List of marginal seats before the 2015 United Kingdom general election explained

This article describes the likely or potential target seats at the United Kingdom general election of 2015 that was held on 7 May 2015.

In January 2013, Labour published its list of 106 target seats for the next election.^[1] UKIP's list of 12 target seats was reported in August 2014,^[2] and others external to UKIP have highlighted seats where UKIP may be strongest.^[3] A list of Conservative non-target seats was deduced in February 2015.^[4] The Green Party of England & Wales describe having 12 target constituencies, including their one current seat.^{[5] [6]}

Below are the most marginal seats listed by the party in second for those parties which won seats at the 2005 or 2010 general elections, ranked by the percentage swing required. These may not be the seats where parties choose to target their resources. Opinion polling in individual constituencies is also another indicator for possible target seats.

List by party

Conservative

Conservative target seats^[7]
Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2010		Swing required	Winning party 2015
1	Hampstead and Kilburn		0.04%
2	Bolton West		0.10%
3	Solihull		0.16%
4	Southampton Itchen		0.22%
5	Mid Dorset and North Poole		0.29%
6	Wirral South		0.66%
7	Derby North		0.68%
8	Wells		0.72%
9	Dudley North		0.84%
10	Great Grimsby		1.08%
11	Morley and Outwood		1.13%
12	Telford		1.19%
13	Walsall North		1.37%
14	St Austell and Newquay		1.39%
15	Somerton and Frome		1.50%
16	Birmingham Edgbaston		1.54%
17	Sutton and Cheam		1.66%
18	Halifax		1.69%
19	Newcastle-under-Lyme		1.80%
20	Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland		1.82%
21	Wakefield		1.82%
22	St. Ives		1.87%
23	Plymouth Moor View		1.91%
24	Gedling		1.93%
25	Eltham		1.98%
26	Walsall South		2.15%
27	Nottingham South		2.17%

Labour

Labour target seats^[8]
Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2010		Swing required	Winning party 2015
1	North Warwickshire		0.05%
2	Thurrock		0.10%
3	Hendon		0.12%
4	Cardiff North		0.20%
5	Sherwood		0.22%
6	Norwich South		0.32%
7	Stockton South		0.33%
8	Broxtowe		0.37%
9	Lancaster and Fleetwood		0.39%
10	Bradford East		0.45%
11	Amber Valley		0.58%
12	Waveney		0.75%
13	Wolverhampton South West		0.85%
14	Morecambe and Lunesdale		1.00%
15	Carlisle		1.01%
16	Stroud		1.12%
17	Weaver Vale		1.13%
18	Lincoln		1.16%
19	Brighton Pavilion		1.21%
20	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport		1.31%
21	Dewsbury		1.41%
22	Warrington South		1.42%
23	Brent Central		1.48%
24	Bedford		1.50%
25	Brighton Kemptown		1.56%
26	Pudsey		1.69%
27			1.82%

Liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrats target seats^[9]
Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2010		Swing required	Winning party 2015
1	Camborne and Redruth		0.08%
2	Oldham East and Saddleworth^[10]		0.12%
3	Oxford West and Abingdon		0.16%
4	Ashfield		0.20%
5	Sheffield Central		0.20%
6	Edinburgh South		0.36%
7	Truro and Falmouth		0.45%
8	Newton Abbot		0.55%
9	Chesterfield		0.60%
10	Swansea West		0.71%
11	Kingston upon Hull North		0.96%
12	Rochdale		0.97%
13	Harrogate and Knaresborough		0.98%
14	Watford		1.29%
15	Hampstead and Kilburn		1.51%
16	Montgomeryshire		1.75%
17	Edinburgh North and Leith		1.82%
18	St. Albans		2.19%
19	Newport East		2.39%
20	Weston-super-Mare		2.56%
21	Hereford and Herefordshire South		2.57%
22	Torridge and West Devon		2.68%
23	Winchester		2.73%
24	Northampton North		3.09%
25	South East Cornwall		3.25%
26	Bristol North West		3.25%
27	City of Durham		3.32%

Northern Ireland

See also

• List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election
• List of marginal seats before the 2019 United Kingdom general election
• List of marginal seats before the 2017 United Kingdom general election

Notes and References

1. Web site: List of Labour's 106 target seats for 2015 . Politicshome.com . 3 May 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130119211534/http://politicshome.com/uk/article/69287/list_of_labour%E2%80%99s_106_target_seats_for_2015.html . 19 January 2013 . dead .
2. News: Ukip to target Tory ministers' seats. 26 August 2014. Telegraph.co.uk. Holehouse. Matthew.
3. Web site: REVOLT ON THE LEFT Labour's UKIP problem and how it can be overcome. Fabian Society. Marcus. Roberts.
4. Web site: Leaked list shows Tories are not competing in five likely marginals. May2015: 2015 General Election Guide. 7 March 2015.
5. Web site: Will you pledge to vote Green?. 7 March 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150309004622/http://pledge.greenparty.org.uk/. 9 March 2015. dead.
6. Web site: The Granola Pact: is there a rift between Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas?. 7 March 2015.
7. Web site: CONSERVATIVE TARGET SEATS . ukpollingreport.co.uk . 22 September 2013.
8. Web site: Labour Targets. ukpollingreport.co.uk.
9. Web site: LIBERAL DEMOCRAT TARGET SEATS . ukpollingreport.co.uk . 22 September 2013.
10. As compared to the 2010 general election result, not the 2011 by-election result.