magellan poll conducted for the New Hampshire Journal surprisingly reported that Newt Gingrich had surged in New Hampshire, which hosts the first Presidential nominating primary. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney had long led polls in New Hampshire, yet the Magellan Poll seemingly revealed he had lost a quarter of his support. The Magellan Poll reported that Romney had 29% of the support of surveyed voters while Gingrich was in a virtual statistical tie with 27%. By contrast, a Bloomberg News poll conducted less than a week before the Magellan Poll put Romney's support in New Hampshire at 40% and Gingrich at 11%. A story in The New York Times on December 16 reported "Signs of trouble emerged for Mr. Romney in New Hampshire on Nov. 18, the day a poll in The New Hampshire Journal showed for the first time that Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich were essentially tied, defying months of data that had suggested Mr. Romney’s lead in the state was unassailable. His aides, who had considered the state a political firewall, were suddenly spooked, said two people who have advised the campaign. The campaign dug into the numbers, and found what they considered flaws, but also unmistakable evidence of an ascent by Gingrich. A person who has advised Romney in the past said, "That rattled them".[23]

2011 election cycle

The Political editor of the Denver Post acknowledges Magellan Strategies for correctly predicting the outcome of the special election in New York's 9th Congressional District to replace Anthony Weiner.[24]

2010 election cycle

Magellan was criticized for making an inaccurate prediction that Tom Tancredo would win the 2010 Colorado governors election. Tom Tancredo lost to Democrat John Hickenlooper on election day, November 2. Hickenlooper resoundingly beat Tancredo by a margin of 51% to 36%. Editorial page editor Curtis Hubbard of The Denver Post gave Magellan his "Agony of Defeat" award for the worst poll in the gubernatorial race.[25]

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Eagle County may spend up to $3 million on workforce housing projects VailDaily.com. www.vaildaily.com. en. 2017-01-24.
  2. News: How Colorado resisted the siren of Donald Trump. 2017-01-21. The Colorado Independent. en-US. 2017-01-24.
  3. Web site: What's the political state of Colorado after the election?. 2016-11-10. FOX31 Denver. 2016-11-10.
  4. News: A predicted soul-searching by Colorado Republicans post-Trump now belongs to Democrats. Colorado Springs Gazette. 2016-11-10.
  5. News: Coloradans vote to "Raise the Bar" beyond their reach. 2016-11-09. The Colorado Independent. en-US. 2016-11-10.
  6. Web site: In Colorado, a Battle for the Millennial Vote.
  7. News: As Ballots Continue To Roll In, Colorado Enters The Election Home Stretch. Colorado Public Radio. 2016-11-01.
  8. Web site: Millions of people have voted, and Democrats are showing strong signs in key states. Times. Los Angeles. Los Angeles Times. 2016-10-27.
  9. News: Post-ObamaCare Preview in Colorado. 2016-10-21. The Wall Street Journal. 0099-9660. 2016-10-25.
  10. News: Obama Assists 150 State Candidates, Targeting G.O.P.'s Grip on Legislatures. Davey. Monica. 2016-10-23. Shear. Michael D.. The New York Times. 0362-4331. 2016-10-24.
  11. Web site: Summit County voter registration down, but Democrats coming out on top SummitDaily.com. www.summitdaily.com. 2016-10-24.
  12. News: Coffman and Carroll debate on 9NEWS. TEGNA. KUSA. en-US. 2016-10-24.
  13. Web site: Purple State Memo: Darryl Glenn questions climate change, sticks to the right in final days – The Denver Post. 2016-10-20.
  14. Web site: Colorado GOP in turmoil following Donald Trump's comments on women – The Denver Post. 2016-10-11.
  15. Web site: Recent Video. PBS NewsHour. en-US. 2016-10-04.
  16. Web site: New poll: Colorado voters favor minimum wage hike and presidential primary – The Denver Post. 2016-10-04.
  17. Web site: Colorado's Caucuses won't draw attention that Iowa's do. Hernandez. Lance. 2016-02-02. en-US. 2016-10-04.
  18. Web site: Donald Trump's path to victory. . 2016-10-04.
  19. Web site: Third Parties See Increased Interest From Colorado Voters Seeking Options. 2016-10-04.
  20. News: BOOM: New Polls Show Hillary Losing in Ohio, Nevada..and Colorado?. Benson. Guy. Townhall. 2016-10-06.
  21. News: Pence appeals to Evangelicals, Cruz supporters at Colorado Springs town hall. Koen. Andy. 2016-10-06.
  22. Web site: Colorado road funding bill gets first approval — but hits troubling opposition - Denver Business Journal. Denver Business Journal. 2016-10-04.
  23. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/15/us/politics/changing-tack-romney-calls-gingrich-zany.html?pagewanted=1&_r=3&hp/ In a Tactical Shift, Romney Trains Sights on Gingrich
  24. Web site: Magellan gets its groove back. The Spot. 2016-10-05.
  25. Web site: Podium time for the pollsters. Hubbard. Curtis. The Denver Post. 19 November 2011.

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